Free Treasure Trove of Rational Self-Education

F.A. Hayek Interviewed By John O'Sullivan from FEE on Vimeo
The best education is the one you provide for yourself. The Internet is proving to be an invaluable provider of educational materials. Thanks to SimoleonSense blog, I recently discovered the FEE (Foundation for Economic Education) channel of videos on Vimeo. These videos come from the venerable nonprofit educational foundation, FEE, located in Irvington, NY. Books published and distributed by FEE were pivotal in the breakthrough educational period of Al Fin, as he made the important transition from natural born sheep to radical contrarian.

I should remind you that there will be no natural-born sheep among next level humans. And needless to say, there will be no Obama zombies -- who are infinitely less capable of thinking for themselves than natural-born sheep.

The power structures of the world are intent on keeping as many persons in the helpless, brain-dead state as possible. It is what your upbringing and education -- not to mention your socialisation among your peers -- has conditioned you to be. Only a "strong move to the light" will allow you to pull yourself clear of the bog of mindlessness in which most of humanity is mired. The light of reason, that is.

FEE is only one tool out of many, but it is an extremely useful and valuable tool. Pick it up, and use it well.

Shadow Economy to the Rescue?

Even in developed countries like the United States, as much as 10 percent is in the so-called shadow economy. But when times are hard, the figure can rise to as much as 40 percent. In times of crisis, people are very creative in looking for ways and means of making both ends meet. _MT

By the time Americans tally all of the local, state, and federal taxes they must pay, they might easily find that they are paying over 60% of their hard-won income to the bottomless pit of an insatiable bureaucracy. The cleverer ones may very well begin to consider alternatives.

The size of the shadow economy varies from region to region. In northern Europe and Scandinavia it represents between 10 and 18 percent of official GDP. In Mediterranean countries such as Portugal and Italy, the sector makes up 20 to 25 percent.

Many former Communist EU countries have shadow sectors in the Mediterranean range. But in Estonia, Latvia, Romania and Bulgaria the estimate clocks in at 36 to 39 percent.

The figures for EU neighbours can be much higher. In Belarus and Moldova, around half of economic activity bypasses the state. In Ukraine, about 57 percent. In Georgia, 68 percent.

The existence of a shadow economy up to the 25 percent mark can improve ordinary people's quality of life, the Austrian academic believes. _BW

Certainly the use of barter will increase. Bolder communities will explore the use of alternative currencies, although in the current quasi-fascist environment one must be very cautious of the IRS, Homeland Security, BATF, and other corrupt and hyper-zealous units of the Obama / Pelosi reich.

Corruption within the US government is growing, perhaps eventually to rival corruption levels in the third world. Should the O / P reich continue to ravage the productive sectors of the economy for much longer, the damage will no doubt be deep and irrevocable.

Consider the ways in which you can protect yourselves and your loved ones from the governmental wrecking ball. Your clear thinking and timely actions may prevent the worst of what is coming.

As the Sun Weakens, the Earth Cools

You may be aware that the sun is in a deep solar minimum, with an ultra-low sunspot count. Besides sunspot number, the sun is behaving strangely in other ways.

"Lately, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have become very slow, so slow that they have to be dragged away from the sun by the solar wind," says researcher Angelos Vourlidas of the Naval Research Lab. Here is an example from April 11th:

Each second in the SOHO animation corresponds to an hour or more of real time. "The speed of the CME was only 240 km/s," says Vourlidas. "The solar wind speed is about 300 km/s, so the CME is actually being dragged."

Vourlidas has examined thousands of CMEs recorded by SOHO over the past 13 years, and he's rarely seen such plodding explosions. In active times, CMEs can blast away from the sun faster than 1000 km/s. Even during the solar minimum of 1996, CMEs often revved up to 500 or 600 km/s. "Almost all the CMEs we've seen since the end of April 2008, however, are very slow, less than 300 km/s."

Is this just another way of saying "the sun is very quiet?" Or do slow-motion CMEs represent a new and interesting phenomena? The jury is still out. One thing is clear: solar minimum is more interesting than we thought. _spaceweather_via_FreshBilge

Meanwhile, back on Earth, the climate is getting distinctly colder. March 2009 was the coldest March this millenium, and April is on track to be even colder compared to other Aprils.

The sun is in a deep slumber. Arctic sea ice is growing ever thicker since 2007, and Antarctic sea ice extent is growing alarmingly. More reputable scientists are disputing the IPCC's myopic anti-scientific fascism.

More up to the minute news about the dismantling of the faux crisis of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) here and here.

Still Waiting for Space Solar Power, 40 Years On

Back in 1968 Peter Glaser detailed an ambitious plan for energy independence, using solar power from orbiting photovoltaic arrays. The technology for large-scale solar panel manufacture wasn't ready for anthing that ambitious back then, although heavy space launch infrastructure was in much better shape. Regardless, the idea is being resurrected by a startup company:

Now Solaren Corporation, a startup based in Manhattan Beach, CA, is trying to get the idea off the ground. It's working with the California utility Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), which intends to enter into a power-purchase agreement with the company. If the agreement is approved by regulators, starting in 2016, the utility will purchase 200 megawatts of power from Solaren at an undisclosed price--that is, if the startup can get a system into space and working by then. The company has already selected a site in California for the receiving station; it hasn't said exactly where, but it will be close to a PG&E substation and won't require long-distance transmission lines.

Solaren hasn't released many details about the system. CEO Gary Spirnak says that it's conceptually the same as communications satellite technology: it uses solar panels to generate electricity, which gets sent to Earth in the form of radio waves, which are received by antennas on Earth. In a Q & A published by PG&E, he said that the design is "a significant departure from past efforts," so it will be economically feasible. The first system will reportedly be able to generate 1,000 megawatts--about the size of many conventional power plants. The company will need to raise billions of dollars to construct the plant. Right now, it only has 10 employees. _TechReview

More information at Next Big Future, and at New Energy and Fuel

From Al Fin Energy

One Family Goes John Galt

He hunts deer and turkeys. Instead of buying books and going to movies, they visit the library weekly. For Christmas, they got canning gear so they can preserve the food they grow.

"The earn, spend, earn era has come to an end for us," he says on truenorthfound.blogspot.com, their blog. "The idea of living a fuller, more satisfying life seems simple to us now. ... Money, cash, credit, maybe they don't matter. Maybe, just maybe, it is those things that impede our ability to be truly happy."...They stopped using credit cards and they're trying to build up savings. "I'm working harder than ever," Patrick says, "but it's more satisfying work and ... it's much easier to sleep at night." _USAToday

It seems to be easy for tenured government-dependent clowns and incompetents to laugh at the "flyover country fools" who actually work for a living, obey the rules, and pay their taxes on April 15 -- so the tenured clowns can live it up and laugh at the "tea baggers." But mainstream freeloaders of one corrupt bureaucracy or another should have been paying attention instead of just laughing at the protestors. The people holding those signs are ordinary people who never considered protesting until now. Something drove them to that point of decision. And now they are considering a lot more options than simple protest. Many of them are considering cutting back on their economic activity. Cutting waaaaaaayyy back! As in John Galt back. Call it the "Obama effect."

Hard times are creating economic survivalists such as the Wojtowicz family who are paring expenses by becoming more self-sufficient.

Reviving "almost lost" skills and preparing for tough days make people feel more in control, says Charlotte Richert, consumer sciences educator for Oklahoma State University's Extension Service in Tulsa County.

Karen Gulliver, MBA program chair at Argosy University in Eagan, Minn., expects the movement to grow as the sour economy forces people to reassess priorities. People are asking, "Do I really want to be 100% vulnerable with no self-sufficiency skills if something happens?" she says.

Some signs of the trend:

•Stockpiling. When the stock market drops, orders surge for freeze-dried food, survival kits and emergency supplies, says Nitro-Pak president Harry Weyandt. One best seller: a $3,375 food reserve that feeds four people for three months.

•Gardening. Sales of vegetable seeds and transplants are up 30% from 2008 at W. Atlee Burpee, the USA's largest seed company. The National Gardening Association says 7 million more households will grow food this year than in 2008 — a 19% rise. A book on building root cellars is the top seller at Johnny's Selected Seeds in Winslow, Maine, supervisor Joann Matuzas says.

•Canning. Jarden Corp. says sales of its Ball and Kerr canning and preserving products are up more than 30% from 2008. Sonya Staffan, owner of The Jam and Jelly Lady commercial cannery in Lebanon, Ohio, is offering twice as many classes this year.

•Sewing. More people are learning to sew so they can mend clothes and make home décor, says Rachel Cohen, spokeswoman for SVP Worldwide, owner of sewing-products makers Singer and Husqvarna Viking.

•Relocating. Steve Saltman, general manager of LandAndFarm.com, a national real estate company, says more customers want to "live simply in a less-expensive place." Jonathan Rawles of SurvivalRealty.com says more people moving to rural areas "are specifically worried about economic and social instability." _USAT

This is gradual self-extraction from the mainstream economy. A form of stealth "John Galt-ing" that is unlikely to be broadly noticed until it has penetrated deeply into the productive population. There will be many levels of economic dropping-out before this Obama depression runs its course, and before much of the freeloading class is unceremoniously dumped on their asses. Obama himself -- and a large proportion of his zombie horde -- lacks the personal heft to ever comprehend what is happening. His brain-rotted following is quite large, so a rapid return to sanity is unlikely.

But if those who can, won't (at least not in the open where the tax collectors can see), eventually those who can't are going to have to either make concessions or do without. Interesting times. There are limits to what government borrowing, lightspeed printing presses, and Obamanamanomics can do when the wheels of commerce are starting to fall off the machine.

The Only Hope for Democracy is for the People to Wake Up and Act In Their Own Interests

Update 17 April 2009: PJTV provides multimedia coverage from dozens of sites of Tea Party Celebratory Protests. Over 500,000 persons attended the celebrations in the US alone.
Update: Multiple links to Tea Party coverage w/ comments from multiple points of view. It seems the map below grossly underestimates the number of cities, towns, and communities that hosted Tea Party celebratory protests today.It has been a long time since regular working Americans could find a cause that would get them to pack up the babies, grab the old ladies, and have everyone go to the protest. Today's tax day Tea Party protests are likely to be atypically calm and peaceful, compared to your average left-wing moneybags organised angry spittle bussed in outing. Not that your clueless leftist agitproper is likely to let the opportunity go to waste:

The Left’s response to Tax Day Tea Party events has been pure Saul Alinsky Rules for Radicals: Ridicule. But in the Chicago socialist’s day, the tool kit did not include embedding bogus newsie posers at opposition events. Beware such chicanery today. From DKos via MM:

“Tomorrow, my husband and I will be venturing into the wilds disguised as a news crew to do some in person interviewers with teabaggers here in Rhode Island (if we can find any) … We’re going to ask open ended questions that seem to have a slight conservative bent to (hopefully) get them to open up and just start ranting. Then, we take any examples of racism, hatred, ignorance, and stupidity that we catch on camera and make a little movie out of it. Probably a YouTube special. Here’s the list we have so far

* What are you celebrating (The Boston Tea Party), and can you explain its historical relevance? [We're hoping to get some hilarious flubs from this one]

* Do you approve of Michael Steele’s plan to expand the GOP through a “hip-hop urban-suburban marketing strategy”? [hoping to get some juicy racist stuff from this question]

* (as an intentional misunderstanding/follow up, presuming that someone complains about wasteful government spending) “So you disapprove of your tax dollars going to the Iraq War?” [should elicit some confusion]

Anyways, it’s a start… but I’d love to have some suggestions for questions that sound fine, but should prompt an outpouring of crazy.” _TaxDayTeaParty

Anything to get the old bags out of the house, I always say. There will no doubt be a lot of selective editing going on, but this time there will be plenty of unedited video from many cameras, so that we can all judge what really happened. Not like the political interviews by CBS or ABC news in the past election, where everything that didn't fit with the message was left on the cutting-room floor.

The Obama / Pelosi reich may very well be the Waterloo of the US news and entertainment media. They worked so hard to gain control of "the message." But just like Ceausescu or Mussolini, things eventually fall apart. This may be the age to see it happen.

Democracy is worthless unless the people have genuine choices and genuine options for redress of grievances. The modern US political system does not provide either.

Obama's Glass

Image SourceRemember, no matter how many of your windows get broken by thrown bricks, Obama's Glass always stands ready to repair and replace. A warranty to that effect comes with every brick.

A glass company like no other, because there is no other. There can be only The One.

Slower Economy Puts Drag on Rocket Races

The Rocket Racing League has been forced to delay the start of its racing season due to a slower economy and early design flaws in the rockets themselves. But plans are still on for a two-rocket demo at this September's Reno Air Races. More ambitious plans for a race to sub-orbital space had to be postponed even further due to technological and economic concerns.

Last year, the league demonstrated its first-generation racer, equipped with engines from California-based XCOR Aerospace, at the AirVenture show in Oshkosh. This year's time line calls for two Armadillo-powered planes to fly at September's Reno Air Races. "We're going to put on a pretty good show there," Whitelaw said.

Additional demonstration flights may take place after that, but full-blown rocket races with prizes may have to wait until 2011, Whitelaw said. "It's really a matter of waiting for the economy to sort itself out," he said.

....In the meantime, XCOR Aerospace is plugging along on its plans to get its Lynx Mark 1 rocket plane into the test-flight phase by next year. XCOR's CEO, Jeff Greason, told me that the engineering test vehicle was under construction and the rocket engines are undergoing testing.

Greason acknowledged that raising money for rocket ventures was tough in the current economic environment. But then again, he added, "I haven't ever noticed when it was easy."

Although Greason has never announced that there's enough money in the bank to get the Lynx off the ground, XCOR just keeps going, and going, and going. That's thanks in large part to its stealthy ability to leverage the know-how gained through a variety of contracts - including its now-done deal with the Rocket Racing League. _CosmicLog

Sooner or later, we will have rocket races. Atmospheric, sub-orbital, and to the moon. To infinity and beyond may require more advanced technology.

Robots Will Farm and Log the Future

The six-legged robotic logger featured in the above video is just the beginning of the infiltration of robots into logging and farming. Maintaining healthy forests and healthy crops is a lot of work. Physically demanding and often menial, these chores are almost perfectly designed for a robot's strengths.

The successful development of [agricultural] robots could potentially bring a two-fold advantage to modern agricultural techniques. Firstly, the specificity with which robots work – the ability to deliver nutrients directly to the plant on an as-need basis – could greatly reduce the amount of resources and money spent on crop maintenance. Second, the ability to harvest specialty crops could significantly lower the amount of time and back-breaking labor associated with picking fruits and vegetables

“Agriculture contributes a lot of damage to the land, the soil, the water and environment,” Rus explained. “So if we can figure out a way of using robots and automation to deliver nutrients to plants – pesticides, fertilizers, water when it’s needed – instead of sort of mass spreading them, then we hope we would have an impact on the environment.” _RedOrbit

This development is inevitable, particularly with the coming of biofuels from agricultural and forestry waste. Robots can be perfectly equipped to gather, compress, and otherwise densify agricultural and forestry waste biomass. After preliminary on-site densification, waste biomass can be economically transported to local and regional pre-processing and processing plants for conversion into various forms of portable energy such as torrefied biomass, pyrolysis oils, syngas, biomass cubes and pellets, etc. Or the compacted biomass may be co-fired with coal to produce electricity.

Eveything depends upon the economical collection and densification of the waste biomass on-site. Robots -- perhaps solar-powered robots -- are potentially perfect for the task.

Cross-posted on Al Fin Energy

Genetic Diversity Where None Was Expected

Most scientists had believed until recently that silent mutations had no effect on an organism. Thanks to researchers at the Univesity of Pennsylvania, we have learned that "silent mutations" -- although they do not change the encoded protein product of the gene -- can change the quantity of the encoded protein that is produced.

The silent mutations changed the amount of fluorescent protein by as much as 250-fold, without changing the properties of the protein. Codon bias, the probability that one codon of three adjacent nucleotides will code for one amino acid over another, was previously thought to be the cause for protein expression variance, but it did not correlate with gene expression in these experiments.

"At first we were stumped," Plotkin said. "How were the silent mutations influencing protein levels? Eventually, we looked at mRNA structure and discovered that this was the underlying mechanism." MedNewsToday

The number of ways that humans can vary by gene expression, yet still possess almost identical genomes on superficial inspection, is immense and growing larger.

Non-coding RNAs are a large part of the reason why. "Junk DNA" that isn't really junk. The surface of gene expression and gene switching is barely being scratched, and now we find yet another source of subtle variation in gene expression.

These are exciting times for geneticists and for anyone with an interest in gene expression, and potential gene therapies.

Timothy McVeigh is Alive and Well on a Canadian Organic Chicken Farm, Plotting the Destruction of All Modern Civilisation

Be sure to check out this CBC special report on Peak Oil Doomers. The peak oil movement is well sprinkled with extremists who are not only preparing for a collapse of civilisation, but are actively working to bring it about. The catastrophic global warming movement also attracts its share of intellectuals who have a soft spot in their heart for violent radicalism.

In fact, wherever one looks in the mainstream faux environmental movement, one will find poorly concealed sympathies for the use of violence to bring about revolutionary change in the economic systems of regions, countries, and the world. One might be forgiven for thinking that the entire faux environmental front is just a cover for its many intellectuals who harbour a desire to see a violent overthrow of the established order.

The CBC is too often like the BBC in its coddling and encouragement of these marginals. A more critical investigation of this phenomenon might have reflected better on the organisation.

Science Evolves and Changes Naturally w/ Time

Every science should be viewed as temporary. The sciences are constantly accumulating new information and new data which must be reconciled with "established" science, and incorporated where possible. Sometimes established science must be discarded like a soiled diaper in the light of new information. Science is not about "facts", after all, but rather a way of reasoning.

Science is an evolving discipline. Various fields are constantly being born while others are dying away. For example, 20 years ago, quantum computing was a mere twinkle in its founders' eyes as was proteomics a mere ten years ago. And in the same time scale, a large part of chemistry has morphed in nanotechnology.

...Communities regularly merge and create new groups of ideas. That's to be expected if the anecdotal evidence is anything to go by but they find some more interesting phenomena too.

For example, communities that are more willing to reinvent themselves tend to be the ones that have most impact per paper. But it also shows that communities with higher impact per paper tend be shorter-lived. _TechnologyReview

When political and financial interests exert excessive influence on science, it loses its natural evolutionary vitality and becomes set in bureaucratic concrete. This is clearly happening in the field of climate modeling and the carbon hysteria establishment. Sadly, the Obama administration is injecting politics into the scientific process at unprecedented levels since the days of Stalin. It is unclear whether the already weakened US economy can withstand this level of top-down interference -- particularly when the end result is energy starvation and a strong artificial upward pressure on energy prices. (political peak oil)

Sciences are born, sciences merge, split, and sciences die. That is the nature of healthy evolution in the world of contested ideas. Greedy and corrupt politicians and financiers cannot help interfering with the process. We must save what can be saved from the mash and do what we can. It should be enough.

Intelligence is Not an Algorithm

Algorithms involve several forms of abstraction. First, an algorithm consists of clear specifications for what should be performed in each step, but not necessarily clear specifications for how. In essence, an algorithm takes a problem specifying what should be achieved and breaks it into smaller problems with simpler requirements for what should be achieved. An algorithm should specify steps simple enough that what becomes identical to how as far as the person or machine executing the algorithm is concerned. _NewAtlantis

Anyone who has programmed computers understands the central role of algorithms to modern computing. An algorithm is a sequence (often involving iteration and/or recursion) of steps for converting an input into a useful output. Coming up with just the right algorithm to do a job often requires a high level of intelligence. Intelligence --> Good algorithm. Unfortunately, it does not work in reverse: Good algorithm --> Intelligence.

Properly understood, the first question underlying the AI debate is: Can the properties of the mind be completely described on their own terms as an algorithm? Recall that an algorithm has a definite start and end state and consists of a set of well-defined rules for transitioning from start state to end state. As we have already seen, it was the explicit early claim of AI proponents that the answer to this question was yes: the properties of the mind, they believed, could be expressed algorithmically (or “procedurally,” to use a more general term). But the AI project has thus far failed to prove this answer, and AI researchers seem to have understood this failure without acknowledging it.

...Once the unlikelihood of procedurally describing the mind at a high level is accepted, the issue becomes whether the mind can be replicated at some lower level in order to recreate the high level, raising the next important question: Are the layers of physical systems, and thus the layers of the mind and brain, separable in the same way as the layers of the computer?...it is correct to explain computers in terms of separable layers, since that is how they are designed. Physical systems, on the other hand, are not designed at all. They exist prior to human intent; we separate them into layers as a method of understanding their behavior. Psychology and physics, for example, can each be used to answer a distinct set of questions about a single physical system—the brain. We rely on hierarchies to explain physical systems, but we actually engineer hierarchies into computers.

...What is the basic functional unit of the mind? If the mind were a computer, it would be possible to completely describe its behavior as a procedure. That procedure would have to use certain basic operations, which are executed by some functional unit of the brain. The early hypothesis of AI was that this question was essentially irrelevant since the mind’s operations could be described at such a high level that the underlying hardware was inconsequential. Researchers today eschew such a large-scale approach, instead working under the assumption that the mind, like a computer program, might be a collection of modules, and so we can replicate the modules and eventually piece them back together—which is why research projects today focus on very specific subsystems of intelligence and learning.

...The unit of the mind typically targeted for replication is the neuron, and the assumption has thus been that the neuron is the basic functional unit of the mind. The neuron has been considered a prime candidate because it appears to have much in common with modules of computer systems: It has an electrical signal, and it has input and output for that signal in the form of dendrites and axons. It seems like it would be relatively straightforward, then, to replicate the neuron’s input-output function on a computer, scan the electrical signals of a person’s brain, and boot up that person’s mind on a suitably powerful computer.

...Every indication is that, rather than a neatly separable hierarchy like a computer, the mind is a tangled hierarchy of organization and causation. Changes in the mind cause changes in the brain, and vice versa. To successfully replicate the brain in order to simulate the mind, it will be necessary to replicate every level of the brain that affects and is affected by the mind.

...The fact that the mind is a machine just as much as anything else in the universe is a machine tells us nothing interesting about the mind. If the strong AI project is to be redefined as the task of duplicating the mind at a very low level, it may indeed prove possible—but the result will be something far short of the original goal of AI.

If we achieve artificial intelligence without really understanding anything about intelligence itself—without separating it into layers, decomposing it into modules and subsystems—then we will have no idea how to control it. We will not be able to shape it, improve upon it, or apply it to anything useful. Without having understood and replicated specific mental properties on their own terms, we will not be able to abstract them away—or, as the transhumanists hope, to digitize abilities and experiences, and thus upload and download them in order to transfer our consciousnesses into virtual worlds and enter into the minds of others. _NewAtlantis_via_SimoleonSense

Be sure to read the rest at the link above. I have been interested in artificial intelligence since the early 1990s, and was initially quite optimistic about the prospects for the creation of an intelligent machine brain. Over the years, as I learned more about both machines and the brain, I have modified my expectations quite significantly.

I have become far more interested in questions of human cognition -- and how cognition in humans might be improved -- than in the development of intelligent machines. Questions having to do with the difference between rationality and intelligence, or understanding what makes super-intelligent people tick, are far more engaging to me than hearing about which robot was best able to imitate human facial expression or body movement.

Needless to say, every aspect of human intelligence, from the genetic, tothe molecular, to the neuronal, to the cortical columnar level and up, will come under scrutiny repeatedly in the quest for a fuller understanding of how the mind works -- and how it might be made to work better.

You can be sure that politicians and their enablers want to know how to pull your strings. Some of us, on the other hand, would rather everyone learn to pull his own strings -- and what it means to do so.

Intelligence is not an algorithm, but good algorithms will prove extremely helpful in the quest for intelligence -- and everything complex that we attempt. It is likely that most of us will eventually carry algorithmic co-processors that function as cognitive aids and augments. We will probably find it difficult to function at our highest levels without them.

H/T SimoleonSense

Consent is the Death of the Mind

Science is based upon dissent and heresy. When a person consents to surrender his reason to a consensus of other "minds", his own brain begins to atrophy. That is how scientists can maintain the edge of their rationality -- through constant dissent. With consent comes the death of reason.

World-renowned Australian geologist, Ian Plimer, is publishing a magnum opus, Heaven and Earth. The 500 page book has 2311 footnotes, and is based upon 40 years of research and experience in Earth Sciences. Professor Plimer pulls no punches and does not tolerate fools.

Much of what we have read about climate change, he argues, is rubbish, especially the computer modelling on which much current scientific opinion is based, which he describes as "primitive". Errors and distortions in computer modelling will be exposed in time. (As if on cue, the United Nations' peak scientific body on climate change was obliged to make an embarrassing admission last week that some of its computers models were wrong.)....

....If we look at the last 6 million years, the Earth was warmer than it is now for 3 million years. The ice caps of the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland are geologically unusual. Polar ice has only been present for less than 20 per cent of geological time. What follows is an intense compression of the book's 500 pages and all their provocative arguments and conclusions:

Is dangerous warming occurring? No.

Is the temperature range observed in the 20th century outside the range of normal variability? No.

The Earth's climate is driven by the receipt and redistribution of solar energy. Despite this crucial relationship, the sun tends to be brushed aside as the most important driver of climate. Calculations on supercomputers are primitive compared with the complex dynamism of the Earth's climate and ignore the crucial relationship between climate and solar energy.

"To reduce modern climate change to one variable, CO2, or a small proportion of one variable - human-induced CO2 - is not science. To try to predict the future based on just one variable (CO2) in extraordinarily complex natural systems is folly. Yet when astronomers have the temerity to show that climate is driven by solar activities rather than CO2 emissions, they are dismissed as dinosaurs undertaking the methods of old-fashioned science."

Over time, the history of CO2 content in the atmosphere has been far higher than at present for most of time. Atmospheric CO2 follows temperature rise. It does not create a temperature rise. CO2 is not a pollutant. Global warming and a high CO2 content bring prosperity and longer life.

The hypothesis that human activity can create global warming is extraordinary because it is contrary to validated knowledge from solar physics, astronomy, history, archaeology and geology. "But evidence no longer matters. And any contrary work published in peer-reviewed journals is just ignored. We are told that the science on human-induced global warming is settled. Yet the claim by some scientists that the threat of human-induced global warming is 90 per cent certain (or even 99 per cent) is a figure of speech. It has no mathematical or evidential basis."

Observations in nature differ markedly from the results generated by nearly two dozen computer-generated climate models. These climate models exaggerate the effects of human CO2 emissions into the atmosphere because few of the natural variables are considered. Natural systems are far more complex than computer models.

The setting up by the UN of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988 gave an opportunity to make global warming the main theme of environmental groups. "The IPCC process is related to environmental activism, politics and opportunism. It is unrelated to science. Current zeal around human-induced climate change is comparable to the certainty professed by Creationists or religious fundamentalists." _SidneyMorningHerald

The entire enterprise of the climate catastrophe orthodoxy is based upon groupthink, and the maintaining of groupthink discipline. Like the party discipline of Maoist China or Stalinist USSR, the liberal uses of purges and figurative exile are necessary to maintain the illusion of infallibility.

Intelligent people can be caught in the trap of groupthink -- particularly if their livelihoods are involved. But persons who are both intelligent and conscientious will avoid groupthink consensus like the plague. Because it is a plague, manifested by widespread brain rot. Those who would preserve their brains and avoid zombie-hood, will avoid the brain rot of consent. It is to them, that Plimer appeals.

H/T Tom Nelson

Reality Poses Annoying Distraction for Obama

The Reuters headline put it this way: “Pirates Pose Annoying Distraction For Obama.” _Steyn

It is not only pirates that pose an annoying distraction for the clown president. The whole world distracts most annoyingly from the main attraction on the stage, The One, Dear Leader, Messiah for Life.

As it happens, Somali piracy is not a distraction, but a glimpse of the world the day after tomorrow. In my book America Alone, I quote Robert D. Kaplan referring to the lawless fringes of the map as “Indian Territory.” It’s a droll jest but a misleading one, since the very phrase presumes that the badlands will one day be brought within the bounds of the ordered world. In fact, a lot of today’s badlands were relatively ordered not so long ago, and many of them are getting badder and badder by the day.

...According to Chatham House in London, Somali pirates made about $30 million in ransom and booty last year. Thirty mil goes a long way in Somalia, making piracy a very attractive proposition. It’s also a low-risk one. Once upon a time we killed and captured pirates. _Steyn

It is all just so much bother, for Dear Leader. He would much prefer to travel the world giving speeches before large and adoring crowds. The world will get better, just give him time. The world is already a much better place for the Obamas and friends, for George Soros, Goldman Sachs, the Chicago mafia, and the entire web of "Friends and Sponsors of Lord Barry." This year the blossoms bloom brighter, songbirds sing sweeter, and grass grows greener, thanks to The One.

We certainly do not need crews of scurvy pirates distracting from the message, now, do we? Certainly not!

"Bow down and praise The One
Give Him your money and your guns
Build Him a country that makes His Wife proud!
Lord Barry, heal the bitter ones....."

Bush the Gray, Obama the Red

There is a direct connection between the graph above and the map below. The graph above is the optimistic, wishful-thinking view of where Obama is taking America. Deeply into debt, but perhaps total catastrophe can be avoided. A more battle hardened viewpoint might state that it is precisely the total catastrophe toward which Obama is aiming. No matter. Intentional or not, catastrophe is the end result of the real fiscal and monetary trajectory of the clueless clown president.

Which is why the Tea Party movement is springing up in towns, hamlets, boroughs, and municipalities across the country. This is a grassroots movement that doesn't depend upon the ill-gotten $ billions of George Soros and his gang of economic demolition specialists. The leftist-dominated news media has studiously ignored the nationwide phenomenon, but not leftist minions such as moveon.org and other groupthinking agitprop organisations. They intend to crash the party on April 15 -- TAX DAY!!! Below are a few of the locations where Tea Party protests are scheduled to occur on tax day. If you attend one, be on the lookout for moveon.org etc. agents provocateur.These agents provocateur will be aiming for a disruption that will play well to the national media -- something to serve as a symbol of disdain at which the Katie Courics and Charlie Gibsons of the media can smirk from a distance -- objective and above the fray, as always. As if.

Certainly Obama will not back down from his radical core ideas. He has been waiting his whole life to carry them out, and now that he is so close what can possibly stop him? Watch for yourself, or attend personally. Be sure to carry a video camera and keep a video journal of the fun.

Living In "The Dollhouse" For Real

"Dollhouse" is an American television drama series set in modern day Los Angeles. The Dollhouse is a subsidiary of a large bioscience corporation that traffics in human lives and human minds. Possessing the power to erase memories and re-program minds with the recorded memories of others, The Dollhouse sends its programmed human mannequins out to fulfill the wishes of very wealthy clients.

The underlying idea -- that human minds can be erased, then re-programmed -- is absurd and likely to remain absurd into the indefinite future. But there is a sense in which The Dollhouse is very real, influencing tens and hundreds of millions of people -- some of whom you probably know. Human minds are being "erased and re-programmed" every day. A little at a time, using subtle psychological techniques at the beck and call of powerful interests.

The existence of this behavioral dream team — which also included best-selling authors Dan Ariely of MIT (Predictably Irrational) and Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein of the University of Chicago (Nudge) as well as Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman of Princeton — has never been publicly disclosed, even though its members gave Obama white papers on messaging, fundraising and rumor control as well as voter mobilization. All their proposals — among them the famous online fundraising lotteries that gave small donors a chance to win face time with Obama — came with footnotes to peer-reviewed academic research. "It was amazing to have these bullet points telling us what to do and the science behind it," Moffo tells TIME. "These guys really know what makes people tick."

President Obama is still relying on behavioral science. But now his Administration is using it to try to transform the country. Because when you know what makes people tick, it's a lot easier to help them change. _Time_via_SimoleonSense

These leftist academics were more than willing to lend their expertise to the Obama campaign -- and to continue to do so. The Obama campaign, after all, never ends.

But Obama was not the beginning of deep mind manipulation of the American public. The same machine that has turned the doubtful campaign of an inexperienced baby senator into the steamrolling movement that knocked America's doors down, has been running wide open for over a decade now.

[Leftists] have created a powerhouse propaganda machine that helped Moveon.org smear a four-star general, promotes endless environmental scares and brags it can place its left wing themes in the nation's leading newspapers.

Fenton Communications pitches for trial lawyers, collectively the largest contributors to the Democrat Party, as well as for the hard line environmental group Greenpeace; Venezuela's socialist leader Hugo Chavez; anti-war demonstrator Cindy Sheehan; and gay and abortion advocates.

...Fenton, as do other [leftist] strategy groups, has a big advantage over their conservative counterparts. When a Fenton executive pitches a story to the New York Times et al., they are treated as a credible source trying to expose corporate or political evil. When a right-leaning PR firm tries to float a story, the [leftist] news media makes them the story: the vast right wing conspiracy trying to destroy an innocent [leftist].

Remember, trial lawyers are among Fenton's biggest clients. In this case, it not only handles their PR. With with the help of its client environmental groups, Fenton handed them a class-action law suit that may reap law firms millions of dollars.

Remember also that trial lawyers as a group are the largest contributors to the Democratic Party. Democratic lawmakers stop virtually every Republican effort to rein in huge jury awards that drive up the cost of health care and put some companies out of business. _HE

It's a great scam, if you don't mind being a complete slime. The left dominates the news media, academia, trial lawyers, labour unions (including teachers' unions and public employees' unions), government bureaucracy at many levels, and most of the arts and entertainment industry.

Unwitting public consumers of the news, of entertainment, and of education - cum - indoctrination ride the constantly turning mind - dump and mind - wipe carousel most of their lives, without ever being any the wiser. Like the hapless inhabitants of the world of George Orwell's "1984", these somnambulists walk through their lives never quite remembering who is at war with whom, or who is an ally and who an enemy.

It is hard to blame them -- these zombies of the modern age. No one ever gave them what they would have needed to resist the dominant themes blowing over them day after day, year after year. And so they sway with the wind, drift with the currents. It is becoming a perfect world for the mind - shapers. The really big money is certainly behind them now.

We are all dolls now.

10 Principles for a Survivable Economy

Nicholas Taleb is best known as the author of "The Black Swan". A black swan is a highly improbable event that can disrupt well laid plans, and send the future into a self destruct cycle. The current financial services crisis -- which Obama is making immeasurably worse -- is an example of what some persons consider a black swan. It is clear that our current political / economic hybrid system is not structured to deal with black swans. Taleb makes a few suggestions on how to improve it, and make it more flexible -- and more capable of surviving. (via SimoleonSense)

1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small.

2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains.

3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.

4 Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here.

5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.

6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning

7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”.

8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.

9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement.

10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. _FinancialTimes_via_SimoleonSense_and_More at ZenPundit.

The Obama-ites in the White House are not “socialists” ( at least not most of them) but there is a great love of liberal-minded technocracy there, and a seemingly boundless self-confidence in the ability of high-minded, upper-middle class, progressive, wonks and lawyers from the “good schools” (or investment houses - in some cases, both) to micromanage not just our lives for us, or even the United States of America but the global economy itself. Sort of a Superempowered Oligarchy of Good Feelings.

The ancient Greeks had a word for that: hubris. More importantly, the Obama-ites are wrong here - adding endless amounts of regulatory complexity is not going to give them the kind of granular control or positive returns that they seek to obtain from the system. Counterintuitively, they should be radically simplifying where and to the degree they safely can instead. _ZenPundit

Zen Pundit has clearly located one of the largest problems with the Obama administration: its precarious dependence upon an arthritic and politically correct Ivy League view of the world which has never had sound applicability -- particularly now. Greedy, corrupt wonks -- legends in their own minds -- have grabbed control of America's pocketbooks and its potent arsenal of technology and knowledge acquisition. Obama himself is even worse, much worse, than the unscrupulous wonks working for him. There is nothing that Obama would not trade away for another fix of adulation.

Russia Is Disappearing! What Will It Mean?

Between 1976 and 1991, the last sixteen years of Soviet power, the country recorded 36 million births. In the sixteen post-Communist years of 1992–2007, there were just 22.3 million, a drop in childbearing of nearly 40 percent from one era to the next. On the other side of the life cycle, a total of 24.6 million deaths were recorded between 1976 and 1991, while in the first sixteen years of the post-Communist period the Russian Federation tallied 34.7 million deaths, a rise of just over 40 percent. The symmetry is striking: in the last sixteen years of the Communist era, births exceeded deaths in Russia by 11.4 million; in the first sixteen years of the post-Soviet era, deaths exceeded births by 12.4 million. _WorldAffairs_via_ArtsLettersDaily

Why focus on Russia's depopulation problem when Japan, Spain, Italy, Germany, and other developed and somewhat developed nations of the world are experiencing the same thing? Because Russia is particularly belligerent toward the entire world -- particularly its neighbors -- and because Russia is actively building more accurate missiles and more durable nuclear warheads. Russia is attempting to develop nanotechnology almost exclusively for its weapons potential. Russia has a potent chemical and biological weapons arsenal. And as evidenced by Russia's particular methods of self - implosion, Russia is only half - civilised, which means that Russia has no particular scruples in how it will use whatever violence projection methods it can develop and maintain.

Russia's population is slipping through the cracks of time and space, withering into a long dark winter.

Strikingly, and perhaps paradoxically, Moscow’s leadership is advancing into this uncertain terrain not only with insouciance but with highly ambitious goals. In late 2007, for example, the Kremlin outlined the objective of achieving and maintaining an average annual pace of economic growth in the decades ahead on the order of nearly 7 percent a year: on this path, according to Russian officials, GDP will quadruple in the next two decades, and the Russian Federation will emerge as the world’s fifth largest economy by 2020.

But history offers no examples of a society that has demonstrated sustained material advance in the face of long-term population decline. It seems highly unlikely that such an ambitious agenda can be achieved in the face of Russia’s current demographic crisis. Sooner or later, Russian leadership will have to acknowledge that these daunting long-term developments are shrinking their country’s social and political potential. _WAJ

Westerners need to be concerned about Russia's simultaneous megalomaniacal delusions of grandeur in combination with the striking disappearance of people from the half-western, half-eastern, frontier nation of vodka-HIV-TB, authoritarianism, and strong nihilist undercurrents.

...to date, no European society that has embarked upon the same demographic transition as Russia’s—declining marriage rates with rising divorce; the spread of cohabitation as alternative to marriage; delayed age at marriage and sub-replacement fertility regimens—has reverted to more “traditional” family patterns and higher levels of completed family size. There is no reason to think that in Russia it will be any different.

...Putin’s Kremlin made a fateful bet that natural resources—oil, gas, and other extractive saleable commodities—would be the springboard for the restoration of Moscow’s influence as a great power on the world stage. In this gamble, Russian authorities have mainly ignored the nation’s human resource crisis. During the boom years—Russia’s per capita income roughly doubled between 1998 and 2007—the country’s death rate barely budged. Very much worse may lie ahead. How Russia’s still-unfolding demographic disaster will affect the country’s domestic political situation—and its international security posture—are questions that remain to be answered. _WAJ

A realist will have long since understood that Russia's trajectory is set. The main question is how Russia will handle its death throes. Will it unleash a flight of missiles in a last gasp attempt at leaving a legacy of Russian greatness? Or will it settle quietly into its self-made grave, wrapping its death robe about it for the long sleep?

More likely the former, or any other method of striking out against anyone who may have given slight or offense to Russia. The subtext of envious vengefulness runs deep in the Russian character. With nothing to lose, it is likely the dying nation will attempt to take its enemies with it.

So it is puzzling to watch President Obama toadying to the dying husk of a nation, making obeisance to the threat of violence that Russia represents -- offering to disarm the world hegemon as a gesture of trust to the untrustworthy. One can only hope that such Dear Leaders as Obama will only occupy the world stage for a short time. Such arrogant naifs can only make the underlying chaos immeasurably worse.

Future Focus: Importance of Long Term Goals

"If we are feeling fresh, it's easy to focus on our goals and exert self-control. But when we've already tested the limits of our self-control, it's harder to keep going," the authors explain. "This is when focusing on the big picture helps us to keep our eyes on the goal and push ourselves harder. In contrast, focusing on the immediate situation only emphasizes how we've already maximized the extent of our willpower and hinders self-control." _PO

Childhood is regarded as a time for play, when a focus on immediate gratification is expected. As children approach adolescence, when more adult emotions and gratifications come into focus, children need to learn self-restraint. Adolescents must act without the developed "executive function" of an adult brain. Mature adults are expected to be able to act responsibly and transcend most of the more destructive of the urges for immediate gratification. But increasingly, more and more "adults" lack the ability to postpone or deny themselves pleasures that can hurt them in the long-term.

Human brains incorporate the potential for a wide range of behaviours, involving all time scales of planning and all levels of self-restraint. It is the pre-frontal cortex that provides humans with the ability to envision many possible futures, and to carry out complex intertwined sequences of actions that can create the most desirable future.

Executive functions are the high-level cognitive processes that facilitate new ways of behaving, and optimise one's approach to unfamiliar circumstances.....But we particularly engage such processes when, for instance, we make a plan for the future, or voluntarily switch from one activity to another, or resist temptation; in other words, whenever we do many of the things that allow us to lead independent, purposeful lives. These processes are thought to be supported, at least in part, by structures within the frontal lobes of the brain. _ScienceDirect_via_DericBounds

Several conditions (besides childhood and adolescence) can interfere with a person's ability to utilise the "future focus" of his pre-frontal brain to avoid self-destructive behaviours. Damage to the brain's frontal lobe, surgical pre-frontal lobotomy, or just a drink or two of ethanol -- all of these are well known to interfere with normal executive function and self-control. But simple fatigue, discomfort, or lack of sleep can also interfere with future focus. In addition, lack of good role models in childhood, poor childhood upraising, and a childhood educational and social environment that emphasised immediate gratification over future goals, all lead to societies such as ours, where ever larger numbers of persons, over time, lack basic future orientation and self discipline.

The obesity epidemic is but one symptom of the society-wide deficiencies of functional executive processes. The increasing tendency of voters to choose candidates on the basis of security over freedom is another example of a society rife with adults whose frontal lobes never grew up.

The cure for the problem has to be administered at an early age -- between the ages of 4 and 7 -- to be considered effective. Much of a person's character comes with his genes, but the effect and expression of genes is strongly influenced by environment -- particularly early environment. If parents, teachers, and society in general miss that window of opportunity, too bad for the future.

Their future will tend to be full of obese adults who spend beyond their means, choose childlessness in order to have more time for personal pleasures, and vote for corrupt politicians who promise them ever more security, at the expense of vestigial freedoms and independence. Such a society is easily overrun by more primitive cultures with stronger future orientation.