English Speaking Nations Well Positioned Demographically ....

Wiki Anglosphere
If demography is destiny, then the Anglospheric nations appear to be well positioned for the next few decades.

Between 1980 and 2010, the U.S., Canada, and Australia saw big population surges: the U.S.’s expanded by 75 million, to more than 300 million; Canada’s nearly doubled, from 18 million to 34 million; and Australia’s increased from 13 million to 22 million. By contrast, in some European countries, such as Germany, population has remained stagnant, while Russia and Japan have watched their populations begin to shrink.

...Germany already has 33 elderly people for every 100 of working age—up from only 21 in 1985. By 2030, this figure will rise to 48, meaning that there will be barely two working Germans per retiree. The numbers are even worse in Japan, which currently has 35 seniors per 100 working-age people, a dramatic change from 1985, when the country had just 15. By 2030, the ratio is expected to rise to 53 per 100. _CityJournal

CityJournal

Other countries, such as Brazil and Iran, face similar scenarios. These countries, without social safety nets of the kinds developed in Europe or Japan, may get old before they can get rich.

These figures will have an impact on the growth of the global workforce. Between 2000 and 2050, for example, the U.S. workforce is projected to grow by 37 percent, while China’s shrinks by 10 percent, the EU’s decreases by 21 percent, and, most strikingly, Japan’s falls by as much as 40 percent.

In this respect, immigration presents the most important long-term advantage for the Anglosphere, which has excelled at incorporating citizens from other cultures. A remarkable 14 million people immigrated to Anglosphere countries over the last decade. _CityJournal

It’s indisputable that the Anglosphere no longer enjoys the overwhelming global dominance that it once had. What was once a globe-spanning empire is now best understood as a union of language, culture, and shared values. Yet what declinists overlook is that despite its current economic problems, the Anglosphere’s fundamental assets—economic, political, demographic, and cultural—are likely to drive its continued global leadership. The Anglosphere future is brighter than commonly believed. _CityJournal

CityJournalBut beyond mere demographics and current economic rankings, the Anglosphere is sitting on a tonne of energy -- which can be used to provide a bridge between the hydrocarbon age and the nuclear / electrical age.

...the US, Canada and Britain, are re-appraising domestic energy policies to take advantage of vast hydrocarbon resources; although President Obama is certainly doing his best to slow down the impact fossil fuels could have on the US domestic economy.

The impact of US shale gas – and prospectively shale oil – on domestic energy prices and in pegging back global prices, has already been nothing short of a revolution. Canada is not hanging around waiting for its southern neighbor to re-think its Keystone Pipeline strategy, but is already looking to sell much of its vast oil sands resource on the Asian market. Both the US and Canadian markets have also seen significant investment in their domestic energy markets, not least from cash-rich Chinese energy companies.

In Britain, North Sea oil and gas is a resource that just refuses to quit. Indeed, inward investment into Britain’s North Sea energy industries for 2012 already stands at a record breaking £7.5 billion. But Britain now appears to have a world class shale gas resource that could match, or even eclipse, its entire North Sea resource. Add to this the fact that oil prospects in the Falklands Basin are set to triple the country’s reserves, and Britain’s commitment to developing domestic resources leaves the rest of Europe cold (perhaps literally). _EnergyTribune

Meanwhile, Australia has significant supplies of coal and the world's largest resource of uranium.

In many ways, the English language is the Anglosphere's greatest resource, providing a common economic, cultural, and scientific link for the global machine.

Of course, politics and bloated governments are the weakest link, as always. Corrupt rent seeking bureaucrats, politicians, lobbies, and hangers-on, are always a threat to a prosperous future. Witness the US Obama administration and its policy of energy starvation, for example. If not for the persistence of a few stubborn entrepreneurs in the shale energy game, energy prices in the US would be in the stratosphere -- exactly where Obama had planned for them to be.

Fortunately, the bellicose crown prince of dysfunctional government has been forced to backtrack on several of his anti-energy stances. Not nearly far enough, but if the pompous monarch of arrogant ineptitude can be unseated in November, a great deal of promise can still be salvaged for the US and Anglospheric future.

Governments in Australia and the UK have pushed for similarly self-destructive energy policies, and have been forced to backtrack to variable degrees, as well. Canada's provincial governments are quite a mixed bag, but the federal government appears to be relatively pro-energy for now.

The most important purpose of the Anglosphere is to provide a stable environment for the evolution of next level humans. Once that transition moves into a self-sustaining mode, things will begin happening so quickly that ordinary political and governmental classifications will no longer signify to any great extent. But in the meantime, a significant stability and relative prosperity will be very important.

More: An Australian look at the death of peak oil

California's Monterey shale may contain 500 billion barrels of shale oil crude. North Dakota's Bakken is likely to contain a similar amount.

The US shale gas explosion produced so much natural gas that it resulted in a methane glut and a price slump for methane in the US, and we are beginning to see the same in Canada. Will the same thing happen in the UK? Or in Australia, due to coal seam methane? Abundant energy is crucial for industrial production and commercial activity. Let us hope that the people of the Anglosphere never allow their politicians to do what Obama, Rudd, and Cameron were apparently trying to do -- shut down fossil fuels and starve their nations of energy.

Small Steps Toward the Next Level

To reach the next level, humans need to make significant progress on many fronts. Humans need to become more intelligent (and wise), they need to learn to live much longer (and wiser) lives, and they need to learn to survive outside the benign surface of home planet Earth.

While we are working on becoming more intelligent -- and long thereafter -- we will probably need the assistance of intelligent machines. Currently, the memristor approach is seen by Al Fin cognitive scientists as the best approach to machine intelligence. Here is an update on the best current idea for building a machine intelligence PDF (via Brian Wang)


How to save rocket fuel for orbital launches: start high

Here is an exciting method for genetic modification of stem cells (and other cells).
This technique may eventually prove very useful for improving the genetic complement of stem cells used for growing new organs -- not to mention the gradual, over the decades, cell by cell replacement of organs such as liver, lung, heart, kidney, and brain. Cell by cell replacement over time utilises the pre-existing scaffold structure in place.

Advances in molecular manufacturing could put an end to scarcity,  and open up all of the world's real estate to comfortable, prosperous, sustainable living.  Say good-bye to kleptocrats, community organizers, investment bankers, bureaucrats, and most lawyers.

Having sex twice a night may help us avoid heart attacks and live longer.
[voice from next room]"Al! The article talks about having sex twice a week, not twice a night!"

[AF] "Oh, sorry.  My mistake." ;-)


Longer-lived people tend to collect more experiences and gain a broader perspective, than freshly hatched chicklings of 70 or 80 years.  Imagine living 500 years, but feeling as strong and vital as a 25 year old.  Imagine having the mind of a brilliant and creative scientist, and not having to worry about your brilliance fading for hundreds more years.  Consider having the resources of the entire solar system (and beyond) to work with.

Normal humans dislike limits.  They particularly dislike the arbitrary limits placed upon them by a corrupt , vampirish political class.  Some settling of contents may occur before opening.

Obama Depression Watch: Next Level Must Wait

Return of Recession
Rising unemployment leads to depressed retail sales, rising foreclosures.

US Government fiscal meltdown as tax receipts plummet
US government spending skyrockets, while tax collections crash and burn.

Government spending spree unstoppable?

State governments cannot print money, faced with deficits from here to eternity . . .

Meanwhile, the US federal government is hiring new employees like there is no tomorrow. And while private sector wages are stagnant, wages (and benefits) for federal workers are reaching for the sky. Watch this fragmentation of society, as the non-productive (destructive) government sector sucks up resources that were desperately needed by the private sector to create jobs, innovation, and prosperity.

What does all this have to do with the next level, the singularity, the coming age of abundance? Just this: before an effective and competent group of humans can self-organise to reach the next level, they will have to cross through a time of difficulty. Only those who are aware of the problems in advance, and have prepared for them, will have a chance to reach the next level on the other side.

A Brave New World of Custom Brain Augments

How do you want your brain customised? With a brain-machine interface? With genetic treatments? With smart drugs? With implanted nano-circuits? Or with stem cell colony implants ready to repair any damage or deficit?

All of those modifications are on the doorstep, ringing the front bell. The world's neuroscientists and philosophers are finally taking this reality seriously. A group of interested persons met in Berlin recently to discuss the implications of the brave new brain technologies.

The next stage of brainpower enhancement could be technological - through genetic engineering or brain prostheses. Because the gene variants pivotal to intellectual brilliance have yet to be discovered, boosting brainpower by altering genes may still be some way off, or even impossible. Prostheses are much closer, especially as the technology for wiring brains into computers is already being tested (see "Dawn of the cyborgs"). Indeed, futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil believes the time when humans merge with machines will arrive as early as 2045 (New Scientist, 9 May, p 26).

It won't be long before "clip-on" computer aids become available for everybody, says Andy Clark, a pro-enhancement philosopher at the University of Edinburgh in the UK. These could be anything from memory aids to the ability to "search" for information stored in your brain. "We'll get a flowering of brain augmentations, some seeping through from the disabled community," he says. "I see them becoming fashion items, a bit like choosing clothing." Clark says that even today, devices such as head-up displays on spectacles or simply being adept at using computer programs like Photoshop come close to being physical extensions of people's minds.

...There are, however, simple alternatives to technological enhancement that would achieve many of the same goals, says Dupré: education and child-rearing. Moreover, he thinks such changes can be heritable via epigenetics - the reprogramming of gene expression in offspring by exposure to cultural, maternal and environmental influences. Dupré points to a study in rats showing that good maternal care was passed on largely because it permanently altered gene activity in the brains of the pups. _NewScientist

There is a wide range of potential brain mod even without using invasive implants, stimulators, and genetic alterations. Humans have always had access to meditation techniques (including laughter) which may well build useful brain circuits. More recent developments such as neurofeedback expand the options for creative brain modification immensely. Combining brain machine interfaces with nano-implants, crafted meditative techniques, and neurofeedback offers some quite sophisticated possibilities for supercharging specific brain circuits.

Genetic modification (combined with creative stem cell therapies) is the long term goal, once the techniques are improved. The mainstream intent will be to provide a level playing field for all the world's people -- including those populations that seem stuck at average IQs around 70 to 80 points. These people have no hope of developing or maintaining a technological civilisation, and depend upon outsiders and market dominant minorities for their advanced goods and services.

Eventually, advanced germ cell line genetic brain augmentation techniques will be applied to persons who are already above average intelligence. Soon afterward, clear separations in group proficiencies will develop and begin to widen.

It is not likely that such separation will begin along racial lines, but rather along other affiliative lines such as professions or special interest groups. Societies whose more functional and accomplished members work well together regardless of race, ethnicity, or religion etc will probably be the most creative in terms of applying the new technologies.

If such quasi-elites -- by competencies -- have experienced enough societal shocks they are likely to jump beyond today's ethically queasy resistance to brain augmentation in the interest of survival. The threat of a new dark age brought on by incompetent world governments would be enough to focus even the most bleeding heart.

The horses are already out, and they are just now talking about closing the barn door. Someone take them some coffee.

Free Treasure Trove of Rational Self-Education

F.A. Hayek Interviewed By John O'Sullivan from FEE on Vimeo
The best education is the one you provide for yourself. The Internet is proving to be an invaluable provider of educational materials. Thanks to SimoleonSense blog, I recently discovered the FEE (Foundation for Economic Education) channel of videos on Vimeo. These videos come from the venerable nonprofit educational foundation, FEE, located in Irvington, NY. Books published and distributed by FEE were pivotal in the breakthrough educational period of Al Fin, as he made the important transition from natural born sheep to radical contrarian.

I should remind you that there will be no natural-born sheep among next level humans. And needless to say, there will be no Obama zombies -- who are infinitely less capable of thinking for themselves than natural-born sheep.

The power structures of the world are intent on keeping as many persons in the helpless, brain-dead state as possible. It is what your upbringing and education -- not to mention your socialisation among your peers -- has conditioned you to be. Only a "strong move to the light" will allow you to pull yourself clear of the bog of mindlessness in which most of humanity is mired. The light of reason, that is.

FEE is only one tool out of many, but it is an extremely useful and valuable tool. Pick it up, and use it well.

A Secular Morality

Each of us has grown up in a world in which moral judgments already exist. These judgments are passed every day by everyone on the conduct of everyone else. Each of us not only finds himself approving or disapproving how other people act, but approving or disapproving certain actions, and even certain rules or principles of action, wholly apart from his feelings about those who perform or follow them. So deep does this go that most of us even apply these judgments to our own conduct, and approve or disapprove of our own conduct in so far as we judge it to have conformed to the principles or standards by which we judge others. When we have failed, in our own judgment, to live up to the moral code which we habitually apply to others, we feel "guilty"; our "conscience" bothers us.
Henry Hazlitt, The Foundations of Morality

Across the western nations, religion has lost its hold over the people. Tragically, there is no other system of ethical guidance that has achieved any level of authority even closely approaching the prior authority of religion. In terms of ethics, most westerners appear to be "running blind." Many Al Fin readers have watched this developing ethical vacuum growing, with its concomitant rise in crime and societal and sub-societal dysfunction. In a multi-traditional, multi-religious, multi-ethnic society such as most western nations are becoming, a common moral and ethical system is absolutely vital to prevent the type of violence and societal schisms which are a constant threat to any society's present and future well-being.

Muslim societies solve this problem by declaring the supremacy of Islam, and forcing all other religions and belief systems into an uncomfortably subservient position. Communist societies solve the problem by establishing the communist state as a de facto religion and arbiter of morality, with all other belief systems considered irrelevant and obsolete -- if not treasonous.

Societies which pride themselves on their tolerance can not easily utilise either of those strategies. As a result, when the original basis of law and morality of a society begins to lose authority at the same time as the society grows much more strongly multi-traditional, the scene is set for violent clashes and schisms within the society.

The need for a widely accepted cross-traditional basis for ethical and moral behaviour is self-evident, but the devising of such a cross-traditional ethical system is hampered by all of the factions which are firmly attached to their own system of ethics. Most of these "strongly attached" factions are not willing to accept the need for any other system of ethics than their own. Hence, religious and ideological wars throughout history.

Where would one start, when attempting to devise a secular, or cross-traditional, system of ethics? Well, to begin with, one would not publicly begin such an effort in Iran or Saudi Arabia -- not if one valued his head. Even in Holland, Theo van Gogh discovered that publishing ideas that point out shortcomings in other ethical systems comes with a cost. Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Salman Rushdie, various Muhammed cartoonists, and others across Europe have learned the same lesson and lived to tell the story.

For those who are interested in this project, I would like to make one suggestion: The Foundations of Morality by Henry Hazlitt (long PDF). Before you click on the link, you should know that the PDF is a 24 MB book-length treatment, so you may want to right click and use the "Save Link As" option. That will download the document to your computer or removable drive, leaving your browser to function normally without bogging down.

I have found Hazlitt's approach to be quite valuable. As a disclaimer I will say that I am also comfortable with Hazlitt's viewpoints of market economics and libertarian politics as well. That comfort allows me greater play in the mental wrestling that goes on reading the book, than a person antagonistic to Hazlitt's strong individualist stance would have. Such a person would likely not survive the first few chapters. Which only highlights the problem of devising a cross-traditional, cross-ideological system of ethics.

In the end, such a system can only be agreed upon out of a pragmatic desire for a society that intermeshes cleanly, despite the many different traditions, religions, ethnic groupings, and nationalities of origin. Without the will to create such a cleanly meshing society of inevitable sub-societies, all is lost.

If the disparate components of a multi-traditional society are unwilling to admit a common secular morality into the areas where the different traditions interact, clearly the word "society" no longer means what most people think it means. If such is the case, an increase in crime, violence, and ill will between sub-societies of multi-traditional nations is inevitable -- perhaps leading to the type of dissolution that occurred in the former Yugoslavia, for large sections of several western nations. Or perhaps leading to something very much worse.

We are caught in the lurch, and many of us fail to recognise the problem. What are the odds that a common and workable system of ethics will find its way back into the lives of most people living in western countries? Slim to none. But the concept is worth working on, for the sake of emerging groups of more far thinking individuals. Next Level Humans.

The Post-Humans Among Us

Image Source

The recent IEEE Spectrum special on the singularity brought a lot of comment across the blogosphere. The NYT's John Tierney weighed in on the topic recently with a piece: When Do Post-Humans Show Up? Tierney gives Ray Kurzweil a chance to fight back against the "singularity deniers", and Kurzweil obliges.

These critics obviously have not read my book and have not read this chapter because they do not respond to anything I’ve written. It is as if they’ve just heard a superficial presentation of these ideas and respond without any engagement of the extensive discussion that has already taken place about these issues. _NYT

That may very well be, or it may be that Kurzweil is mentally fixed on a particular set of mechanisms and scenarios of singularity. It may be that Kurzweil's "extensive discussion that has already taken place about these issues..." is not as extensive or profound as Kurzweil imagines.

Kurzweil's discussion about how easily the human brain/mind will be emulated is particularly naive. This naivete comes naturally when a prolific and esteemed person such as Kurzweil is insufficiently familiar with the subject matter he is discussing--the genetics (and epigenetics) of the mind/brain.

I point out that the complexity of the design of the brain is at least 100 million times simpler than it appears because the design is in the genome. Even including the genetic machinery that implements the genome, the compressed genome is only about 50 million bytes (which I analyze in the book), and that is a level of complexity we can handle. We are already showing that we can develop realistic models and simulations of brain regions like the cerebellum and others. The cerebellum, for example, repeats a basic pattern a few billion times with some random variation within certain prescribed constraints. There is a lot of apparent complexity in the cerebellum but not very much unique design information, and we’re showing we can reverse-engineer it.

Of course the cerebellum is only peripherally involved in most conscious activity. It is an important "co-processor", but not the central processing center of consciousness. One can derive no comfort in the quest to understand human cognition from the apparent simplicity of cerebellar structure.

Similarly, if one supposed that the apparent simplicity of the brain genome implied a simplicity of the brain/mind itself, one would have to overlook much recent research detailing the "post-genomic", meta-genomic, and epigenetic development of central nervous system structures. These critical aspects of brain development are not well enough understood to allow useful modeling or quantification. Worse yet, even a complete understanding of how to create a human brain will not immediately put us in a place to understand how that brain works, or how it might be improved.

The road to the "singularity" will not be a smooth exponential curve. It will be a fractal fracturing of boundaries and limitations that will take decades to sort out. We will have pieces of the singularity existing a hand's breadth away from other pieces, with neither recognising the other. It will be up to post-humans to put the pieces together so that they do not blow up into a Skynet or Colossus.

If western civilisation survives attacks from desert religious fanaticisms, and 19th century cloistered ghetto-inspired central planning, various critical parts of the "singularity" may achieve capabilities and versatilities that allow them to connect with other critical parts in the same place at the same time. It is up to the post-humans among us to follow the threads of accomplishment, splice them together into a self-generative, autopoietic symbiotic whole, and wrap it all in a sustainable energy/matter matrix.

In Kurzweil's vision, the singularity drives the post-human. But doesn't it make more sense the other way around?

Eventually, the biological substrate of consciousness will be outpaced by other forms of conscious cognition. Post-humans will build their world around that knowledge, so as not to be left behind. Currently, only science fiction provides the speculative power to imagine the transformations that will come from genomics, nanotechnology, advanced hyper-parallel computation, robotics, evolved machine intelligences, and any combination of the above. After science fiction, Kurzweil provides a more "connected" view of our potential. Finally, there is mainstream science, which runs a very distant third in scope and vision to SF and Kurzweil.

But if you want a realistic assessment of what is likely to happen, you need scientist/engineers trained in multiple disciplines, who are also thoroughly steeped in biology, cognitive science, history, and science fiction. Post-humans will have to be able to bridge disciplines, cultures, even civilisations.

How Many Singularities Have There Been? How Many Singularities Will There Be?

Image Source

Robin Hanson suggests in IEEE Spectrum, that human history has already seen multiple singularities. Hanson believes that by looking at the effect of previous singularities on the course of human events, that we can better understand the impact of the next singularity--the singularity of the smart and highly capable machines.

...we have perhaps five eras during which the thing whose growth is at issue—the universe, brains, the hunting economy, the farming economy, and the industrial economy—doubled in size at fixed intervals. Each era of growth before now, however, has eventually switched suddenly to a new era having a growth rate that was between 60 and 250 times as fast. Each switch was completed in much less time than it had taken the previous regime to double—from a few millennia for the agricultural revolution to a few centuries for the industrial one. These switches constituted singularities.

...If a new transition were to show the same pattern as the past two, then growth would quickly speed up by between 60‑ and 250-fold. The world economy, which now doubles in 15 years or so, would soon double in somewhere from a week to a month. If the new transition were as gradual (in power-law terms) as the Industrial Revolution was, then within three years of a noticeable departure from typical fluctuations, it would begin to double annually, and within two more years, it might grow a million-fold. If the new transition were as rapid as the agricultural revolution seems to have been, change would be even more sudden.

Though such growth may seem preposterous, consider that in the era of hunting and gathering, the economy doubled nine times; in the era of farming, it doubled seven times; and in the current era of industry, it has so far doubled 10 times. If, for some as yet unknown reason, the number of doublings is similar across these three eras, then we seem already overdue for another transition. If we instead compare our era with the era of brain growth, which doubled 16 times before humans appeared, we would expect the next transition by around 2075.

...the next radical jump in economic growth seems more likely to come from something that has a profound effect on everything, because it addresses the one permanent shortage in our entire economy: human time and attention. They are by far the most productive components of today's economy. About two‑thirds of all income in the rich countries is paid directly for wages, and much of the remaining third represents indirect costs of labor. (For example, corporate income largely reflects earlier efforts by entrepreneurs.) So any innovation that could replace or dramatically improve human labor would be a very big deal.

... To keep a modern economy thriving, we must accomplish many mental tasks. Some people (we call them engineers) have to design new products, systems, and services. Other people have to build, market, transport, distribute, and maintain them, and so on. These myriad tasks are mostly complements, so that doing one task better increases the value of doing other tasks well. But for each task, humans and machines may also be substitutes; it can be a wasted effort to have them both do the same task.

The relative advantages of humans and machines vary from one task to the next. Imagine a chart resembling a topographic cross section, with the tasks that are “most human” forming a human advantage curve on the higher ground. Here you find chores best done by humans, like gourmet cooking or elite hairdressing. Then there is a “shore” consisting of tasks that humans and machines are equally able to perform and, beyond them an “ocean” of tasks best done by machines. When machines get cheaper or smarter or both, the water level rises, as it were, and the shore moves inland.

This sea change has two effects. First, machines will substitute for humans by taking over newly “flooded” tasks. Second, doing machine tasks better complements human tasks, raising the value of doing them well. Human wages may rise or fall, depending on which effect is stronger.

...human labor would no longer earn most income. Owners of real estate or of businesses that build, maintain, or supply machines would see their wealth grow at a fabulous rate—about as fast as the economy grows. Interest rates would be similarly great.Any small part of this wealth should allow humans to live comfortably somewhere, even if not as all-powerful gods. Because copying a machine mind would be cheap, training and education would cost no more than a software update. Instead of long years to train each worker, a few machines would be trained intensely, and then many copies would be made of the very best trainees. _IEEESpectrum__via__DennisMangan

Read the entire piece at the link above. The underlying logic is sound, and when human-level or superior-to-human machine intellects are finally produced--combined with nano-robotic assemblers--the structure of human economies will change most profoundly. The winners will be those positioned to take advantage of the new machine expertise--in decision making and in production. The losers will be the ones replaced by machines, or sidelined by machine decisions.

Personally, I suspect that the development of an intentional, above human level intelligent machine that is reliable enough to be set loose at the executive levels of a large enterprise, is more than a few decades away. But once such machines can be quickly and easily produced, the consequent massive transition in industry and economics will shake the entire world.

The hunting, farming, and industrial revolutions did not affect all human groups the same. Neither will the development of machine replacements for most human labour and decision-making. Production and decision making will center initially where the new technologies were developed, and will then disperse initially according to classical laws of economics. Then you will have the counterfeiters, smugglers, industrial espionage, sabotage, black market activities centered around the new technologies--and assisted by the new technologies. Eventually, if the machine thinkers are given enough autonomy and intentionality, the superior machine intellects would organise their own networks--sometimes including humans at mid-level or higher, often not.

The concept of the "next level", promoted at all Al Fin Syndicate blogs, is distinguishable from the typical "singularity" scenarios by one key difference--the next level focuses on human capability and competence, rather than machine. Next level humans will be trained specifically to deal with issues of economy, evolving ecologies of all types, production, complex interacting systems . . . and intelligent machines. The next level means to keep humans in the control loop by focusing on the evolution of humans.

Humans with a healthy lifespan of 500 years, an average IQ of 200 or above, the ability to prosper in a variety of environments on Earth and off Earth, eager to grow, learn, and experiment . . . such humans bring more to the table than whiny psychologically neotenised (PN) humans who want to be taken care of by an all-powerful nanny state, perhaps run by intelligent machines. Until the machines decide the PN humans are more trouble than they are worth.

The future is not written in stone. Humans will achieve the future they deserve--whether that future is obliteration by an asteroid humans failed to plan for, or a new stone age under the administration of religious fanatics swarming out of the desert third world. Nothing good will happen by itself.

5% vs. 95%. Five per cent of humans make possible the transitions to a higher productivity future, which the other 95% of humans hope to profit from. But will they? Look at the other singularities. Hunting technology. Farming technology. Industrial production technologies. Someone was always left out. Who will it be this time?

More Information:

IEEE Singularity
More Singularity Resources

National Wealth and Poverty In the Age of Knowledge

Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen imply in Intelligence and the Wealth and Poverty of Nations, that nations whose average population IQs were less than 90 IQ points could not prosper in a high technology world. This idea was a clear divergence from Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations concept based on division of labour.Lynn and Vanhanen's ideas appear to be backed up by the graphic above, and by The Smart Fraction Theory of IQ and the Wealth of Nations. Still, as important as human capital is to a nation's wealth, there is more to human capital than a nation's population average IQ.
In Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations, David Warsh puts a new twist on long-standing pillars of economics:

Thus instead of land, labor and capital -- the traditional inputs of economic theory -- it was "people, ideas and things" that mattered, driving technological change and entrepreneurial creativity. "No longer were the advantages of technical superiority to be understood as a case of 'market failure,'" Mr. Warsh writes. "They were part of the rules of the game." Such superiority was by its nature temporary -- i.e., nonmonopolistic. New knowledge constantly trumped old, and the law (rightly) gave ideas only limited property-protection.

More and more, economists came to see that it was knowledge that made the difference in modern societies -- e.g., in software, drugs, industrial processes, biotechnology and other parts of the economy where the upfront costs were large, the payoffs enormous and the benefits widespread. Economists inevitably turned their attention to the institutions or invisible structures -- constitutions, customs, property rights, cultural sentiments (like trust) -- that help to generate knowledge and sustain its effects.

In his admirably compelling account of economic thinking over time -- from Adam Smith to the present day -- Mr. Warsh shows a certain partiality to abstract mathematical theory. He might have given more credit to the thinkers such as Friedrich Hayek, the great philosopher of freedom and opponent of central planning; or to historians such as Joel Mokyr, who has chronicled the effects (as the subtitle of one of his books has it) of "technological creativity and economic progress"; or to popularizers such as George Gilder, who has documented (and celebrated) the role of knowledge in economic growth, especially in our computer age.

Source
If knowledge determines the wealth of nations in the global economy, why does GDP correlate so well with population average IQ (with a few easily explained outliers)? Clearly, knowledge and IQ are highly inter-correlated themselves.

Still, when you look at nations with GDPs well above what would be predicted from average population IQ, an important truth about "knowledge and the wealth of nations" jumps out. Nations that economically outperform their population average IQ have a market dominant minority to thank.

According to Chua, other examples of ethnic market-dominant minorities include Chinese people in Southeast Asia; "whites" in Latin America; Jews in Russia; Croats in the former Yugoslavia; and Ibos, Kikuyus, Tutsis, Indians and Lebanese, among others, in Africa

It is suggested that the USA (and to an extent the Anglosphere, Europe, and Japan) constitutes a global "market dominant minority" in the sense of setting the economic rules, providing the market infrastructure, and militarily protecting the trading routes of the world so the market can function.

An even more intriguing twist to this dynamic: if executive function (EF) is indeed more important to the success of individuals than their IQ, and if EF can be taught (unlike IQ), is it not possible that EF can be taught to entire nations of children, thus increasing the future prosperity of the entire nation? I suspect this possiblity is real.

This concept of a minority providing extensive unacknowledged benefits to the majority can help a larger audience begin to understand how a next level civilisation would benefit the much larger between-levels civilisation with which it would co-exist on the planet. The accelerated outpouring of revolutionary scientific discoveries and technological inventions from a next level civilisation would benefit the between-levels by creating a cleaner, healthier, more affluent environment for everyone.

The same idea holds in principle for a singularity civilisation guided by a "friendly artificial intelligence." The abundance created by a FAI would be there to be enjoyed by the masses, in theory. Even without FAI's, a world where abundant nano-assemblers can efficiently and economically produce essentially unlimited numbers of consumer goods and vital infrastructure, is a world unrecognizable to modern doomseekers of Peak Oil, CAGW, population crisis, and other neo-Malthusian congregations of Luddites.

Utopia is In Your Mind--Enjoy It

Nick Bostrom continues to update his classic "Letter From Utopia."

Have you ever known a moment of bliss? On the rapids of inspiration, maybe, where your hands were guided by a greater force to trace the shapes of truth and beauty? Or perhaps you found such a moment in the ecstasy of love? Or in a glorious success achieved with good friends? Or in splendid conversation on a vine-overhung terrace one star-appointed night? Or perhaps there was a song or a melody that smuggled itself into your heart, setting it alight with kaleidoscopic emotion? Or during worship?

If you have experienced such a moment, experienced the best type of such a moment, then a certain idle but sincere thought may have presented itself to you: “Oh Heaven! I didn’t realize it could feel like this. This is on a different level, so very much more real and worthwhile. Why can’t it be like this always? Why must good times end? I was sleeping; now I am awake.”

Bostrom seeks to convey to present-day humanity what their existence might be like if it were substantially elevated.

What I have is not merely more of what is available to you now. It isn’t just the particular things, the paintings and toothpaste-tube designs, the record covers and books, the epochs, lives, leaves, rivers, and random encounters, the satellite images and the collider data – it is also the complex relationships between these particulars that make up my mind. There are ideas that can be formed only on top of such a wide experience base. There are depths that can be fathomed only with such ideas.

You could say I am happy, that I feel good. You could say that I feel surpassing bliss. But these are words invented to describe human experience. What I feel is as far beyond human feelings as my thoughts are beyond human thoughts. I wish I could show you what I have in mind. If only I could share one second of my conscious life with you!

Bostrom joins other writers from the distant past: More, Bacon, Bellamy, Plato, Huxley and many others who have made the attempt to paint their longings (and warnings) in words so that they must be understood. These several authors have sought to motivate their readers--to awaken them from complacency and inefficacy. To inspire them to grow beyond their present selves and tendencies.

I have always been drawn toward the dystopian side of the literature. It is the marvelous feeling of awakening from the Orwellian nightmare into a bracing reality that drives much of my selection in leisure reading. Looking up from Bradbury's Fahrenheit 451 to glance across the thousands of books in my library, or pausing a moment from A Clockwork Orange to gently stroke the soft hair of my bedmate.

Likewise, in science fiction, I am drawn to the apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic. The challenge of preserving civilisation through the apocalypse--or of jump-starting civilisation in a post-apocalyptic era--is stimulating. Certainly I would prefer to move straight through the present into a next level future, without the apocalypse. But we should always count on something going wrong, at some point.

As for utopia, it really is up to us. Utopia, like happiness or heaven, is in our minds. We can cultivate it or neglect it.

In terms of future society, my utopia is not what they call the "singularity." My utopia is an open-ended future where at least 10% of humans (hopefully a much higher proportion) are empowered by brighter minds, longer lives, wiser perspectives, and a compassionate desire to take enlightened life into the cosmos. My utopia is a utopia-by-choice, so that I would never expect every human to choose it.

Many modern day persons are content with a climate-controlled place to watch cable/satellite HD television, play high-res video games, or enjoy alternate reality VR immersion. Preferably with an infinite supply and under the influence of their drug of choice. Others immerse themselves in missionary religious fervour, some even willing to kill the infidel to create their utopia. Still others are content to work, raise a small family, enjoy hobbies and limited interests, and thus serve out their time. Some cluster together with like-minded people to create the closest approximation to utopia their mind can hold. And another category of people see themselves as wolves, to prey on all the rest who they see as sheep.

Even in the era of my utopia--the next level--there will be examples of all of those groups and more, who choose not to participate in my particular utopia. Some will opt out because they have their own visions of utopia. Others simply can not be bothered.

Sent to Subdue the World, With Minds Full of Hate

Islam is not, strictly speaking, a "religion" as we in the west define religion. It is a totalitarian socio-religio-political system from the middle ages--with grand ambitions of world conquest. The Muslim Council of Britain--financed by UK government grants and contributions from Saudi Arabian Wahabists etc.--is considered a "mainstream" religious organisation, and attempts to maintain a public face of peace and tolerance. But what is really going on behind the benign public face of the MCB, inside the UK's mosques?

Books calling for the beheading of lapsed Muslims, ordering women to remain indoors and forbidding interfaith marriage are being sold inside some of Britain’s leading mosques, according to research seen by The Times.

Some of the fundamentalist works were found at the bookshop in the London Central mosque in Regent’s Park, which is funded by the Saudi regime and is regularly visited by government ministers. Its director, Ahmad al-Dubayan, is also a Saudi diplomat and was among those greeting King Abdullah when he arrived in Britain last night for his official state visit.

Extremist literature, including passages supporting the stoning of adulterers and waging violent jihad, was also found on sale at many other mosques regarded as mainstream institutions.

Times Online

While some scholars claim that Wahabism is marginalised as a force within Islam, the Wahabi money trail tells a different story. It is not only in Britain and Australia that Saudi oil money is used to finance the warping of young minds toward fanatical violence and destruction. The trail of blood leads back to the primitive sands from virtually every western and third world country with an appreciable population or strategic location.

Islam has bloody borders, and the responsibility for that blood lies mainly with Wahabi supporters in the Sunni gulf states, and with the oil sponsored theocracy of Iran.

When otherwise intelligent people attack non-violent Christianity and Judaism, while giving the bloody, violent Islamist movement a free pass, the message sent to Islamist fanatics is that the west is so involved in attacking its own weakened belief systems that it has no time or energy to defend itself from an outside attack.

When Osama bin Laden confidently predicted that the Americans would be quick and easy to defeat in Afghanistan, should the US ever think to attack Al Qaeda in its Taliban protected stronghold, he was expressing the timeless view of the primitive and vital toward the sophisticated and decadent. When a more advanced nation or civilisation becomes so decadent as to continuously attack itself without regard for dangers from the outside, it makes itself appear to be easy prey.

The western world has achieved a momentum in world affairs that cannot be completely explained by natural resources, geography, national cultures, relative intelligence, exploitation of the primitive world, tropical diseases, or just luck. The pre-eminence of the western world can certainly not be explained by divine guidance, genocidal mania, or alien intervention.

Just a few more decades and humans will have the keys to significantly longer and healthier lives. We will stand at the doorway of augmented minds and senses. The universe itself appears to wait on the decisions of humans, for the future. Can we hold off the wolves that are nipping at our heels (from within and without) long enough to achieve the level that allows us to begin our long journey?

Letter from Utopia

Nick Bostrom has captured the essence of the "next level" in his Letter from Utopia.

I am really writing on behalf of my contemporaries, and we are addressing ourselves to all of your contemporaries. Among our numbers are many who are possible futures of your people. Some of us are possible futures of children that you have not yet given birth to. Some of us are possible artificial persons that you may one day create. What unites us is that we are all dependent on you to make us real. You could think of this note as though it were an invitation to a ball - a ball that will only take place if people turn up.

...The challenge I put before you is one of self-transformation. To grow up. This is not only about technology, but technology is necessary to participate in this way of life. If you want to live and play on my level, you need to acquire new capacities. To reach Utopia, and experience life here, you must discover the means to three fundamental transformations.

• The First Transformation: Extend your life.
• The Second Transformation: Amplify your cognition.
• The Third Transformation: Elevate your well-being

...When you embark on this quest [utopia], you will confront high seas and difficult problems. To solve them will take your best science, your best technology, and your best politics. Yet each problem has a solution. My existence violates no law of nature. The materials are all there. Your people must acquire the skills of master builders, and then you must build yourself up, without crushing yourself.

Do not accept that it is good for you and your friends to get sick and die in a cage. Do not assume that it's a blessing to be forever confined behind the fences of stupidity. Do not believe that there is nothing worth experiencing outside your current psychic limitations.

...We love life here every instant. Every second is so good that it would knock you unconscious had your mind not been strengthened beforehand. My contemporaries and I bear witness, and we are requesting your aid. Please, help us come into existence! Please, join us! Whether this tremendous possibility becomes a reality depends on your actions.

Nick Bostrom

The "Twelve Step" programs utilise the concept of "something greater than oneself" in order to provide the motive power for self-improvement and emergence from dead-end living. Seekers of utopia or the next level can do the same in order to push themselves to achieve even higher goals.

This is what many of the world's religions seem to be reaching for. But without the ability to extend the mind's reach and the life's span, the elevation of well-being and mind states can only be heart-breakingly transient.

Accelerating Future--Top Ten Cybernetic Enhancements

Cybernetic enhancements are a necessary phase in the move to next level humans. Michael Anissimov posted this fascinating post about likely cybernetic/cyborg enhancements last week, but I was too busy to post at that time. Looking at it with a bit more time, I see that I was negligent in not pointing it out to readers.

Who can argue with this list of enhancements?

1. Immortality
2. Superintelligence
3. Ability to Fly
4. Autopoiesis
5. Psychokinesis
6. Easy Appearance Upgrades
7. Super Strength
8. Brain-Computer Interface
9. Telephoto-Microscopic-Full Spectrum Vision
10. Immunity to Disease

If I were making my wishlist, I would probably add "rapid healing from injury", and portable inertial dampers and matter/energy shields. If you have superintelligence, superstrength, and immortality, you can probably work out ways to get most of the things you want.

To be a next-level human, you also must have wisdom and character. Without wisdom and character, a superintelligent immortal would be a curse to humanity.

The Next Level vs. The Singularity

When referring to the progress of humans, I typically refer to the impending higher stage of mental and physical development of humans as "the next level." The term, "the singularity," is reserved for a technological evolution of increasing machine sophistication (including nanotech) and increasing sophistication of information technologies. The singularity can occur without significant change in human nature, simply because science and technology development does not require very many people, in relative numbers. The people involved in advancing science and technology are special individuals, in terms of mental capacity, but they are a tiny minority of all persons. The singularity is a technological and scientific event.

The next level is a human event, the transformation of humans. At the present time, what I call "between-levels humans" are simply too short-lived and too stupid to take care of this part of the universe. Look at the pollution, the religious wars, the third world deforestation, the primitive and wasteful energy technologies. Look at the insane politics, the oppression, the dictators starving their people. Look at the drug abuse, the general escapism, the strong drive to retire without ever achieving anything.

Technological and scientific advances can occur at a dazzling rate, and not change basic humanity. There will be more sophisticated means of escape, virtual reality being one such grail to be sought. Machine intelligence is looked on by many as either a benign form of slavery, or as an act of creating another intelligent species with which to commune. The more likely result of machine intelligence is a dizzying escalation of non-human intelligence, engineered by non-humans, for the benefit of non-humans.

That is, unless humans become more intelligent themselves, intelligent enough to understand and anticipate their creations, before they are created. The laws of complexity suggest that emergent phenomena can always surprise a designer. Simple starting rules give birth to complex resultant phenomena. Being aware of that, next level humans will conduct their experiments in contained environments, in some cases environments surrounded by the vacuum of space.

Humans must become more intelligent, and longer lived. There has always been a shortage of wise, intelligent, experienced humans. Look at contemporary society in the western world, where the vanity and rashness of youth are valued over the wisdom and perspective of maturity. Passion and excitement are valued, which is good, but they are valued above many other things that are more integral to a satisfying life.

We must not allow ourselves to lag too far behind our technology. Evolution by natural selection is a slow worker, requiring millenia and millions of years to accomplish great things. Evolution has done its work on each of us, for good or ill. But now we are not content to wait. Diabetics take genetically engineered insulin, in order to live and function. Critically ill patients in emergency wards and ICUs are given genetically engineered potions to allow them to survive the crisis and heal. Victims of malignant tumors are given genetically engineered drugs to combat their malignancies, and other genetically engineered drugs to help their bodies rebuild.

We drink milk produced by cows given genetically engineered BGH. We consume breads and pastas made from genetically engineered grains. We are encouraged by the improvement of health in third world countries, where genetically engineered "golden rice" prevents illness and death of children.

Genetic engineering, and soon stem cells and tissue engineering, are becoming a natural part of daily human existence. Most people shy away from the gene engineering of the human genome, but that too is becoming more common. Innocent children, through no fault of their own, are born with fatal genetic illnesses. In the opulent western world, we are generally happy to do whatever we can to provide these unfortunates with any advantage possible, including genetic therapies.

On the singularity side, cyborg technologies are becoming extremely common. Cochlear implants prepare the way for retinal implants. High technology titanium prosthetics make way to pressure sensing and active responding prosthetics. We are becoming more comfortable with the idea of prosthetic technologies to assist in compensating for any deficits. Mental prosthetics are very near, in fact in many ways personal computers and communications networks are forms of mental prosthesis, taking over from the printed page and spoken word.

What I am referring to with this discussion, is the difference between a consciousness that is biologically enhanced, and a consciousness that is technologically enhanced. Yes, I realize that technology is involved in any "artificial" enhancements. The distinction is useful, nonetheless. Next levels put humans first, singularitarians put technology first, whether intentionally or not.

A later discussion will take up "the technology reflex."

Across the Gulf of Species

Can you talk to a whale? Can you communicate with a gorilla? Can you describe your deepest hopes and fears to your cat, and expect it to understand and feel sympathy? There is a gulf, a chasm, that separates us from other species. Part of the gulf comes from the different evolutionary paths our respective brains have followed. Another part of the separation comes from the different experiences in the womb and after. Different upbringings don't you know, what?

Communicating with a next level human will not be as difficult. Neither will it be as easy as communicating with your identical twin, or other sibling. Part of the problem will be that we will not be communicating as equals.

Imagine a family where one of the siblings is bright, happy, and successful. Everything he does shines and prospers. Now imagine another sibling in the family whose mood is always dark, who stumbles in his thoughts when trying to solve most problems, who is never able to finish a task, who reaches for chemical solutions to his problems. Think of the two siblings sitting down and trying to relate to each other.

These two are not equal in their ability to earn a living, to have satisfying relationships with other people, to solve daily problems and plan exciting and enjoyable leisure time. They will live in different environments, drive different cars, dwell on problems of entirely different levels. Their range of travel will be different, their scope of thought will be different, their ultimate ambitions will be different. Yet they will both end in the same place. Is it really true that "all is vanity?"

What if the happy sibling lives 500 years, while the dark, brooding, addicted sibling lives only 80 years, and produces nothing much more than his own unhappiness, spread among a few friends? What if, on the other hand, the happy one sires dozens of children, happy like himself and intelligent? What if "happy" invents solutions to shortages of energy, solutions to hazardous environmental pollutants, cures for degenerative diseases, means to travel to outer space more economically and more safely? What if "happy" is survived by dozens of children, hundreds of grandchildren, and thousands of great-grandchildren--all of whom he had a chance to meet, know, and love? Would the lives of "happy" and "unhappy" be equally vain and pointless?

At the time "unhappy" is lying down on his deathbed, with great relief, "happy" is just getting started. Happy may attend his brother's funeral, if he is on Earth at the time. Or he may send flowers if he is too far away. Regardless, "happy" will quickly move on to his plans and goals, momentarily saddened at the wasted life of brother "unhappy," but soon busy with his life. Will "happy" ponder at the vast waste of millions, or billions of "unhappies?" Probably, from time to time. Not for long. There will be too many things to be done.

Is "happy" good or bad, for humanity as it is? A few "happies" could solve many of humankind's most difficult and intransigent proglems. Between level humans might tolerate a few, like they tolerate a few mega-billionaires among them. If "happy" started producing hundreds, or thousands of progeny "happies," a clash of cultures would be inevitable. Between-levels would feel threatened, for their own sake and for the sake of their children. "Happy" must realize this.

To be a "happy," will be to cross the gulf of species. To cross the gulf, but to never stop looking back and beckoning your cousins to cross with you.

Thanks to Sam Cardon.

500 Year Lifespan

Next level humans will live at least 500 years, which by itself would give them a different psychological approach to life. Being responsible will become second nature.

If you know you will live for 500 years or longer, you will take a different approach to your life. You will expect to see multiple careers, and probably multiple marriages. You will have time to accumulate significant wealth and will probably live under several different political systems over time. Politicians will not be able to bullshit a next level human.

Space travel will be commonplace within the next 500 years, perhaps travel to other star systems, but certainly travel to habitable settlements on other planets and planetoids in the solar system. You will expect travel to be quite safe, and trauma support in case of accident to be prompt and expert, perhaps provided by robodoc under some circumstances.

Why would people have children if they are living 500 years? There will be no real need to live through your children if you yourself are living so long. The danger of overpopulation will be significant unless new frontiers are opened beyond the surface of earth.

If people are living 500 years or more, they will have to be completely responsible for the children they create. It is unlikely that people who are irresponsible or incompetent will ever become next level humans.

Victim thinking will not exist among next levels. This must seem threatening to individuals who make their living exploiting victim thinking among large groups of people. TS.

Rugged Transition

Getting to the next level from here is going to be very hard. Our tax supported schools are turning out morons. Our news and popular media are geared to a second grade level of understanding of the world. Our pension plans are financial time bombs guaranteed to destroy our economies within twenty years. We are letting in immigrants who have sworn to destroy our civilisation. A self hating multiculturalism is in control of our universities and most government agencies. When most people think of economics, they think of government spending and redistributing wealth--never about creating wealth in the first place.

Getting to the next level from here is going to be very hard. But not impossible. The reason I say that is that not everybody needs to go on to the next level for the transition to count. It is estimated that one tenth of the population does 95% of the thinking and producing for the other 90% of the population. When it comes to transitioning to next level existence, the ratio may be closer to 5:95, or less. Never mind. Next level humans will be incredibly potent.

Modern welfare state mentality has taken over western civilisation, even the USA. Western people have taken the lazy way, the way of the functionary, the wage slave, the sedentary. Obesity is not a disease, it is a symptom of the disease. Drug addiction is not a disease, it is another symptom of the same disease. Alcoholism, juvenile delinquency, poverty. The disease is being stuck between primitive, subsistence level humanity, and the next level of human existence. The big mistake that most people make is believing that since a few humans are able to design sophisticated machines, medicines, and financial systems, that they themselves by virtue of profiting from the ingenuity of these other people are more than primitive level humans. Even most people with college educations and professional training are little more than primitive level humans. That is exactly where most of them will stay for the rest of their lives until they die.

Ten percent support the other ninety percent. That will continue to work for our modern between level civilisation until it doesn't work anymore. Then the future will depend upon how hard our between level civilisation falls, and how soon it happens. If more than 1% or 2% have made the transition to the next level, it may be enough. Enough of the financial and scientific infrastructure has to survive to let the next levels bootstrap large numbers of between levels up. Already there are thousands of potential next levels, lacking only the biotechnological breakthroughs needed to retard their bodies' aging process. They have already matured mentally, emotionally, and financially. Unfortunately they often do not have time to procreate, or to teach very many others the things they have learned. In other words the line of progress stops with them, in 70 years or less. What a waste.

The next level is not inevitable. Most people cannot even imagine what it would mean. The billionaire Ted Turner thinks that the world would be fine if only he could make nearly six billion people disappear. He and people who think like him think that would cure the world's problems. Cretins.

Extropians talk about the singularity and downloading of consciousness into computers. That type of thinking is basically magical in nature, much like the divine skyhook rescue envisioned by many religious people.

I will be content for a self-sustaining number of humans to achieve the next level in the next 60 or 70 years, in my lifetime.

What are Next Level Humans?

You might be wondering what I mean by the term, "next level humans." A next level human society will mark a dramatic turning point for human history.

I consider the present human living in a western society as being a "between levels human." No longer primitive, but not really fully functional. A primitive human saw himself as constantly at the mercy of the gods, or the elements. Only a few primitive humans sought to master their own fates, and they generally did so by enslaving everyone around them and forcing them to work to make the few masters rich at the expense of the many. This is the pattern one sees in primitive nations such as Zimbabwe, Cuba, and Burma.

Modern people believe in self-government, in taking some responsibility for oneself, to varying degrees. They pay lip service to science and human ingenuity and personal responsibility, while the less emancipated demand that governments take care of their needs from the cradle to the grave.

Intelligence is clearly related to genetic factors, but the most intelligent persons fail to reproduce to replacement levels and the least intelligent persons often procreate to double or triple replacement levels. This is dysgenic. What is worse, it is frequently being financed with public funding. All that is justified by an appeal to compassion. It is irrational in the sense that it is guaranteed to create far more hardship in the future.

Next level humans will better understand how to increase intelligence levels in themselves and in the next generations. Next level humans will have to make many hard decisions based upon goals with a longer time scale than between-level humans are accustomed to. Next level humans will not expect a government to take constant care of them, nor will they expect some divine skyhook to drop from the sky to rescue them from a tight spot.