tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-134154022024-03-18T20:51:10.611-07:00Al Fin<i>Priceless treasure guide disguised as the confused ramblings of a misanthropic iconoclast. Seeking the next level is not a quest for the timid, not for the easily discouraged.</i>al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.comBlogger4039125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-59399110108467816262013-01-27T09:48:00.000-08:002013-01-27T09:49:42.575-08:00Children Cannot Be Taught, But They Can Learn<blockquote>
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Children are not taught, they learn. How well and how much they will learn depends upon the skills that they master, long before they are aware that they are learning. Whether or not they have the chance to master those skills depends upon their caretakers.</i></span></blockquote>
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Even the best of us is limited in what we can learn and what we can conceive. Such limitations applied to Albert Einstein and they apply to you, and your dangerous child. But all of us can learn ways to push against our limits, if we wish. Most people never come close.
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<iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Fd2R5ZIh8DY" width="560"></iframe>
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The video above, "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fd2R5ZIh8DY">Cognitive Limits</a>," is a useful introduction to the cognitive science of attention, memory, and learning.<br />
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Concepts of "<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/attentionandmemory/home/workshop-summary-and-talks">Attention and Memory</a>" are key to understanding how a relatively inexperienced and ignorant human infant can develop into a skilled walking and talking toddler who is into everything he can reach, learning and remembering as he goes.<br />
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Everyone is limited in what he can hold in his short-term working memory -- some more limited than others. Likewise, each person is limited as to how many active thinking processes he can maintain simultaneously -- how many dynamic activities he can keep track of.<br />
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Brief intro. to Cognitive Load Theory:<br />
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In essence, cognitive load theory proposes that since working memory is limited, learners may be bombarded by information and, if the complexity of their instructional materials is not properly managed, this will result in a cognitive overload. This cognitive overload impairs schema acquisition, later resulting in a lower performance (Sweller, 1988). Cognitive load theory had a theoretical precedence in the educational and psychological literature, well before Sweller’s 1988 article (e.g. Beatty, 1977; Marsh, 1978). Even Baddeley and Hitch (1974) considered “concurrent memory load” but Sweller’s cognitive load theory was among the first to consider working memory, as it related to learning and the design of instruction...<br />
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...Schema acquisition is the ultimate goal of cognitive load theory. Anderson’s ACT framework proposes initial schema acquisition occurs by the development of schema-based production rules, but these production rules may be developed by one of two methods (Anderson, Fincham, & Douglass, 1997), either by developing these rules during practice or by studying examples. The second method (studying examples) is the most cognitively efficient method of instruction (Sweller & Chandler, 1985; Cooper and Sweller, 1987; Paas and van Merriënboer, 1993). This realization became one of the central tenets of cognitive load theory.
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Once learners have acquired a schema, those patterns of behavior (schemas) may be practiced to promote skill automation (Anderson, 1982; Kalyuga, Ayres, Chandler, and Sweller, 2003; Shiffrin & Schneider, 1977; Sweller, 1993) but expertise occurs much later in the process, and is when a learner automates complex cognitive skills (Shiffrin & Schneider, 1977), usually via problem solving. _<a href="http://dlewis123.wordpress.com/cognitive-load-theory/">Cognitive Load Theory</a></blockquote>
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Reference examples for the deeply interested who have a research bent:<br />
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<a href="http://www.ai.rug.nl/%7Eniels/publications/Borst2010.pdf">Cognitive Bottleneck in Multitasking (PDF)</a><br />
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<a href="http://cognaction.org/rick/pdfs/confpapers/snydertapp_dale_2009.pdf">Dynamic Competition and the Cognitive Bottleneck (PDF)</a><br />
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Advanced educators not only try to introduce useful "schemas" to the learner -- they also try to choose conceptual schemas that will be useful in multiple contexts:<br />
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Students do not automatically connect, apply, or extrapolate what they know to other learning contexts. So what foundations can we put in place to ensure we are dong the best we can to nurture conceptual understanding and seek its transfer to new contexts? Here is my attempt to map out a few strategies that work for me:</div>
<ol style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Make transfer the big goal of conceptual teaching and learning</b> – always have ideas in mind about how students can transfer their conceptual understandings and skills to new contexts.</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Concepts over content </b>– think big picture not activities. The exploration of concepts during collaborative teacher planning sessions will lead to a multitude of activities that can be applied in the classroom – the activities will always take care of themselves!</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Less is more</b> – working with fewer conceptual understandings means that you can use and extend the knowledge and skills students present in a meaningful, formative way – be mindful.</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prior knowledge </b>– Take the time to nurture student’s interest and avenues into the concepts you are teaching.</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Authentic assessment</b> – map out the formative and summative assessment opportunities that are likely to arise through the teaching and learning experiences. Through these opportunities, challenge student’s misconceptions, stereotypes and tendencies toward rigid thinking.</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Levels of transfer</b> – transfer can happen on a “near” level where contexts can be very similar, or transfer can happen on a “far” level where the context is more abstract and removed from the original learning, some learners are natural abstract thinkers, others are not.</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Think discriminatively</b> – be measured about when opportunities arise for students to apply transfer, be mindful about when you can make it happen authentically, create opportunities for success and not failure.</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></i><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Value thinking, nurture it and make it visible</b> – train and engage students in a variety of daily thinking routines, use Socratic questioning in discussions to connect new ideas with existing knowledge. <i style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Metacognition, metacognition, metacognition!!</i></li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nurture the potential of transfer in younger students</b> – (EY- G1) value and reflect upon the meaning of children’s connections in collaboration with others. Make children’s connections visible and a part of discussion for other learners.</li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Homework</b> – getting students to apply what they are learning in class and explore the meaning of concepts to their own lives can provide rich and diverse opportunities for transfer. Infinitely more valuable than completing worksheets!</li>
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_<a href="http://makingthinkingvisible.wordpress.com/2011/03/01/conceptual-learning-in-a-thinking-classroom-teaching-for-transfer/">Conceptual Learning in Classroom</a></blockquote>
In terms of modern classroom educational practise, many of these ideas are more useful than a lot of what one sees -- if they are ever applied in anything but the rare, ideal classroom setting, which is unlikely. <br />
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More commonly, the best of theoretical intentions go badly awry when the rubber meets the road. This is particularly true when the masses of teachers attempt to implement the conceptual ideas and schemas of theorists, most of which they themselves only vaguely comprehend.<br />
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<b>Remember: <i><u>The teacher does not teach.</u></i></b> Instead, the learner learns. If the learner's mind is not structured and ready to learn the concept for the day, it will not matter how well the teacher has prepared his lesson.<br />
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The learning mind must be "empowered" from the earliest age, and continuously reinforced -- until it is the child himself who is doing the reinforcing. This self-reinforcement occurs at different ages for different children -- even under the most ideal conditions. Young Mozart, for example, required much less external reinforcement to achieve a given level of mastery than did young Salieri.<br />
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So far, we have skipped around one of the central issues: how to learn difficult concepts which do not come naturally to most children. We know that boosting self-esteem doesn't work for that. We know that paying a cash reward doesn't work. Even the promise of sensory pleasure and euphoric mind states are limited in how well they will expand the learner's conceptual grasp, within apparently innate cognitive and conceptual limits.<br />
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But we must learn to walk before we learn to run a marathon up a mountain. This is a blog, not a textbook. Our approach will necessarily seem a bit scattered and of variable depth. Readers may choose to stop reading and abandon the quest at any time, without penalty.<br />
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That is not necessarily the case for those who work at the Al Fin Dangerous Child Institute.al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-13396271717210608542013-01-20T11:00:00.000-08:002013-01-20T11:00:01.629-08:00Habits are not Like Hobbits: They Don't Just Disappear<b><i>Taken from an article published on <a href="http://alfin2101.blogspot.com">Al Fin, the Next Level</a></i></b>
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Even without magic rings, hobbits tend to disappear when one closes a book or turns off the DVD player. They may persist for a short time in the mind, but they tend to fade fairly quickly.<br />
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Habits, once formed, tend to stick around -- sometimes for one's entire life. That is one reason why it is important for children to form habits that help them to fulfill their life goals, and form them while they are still quite young.<br />
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The following is a list of useful habits that will serve a dangerous child well, at any age:<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gxtylb0p4zE/UPtSVP9szqI/AAAAAAAAN2Y/5Fo627LCV4M/s1600/EF_HabitsofMind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gxtylb0p4zE/UPtSVP9szqI/AAAAAAAAN2Y/5Fo627LCV4M/s640/EF_HabitsofMind.png" width="588" /></a><center><a href="http://www.chsvt.org/wdp/Habits_of_Mind.pdf">Habits of Mind PDF</a></center></div>
<br /></div><br>The core of the 16 habits of mind is found in the list above, and brief explanations for them are found in the embedded slideshare below. Those who are acquainted with the concept of frontal lobe "executive function" (EF) will immediately see the similarity between the 16 habits of mind, and strong frontal lobe EF.
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<iframe src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/1311202" width="579" height="581" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid #CCC;border-width:1px 1px 0;margin-bottom:5px" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen> </iframe> <div style="margin-bottom:5px"> <strong> <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/suziea/habits-of-mind-explained-for-students" title="Habits of Mind explained for students" target="_blank">Habits of Mind explained for students</a> </strong> from <strong><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/suziea" target="_blank">Suzie Vesper</a></strong> </div><br><center>Explanations of Habits of Mind</center><br><br>
Habits are usually formed unconsciously, and can be very difficult to eradicate if found to be dysfunctional or destructive. <br><br>
Smart psychologists understand that habits can be displaced, or substituted. <a href="http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2012/07/17/the-golden-rule-of-habit-change/">Habits are thought to consist of a "cue," a "behaviour," and a "reward."</a> The cue triggers the habitual behaviour, which supplies the reward that feeds the entire cycle.<br><br>
If the person can disconnect the cue from the dysfunctional behaviour, and re-connect the cue to a more functional and less destructive behaviour which can supply a sufficient reward, the destructive habitual cycle can be displaced or substituted by a more positive habitual cycle.<br><br>
Even more advanced ways of dealing with habits are being developed in mice,<a href="http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2013/01/17/habit-formation-and-the-rat-race/"> using optogenetics.</a> By interfering with the infralimbic portion of the mouse's prefrontal cortex, researchers were able to break unconscious ingrained habits. But unless the habits were "overwritten" or replaced by new habits, the old habits tended to return.<br><br>
It is best to learn good habits from the very beginning. That is one reason why many of the most enlightened parents put strict limits on exposure to television, video games, and other popular entertainments, until the child has developed strong habits of self direction and goal fulfillment.<br><br>
The workings of a habit often occur unconsciously, just as the formation of a habit can do. In that sense, habitual behaviours can occur very much like hypnotic trance behaviours. And indeed, some of the most effective hypnotic trances tend to be those which incorporate unconscious habits of behaviour.<br><br>
More on this idea later, on another blog.
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Learning and Leading with Habits of Mind is a book edited by two educators, Arthur Costa and Bena Kallick, found <a href="http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/108008.aspx">here.</a> An important caveat regarding the book: Like most modern cogs in the machine of modern educational theory, Costa and Kallick appear to be caught up in the "blank slate" delusion of thinking which was refuted so effectively by Steven Pinker, in his book "The Blank Slate." If the reader is able to understand that this underlying philosophical and biological confusion underlies many of the confused ideas which are mixed in with a number of useful ideas about habits of learning, a quick scan of the book can be worthwhile.<br><br>
Otherwise, a study of prefrontal lobe executive function is likely to be much more satisfying and edifying, if the reader is easily able to apply the ideas to childhood learning and development.al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-41194132177558027952013-01-20T00:30:00.000-08:002013-01-20T00:30:00.079-08:00Peak Oil Doom In Context<b><i>Previously published on <a href="http://alfin2300.blogspot.com">Al Fin Energy</a></i></b>
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<span style="font-size: large;">...Peak Oil catastrophism is largely a manifestation of our primary cultural myth: that all things end with suffering, death, and then resurrection. Belief in apocalypse is programmed into western civilization. Given our heritage, “the end is nigh” is the nearly unavoidable personal and collective response to times of uncertainty and rapid change. </span>_<a href="http://www.patternliteracy.com/130-the-origins-of-peak-oil-doomerism">Pattern Literacy</a></blockquote>
<a href="http://reason.com/archives/2006/05/05/peak-oil-panic">Peak oil predictions go back at least to the 1850's</a>. Predictions of "the end of oil" have been with us as long as oil itself.<br />
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Peak oil has a longer history than you think. Although the models that define the American peak oil hypothesis were first advanced in the 1950s, predictions of the imminent depletion of American oil reserves can be found much earlier. In fact, one of the earliest known warnings that the United States would run out of oil was released on Jan. 19, 1922, when the U.S. Geological Survey warned the public that only two decades of oil remained in the ground, if present consumption patterns held steady. _<a href="http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/19/a-big-day-for-the-dow-and-a-bigger-peak-oil-myth.aspx">Motley Fool</a></blockquote>
<a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/03/29/the-myth-of-peak-oil/">King Hubbert is the originator of modern peak oil models</a>, but most of Hubbert's real world predictions <a href="http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2012/11/428-even-hubbert-was-wrong.html">are proving wrong.</a><br />
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Most people acknowledge that the Earth's supply of petroleum is finite, and will one day become too expensive to extract. The problem, to many people, seems to be in timing the peak.<br />
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil">Modern history of peak oil predictions (Wikipedia)</a><br />
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But the issue of peak oil is secondary to the issue of peak affordable energy. Modern societies are slowly shifting much of their energy load to electrical power sources, which can be generated by multiple forms of energy besides oil. <br />
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Newer, safer, more scalable, reliable, and affordable forms of nuclear power would be the obvious goal of rational societies, in the pursuit of an electrical energy future. But ample supplies of natural gas, coal, gas hydrates, bitumens, kerogens, and eventually advanced biomass, could supply careful societies with power and heat for centuries to come.<br />
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The question seems to revolve around the issue of "liquid fuels," for powering airplanes, ships, trains, and other transportation vehicles. And yet we know that with the assistance of <a href="http://www.ngnpalliance.org/index.php/htgr">high temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors (HTGRs)</a> -- already well along in the design and development stage -- the world's massive supplies of gas, coal, hydrates, bitumens, kerogens, and biomass can be converted affordably into high quality liquid fuels, chemicals, polymers, lubricants, fertilisers, and other useful substances.<br />
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The problem, though, is neither "peak oil," nore "peak energy." The problem is "peak ingenuity," or the shortage of good ideas and the will the implement them.<br />
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For readers who have freed themselves from "the apocalyptic compulsion," and who are honestly looking for a path out of the apparent abyss, take a careful and open look at <a href="http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/">The Ultimate Resource.</a> <br />
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As long as human minds remain free, solutions to problems can be devised. Whether governments and other powerful interests will allow problems to be solved, or not, is another question. Many of those governments and powerful institutions are led by people who are in thrall to the apocalyptic instinct.<br />
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But we will do what we can to find pathways to a more abundant future. Nobody said it would be easy.
</div>al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-73469116924155195952013-01-19T08:54:00.001-08:002013-01-19T09:33:17.876-08:00Dooms that Failed: Resource Scarcity; Overpopulation; Climate Catastrophe<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Doom and utter devastation tend to get one's attention. The human mind is programmed to home in on signs and portents of doom or catastrophe. Clever con men have taken advantage of this tendency for millenia, for purposes of profit and power. Modern times are no exception.<br />
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Here is a short list of failed predictions of doom -- many of them coming from people who might otherwise be considered respectable and reliable (h/t <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/19/great-moments-in-failed-predictions/#more-77832">WUWT</a>):<br />
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In 1865, Stanley Jevons (one of the most recognized 19th century economists) predicted that England would run out of coal by 1900, and that England’s factories would grind to a standstill.<br />
In 1885, the US Geological Survey announced that there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California.<br />
In 1891, it said the same thing about Kansas and Texas. (See Osterfeld, David. <i>Prosperity Versus Planning : How Government Stifles Economic Growth</i>. New York : Oxford University Press, 1992.)<br />
In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said that American oil supplies would last only another 13 years.<br />
1944 federal government review predicted that by now the US would have exhausted its reserves of 21 of 41 commodities it examined. Among them were tin, nickel, zinc, lead and manganese.<br />
In 1949 the Secretary of the Interior announced that the end of US oil was in sight.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim</span>: In 1952 the US President’s Materials Policy Commission concluded that by the mid-1970s copper production in the US could not exceed 800,000 tons and that lead production would be at most 300,000 tons per year.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Data</span>: But copper production in 1973 was 1.6 million tons, and by 1974 lead production had reached 614,000 tons – 100% higher than predicted.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claims</span>: In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote <i>The Population Bomb</i> and declared that the battle to feed humanity had been lost and that there would be a major food shortage in the US. "In the 1970s ... hundreds of millions are going to starve to death," and by the 1980s most of the world's important resources would be depleted. He forecast that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980-1989 and that by 1999, the US population would decline to 22.6 million. The problems in the US would be relatively minor compared to those in the rest of the world. (Ehrlich, Paul R. <i>The Population Bomb</i>. New York, Ballantine Books, 1968.) <span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">New Scientist magazine underscored his speech in an editorial titled "In Praise of Prophets."</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim</span>: "By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people ... If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."</span><b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Paul Ehrlich, </span><i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=azwQStEZq-8C&pg=PA606&dq=%22even+money+that+England+will+not+exist+in+the+year+2000%22&hl=en&ei=DCQYTa_XBI-q8AaF1ZWLDg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAQ" target="_blank">Speech at British Institute For Biology</a>, </span></i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">September 1971.</span><br />
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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim</span>: Ehrlich wrote in 1968, "I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks India will be self-sufficient in food by 1971, if ever."<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Data</span>: Yet in a only few years India was exporting food and significantly changed its food production capacity. Ehrlich must have noted this because in the 1971 version of his book this commented is delted (Julian Simon, <i>The Ultimate Resource</i>, Princeton: Princeton Univesity Press, 1981, p. 64).<br />
<i>The Limits to Growth </i>(1972) – projected the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and natural gas by 1993. It also stated that the world had only 33-49 years of aluminum resources left, which means we should run out sometime between 2005-2021. (See Donella Meadows et al., <i>The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. </i>New York: New American Library, 1972.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim</span>: In 1974, the US Geological Survey announced “at 1974 technology and 1974 price” the US had only a 10-year supply of natural gas.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Data</span>: The American Gas Association said that gas supplies were sufficient for the next 1,000-2,500 years. (Julian Simon, <i>Population Matters</i>. New Jersey: Transaction Publications, 1990): p. 90.<br />
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<span style="color: firebrick;">Population and Poverty</span></div>
In the mid 1970s the US government sponsored a travelling exhibit for schoolchildren titled, "Population: The Problem is Us." (Jacqueline Kasun, <i>The War Against Population</i>, San Francisco: CA, Ignatius, 1988, p. 21.)<br />
In 1973, Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart's vote in Roe v. Wade was influenced by this idea, according to Bob Woodward and Scott Armstrong: "As Stewart saw it, abortion was becoming one reasonable solution to population control" (quoted in <i>Newsweek</i> of September 14, 1987, p. 33.).<br />
In 1989, when the US Supreme Court was hearing the <i>Webster</i> case, Justice Sandra Day O'Connor brought the idea of overpopulation into a hypothetical question she asked of Charles Fried, former solicitor-general, "Do you think that the state has the right to, if in a future century we had a serious overpopulation problem, has a right to require women to have abortions after so many children?"<br />
World Bank president Barber Conable calls for population control because "poverty and rapid population growth reinforce each other" (<i>Washington Post</i>, July 16, 1990, p. A13)<br />
Prince Philip advises us that "It must be obvious by now that further population growth in any country is undesirable" (<i>Washington Post</i>, May 8, 1990, p. A26)<br />
37 Senators wrote President Bush in support of funding for population control (<i>Washington Post</i>, April 1, 1990, p. H1)<br />
The Trilateral Commission and the American Assembly call for reduction in population growth (<i>U. S. News and World Report</i>, May 7, 1990)<br />
<i>Newsweek</i>'s year-ending cover story concluded that "Foremost of the new realities is the world's population problem" (December 25, 1990, p.44)<br />
The president of NOW warns that continued population growth would be a "catastrophe" (Nat Hentoff in the <i>Washington Post</i>, July 29, 1989, p. A17)<br />
Ted Turner (<i>Atlanta Journal Constitution</i>, Wed. Dec. 2, 1998) in an address to the Society of Environmental Journalists in Chattanooga - blamed Christianity for overpopulation and environmental degradation, and argued that the people who disagree with him are "dummies." He stated in part, "The Judeo-Christian religion says man was given dominion over everything, and his salvation was that he was to go out and increase and multiply. Well, we have done that ... to the point where in Calcutta, it’s a hellhole. So it's not an environmentally friendly religion."<br />
Ellen Goodman laments "People Pollution" (<i>Washington Post</i>, March 3, 1990, p. A25)<br />
Herblock cartoon shows that the U. S. neglecting the "world population explosion" (<i>Washington Post</i>, July 19, 1990, p. A22)<br />
Hobart Rowen likens population growth to "the pond weed [which] grows in huge leaps" (<i>Washington Post</i>, April 1, 1990, p. H8).<br />
A <i>Newsweek</i> "My Turn" suggests giving every teen-age girl a check for up to $1200 each year that she does not have a baby "in order to stop the relentless increase of humanity" (Noel Perrin. "A Nonbearing Account", April 2, 1990, p. 9).<br />
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<span style="color: firebrick;">Climate Change</span></center>
<span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim Jan. 1970</span>: "</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">." </span><b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span><b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=bFAEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA3&dq=%22By+1985,+air+pollution+will+have+reduced+the+amount+of+sunlight+reaching+earth+by+one+half%22&hl=en&ei=AyUYTZGzBcH88AbR74jZDQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCMQ6AEwAA" target="_blank"><i>Life Magazine</i></a><i>, </i>January 1970.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> <span style="font-style: italic;">Life Magazine</span> also noted that some people disagree, "but scientists have solid experimental and historical evidence to support each of the predictions."<br /> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Data</span>: <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Air quality has actually improved since 1970. Studies find that <a href="http://www.manhattan-institute.org/energymyths/myth6.htm" target="_blank">sunlight reaching the Earth fell</a> by somewhere between 3 and 5 percent over the period in question.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim April 1970</span>: "</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">If present trends continue, the world will be ... eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age."</span><b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Kenneth E.F. Watt, </span><i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">in Earth Day,</span></i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> 1970.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Data</span>: <a href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/418335main_land-ocean-full.jpg">According to NASA</a>, global temperature has increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1970.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim 1970</span>: </span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">"In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish."</span><b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Paul Ehrlich, speech during <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/topics/earth-day.htm#r_src=ramp">Earth Day</a>, 1970.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim 1972</span>: "Artic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000." </span><b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/csmonitor_historic/access/264242772.html?dids=264242772:264242772&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:AI&date=Jun+08,+1972&author=&pub=Christian+Science+Monitor&desc=Ice-free+Arctic+Ocean+near?&pqatl=google" target="_blank"><i>Christian Science Monitor</i></a><i>, </i>June 8, 1972<i>.</i><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Data</span>: Ice coverage has <a href="http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png">fallen</a>, though as of last month, the Arctic Ocean had 3.82 million square miles of ice cover -- an area larger than the continental United States -- according to <a href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/" target="_blank">The National Snow and Ice Data Center</a><span style="color: blue;">.</span></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /><br /> Claims 1974: "... when metereologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age. Telltale signs are everywhere--from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice int eh waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data fro the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadia Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round."<br /> Later in the article, "Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic. Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth's surface could tip teh climatic balance, and cool the planet enough to send it sliding down the road to another ice age within only a few hundred years." </span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> Source: "<a href="http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html">Another Ice Age</a>," Time Magazine, June 24, 1974. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim 1989</span>: "</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010." </span><i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Associated Press, </span></i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">May 15, 1989.<br /> Data: </span><i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span></i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="color: blue;"></span></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><a href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/418335main_land-ocean-full.jpg">According to NASA</a>, global temperature has increased by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit since 1989. And U.S. temperature has <a href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.lrg.gif">increased even less</a> over the same period.</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claims</span>: "Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives."<br />
"Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and ... are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters--which scientists are attributing to global climate change--produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries."<br />
"London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991." "Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community."<br />
According to Dr. David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years "children just aren't going to know what snow is" and winter snowfall will be "a very rare and exciting event." Interviewed by the UK Independent, March 20, 2000. "David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow."<br />
See "<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html">Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past</a>." The Independent. March 20, 2000.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Data</span>: "<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339149/Big-freeze-Temperatures-plummet-10C-bringing-travel-chaos-Britain.html">Coldest December Since records began as temperatures plummet to minus 10 C bringing travel chaos across Britain</a>." Mailonline. Dec. 18, 2010.<br />
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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Claim</span>: "[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots ... [By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers." Michel Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1850432414/ref=sib_dp_srch_pop?v=search-inside&keywords=heartlands&go.x=0&go.y=0"><span style="font-style: italic;">Dead Heat</span></a>, St. Martin's Press, 1990. <a href="http://www.princeton.edu/step/people/faculty/michael-oppenheimer/">Oppenheimer</a> is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Geosciences at Princeton University. He is the Director of the Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy at the Wilson School. He was formerly a senior scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund, the largest non-governmental organization in the U.S. that examines problems and solutions to greenhouse gases.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Data</span>: When asked about these old predictions Oppenheimer stated, <span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">"On the whole I would stand by these predictions -- not predictions, sorry, scenarios -- as having at least in a general way actually come true," he said. "There's been extensive drought, devastating drought, in significant parts of the world. The fraction of the world that's in drought has increased over that period."<o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /> However, that claim is not obviously true. Data from <a href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/precip_cru/graphs/Fig_A.txt">NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center</a> show that precipitation -- rain and snow -- has increased slightly over the century.</span>_<a href="http://www.terry.uga.edu/~mustard/courses/e2200/pop.htm">Dooms that Failed</a></blockquote>
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This is just a hint of all the failed predictions of doom over the past few decades. Remember: While there is certainly a sucker born every minute, there is also a grifter born at least every few minutes. The cleverest grifters take advantage of a sucker's gullibility in order to become rich and powerful -- and sometimes popes and presidents.<br />
<br /></div>
<a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/08/ff_apocalypsenot/all/">Matt Ridley: Apocalypse Not</a><br><br><a href="http://reason.com/blog/2012/12/04/remembering-peak-oil-madness">Ronald Bailey: Remembering Peak Oil Madness</a><br><br>
<a href="http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/williams050708.php3">Environmentalists' Wild Predictions</a>
<br><br>
<a href="http://www.sullivan-county.com/nf0/y2k/jungle_christ.htm">Doomsday Prophecy for Environmentalists</a>
<br><br>
<a href="http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/articles/40995/how-do-doomsayers-cope-when-the-world-doesnt-end/">Coping When the World Doesn't End</a>
<br><br><a href="http://www.energytribune.com/10830/ehrlich-false-prophets-and-the-futures-market">Peter Glover: Ehrlich, False Prophets, . . .</a><br><br>
<a href="http://asiancorrespondent.com/71700/an-updated-history-of-last-chances-to-save-the-world/">A Few of the Last Chances to Save the World</a>al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-14002866302325904752013-01-17T07:42:00.000-08:002013-01-18T11:34:09.027-08:00The Life Span of Empires: 250 Years?<b><i>Previously published on <a href="http://alfin2200.blogspot.com">abu al-fin</a></i></b>
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Sir John Glubb was a British author and lecturer, who was decorated for his service in the Royal Engineers in WWI, and was commander of the Jordan Arab Legion from 1939 to 1956. His famous and succinct essay, <i><a href="http://www.reactionaryjudaism.org/file/n15/fate.pdf">The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival (PDF)</a>,</i> looks at the lifespan of empires from their origins to their eventual decline.<br />
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Glubb estimates that most empires do not last longer than roughly 250 years, with many of them lasting much shorter periods of time. He describes many of the stages of empire, and many of the reasons why they break down and eventually disappear.
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-juEXqBfswRA/UOnraQts02I/AAAAAAAANq0/X3YZHyImt6Q/s1600/SJ%2BGlubb_Fate%2Bof%2BEmpires.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="460" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-juEXqBfswRA/UOnraQts02I/AAAAAAAANq0/X3YZHyImt6Q/s640/SJ%2BGlubb_Fate%2Bof%2BEmpires.png" width="600" /></a><center><a href="http://www.reactionaryjudaism.org/file/n15/fate.pdf">Sir John Glubb "Fate of Empires" (PDF)</a></center></div><br>
As seen in Glubb's image above, most of the world's great empires lasted no longer than 250 years. Glubb looks at the Roman Republic and the Roman Empire as two different empires, based upon their distinct forms of government. <br><br>
One of the reasons for decline of empire described by Glubb is the influx of masses of people from outside cultures, religions, and ethnic groups, who are different from the core populations making up the founders and conquering peoples who brought about the original empire.
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vDLhQsjbNgQ/UOnrbAuN0iI/AAAAAAAANrA/_k3nbFWLCl4/s1600/SJ%2BGlubb_Empires_ethnic_evolution_.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vDLhQsjbNgQ/UOnrbAuN0iI/AAAAAAAANrA/_k3nbFWLCl4/s640/SJ%2BGlubb_Empires_ethnic_evolution_.png" width="236" /></a></div><br>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JjXWlQqBPB4/UOnrco2AAJI/AAAAAAAANrM/IYgRYlBzeB0/s1600/SJ%2BGlubb_Fate_ethnic_evolution_empires_2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="260" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JjXWlQqBPB4/UOnrco2AAJI/AAAAAAAANrM/IYgRYlBzeB0/s400/SJ%2BGlubb_Fate_ethnic_evolution_empires_2.png" width="236" /></a></div><br>
Glubb's summary at the end of the essay:
<blockquote>(a) We do not learn from history because
our studies are brief and prejudiced. <br><br>
(b) In a surprising manner, 250 years
emerges as the average length of national
greatness. <br><br>
(c) This average has not varied for 3,000
years. Does it represent ten generations? <br><br>
(d) The stages of the rise and fall of great
nations seem to be: <br><br>
The Age of Pioneers (outburst) <br>
The Age of Conquests <br>
The Age of Commerce <br>
The Age of Affluence <br>
The Age of Intellect <br>
The Age of Decadence. <br><br>
(e) Decadence is marked by: <br><br>
Defensiveness <br>
Pessimism <br>
Materialism <br>
Frivolity <br>
An influx of foreigners <br>
The Welfare State <br>
A weakening of religion. <br><br>
(f) Decadence is due to: <br>
Too long a period of wealth and power <br>
Selfishness <br>
Love of money <br>
The loss of a sense of duty. <br><br>
(g) The life histories of great states are
amazingly similar, and are due to internal
factors. <br><br>
(h) Their falls are diverse, because they are
largely the result of external causes. <br><br>
(i) History should be taught as the history
of the human race, though of course with
emphasis on the history of the student’s own
country. _<a href="http://www.reactionaryjudaism.org/file/n15/fate.pdf">PDF Download of Sir John Glubb's Essay on Fate of Empires</a></blockquote><br>
Useful background reading:<br><br>
<a href="http://archive.org/details/Decline-Of-The-West-Oswald-Spengler">Decline of the West by Oswald Spengler</a><br><br>
<a href="http://archive.org/details/TheEvolutionOfCivilizations">The Evolution of Civilisations by Carroll Quigley</a><br><br>
<a href="http://archive.org/details/historyofthedecl00890gut">History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire Vol. 1 by Edward Gibbon</a><br><br>
Historians often disagree over details -- both large and small. That leaves it up to each of us to learn what we can, and to make up our own minds as to the lessons that we can apply from history to more modern times.<br><br><br>
<b><i>Note regarding comments:</i></b> Glubb considered the "250 year" observation to be interesting, but not something to be made into a dogma. His main point was that empires evolve over time -- and generations of people -- so that the spirit and cohesiveness which brought about their creation tends to dissipate. The decay was observed to take place over roughly 10 generations, but could require much less time if a rival empire was ready to take over at an earlier time.<br><br>
The study of civilisations is much more interesting than the study of empires, since a civilisation can jump from empire to empire, and evolve in many different population groups -- assuming their cognitive abilities are sufficient to support it, and their genetic / behavioural instincts are compatible with the underlying spirit of the civilisation.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-33875377653364497122013-01-16T15:01:00.001-08:002013-01-16T18:49:49.950-08:00A Place Where It Is Better to be Born<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>In a world of steel-eyed death, and men who are fighting to be warm</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>“Come in,” she said, “I’ll give you shelter from the storm”</b></span> __<a href="http://www.bobdylan.com/us/songs/shelter-storm">Bob Dylan, Shelter from the Storm</a>
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<i>If you came into the world today and could pick your nationality, <b>there are at least 15 <u>better choices than to be born American</u>, according to a study by the Economist Intelligence Unit</b></i>. The firm looked at 80 countries, scoring them across 11 variables to determine “which country will provide the best opportunities for a healthy, safe and prosperous life in the years ahead.”<br />
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...the Nordic countries come out on top, alongside Ireland, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The top 15 also include Austria and Switzerland, which seem to meet similar criteria. The three best places to be born are, in order: Switzerland, Australia and Norway.<br />
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Here’s a surprise: the top-ranked countries also include Asia’s two super-rich city-states, Hong Kong and Singapore... _<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/01/07/a-surprising-map-of-the-best-and-worst-countries-to-be-born-into-today/">WaPo</a></blockquote>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TSTOXYOHMyg/UPcll86tibI/AAAAAAAAN1I/Z-U406Ed0kg/s1600/where-to-be-born-.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="314" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TSTOXYOHMyg/UPcll86tibI/AAAAAAAAN1I/Z-U406Ed0kg/s640/where-to-be-born-.jpg" width="600" /></a><center>
<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/01/07/a-surprising-map-of-the-best-and-worst-countries-to-be-born-into-today/">Better Places to be Born</a></center></div>
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Yes indeed. But almost all of these highest ranked countries have relatively small and homogeneous populations, compared to the US. Statistically, where is a person more likely to be born? In a tiny rich country with a low fertility rate, or in a highly populated African or Asian cesspool with a sky-high fertility rate?<br />
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<blockquote>
In spite of Asia’s miraculous growth and of Europe’s economic decline, factors such as political rights and health standards keep the Western world overwhelmingly desirable. Other than a small number of exceptions, most of which are mentioned above, the top third of the rankings is dominated by Europe and other Western states. _<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/01/07/a-surprising-map-of-the-best-and-worst-countries-to-be-born-into-today/">WaPo</a></blockquote>
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Nations of Europe and the Anglosphere score well in the rankings -- for now. But with dysfunctional immigration policies that welcome the unassimilable, untrainable, fertile, and impoverished third world peoples -- and with economic policies that punish the native born who are productive and ambitious -- these "fortunate countries" are setting the stage for a less fortunate future.<br><br>
There are some demographic factors which the Economist Intelligence Unit was not brave enough to face. For example, can you imagine the quality of life in a Switzerland, Singapore, or Hong Kong, which was populated mostly by black Kenyans or South Africans? <br><br>
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The average population IQ correlates very well with a nation's GDP. I wonder why the Economist Intelligence Unit neglected that crucial demographic factor?<br><br>
The next time you are born, consider New Zealand, if only on the basis of natural beauty. <a href="http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/the-hobbit-holes-that-saved-new-zealand/539/">The hobbits certainly like it there</a>.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-25373724235326648442013-01-15T08:28:00.001-08:002013-01-15T14:03:43.596-08:00Everything You Think You Know, Just Ain't So<b><i>Humans cannot perceive reality directly.</i></b> Instead, the outside world is filtered through our various senses. Significant filtering and pre-processing occur in the sensory organs themselves. Inside the brain, "primary" areas are devoted to each of the senses, where further filtering and pre-processing of information take place -- under the influence of feedback from "higher" brain areas. From the primary sensory cortex, the information proceeds to "associative" sensory areas and other cortical and sub-cortical parts of the brain, where an incredible free-for-all of clashing and matching information occurs deep below the level of consciousness.
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<br />All of these sensory and mental processes find themselves immersed within a sea of emotions, influenced by the hormonal, biochemical, physiological, and genetic state of the individual. Every moment of time contains its own mix of emotions, frequently linked and tagged subconsciously to subtle sensory cues, such as fragrances, colours, or musical phrases.<br><br>This insistent background will shade our "knowing" in different ways, at different times.<br>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mc7SAQ60ax8/UPV42X_nIlI/AAAAAAAANzY/xgwXP7vltYY/s1600/Kahneman+p33_optical_illusion.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="562" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mc7SAQ60ax8/UPV42X_nIlI/AAAAAAAANzY/xgwXP7vltYY/s640/Kahneman+p33_optical_illusion.jpg" width="600" /></a><center><a href="http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/kahneman07/kahneman07_index.html">Edge.org: Daniel Kahneman</a></center></div>
<br />Within the great tumbling scrum of the subconscious, a number of the brain's default mechanisms operate below the level of awareness, detected only by careful testing. But when put under the magnifying glass, the mind betrays its inner workings in the form of a number of sensory illusions and cognitive biases.
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H9fQ5uHvr2g/UPDMUGNsC4I/AAAAAAAANwA/uLStGGy13IU/s1600/perceptual_cognitive_biases.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="608" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H9fQ5uHvr2g/UPDMUGNsC4I/AAAAAAAANwA/uLStGGy13IU/s640/perceptual_cognitive_biases.png" width="600" /></a>
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<a href="http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cia/tradecraft_primer_2009.pdf">Image Source PDF</a></center></div><br>Many of the cognitive biases come about due to subconscious laziness, or a type of ongoing conservation of energy by the brain. Others are simply quirks resulting from the basic design of brain circuits and function.<br><br>
But even after information has survived these minefields -- of sensory filters, perceptional illusions, emotional biasing, and cognitive biasing -- there are other types of information distortion which must be traversed. More on the conscious level, humans must face a large number of "logical fallacies" that are incorporated into verbal communication for many reasons -- some of the honest, and some of them quite devious.<br><br>Always remember that descriptions and explanations of logical fallacies may in themselves be fallacious and misleading. <br><br>
<br /><a href="http://www.theskepticsguide.org/resources/logicalfallacies.aspx">Top 20 Logical Fallacies</a><br><br>
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<tr><td><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl03_lblName">Ad hominem</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl03_lblText" style="color: #333333;">An ad hominem argument is any that attempts to counter another’s claims or conclusions by attacking the person, rather than addressing the argument itself. True believers will often commit this fallacy by countering the arguments of skeptics by stating that skeptics are closed minded. Skeptics, on the other hand, may fall into the trap of dismissing the claims of UFO believers, for example, by stating that people who believe in UFO’s are crazy or stupid.<br /><br />A common form of this fallacy is also frequently present in the arguments of conspiracy theorists (who also rely heavily on ad-hoc reasoning). For example, they may argue that the government must be lying because they are corrupt.<br /><br />It should be noted that simply calling someone a name or otherwise making an ad hominem attack is not in itself a logical fallacy. It is only a fallacy to claim that an argument is wrong because of a negative attribute of someone making the argument. (i.e. “John is a jerk.” is not a fallacy. “John is wrong because he is a jerk.” is a logical fallacy.)<br /><br />The term “poisoning the well” also refers to a form of ad hominem fallacy. This is an attempt to discredit the argument of another by implying that they possess an unsavory trait, or that they are affiliated with other beliefs or people that are wrong or unpopular. A common form of this also has its own name – Godwin’s Law or the reductio ad Hitlerum. This refers to an attempt at poisoning the well by drawing an analogy between another’s position and Hitler or the Nazis.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl04_hlinkAnchor" name="2" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl04_lblName">Ad ignorantiam</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl04_lblText" style="color: #333333;">The argument from ignorance basically states that a specific belief is true because we don’t know that it isn’t true. Defenders of extrasensory perception, for example, will often overemphasize how much we do not know about the human brain. It is therefore possible, they argue, that the brain may be capable of transmitting signals at a distance.<br /><br />UFO proponents are probably the most frequent violators of this fallacy. Almost all UFO eyewitness evidence is ultimately an argument from ignorance – lights or objects sighted in the sky are unknown, and therefore they are alien spacecraft.<br /><br />Intelligent design is almost entirely based upon this fallacy. The core argument for intelligent design is that there are biological structures that have not been fully explained by evolution, therefore a powerful intelligent designer must have created them.<br /><br />In order to make a positive claim, however, positive evidence for the specific claim must be presented. The absence of another explanation only means that we do not know – it doesn’t mean we get to make up a specific explanation.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl05_hlinkAnchor" name="3" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl05_lblName">Argument from authority</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl05_lblText" style="color: #333333;">The basic structure of such arguments is as follows: Professor X believes A, Professor X speaks from authority, therefore A is true. Often this argument is implied by emphasizing the many years of experience, or the formal degrees held by the individual making a specific claim. The converse of this argument is sometimes used, that someone does not possess authority, and therefore their claims must be false. (This may also be considered an ad-hominen logical fallacy – see below.)<br /><br />In practice this can be a complex logical fallacy to deal with. It is legitimate to consider the training and experience of an individual when examining their assessment of a particular claim. Also, a consensus of scientific opinion does carry some legitimate authority. But it is still possible for highly educated individuals, and a broad consensus to be wrong – speaking from authority does not make a claim true.<br /><br />This logical fallacy crops up in more subtle ways also. For example, UFO proponents have argued that UFO sightings by airline pilots should be given special weight because pilots are trained observers, are reliable characters, and are trained not to panic in emergencies. In essence, they are arguing that we should trust the pilot’s authority as an eye witness.<br /><br />There are many subtypes of the argument from authority, essentially referring to the implied source of authority. A common example is the argument ad populum – a belief must be true because it is popular, essentially assuming the authority of the masses. Another example is the argument from antiquity – a belief has been around for a long time and therefore must be true.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl06_hlinkAnchor" name="4" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl06_lblName">Argument from final Consequences</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl06_lblText" style="color: #333333;">Such arguments (also called teleological) are based on a reversal of cause and effect, because they argue that something is caused by the ultimate effect that it has, or purpose that is serves. Christian creationists have argued, for example, that evolution must be wrong because if it were true it would lead to immorality.<br /><br />One type of teleological argument is the argument from design. For example, the universe has all the properties necessary to support live, therefore it was designed specifically to support life (and therefore had a designer.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl07_hlinkAnchor" name="5" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl07_lblName">Argument from Personal Incredulity</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl07_lblText" style="color: #333333;">I cannot explain or understand this, therefore it cannot be true. Creationists are fond of arguing that they cannot imagine the complexity of life resulting from blind evolution, but that does not mean life did not evolve.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl08_hlinkAnchor" name="25" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl08_lblName">Begging the Question</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl08_lblText" style="color: #333333;">The term “begging the question” is often misused to mean “raises the question,” (and common use will likely change, or at least add this new, definition). However, the intended meaning is to assume a conclusion in one’s question. This is similar to circular reasoning, and an argument is trying to slip in a conclusion in a premise or question – but it is not the same as circular reasoning because the question being begged can be a separate point. Whereas with circular reasoning the premise and conclusion are the same.<br /><br />The classic example of begging the question is to ask someone if they have stopped beating their wife yet. Of course, the question assumes that they every beat their wife.<br /><br />In my appearance on the Dr. Oz show I was asked – what are alternative medicine skeptics (termed “holdouts”) afraid of? This is a double feature of begging the question. By using the term “holdout” the question assumes that acceptance is already become the majority position and is inevitable. But also, Oz begged the question that skeptics are “afraid.” This also created a straw man (see below) of our position, which is rather based on a dedication to reasonable standards of science and evidence.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl09_hlinkAnchor" name="6" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl09_lblName">Confusing association with causation</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl09_lblText" style="color: #333333;">This is similar to the post-hoc fallacy in that it assumes cause and effect for two variables simply because they occur together. This fallacy is often used to give a statistical correlation a causal interpretation. For example, during the 1990’s both religious attendance and illegal drug use have been on the rise. It would be a fallacy to conclude that therefore, religious attendance causes illegal drug use. It is also possible that drug use leads to an increase in religious attendance, or that both drug use and religious attendance are increased by a third variable, such as an increase in societal unrest. It is also possible that both variables are independent of one another, and it is mere coincidence that they are both increasing at the same time.<br /><br />This fallacy, however, has a tendency to be abused, or applied inappropriately, to deny all statistical evidence. In fact this constitutes a logical fallacy in itself, the denial of causation. This abuse takes two basic forms. The first is to deny the significance of correlations that are demonstrated with prospective controlled data, such as would be acquired during a clinical experiment. The problem with assuming cause and effect from mere correlation is not that a causal relationship is impossible, it’s just that there are other variables that must be considered and not ruled out a-priori. A controlled trial, however, by its design attempts to control for as many variables as possible in order to maximize the probability that a positive correlation is in fact due to a causation.<br /><br />Further, even with purely epidemiological, or statistical, evidence it is still possible to build a strong scientific case for a specific cause. The way to do this is to look at multiple independent correlations to see if they all point to the same causal relationship. For example, it was observed that cigarette smoking correlates with getting lung cancer. The tobacco industry, invoking the “correlation is not causation” logical fallacy, argued that this did not prove causation. They offered as an alternate explanation “factor x”, a third variable that causes both smoking and lung cancer. But we can make predictions based upon the smoking causes cancer hypothesis. If this is the correct causal relationship, then duration of smoking should correlate with cancer risk, quitting smoking should decrease cancer risk, smoking unfiltered cigarettes should have a higher cancer risk than filtered cigarettes, etc. If all of these correlations turn out to be true, which they are, then we can triangulate to the smoking causes cancer hypothesis as the most likely possible causal relationship and it is not a logical fallacy to conclude from this evidence that smoking probably causes lung cancer.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl10_hlinkAnchor" name="7" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl10_lblName">Confusing currently unexplained with unexplainable</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl10_lblText" style="color: #333333;">Because we do not currently have an adequate explanation for a phenomenon does not mean that it is forever unexplainable, or that it therefore defies the laws of nature or requires a paranormal explanation. An example of this is the "God of the Gapsa" strategy of creationists that whatever we cannot currently explain is unexplainable and was therefore an act of god.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl11_hlinkAnchor" name="20" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl11_lblName">False Analogy</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl11_lblText" style="color: #333333;">Analogies are very useful as they allow us to draw lessons from the familiar and apply them to the unfamiliar. Life is like a box of chocolate – you never know what you’re going to get.<br /><br />A false analogy is an argument based upon an assumed similarity between two things, people, or situations when in fact the two things being compared are not similar in the manner invoked. Saying that the probability of a complex organism evolving by chance is the same as a tornado ripping through a junkyard and created a 747 by chance is a false analogy. Evolution, in fact, does not work by chance but is the non-random accumulation of favorable changes.<br /><br />Creationists also make the analogy between life and your home, invoking the notion of thermodynamics or entropy. Over time your home will become messy, and things will start to break down. The house does not spontaneously become more clean or in better repair.<br /><br />The false analogy here is that a home is an inanimate collection of objects. Whereas life uses energy to grow and reproduce – the addition of energy to the system of life allows for the local reduction in entropy – for evolution to happen.<br /><br />Another way in which false analogies are invoked is to make an analogy between two things that are in fact analogous in many ways – just not the specific way being invoked in the argument. Just because two things are analogous in some ways does not mean they are analogous in every way.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl12_hlinkAnchor" name="8" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl12_lblName">False Continuum</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl12_lblText" style="color: #333333;">The idea that because there is no definitive demarcation line between two extremes, that the distinction between the extremes is not real or meaningful: There is a fuzzy line between cults and religion, therefore they are really the same thing.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl13_hlinkAnchor" name="9" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl13_lblName">False Dichotomy</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl13_lblText" style="color: #333333;">Arbitrarily reducing a set of many possibilities to only two. For example, evolution is not possible, therefore we must have been created (assumes these are the only two possibilities). This fallacy can also be used to oversimplify a continuum of variation to two black and white choices. For example, science and pseudoscience are not two discrete entities, but rather the methods and claims of all those who attempt to explain reality fall along a continuum from one extreme to the other.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl14_hlinkAnchor" name="24" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl14_lblName">Genetic Fallacy</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl14_lblText" style="color: #333333;">The term “genetic” here does not refer to DNA and genes, but to history (and therefore a connection through the concept of inheritance). This fallacy assumes that something’s current utility is dictated by and constrained by its historical utility. This is easiest to demonstrate with words – a words current use may be entirely unrelated to its etymological origins. For example, if I use the term “sunset” or “sunrise” I am not implying belief in a geocentric cosmology in which the sun revolves about the Earth and literally “rises” and “sets.”<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl15_hlinkAnchor" name="10" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl15_lblName">Inconsistency</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl15_lblText" style="color: #333333;">Applying criteria or rules to one belief, claim, argument, or position but not to others. For example, some consumer advocates argue that we need stronger regulation of prescription drugs to ensure their safety and effectiveness, but at the same time argue that medicinal herbs should be sold with no regulation for either safety or effectiveness.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl16_hlinkAnchor" name="26" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl16_lblName">No True Scotsman</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl16_lblText" style="color: #333333;">This fallacy is a form of circular reasoning, in that it attempts to include a conclusion about something in the very definition of the word itself. It is therefore also a semantic argument.<br /><br />The term comes from the example: If Ian claims that all Scotsman are brave, and you provide a counter example of a Scotsman who is clearly a coward, Ian might respond, "Well, then, he's no true Scotsman." In essence Ian claims that all Scotsman are brave by including bravery in the definition of what it is to be a Scotsman. This argument does not establish and facts or new information, and is limited to Ian's definition of the word, "Scotsman."<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl17_hlinkAnchor" name="11" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl17_lblName">Non-Sequitur</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl17_lblText" style="color: #333333;">In Latin this term translates to "doesn't follow". This refers to an argument in which the conclusion does not necessarily follow from the premises. In other words, a logical connection is implied where none exists.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl18_hlinkAnchor" name="12" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl18_lblName">Post-hoc ergo propter hoc</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl18_lblText" style="color: #333333;">This fallacy follows the basic format of: A preceded B, therefore A caused B, and therefore assumes cause and effect for two events just because they are temporally related (the latin translates to "after this, therefore because of this").<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl19_hlinkAnchor" name="13" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl19_lblName">Reductio ad absurdum</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl19_lblText" style="color: #333333;">In formal logic, the reductio ad absurdum is a legitimate argument. It follows the form that if the premises are assumed to be true it necessarily leads to an absurd (false) conclusion and therefore one or more premises must be false. The term is now often used to refer to the abuse of this style of argument, by stretching the logic in order to force an absurd conclusion. For example a UFO enthusiast once argued that if I am skeptical about the existence of alien visitors, I must also be skeptical of the existence of the Great Wall of China, since I have not personally seen either. This is a false reductio ad absurdum because he is ignoring evidence other than personal eyewitness evidence, and also logical inference. In short, being skeptical of UFO’s does not require rejecting the existence of the Great Wall.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl20_hlinkAnchor" name="14" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl20_lblName">Slippery Slope</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl20_lblText" style="color: #333333;">This logical fallacy is the argument that a position is not consistent or tenable because accepting the position means that the extreme of the position must also be accepted. But moderate positions do not necessarily lead down the slippery slope to the extreme.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl21_hlinkAnchor" name="15" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl21_lblName">Special pleading, or ad-hoc reasoning</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl21_lblText" style="color: #333333;">This is a subtle fallacy which is often difficult to recognize. In essence, it is the arbitrary introduction of new elements into an argument in order to fix them so that they appear valid. A good example of this is the ad-hoc dismissal of negative test results. For example, one might point out that ESP has never been demonstrated under adequate test conditions, therefore ESP is not a genuine phenomenon. Defenders of ESP have attempted to counter this argument by introducing the arbitrary premise that ESP does not work in the presence of skeptics. This fallacy is often taken to ridiculous extremes, and more and more bizarre ad hoc elements are added to explain experimental failures or logical inconsistencies.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl22_hlinkAnchor" name="16" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl22_lblName">Straw Man</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl22_lblText" style="color: #333333;">A straw man argument attempts to counter a position by attacking a different position – usually one that is easier to counter. The arguer invents a caricature of his opponent’s position – a “straw man” – that is easily refuted, but not the position that his opponent actually holds.<br /><br />For example, defenders of alternative medicine often argue that skeptics refuse to accept their claims because they conflict with their world-view. If “Western” science cannot explain how a treatment works, then it is dismissed out-of-hand. If you read skeptical treatment of so-called “alternative” modalities, however, you will find the skeptical position much more nuanced than that.<br /><br />Claims are not a-prior dismissed because they are not currently explained by science. Rather, in some cases (like homeopathy) there is a vast body of scientific knowledge that says that homeopathy is not possible. Having an unknown mechanism is not the same thing as demonstrably impossible (at least as best as modern science can tell). Further, skeptical treatments of homeopathy often thoroughly review the clinical evidence. Even when the question of mechanism is put aside, the evidence shows that homeopathic remedies are indistinguishable from placebo – which means they do not work.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl23_hlinkAnchor" name="17" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl23_lblName">Tautology</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl23_lblText" style="color: #333333;">Tautology in formal logic refers to a statement that must be true in every interpretation by its very construction. In rhetorical logic, it is an argument that utilizes circular reasoning, which means that the conclusion is also its own premise. Typically the premise is simply restated in the conclusion, without adding additional information or clarification. The structure of such arguments is A=B therefore A=B, although the premise and conclusion might be formulated differently so it is not immediately apparent as such. For example, saying that therapeutic touch works because it manipulates the life force is a tautology because the definition of therapeutic touch is the alleged manipulation (without touching) of the life force.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl24_hlinkAnchor" name="23" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl24_lblName">The Fallacy Fallacy</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl24_lblText" style="color: #333333;">As I mentioned near the beginning of this article, just because someone invokes an unsound argument for a conclusion, that does not necessarily mean the conclusion is false. A conclusion may happen to be true even if an argument used to support is is not sound. I may argue, for example, Obama is a Democrat because the sky is blue – an obvious non-sequitur. But the conclusion, Obama is a Democrat, is still true.<br /><br />Related to this, and common in the comments sections of blogs, is the position that because some random person on the internet is unable to defend a position well, that the position is therefore false. All that has really been demonstrated is that the one person in question cannot adequately defend their position.<br /><br />This is especially relevant when the question is highly scientific, technical, or requires specialized knowledge. A non-expert likely does not have the knowledge at their fingertips to counter an elaborate, but unscientific, argument against an accepted science. “If you (a lay person) cannot explain to me,” the argument frequently goes, “exactly how this science works, then it is false.”<br /><br />Rather, such questions are better handled by actual experts. And, in fact, intellectual honesty requires that at least an attempt should be made to find the best evidence and arguments for a position, articulated by those with recognized expertise, and then account for those arguments before a claim is dismissed.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl25_hlinkAnchor" name="18" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl25_lblName">The Moving Goalpost</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl25_lblText" style="color: #333333;">A method of denial arbitrarily moving the criteria for “proof” or acceptance out of range of whatever evidence currently exists. If new evidence comes to light meeting the prior criteria, the goalpost is pushed back further – keeping it out of range of the new evidence. Sometimes impossible criteria are set up at the start – moving the goalpost impossibly out of range -for the purpose of denying an undesirable conclusion.<br /></span></td></tr>
<tr><td><a href="" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl26_hlinkAnchor" name="19" style="font-size: 10pt;"></a><span class="fallacy_name" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl26_lblName">Tu quoque</span><br /><span class="fallacy_text" id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_rptrFallacy_ctl26_lblText" style="color: #333333;">Literally, you too. This is an attempt to justify wrong action because someone else also does it. "My evidence may be invalid, but so is yours." </span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>__<a href="http://www.theskepticsguide.org/resources/logicalfallacies.aspx">Skeptics Guide to Logical Fallacies</a>
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This is just a bare introduction to a few of the ways that human knowledge is filtered, processed, shaded, twisted, obscured, and misled -- just in the everyday course of events. Over at the blog <a href="http://alfin2101.blogspot.com">Al Fin, the Next Level</a>, they will be looking at some of these issues more closely from the standpoint of Dangerous Child training.
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More: <a href="http://alfin2101.blogspot.com/2013/01/essential-thinking-skills-for-dangerous.html">Thinking Skills for the Dangerous Child</a>al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-90353345980828437002013-01-14T10:40:00.002-08:002013-01-14T19:33:17.407-08:00Oil Prices: Is the Fox Guarding the Hen House?
<blockquote>Prices are not determined by the fundamentals in a manipulated market they are determined by oil being an “Asset Class” which is code word or a euphemism for giant Casino in New York instead of Vegas.<br><br>
...The price of oil, and as such gas is determined not by supply and demand factors, but by whether Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) or Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) or J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) puts $400 million on Black or Red, the literal Oil Roulette game of the big banks... If Goldman Sachs puts <b>$400 million on Black prices go up</b>, if they put <b>$400 million on Red prices go down</b>, as simple as that, this is actually how the price of oil is determined, nothing more and nothing less. _<a href="http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Why-are-Banks-Allowed-to-Manipulate-the-Oil-Markets.html">Dian Chu</a></blockquote>
In a simpler world of fewer trades, where commodities futures can be monitored closely by a conscientious overseer, manipulating the market would be more difficult. But in the modern, ultra-high volume speed-of-light trading by the giant banks with minimal oversight, the smart money bets on the smart manipulators.
<blockquote>...lets just abolish the SEC and the CFTC, as they are completely useless. Furthermore, since all markets are ripe with manipulation, essentially the wild-west; why not reduce government costs by cutting funds to these two agencies entirely.
They serve no real purpose when markets are corrupted everyday with Fake Orders, Dark Trading Pools, High Frequency Trading Algos, and the like except to further government costs & bureaucracy while strictly providing the illusion of fair markets. These organizations are a complete joke, and have been for decades!<br><br>
... _<a href="http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Why-are-Banks-Allowed-to-Manipulate-the-Oil-Markets.html">Dian Chu</a></blockquote><br>
If you combine Dian Chu's reasoning above with<a href="http://alfin2300.blogspot.com/2013/01/global-oil-oversupply-vs-global-oil.html"> Andrew McKillop's thinking featured in this Al Fin Energy article, </a> you may begin to see a pattern developing.<br><br>
Even in an era of relative oil oversupply, markets can be tweaked so as to bring oil prices further upward -- until it is time to let them drop again.
<br><br>It is difficult to deny that global oil markets have become the equivalent of casinos, with all the big players standing around the wheel, placing bets and exerting small bits of control over the ball, here and there, now and again, over and over again.<br><br>
As for US government oversight, fuggidduhbowdit! The Chicago outfit only wants to make sure that it gets its piece of the action.<br><br>
<b><i><u>Update:</u></i></b> <a href="http://www.econmatters.com/2013/01/physical-delivery-needed-in-agriculture.html">Dian Chu expands her argument on her own site</a>
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There are many indicators suggesting that big governments and large intergovernmental agencies are very content managing a world where data transparency is limited to those on the top, politically and economically.<br><br>
This has generally been the case in Asia and Europe (and for the UN, World Bank, and IMF), but is becoming increasingly the case in the US under the Obama administration, also known as the Goldman Sachs administration.al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-14403290263740425742013-01-12T11:37:00.002-08:002013-01-12T11:37:31.037-08:00Greenland Is Still Too Cold for the Vikings<blockquote>Around the time the Vikings disappear from the island’s archaeological record, temperature appears to have plunged. _<a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2011/05/31/climate-change-froze-the-vikings-out-of-greenland-say-scientists/#.UPGzTR081c0">Source</a></blockquote>The Vikings had things very nice in Greenland for a few hundred years, during the medieval warm period -- a warm period just as warm or warmer than modern times. <a href="http://sciencenordic.com/vikings-grew-barley-greenland">It was so warm during that time, that the Vikings were able to grow barley, for beer.</a>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7uPOozVHWmU/UPG3iR_fDdI/AAAAAAAANwQ/wok4Z5ck1hM/s1600/North_Atlantic_Viking_Greenland.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="590" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7uPOozVHWmU/UPG3iR_fDdI/AAAAAAAANwQ/wok4Z5ck1hM/s640/North_Atlantic_Viking_Greenland.jpg" width="604" /></a><center><a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/archaeologists-uncover-clues-to-why-vikings-abandoned-greenland-a-876626.html">Spiegel.de</a></center></div>
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We know that <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=climate-change-and-collapse-in-greenland">the little ice age cooled the Greenland climate to a point where the Viking's traditional foods and livestock were more difficult to grow</a>. But were there other reasons why the Vikings packed up and went back to Iceland?
<blockquote>When settlement began in the early 11th century, only between 20 and 30 percent of their diet came from the sea. But seal hunting played a growing role in the ensuing centuries. "They ate more and more seal meat, with the animals constituting up to 80 percent of their diet in the 14th century," explains team member Jan Heinemeier, a dating expert from the University of Aarhus, in Denmark.
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His fellow team member Niels Lynnerup, an anthropologist and forensic scientist at the University of Copenhagen, confirms that the Vikings of Greenland had plenty to eat even as the climate grew colder. "Perhaps they were just sick and tired of living at the ends of the earth and having almost nothing but seals to eat," he says.
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The bone analyses show that they rarely ate meat from their own herds of livestock. The climate had become harsher on the island starting in the mid-13th century. Summer temperatures fell, violent storms raged around the houses and the winters were bone-chillingly cold. For the cattle that had been brought to Greenland, there was less and less to eat in the pastures and meadows along the fjords.
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On the smaller farms, cattle were gradually replaced with sheep and goats, which were easier to rear. The isotope analyses show that pigs, valued for their meat, were fed fish and seal remains for a while longer but had disappeared from the island by around 1300...
<br><br>...if it wasn't starvation or disease, <u>what triggered the abandonment of the Greenland settlements in the second half of the 15th century?</u> The scientists suspect that a combination of causes made life there unbearable for the Scandinavian immigrants. For instance, there was hardly any demand anymore for walrus tusks and seal skins, the colony's most important export items. What's more, by the mid-14th century, regular ship traffic with Norway and Iceland had ceased.
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As a result, <u>Greenland's residents were increasingly isolated from their mother countries. Although they urgently needed building lumber and iron tools, they could now only get their hands on them sporadically.</u> "It became more and more difficult for the Greenlanders to attract merchants from Europe to the island," speculates Jette Arneborg, an archeologist at the National Museum of Denmark, in Copenhagen. "But, without trade, they couldn't survive in the long run." _<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/archaeologists-uncover-clues-to-why-vikings-abandoned-greenland-a-876626.html">Spiegel.de</a></blockquote>
The Spiegel article above cites archaelogical research that suggests that the abandonment of Greenland was more of a tactical retreat than a "dieoff." The young women had long since been packed off for greener pastures, there were no more babies, and toward the end of the colony, it was apparently only the die-hard old cobbers who remained.<br><br>
It is only relatively recently that the glacial ice has melted back to allow a better examination of crops and wild forage and forest that grew on the edge of Viking settlements. In other words, Greenland is just now recovering from the icy ravages of the deep freeze conditions of the Little Ice Age.<br><br>
<blockquote>In the final phase, it was young people of child-bearing age in particular who saw no future for themselves on the island. The excavators found hardly any skeletons of young women on a cemetery from the late period.
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...In addition, there was a rural exodus in their Scandinavian countries at the time, and the population in the more remote regions of Iceland, Norway and Denmark was thinning out. This, in turn, freed up farms and estates for returnees from Greenland.<br><br>
However, the Greenlanders didn't leave their houses in a precipitous fashion. Aside from a gold signet ring in the grave of a bishop, valuable items, such as silver and gold crucifixes, have not been discovered anywhere on the island. <u>The archeologists interpret this as a sign that the departure from the colony proceeded in an orderly manner, and that the residents took any valuable objects along. "If they had died out as a result of diseases or natural disasters, we would certainly have found such precious items long ago," says Lynnerup.</u> _Spiegel.de</blockquote>
Lately, it is beginning to warm up again on Greenland -- although cattle and barley growers have been slow to jump at the opportunity to put in new herds and crops there.<br><br>
Perhaps Greenland is still just too cold -- even for the Vikings and Vikings at heart.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-10195035261636481602013-01-12T00:01:00.000-08:002013-01-12T00:01:00.025-08:00Who Will Become the 51st US State?The USA has been stuck on just 50 states <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_date_of_statehood">for over half a century now</a>. There has been a good deal of <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21566697-america-may-not-want-what-its-caribbean-outpost-now-does-51st-state">talk about adding Puerto Rico to the US as the 51st state</a>, but both the Puerto Rican population and the US population seem at least a little bit ambivalent about that choice.
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cwc3G2AFXrw/UPCDjTR9MAI/AAAAAAAANvg/xxLzNM42uss/s1600/US_flag_51_stars.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="336" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cwc3G2AFXrw/UPCDjTR9MAI/AAAAAAAANvg/xxLzNM42uss/s640/US_flag_51_stars.svg.png" width="610" /></a><center><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/51st_state">51 Star US Flag </a></center></div>
<br />Another candidate that has been tossed around a bit, is <i>Taiwan</i>!<blockquote>...David Chou comes right out and says it: Taiwan should become the 51st state of the United States.
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Mr. Chou is not joking. He has a plan. It may never work, but just try telling Mr. Chou that. He has been working on it for years.
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Mr. Chou set up the 51 Club in 1994 to promote his idea. He admitted 51 members. But to him it is not a gimmick. It is a cause. And with all the confusing explanations that Taiwan's Government puts forth about whether it is part of China or something separate, Mr. Chou's unusual proposal is refreshingly straightforward.
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''If we were a state, our most serious problem -- security -- would be solved,'' said Mr. Chou, 49, who looks and sounds considerably more normal than his proposal might suggest. ''The current Government can't solve it; neither can the opposition. But statehood can.'' _<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1999/08/04/world/taipei-journal-color-taiwan-red-white-and-blue-he-s-serious.html">NYT</a></blockquote>Perhaps it is possible that the security situation for Taiwan may grow dire enough for its people to look to the US for the "absolute security" that statehood would guarantee. Time will tell.
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AlI5vmeinkw/UPCDoPKUekI/AAAAAAAANvo/bpD30_PPwx8/s1600/countrychart_looking_for_51st_state.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AlI5vmeinkw/UPCDoPKUekI/AAAAAAAANvo/bpD30_PPwx8/s640/countrychart_looking_for_51st_state.jpg" width="610" /></a><center><a href="http://www.visibone.com/countries/countrychart_2040.jpg">World Map: In Search of 51st State</a></center></div>
<br />The names of other currently independent nations -- such as Canada and Mexico -- have been tossed around for potential statehood, ever since the passage of NAFTA. <br><br> The USA's North American neighbors already exist under a US defence umbrella, and are given very privileged trade status. But actual statehood may be too much for the US' neighbors to the north and south to swallow, for now.<br><br>
Other potential candidates across the Pacific in addition to Taiwan that have been discussed in the context of statehood, include the rapidly de-populating <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/51st_state">Japan</a>, the Philippine Islands, and South Korea. As with Taiwan, the most likely reason for a majority of the people of any of those countries to be willing to submit to US statehood, would be for security reasons -- although economic and demographic reasons may also come into play over time.<br><br>
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_territorial_acquisitions">Most of the US' great land acquisition took place during the 1800s. </a>Since the year 1900, the US has given up more territory than it has acquired. One of the most important territories to have given up, was the Panama Canal Zone. The Philippine Islands were also given up in 1946, after having been considered for full statehood prior to the Japanese occupation.<br><br>
It may seem odd to be talking about adding more states to the USA, when so many current US states have been discussing the possibility of secession from an increasingly dysfunctional union. <br><br>Under President Obama, the US government has overstepped itself far beyond the putative limits of the US Constitution, as never before. For that reason, as well as for other reasons, a number of scholars are <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20060709005445/http://www.transnational.org/forum/meet/2004/Galtung_USempireFall.html">predicting the collapse and dissolution of the USA as we currently know it</a>.<br><br>
But for such a collapse to occur, there would need to be some form of viable alternative as global economic, military, and political hegemon. To this point, nothing except a coming anarchy has shown its future face as a replacement for the USA.<br><br>
And even in decline, some organisations have been known to attempt to bloat themselves up to massively oversized proportions, just before the end. Much like spouses in a failing marriage often choose to have more children, in a last-ditch attempt to preserve the union.<br><br>
Citizens of the US are being given an opportunity -- in a second Obama term -- of seeing how badly the US could have declined during a second Jimmy Carter term. National malaise under Carter was admittedly severe. If not for the surprising "US fracking boom," things would likely be even worse by now, under Obama.<br><br>
If Obama embraces the boom in US oil & gas resources, along with the coming boom in next-gen nuclear power reactors and the accompanying booms in nanotech, biotech, materials science, advanced automated manufacturing, and a number of other significant scientific and technological advancements which an abundant economy would allow -- he could be known to future generations as one of the great US presidents, despite the underlying reality.<br><br>
Should that unlikely recantation of his previous life occur, the US might be looking at rates of economic growth previously only dreamed of in the history of the country. At that point, the idea of 51 states -- or 57 states, for that matter -- would not seem such outrageous subject matter.<br><br>
In such a case, for the sake of avoiding a more rapid decline into an Idiocracy, the US might well choose candidate territories with higher -- rather than lower -- population average IQs than the current US population IQ average..
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-767228790367564302013-01-11T11:48:00.001-08:002013-01-11T11:48:40.092-08:00Germany's Bad Energy Choices Leading into Cul de Sac?<b><i><u>Previously published on <a href="http://alfin2300.blogspot.com">Al Fin Energy</a></u></i></b>
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Big wind and big solar are hopelessly intermittent and unreliable forms of energy production. But Germany has rashly <a href="http://www.climatespectator.com.au/news/germany-raises-renewables-target-40-eyes-cap-support">committed itself to supplying 40% of its power from the intermittent unreliables by 2020</a>. As a result of this giant leap of faith, German energy planners are scrambling for ways to convert big wind and big solar energy to more reliable forms of energy that can be stored, and used whenever needed.
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fx_cGhyOfFI/UO8Lcg8s18I/AAAAAAAANvE/u1S6Dnn4y4w/s1600/a_power2gas_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fx_cGhyOfFI/UO8Lcg8s18I/AAAAAAAANvE/u1S6Dnn4y4w/s640/a_power2gas_.jpg" width="640" /></a><center><a href="http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/news-events/news-archive/2013/january/%E2%82%AC33-million-power-to-gas-project-to-develop-megawatt-scale-electrolysers-in-germany">P2G Electricity to Methane Scheme</a></center></div>
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As seen in the diagram above, a new €3.3 million project aims to produce methane from wind and solar generated electricity, using alkaline electrolyser stacks.<blockquote>Once the hydrogen has been produced it passes through a methanisation process. The resulting methane can be injected directly into the natural gas grid, thus allowing for renewable energy storage on a timescale of months or more. The gas contributes to decarbonising the grid, and can be used for electricity generation or to fuel natural gas vehicles. _<a href="http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/news-events/news-archive/2013/january/%E2%82%AC33-million-power-to-gas-project-to-develop-megawatt-scale-electrolysers-in-germany">FuelCellToday</a></blockquote>Here is more information about an earlier, preliminary research project to prove the concept:<br><blockquote>The Centre for Solar Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) has inaugurated a research facility to convert solar power to methane. The methane is then added to the natural gas grid.
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The project uses solar power to electrolyse water in a pressurised alkaline electrolyser, producing hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen gas then undergoes methanation, and with the facility able to produce up to 300 cubic meters of renewable methane per day, it is the largest of its type in the world. _<a href="http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/news-events/news-archive/2012/october/world%E2%80%99s-largest-gas-to-power-plant-for-methane-production-goes-into-operation">FuelCellToday</a></blockquote>
<a href="http://www.zsw-bw.de/infoportal/presseinformationen/presse-detail/zsw-entwickelt-power-to-gas-elektrolyse-im-megawatt-massstab.html">More information from ZSW (in German)</a><Br><br>
Needless to say, the concentration of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere is vanishingly small (0.04%) -- making atmospheric CO2 far too rare and expensive as a CO2 source, for an industrial-scale project. This being the case, it is clear that the project will have to use concentrated CO2 effluent from a hydrocarbon-burning power plant, cement plant, or other industrial scale plant.<br><br>
And as it happens, Germany is burning much more coal lately, as a result of its impulsive decision to shut down its nuclear power plants. All of which brings up a very good question: "If Germans want to produce methane from CO2 and H2 from the electrolysis of water, why not use nuclear power as your source of electricity?" Nuclear power is cheaper, more reliable, and more potentially abundant than the intermittent unreliables -- big wind and big solar.<br><br>
Perhaps the answer to the question is that the Germans are not actually serious about all of this, but are merely posturing for the energy and environmental media -- and for green oriented voters and power blocs.<br><br>
That would be a shame. Germany is in dire need of competent people who are willing to take a serious approach to present and future electrical power needs.<br><br>
Today's bad choices by German leaders will have the effect of limiting possible good choices in the future. Germany is being painted into a corner, led into a cul de sac, by faux environmental greens who have been given too much power across the EU.<br><br>
The green ideology is doing for Germany and the EU what the communist ideology did for the former USSR.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-16889714618364673372013-01-10T09:23:00.001-08:002013-01-10T09:23:48.488-08:00Sceptics vs. Deniers: What Would a Scientist Do?Science is impossible without a healthy scepticism, along with a voracious appetite for data -- and data transparency. Climate sceptics, for example, demand a higher level of evidence to support "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming," before the energy industries of advanced nations are turned on their heads, and before many trillions of dollars are forcibly redistributed from advanced nations to the emerging and third world nations -- using the United Nations and the IPCC as intermediaries in the redistribution of these funds.<br>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ESs-SQwjrf0/UO74YqJBMUI/AAAAAAAANug/4uKl7FJYa-g/s1600/aascientist_skeptical_.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="260" width="400" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ESs-SQwjrf0/UO74YqJBMUI/AAAAAAAANug/4uKl7FJYa-g/s400/aascientist_skeptical_.gif" /></a><center><a href="http://joannenova.com.au/2011/08/we-reclaimed-the-word-skeptic-next-we-reclaim-scientist/">Sceptical Scientist JoNova</a></center></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Skepticism is generally viewed as a reluctance to believe in something. Skepticists demand evidence, and cold hard facts that can be tested and retested. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The reason that science is so trustworthy is the level of evidence that is demanded before an idea is accepted as truth, and even then, scientists must be willing to reexamine their fundamental ideas</span>. _<a href="http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_does_it_mean_to_describe_a_scientist_as_skeptical">Answers</a></blockquote><br>
Climate science has been infiltrated by political interests, who support the catastrophic alarmist attitude toward climate -- and who urge a rapid and precipitous disruption in energy industries, along with a massive transfer of funds from productive nations to non-productive and politically connected entities.<br><br>
Other sciences have likewise been infiltrated by political activists, who wish to declare the science "settled" long before the debate has even begun, or the data collected. The field of genetics and human behaviour, the study of gender differences, and the study of human biodiversity (HBD) in general, have all been caught and hamstrung in the web of politically correct corruption.<br><br>
Here is how you can tell the difference between a healthy scientific "sceptic," and a corrupt "denier" of a political activist: The sceptic wants to open up scientific enquiry, in order to learn as much as possible about the topic. The denier, in contrast, wishes to shut down any free enquiry into the question, and declare the matter settled.<br><br>
The distinction is easily made. And it is a crucial distinction to make, in this age of politically correct corruption of the scientific process by political interests -- extending well into both governmental and private funding agencies of science.<br><br>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-I-51e0ys1Eg/UO74tSs9YvI/AAAAAAAANus/TZM7AhLU8DU/s1600/unskeptical_II-sml-p13b.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="262" width="400" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-I-51e0ys1Eg/UO74tSs9YvI/AAAAAAAANus/TZM7AhLU8DU/s400/unskeptical_II-sml-p13b.gif" /></a><center><a href="http://joannenova.com.au/2011/08/we-reclaimed-the-word-skeptic-next-we-reclaim-scientist/">JoNova "Unsceptical Scientist"</a></center></div>
Does the group or individual wish to open the question to all honest investigators, or is the intent to shut down all honest and open investigation?<br><br>
It doesn't matter if the person or group calls himself or itself "sceptical" or not. Judge them by their actions. Do they promote free and open enquiry, with complete data transparency and availability? Or do they want to close the debate decades before the necessary data can be compiled and analysed?<br><br>
Only a complicit news media and a thoroughly dishonest political regime and academic regime could keep pseudo-scientific hoaxes such as carbon hysteria and climate alarmism, alive.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-14114673235671559152013-01-09T08:46:00.000-08:002013-01-09T08:46:51.799-08:00Consider it Fair Warning
In recent years, world-class investment gurus such as Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff <a href="http://www.theblaze.com/stories/buy-a-gun-keep-your-powder-dry-economists-warn-of-looming-economic-911/">and more</a>, have been recommending that ordinary investors start planning to provide basic life necessities for themselves and their families, in the face of <b>a potentially catastrophic global economic breakdown caused by suicidal government economic policies</b>.<br><br>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BIU9uFgbbyg/UO2eyEcQaOI/AAAAAAAANuE/9wAjzAkbTwo/s1600/trading-post.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="300" width="400" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BIU9uFgbbyg/UO2eyEcQaOI/AAAAAAAANuE/9wAjzAkbTwo/s400/trading-post.jpg" /></a><center>Post-Apocalyptic Trading Post</center></div>
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Such quasi-apocalyptic talk is not necessarily hyperbole. Consider it more in the territory of "fair warning."<br><br>
Modern government economic policies from the US to Europe to Australia, are built upon tens or hundreds of $trillions of imaginary capital and wealth which does not actually exist in the real world. This "phantom wealth" resides mainly within the imagination. It is an article of faith and economic belief systems.<br><br> Whether there is a catastrophic and bloody economic collapse depends largely upon the psychology of the herd -- and what it might take to collapse the belief system and set off a stampede.<br><br>
The combination of exponentially growing debt with an ongoing demographic collapse of core populations, casts ominous spells over the futures of most of the nations of the developed world. There is still time to change course and correct past mistakes -- but there is no political will to do so. And there is not enough "grit" in most modern populations to turn toward sustainable demographic and fiscal policies, even if a few politicians at the top had the backbone to promote such changes in policy.<Br><br>
<a href="http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/10/federal-spending-by-the-numbers-2012">The US is on a suicidal economic course to disaster</a>. This is not a new finding, but the rate of economic decline has accelerated significantly in recent years, and is likely to accelerate even more over the next few years.<br><br>
<a href="http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2011/06/can-we-please-stop-pretending-gdp-is.html">It takes almost $10 in new US government spending to achieve $1 in new GDP growth</a>. That "return on investment" has been falling steadily as the type of new government spending changes away from the "infrastructure" category, inexorably over to the "entitlement" category. The same dead end trend is taking place from Australia to Europe to Japan to Canada.
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7FIsUCYSNxI/UO2ZamzNKuI/AAAAAAAANto/HF7m6hzCgbQ/s1600/174_be%2Brev%2Bentitlements.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="296" width="400" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7FIsUCYSNxI/UO2ZamzNKuI/AAAAAAAANto/HF7m6hzCgbQ/s400/174_be%2Brev%2Bentitlements.jpg" /></a><center>Entitlements Overwhelm Revenues</center></div>
<br>As spending for entitlements overruns and overwhelms all sources of revenue, government borrowing to pay for both infrastructural and entitlement spending -- plus the interest on pre-existing debt -- explodes through the roof. Eventually lenders -- both foreign and domestic -- bail out of government bonds and notes. The government will no longer be able to borrow on open markets, and will be forced to print money to pay its debts and operating expenses.<br><br>
Any student of history worth his salt understands what happens to the empire when it runs out of "gold," or whatever is perceived as real wealth to pay its bills and the salaries of its centurions, clerks, and PR flacks.<br><br>
The Obama administration was given a magnificent gift in the form of the "fracking revolution." The economic growth that has occurred and will continue to occur as a result of this unexpected "gift horse" will help cover up and take the edges off the near term decline.<br><br>
But the Obama administration's thick-headed and reactionary economic policies are poison to the economy as a whole. Real unemployment remains at historically high levels, dependency on government benefits continues growing to record levels, and there is only so much happy talk that the media can spread around to cover up what is essentially a crappy economic outlook.<br><br>
Here is a brief summary of <a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38371.html">the "Ponzi Finance Scheme"</a> that underlies the economies of modern developed nations.<br><br>
Argentina has gone through this cycle multiple times, and is approaching the critical stage of yet another dysfunctional populist economic cycle. It is easy to sit back in one's easy chair before a fire in Munchen or Victoria, and "tut tut" over Argentina's perennial dysfunction and economic dunderheadedness. But when the dysfunction reaches your front doorstep, if you have not made preparations you will have a few other choice expletives forced from your lips.<br><br>
It is never too late to have a dangerous childhood.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-33324079406229459162013-01-08T12:33:00.001-08:002013-01-08T12:33:25.445-08:00Global Flow of Human ResourcesWhen we think of a global brain drain, we typically think of third world countries in Africa, and emerging nations in Asia and South America. Despite some recent boom years, even Russia and China are losing significant numbers of their best and most ambitious scientists, engineers, and professionals.
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YVVfLnUMWTA/UOx-f5U3N2I/AAAAAAAANtM/VifkZyp-FMw/s1600/global_migration_2005.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="498" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YVVfLnUMWTA/UOx-f5U3N2I/AAAAAAAANtM/VifkZyp-FMw/s640/global_migration_2005.jpg" width="600" /></a><a href="http://www.emersonkent.com/map_archive/world_map_2005_global_migration.htm">Global Migration Patterns 2005</a></div>
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<blockquote><i>More than 150,000 mainlanders [Chinese] obtained overseas citizenship last year</i>, meaning they have made a new home, or an alternative one. The report says <b>the rich and educated elites are becoming the main force in the latest round of emigration, and that many had left in search of a more democratic society, a cleaner environment and better educational opportunities. The main beneficiaries were the US (87,000), Canada and Australia (30,000 each) and New Zealand (6,000)</b>.
<br><br>
Li Xiaogang, a research director of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, says <u>the elite are leaving because China's social and political development has not kept up with the economic environment in which they achieved their success</u>. _<a href="http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1120829/brain-drain-should-send-message-chinas-leaders">Chinese Emigration</a></blockquote>
Even plucky Israel, with a loyal and vibrant, hardworking and intelligent population, loses educated and skilled people to lands with perceived greater opportunity.
<blockquote>Most Israelis who are headed abroad in search of economic opportunities or furthering their professional careers have their sights set on the United States, although the ultimate destination is largely a function of educational achievements. Emigrants from Israel to the United States tend to be more educated or professionally qualified than those choosing other destinations,...<br><br>
...Among emigrant families where both spouses were born in Israel, 64% went to the United States, 18% to central or western Europe, 3% to eastern Europe and 15% to other destinations. <br><br>
...Of the emigrants with undergraduate degrees, 60% went to the United States and 20% to Europe, while for those with a master's degree these figures were 62% and 19%, respectively. Among the Israeli emigrants with a medical degree, 72% chose the United States and 7.6% headed to Europe. For those with a Ph.D., these numbers were nearly 80% and 13%, respectively. _<a href="http://www.haaretz.com/business/for-educated-israelis-america-is-still-the-land-of-greatest-opportunity.premium-1.492735">Haaretz</a></blockquote>
Even highly skilled and educated professionals and <a href="http://www.andrewoswald.com/docs/warwickshanghai2007.pdf">scientists from the UK and Europe are leaving for better opportunities in Canada, the US, Australia, and Switzerland. (PDF)</a><br><br>
Of course, under US President Obama, US economic prospects continue to be tenuous -- with large numbers of business leaders complaining about the Obama administration's anti-private sector bias, and a high level of uncertainty as to crucial future economic policies in the US. Such dissatisfaction with the economically incompetent US president has kept US employment levels and new business startups suppressed far beyond what would have occurred in a normal recovery.<br><br>
The prolonged Obama recession has led to what many in the media have labeled a "reverse brain drain" back to countries of origin for many educated emigrants and persons on educational visas. But in the larger scheme of things, such a "reverse brain drain" constitutes more of an eddy current than a genuinely significant counter-current -- at least so far.<br><br>
Give Obama enough time to wreck the US economy, and such a reverse brain drain may well develop in earnest. That would require rational economic policies to be instituted in other countries, of course, which is not typically seen these days.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-7582595819978574272013-01-07T15:53:00.000-08:002013-01-07T16:10:24.797-08:00For Now: It's The Family, Stupid!; Tomorrow, It Will Be Something Quite Different<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ecVeejKuUO0/UOtiUqeLYXI/AAAAAAAANs0/Wf1Gn2mYAOE/s1600/woman_exec.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="267" width="400" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ecVeejKuUO0/UOtiUqeLYXI/AAAAAAAANs0/Wf1Gn2mYAOE/s400/woman_exec.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">Question: Why Are So Few Women at the Top of Their Professions or Companies?</span><br />
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The answer to that question 50 years ago was quite different than the answer to that question today. And the answer to the question today, is quite different from the answer tomorrow. Yesterday's women may not have had the opportunities to compete beyond "the glass ceiling." As for today's women? Kay S. Hymowitz explains why today's women are not willing to fight for the top job:<br />
<blockquote>
...<b>women don’t ascend the career ladder in the business world the way men do</b>. According to Catalyst, just 37 percent of those who receive the first major promotion—to manager—are women. And the higher you go, the scarcer women get. Only 26 percent of vice presidents and senior executives are female, as are 14 percent of executive committees, and those numbers haven’t changed in years.<br />
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It seems that<b> few women are even auditioning for the star positions</b>. A longitudinal study of Booth School of Business graduates at the University of Chicago found <b>men and women launching careers in equal numbers and, if you take into account differences in their industries and subspecialties, earning about the same amount of money at the outset</b>. <u><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Ten years later, though, barely half of the female grads—52 percent—were working full-time, compared with over 90 percent of the men</span></i></b></u>.<br><br>
<b>In their thirties and forties, women with children are typically looking for ways to work less, not more.</b> They’re <i>twice as likely as men to work part-time, and surveys show that that’s the way they want it</i>. Female physicians have been avoiding emergency-room medicine and flocking to dermatology and pediatrics, which bring fewer emergency calls and night hours. Harvard economists Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz have demonstrated that women’s preference for fewer and more flexible hours has transformed a number of professional occupations, including veterinary medicine, pharmacy work, and certain medical specialties. The group practices that have all but replaced lone practitioners in these fields allow women to limit their night and weekend hours, work three or four days a week, and avoid the headaches of ownership.
<i>The rising generation of women doesn’t look likely to change any of this. One recent survey of students by four University of Wisconsin psychologists found that college women, as they planned their careers (and they did expect to work), were already thinking about cutting back hours when they had children</i>. <u>A recent Gallup poll showed that 44 percent of women wished that they didn’t work at all, compared with 22 percent of men</u>. _<a href="http://www.city-journal.org/2012/22_4_alpha-female.html">Kay S. Hymowitz</a></blockquote>
Ignore biology at your peril -- unless you are a politician, journalist, professor, or a bureaucrat -- and do not pay a penalty for your egregious mistakes.<br><br>
So, yesterday's woman could not get to the top of the heap even if she wanted to. Today's woman, for the most part, doesn't want to pay the penalty for reaching the top, and staying there. What about tomorrow's woman?<br><br>
The problem for tomorrow's women will be more complex, as coming generations of women are being raised more by peers and consumer electronics offerings than by adults who are capable of passing along meaningful principles of navigating their way through life.<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ydDamKycaLQ/UOtgoaZJ-gI/AAAAAAAANsY/k-jwlYr8-c0/s1600/difficult_era_for_girls.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="266" width="400" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ydDamKycaLQ/UOtgoaZJ-gI/AAAAAAAANsY/k-jwlYr8-c0/s400/difficult_era_for_girls.jpg" /></a><center><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2258015/Steve-Biddulph-An-aunties-army-needed-save-worlds-girls-consumer-culture-claims-psychologist.html">Catastrophic Crisis for Girls</a></center></div>
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<blockquote>...young girls are in a ‘catastrophic’ state of crisis because of the ‘toxic’ influences of advertising, celebrity and pornography which pressurise them to grow up too quickly._<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2258015/Steve-Biddulph-An-aunties-army-needed-save-worlds-girls-consumer-culture-claims-psychologist.html">Daily Mail</a></blockquote>What if there is even a tiny sliver of truth in the quote above? Then rather than expect tomorrow's generations of young women to lead humans into a brave new future, we should more likely expect them to create huge new headaches for anyone even remotely connected to them.<br><br>
The human capital of a society is its most precious resource. What would cause a society to squander its present and future resources -- male and female, young and adult -- at such a prodigal and cynical rate?<br><br>
It may be that most of tomorrow's women will be challenged maintaining a halfway competent retail counter, or even household accounts -- much less planning important tactics and strategies for the survival or ascendancy of important public and private entities.<br><br>
Where will tomorrow's competent women (and men) come from, if popular culture, the educational establishment, and the family have all been corrupted to the point of being unable to instill confidence that is based upon true competency in meaningful skills?<br><br>
A lot more money is being spent on raising girls up to competitive levels in science, technology, law, medicine, business, and government. But most of that money is being mis-spent on political and ideological strategies that take no account of biology and genetics -- and are thus destined to fail.<br><br>
Boys are certainly being neglected by modern hyper-feminised PC society, but in the long run that may be to their advantage -- once more unpaid volunteer mentors for boys come along and figure out what is what.<br><br>
Young women, however, are caught in the political feminist's web of control, and may never emerge from the trap as a whole, independent, thinking, competent person, separate from the PC groupthink police and informer network. More's the pity.<br><br>
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-18068106172562777722013-01-05T08:25:00.000-08:002013-01-05T09:35:26.077-08:00American Monkeys Should Look to Taller Trees
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<span style="font-size: large;">American monkeys are under stress from other countries’ monkeys in regards to less complex, easier-to-make products. So the U.S. [<i>monkeys</i>] should look to the taller trees.</span> The tallest trees in product space are pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and machinery. It’s very hard to get into those. Very few countries are in that game.
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That is why I say the really long-term play is for the U.S. to be the source of the machinery that will power the coming global manufacturing revolution. The U.S. can grow by using capabilities that few others have.<br />
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...I think 3-D printing could change the dynamics. I use 3-D printing as shorthand for shorter production runs, more design, and much closer to the market. It’s a paradigmatic shift in what manufacturing is going to look like. _<a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/news/509281/you-must-make-the-new-machines/">Ricardo Hausman on Future Manufacturing in Technology Review</a></blockquote>Hausman is one of several economists who are beginning to look at how a resurgence in manufacturing might boost US and other western economies back into a competitive position -- or at least into a position where they could imagine a longer term, livable future. He mentions 3-D printing, which is likely to develop into many significant niche markets, but how long will it be before molecular nano-manufacturing steps in to take over all of the niches?<br><br>
The shale gas fracking boom has helped to trigger a US resurgence in manufacturing related to chemicals and other industries that rely on cheap natural gas and cheap electricity. But there are a number of other ways to make new-generation manufacturing more viable for advanced western nations.
<blockquote>The strategy adopted by many multinational conglomerates, whether based in the U.S. or in Europe, was simple: <i>substitute inexpensive labor for capital</i>. Why invest in a machine to assemble iPhones when Chinese companies could throw half a million workers at the problem? The Internet, telephones, and affordable air travel and sea shipping made it easier than ever to coördinate labor from far away.
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<u>Partly as a result, the U.S. lost about six million manufacturing jobs—33 percent of the total—between 2000 and 2010, and China has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest producer of manufactured goods</u>. But the impact extends beyond macroeconomic statistics.<br><br>
...<u><b><i>Lately, however, economic trends have been turning.</i></b></u> Wages in China’s southern cities have been rising fast and may soon reach $6 an hour, about what they are in Mexico. Boston Consulting Group—the same consulting firm that told clients to run, not walk, overseas—now says it’s time to “reassess” China and estimates that for some products, that country’s overall cost advantage could disappear by 2015.
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The vanishing comparative advantage of Asian cheap labor isn’t the only reason for companies to question offshore manufacturing. Natural catastrophes can occur anywhere, but the risks of long supply lines became apparent in 2011, when the Japanese earthquake and tsunami interrupted shipments of computer chips and floods in Thailand left disk-drive factories under 10 feet of water. Meanwhile, higher oil prices have quietly raised the cost of shipping goods. And a bonanza of cheap natural gas has made the U.S. a relatively cheap place to manufacture many basic chemicals and is providing industries with an inexpensive source of power.<br><br>
...The U.S. holds advantages in many advanced technologies, such as simulation and digital design, the use of “big data,” and nanotechnology. All of these can play a valuable role in creating innovative new manufacturing processes (and not just products). Andrew McAfee, a researcher at MIT’s Sloan School of Business, says it’s also hard to ignore coming changes like robots in warehouses, trucks that drive themselves, and additive manufacturing technologies that can create a complex airplane part for the price of a simple one. The greater the capital investment in automation, the less labor costs may matter. _<a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/news/509231/manufacturing-in-the-balance/">Antonio Regalado in TechnologyReview</a></blockquote>
Manufacturing that relates to agriculture -- and how to get the most sustainable production out of one's growing area -- is another promising area for US manufacturing. Producing agricultural machines which run on cheap natural gas would be one good idea. Producing robotic agricultural machines which free up farmers from labour limitations is another good idea for manufacturing in the agricultural field. There are many others that could help transform US agriculture into an even mightier economic powerhouse.<br><br>
Advanced genetic engineering will impact all aspects of our lives, from <a href="http://www.marklynas.org/2013/01/lecture-to-oxford-farming-conference-3-january-2013/">the food that we eat</a>, to the fuels we put in our fuel tanks, to the biomedical products that will presumably help us to live longer, healthier, more satisfied and productive lives. New machines that facilitate automated research, discovery, design, and production in genetic engineering will help to push that area of industry into the forefront -- for any nation that promotes their development.<br><br>
US technology has been bogged down on smart phones, pad computers, and other devices primarily devoted to trivial pursuits. There is nothing wrong with that, but those are not the transformative or disruptive technologies we are looking for. Weigh each new technology announcement on the scale of transformativeness or disruptiveness.<br><br>
The ideal disruptive technologies are the ones which help to liberate families and smaller communities from the tyranny of the mob, the tyranny of government. Think of all the things which government claims to provide to individuals, families, and communities -- and then think of ways to provide those things with advanced, new generation technologies.
That is the direction we should be heading.<br><br>
But we will see some difficult times -- some very irrational times -- between now and then. Hope for the best. But prepare for the worst.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-78405116578550944152013-01-04T06:38:00.001-08:002013-01-04T06:38:24.112-08:00Moving Toward a Brave New World<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
In Aldous Huxley's classic 1932 novel <a href="http://www.huxley.net/bnw/">Brave New World</a>, we are introduced to a future world of universal genetically engineered humans. Each person's destiny is precisely and genetically determined in the laboratory before birth, so as to promote harmony in the perfect society. "A place for everyone, and everyone in his place," would be an understated description of the brave new society.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PFTj8qx2K5E/UObo_YJ9ZKI/AAAAAAAANqY/06MpNKqU6OY/s1600/brave_new_world_cover_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="391" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PFTj8qx2K5E/UObo_YJ9ZKI/AAAAAAAANqY/06MpNKqU6OY/s400/brave_new_world_cover_1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://recordbrother.typepad.com/imagesilike/2005/03/a_brave_new_wor.html">Brave New World (narrated by author)</a></center>
An international team of researchers from MIT, Harvard, Tsinghua University, Columbia University, and the Rockefeller University, have taken a significant step toward <i>Brave New World</i> style complex genomic editing. Now scientists can efficiently add and delete genetic segments over multiple areas of the genome, simultaneously. The scientific world of genetic engineering is unlikely to ever be the same again.
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<blockquote>
Precise genome editing would have, the authors say, powerful applications across basic science, biotechnology and medicine. The technology, based on a bacterial defense system against viruses, could offer an easy-to-use, less-expensive way to engineer organisms that produce biofuels, to design animal models to study human disease, and to develop new therapies, among other potential applications.
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They further note that it could be used to treat human diseases, either inserting missing or dysfunctional genes, or removing harmful genetic elements with much more precision than any available techniques.<br />
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...Making use of naturally occurring bacterial protein-RNA systems that recognize and snip viral DNA, the researchers created DNA-editing complexes that include a nuclease enzyme, Cas9, bound to short RNA sequences. These sequences can be designed to target specific locations in the genome; when they encounter a match, the Cas9 nuclease cuts the DNA.<br />
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And each of the RNA segments can target a different sequence. “That’s the beauty of this—you can easily program a nuclease to target one or more positions in the genome,” Zhang says, noting that it can be used either to disrupt the function of a gene or to replace it with a new one. To replace the gene, the researchers must also add a DNA template for the new gene, which would be copied into the genome after the DNA is cut.
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The method is also very precise... _More at <a href="http://www.genengnews.com/gen-news-highlights/new-method-enables-multiplex-genome-engineering/81247828/">GenEngNews</a></blockquote>
<a href="http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2013/editing-the-genome-with-high-precision-0103.html">MIT News Release on story</a><br />
<blockquote>
Among other possible applications, this system could be used to design new therapies for diseases such as Huntington’s disease, which appears to be caused by a single abnormal gene. Clinical trials that use zinc finger nucleases to disable genes are now under way, and the new technology could offer a more efficient alternative.
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The system might also be useful for treating HIV by removing patients’ lymphocytes and mutating the CCR5 receptor, through which the virus enters cells. After being put back in the patient, such cells would resist infection.
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This approach could also make it easier to study human disease by inducing specific mutations in human stem cells. “Using this genome editing system, you can very systematically put in individual mutations and differentiate the stem cells into neurons or cardiomyocytes and see how the mutations alter the biology of the cells,” Zhang says. _<a href="http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2013/editing-the-genome-with-high-precision-0103.html">MIT</a></blockquote>
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In Huxley's <i>Brave New World</i>, human society is intentionally stratified by genetically programmed aptitude.<br />
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Brave New World is a benevolent dictatorship: a static, efficient, totalitarian welfare-state. There is no war, poverty or crime. Society is stratified by genetically-predestined caste. Intellectually superior Alphas are the top-dogs. Servile, purposely brain-damaged Gammas, Deltas and Epsilons toil away at the bottom. The lower orders are necessary in BNW because Alphas - even soma-fuelled Alphas - could allegedly never be happy doing menial jobs. _<a href="http://www.huxley.net/">http://www.huxley.net/</a></blockquote>
But in the developing Brave New World of genetic engineering, everyone will want to be an Alpha.<br />
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It will be many years before genome editing techniques are reliable enough to use routinely in humans. But that will not prevent them from being used experimentally on political prisoners, for example, inside totalitarian states. And wouldn't it be ironic if the first genetically designed super-intelligent human turned out to be "an enemy of the state?"<br />
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Obscure developments in out of the way laboratories can have profound and widespread effects on the human world. Watch closely, and always consider your options.
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al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-21646146088618510592013-01-03T08:17:00.002-08:002013-01-03T08:39:27.106-08:00"Attack Proofing" The Dangerous Child; Never Too Late<b><i>Previously published on <a href="http://alfin2101.blogspot.com">Al Fin, the Next Level</a></i></b>
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<iframe width="520" height="395" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/WuSxiEGZ7gc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br>
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The clip above depicts John Perkins with different students, demonstrating the "contact flow" quasi-sparring method of training. Perkins is the developer of the "<a href="http://attackproof.com/home.html">Attack Proof</a>" method of self defence.<br><br>Notice how the speed of interaction can be varied depending upon the level of expertise, control, and familiarity with the techniques and the training partner.
<br><br>Slow contact training of this sort is safe, and an excellent introduction to the balance and dynamics of actual physical confrontation. Several years of this type of training, beginning at a young age, could lend a significant amount of dangerousness to any child.<br><br>
<a href="http://attackproof.com/watch-VIDEO-CLIPS-of-KCD-self-defense-training.html">An entire set of video clips</a>
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Perkins emphasises "what works and what doesn't work." Many of the classical techniques of defence taught in traditional martial arts classes are not likely to work on the street. Perkins -- a former law enforcement officer -- focuses on what works.<br><br>
Another approach to practical no-nonsense street level defence comes from <a href="http://www.americancombato.com/">the American Combato system</a> from Bradley Steiner. Four years of free newsletters are available at the American Combato website. More free how-to articles from the same source <a href="http://www.seattlecombatives.com/">are available here</a>.<br><br>
Both gentlemen mentioned above teach their systems as a business, but offer a significant amount of information online free of charge.<br><br>
It is never too late to have a dangerous childhood.<br><br>
h/t to commenter "<a href="http://www.blogger.com/profile/13059526072636694255">Inthewest</a>"
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-39179708734982800612013-01-03T06:24:00.002-08:002013-01-03T08:55:31.312-08:00Europe Exhausting Herself Running From Energy Boogeymen<b><i>Cross-posted from <a href="http://alfin2300.blogspot.com">Al Fin Energy</a></i></b>
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Europe's high energy costs are driving increasing numbers of industries and large employers overseas. Most of Europe's high energy costs are caused by Europe's reflexive flight from inexpensive energy of the hydrocarbon and nuclear varieties.
<blockquote>High energy costs are emerging as an issue in Europe that is prompting debate, including questioning of the Continent’s clean energy initiatives. Over the past few years, Europe has spent tens of billions of euros in an effort to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. <br><br>“We embarked on a big transition to a low-carbon economy without taking into account the cost and without factoring in the competitive impact,” says Fabien Roques, head of European power and carbon at the energy consulting firm IHS CERA in Paris. “I think there will be a critical review of some of these policies in the next few years.” _<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/business/energy-environment/27iht-green27.html?_r=1&">NewYorkTimes</a></blockquote>
Carbon dioxide is boogeyman #1 for the European greens who control much of the continent's energy policy. But Europe's ineffectual attempts to reduce carbon emissions amount to suicidal self-flagellation and self-strangulation. It is all grand theatre, with the end result being self righteous self-immolation. <br><br>
Boogeyman #2 is nuclear power. Germany is the poster boy of sacrificial self-castration in this regard.<blockquote>The changes have been rapid. Nuclear power supplies 17 percent of the country’s energy needs, down from 23, while renewables have climbed from 20 to 25 percent in just months.<br><br>
...Despite technological advances, wind, solar, hydro and other green energy sources still remain an unprofitable investment in a fair market. The way to encourage their exploitation is through a set of feed-in tariffs, a policy where energy companies are forced to buy electricity from green generators at a price set by the government (which is usually legislated to remain the same for two decades).<br><br>
The German government has passed the cost of the payment from the energy companies to the consumer... This week, energy companies announced that the charge would go up by 47 percent for next year. The average Germany household will now pay €250 a year to sponsor green energy producers, four times more than in 2009. _<a href="http://rt.com/news/germany-poland-nuclear-fukushima-574/">RT</a></blockquote>
But green energy is expensive and unreliable. Which means that big industries whose profit margins depend upon the use of inexpensive energy, must move overseas -- and take their good paying jobs with them.<br>
<blockquote>On Dec. 19, Voestalpine, an Austrian maker of high-quality steel for the auto industry, announced that it would build a plant in North America that would employ natural gas to reduce iron ore to a kind of raw iron that would then be used in the company's European blast furnaces.<br><br>
...Energy-intensive industries like chemicals and steel are, if not closing European plants outright, looking toward places like the United States that have lower energy costs as they pursue new investments.
<br><br>
BASF, the German chemical giant, has been outspoken about the consequences of energy costs for competitiveness and is building a new plant in Louisiana.<br><br>“We Europeans are currently paying up to four or five times more for natural gas than the Americans,” Harald Schwager, a member of the executive board at BASF, said last month. “Energy efficiency alone will not allow us to compensate for this. Of course, that means increased competition for all the European manufacturing sites.” _<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/business/energy-environment/27iht-green27.html?_r=2&">NYT</a></blockquote>
Europeans have unwittingly handed their futures over to saboteurs in high places. Green government officials and their advisors are pushing European economies over a cliff, for the sake of faux environmental fear mongering. They are running from the energy boogeymen, and in the process are destroying the economic futures of their people.<br><br>
Europeans are no longer living in a democracy, but are being controlled by a non-representative quasi-feudal system known as the European Union, based in Brussels. And the EU is essentially in thrall to the faux environmental power interests.<br><br>
With such suicidal leadership, it is no wonder that demographic projections show most European populations rapidly withering away.<br><br>
The future of Europe rests in the hands of her people, although Europeans have not been noted historically for understanding that fact -- except for the popular uprisings against communist governments in the late 1980s and early 1990s. <br><br>And there is very little time.al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-44488834512575236122013-01-02T06:55:00.000-08:002013-01-02T09:41:10.641-08:00Can Black People Be Trusted?<b><i><a href="http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2011/06/trusting-for-fairness.html">Trust is crucial in a society</a>. The level of trust in a society is related to economic activity, levels of happiness, levels of harmony, and other beneficial aspects of a well functioning society.</i></b>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-m48MAHSukVQ/UORFLn1yLHI/AAAAAAAANog/aB1dJZoe9IM/s1600/hoodedrobber.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="368" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-m48MAHSukVQ/UORFLn1yLHI/AAAAAAAANog/aB1dJZoe9IM/s400/hoodedrobber.JPG" width="400" /></a><center>Acting Black?</center></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Can Black People Be Trusted?</span>
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Yes. Like other people black people can be trusted to be who they are. The problem of living in a multicultural society is that one cultural group may not have a good understanding of what they can expect from another cultural group. Such misunderstanding can lead to failed expectations, <a href="http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2011/12/trust-and-violence.html">a growing lack of trust, outright hostility, and eventual violence</a> and low level inter-cultural wars and ethnic cleansing. <br><br>When societies choose to go multicultural, they should know what to expect from every one of the disparate cultures that they accept into the fold.
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In <a href="http://isteve.blogspot.com/2006/05/why-multicultural-societies-are-less.html">a classic blog posting from May of 2006</a>, Steve Sailer looks at multicultural societies from the standpoint of creativity:
<blockquote>Conventional wisdom holds that the more ethnically diverse a society is, the more "vibrant" its cultural creativity.<br><br>
This sounds plausible in theory, but down through history, the opposite is more likely to be true. Periclean Athens wasn't as cosmopolitan as Alexandria or Rome, and Fourteenth Century Florence was full of Italians but not much else, and so forth. Right now, America is more diverse than ever, but it sure doesn't seem as creative as it was for most of the 20th Century. _<a href="http://isteve.blogspot.com/2006/05/why-multicultural-societies-are-less.html">Steve Sailer</a></blockquote>
But a reduction in creativity is a rather mild criticism of multiculturalism. A much more telling criticism of multicultural societies is the lack of trust between subpopulations -- which leads to less economic activity, less happiness, and more violence.<br><br>
<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2254194/Three-teenage-boys-kidnapped-woman-22-Christmas-robbed-raped-hours-vomited-them.html">This story</a>, for example, relates how three black teenage boys in Philadelphia lay in wait outside a bar, for someone to rob. When they finally spotted a white woman sitting in a Jeep Cherokee, they proceeded to take turns raping her for several hours, while driving around Philadelphia in her car. They finished by stealing her handbag and running back home to the house of one of their mothers. <a href="http://violenceagainstwhites.wordpress.com/2012/12/31/blacks-kidnap-rape-and-beat-white-woman-on-christmas-day/">This source</a> has more information and links on the story.<br><br>
We know that <a href="http://www.colorofcrime.com/">blacks commit more violent crime than other ethnic/cultural groups</a> living in western societies. We know that blacks are less intelligent and less productive on average than most other ethnic and cultural groups. It appears that blacks tend to be more impulsive, with less self control, on average.<br><br>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bNm742EcAaE/UORLeyzi6kI/AAAAAAAANo4/7Rg71ISxDo0/s1600/IQ_by_GDP_by_race.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="300" width="400" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bNm742EcAaE/UORLeyzi6kI/AAAAAAAANo4/7Rg71ISxDo0/s400/IQ_by_GDP_by_race.gif" /></a></div><br>
These are things that we should expect from black populations, on average. So, when we say that we can trust people to be themselves, on average, that includes black people.<br><br>
So yes, black people can be trusted, on average, to be themselves. Part of the problem is no doubt cultural. Part of the problem is likely to be heritable, judging by statistics.<br><br>
Keep in mind that most black people are not violent criminals or thieves. A significant number of black people will be intelligent, productive, conscientious members of their society. Such people are assets to any society to which they belong.<br><br>
But going by statistics, and by crime rates, almost everywhere that high proportions of blacks are found, one also finds high crime rates, high poverty rates, high rates of governmental corruption, high rates of illegitimacy and inter-generational dependency on government benefits, and low levels of achievement.<br><br>
Do not judge every black person by these rates and statistics. Give every person -- regardless of ethnicity or culture -- a chance to prove himself. And be very careful out there.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-50161579810065259442013-01-01T07:12:00.000-08:002013-01-03T08:18:30.722-08:00New Year's Resolution: Always Carry 10 Concealed WeaponsDangerous children are most dangerous because of their creative minds and their wide range of practical skills. But the training of the dangerous child does not neglect the crucial aspects of self defence and self-preservation in the face of threat.<br><br>
Since it is never too late to have a dangerous childhood, we grownups should also take this New Year's opportunity to resolve to increase our own "DQ," dangerousness quotient. The best place to start is to learn how to "arm up" whenever we go out.<br><br>
Normally when we think of "concealed carry," we think of firearms. And certainly, concealed firearms are very useful in a situation when faced with a dangerous adversary, including those who are carrying a knife or a gun. But many places we go, we will have to do without firearms. We still need to carry 10 concealed weapons.
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-g0JQYEPIg88/UOMAQJCBJKI/AAAAAAAANno/UysN8mXTmw8/s1600/mosquito_gun.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="348" width="400" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-g0JQYEPIg88/UOMAQJCBJKI/AAAAAAAANno/UysN8mXTmw8/s400/mosquito_gun.jpg" /></a><center><a href="http://artofmanliness.com/2012/09/26/guide-to-concealed-carry/">Guide to Concealed Carry</a></center></div>
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"10 concealed weapons," you ask? "And how am I supposed to wear 10 weapons on my person without looking like a medieval Japanese samurai warrior?"<br><br>
Relax. You already carry 14 concealed weapons with you, even dressed in your birthday suit, unless you have had significant body parts removed.<br><br>
Although these are not the weapons that I am talking about, let's get them out of the way first:
<ol><li>Two feet</li>
<li>Two hands</li>
<li>Two elbows</li>
<li>Two knees</li>
<li>Two shoulders (!)</li>
<li>Two hips (!)</li>
<li>A hard head (!)</li>
<li>A brain</li>
</ol>
<b><i>Bonus weapon</i>: <u>Your teeth</u>!</b>
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<br>
The hands can be used open or closed, front or back, fingers first or heel of palm first. They can be used for striking, clawing (eyes etc.), clapping over the ears, choking, or a number of other things which I am not allowed by Google to mention at this time. ;-)<br><br>
Likewise for the other body parts -- the number of ways in which they may be used as weapons is almost endless. But again, those are not the weapons to which I refer in the title.<br><br>
Here is a short blurb on personal defense weapons offered by a website called <a href="http://www.weapons-universe.com/">http://www.weapons-universe.com</a> (no endorsement implied).<blockquote>For safety aware individuals, there are a variety of non-lethal personal defense weapons which are used for the act of defending oneself, one's property or the well-being of another from physical harm. Such personal defense weapons include <u>pepper spray</u> which is a chemical compound that irritates the eyes of your attacker to cause tears, pain, and even temporary blindness. Also an <u>air taser or stun gun</u> which is an incapacitant weapon used for subduing an attacker by administering electric shocks aimed at disrupting muscle functions. And expandable batons for less lethal self-defense, also called <u>collapsible or telescopic batons</u> are like metal sticks of less than arm's length used to defensively strike, jab, block, and can aid in the application of armlocks. And <u>SAP gloves</u>, also called weighted-knuckle gloves are a type of weapon used in hand to hand combat used to help protect your hands against injuries when punching without compromising the effectiveness of the punch. _<a href="http://www.weapons-universe.com/">WU</a></blockquote>
The collapsible baton is a particularly useful concealed weapon if it is well constructed. They are easily deformed in a real fight, so you may only get one good use out of it. Even so, if you know how to use a short stick in very close combat, a collapsible baton can save you from some of the more dangerous weapons.<br><br>
More on the short stick:
<blockquote>The Joongbong, or short stick, is the most versatile and easy to learn weapon. Once mastered, the principles of the Joongbong can be applied to any blunt weapon. The most comfortable length for the Joongbong is the length of your arm from the armpit to the middle fingertip when you stretch your arm out with your fingers fully open.<br><br>
Grip the Joongbong approximately one to two inches above the end. The tip of the Joongbong aims at the eyes or the Adam's apple of the opponent with your arm at almost a 90 degree angle to the Joongbong.<br><br>
There are five different blocks: high, cross, inside, outside, and low block. There are five offense skills: straight strike, thrust, inside cut, outside cut, and cross cuts. _<a href="http://www.junsado.com/short_stick.html">Junsado</a></blockquote>
There is a wide range of "wearable" weapons, including knives and sharp jabbing implements. There are also creative weapons such as this <a href="http://www.argoasecurity.com/product_detail.aspx?productID=319">self-defence cap</a>, these <a href="http://www.argoasecurity.com/product_detail.aspx?productID=317">steel knuckle gloves</a>, or this <a href="http://www.argoasecurity.com/product_detail.aspx?productID=321">key chain baton</a>.<br><br>
As you can imagine, this does not by any means exhaust the list of potential concealed weapons. Credit cards, for example, have been used as deadly weapons, as have writing pens, eyeglass frames, heavy belt buckles, and even concealed dental floss.<br><br>
If you do happen to have a concealed carry permit for firearms, and want to be stylish about it, <a href="http://artofmanliness.com/2012/09/26/guide-to-concealed-carry/">here is one gentlemen's guide to stylish concealed carry.</a><br><br>
You may wonder whether all of these weapons for personal defence are legal in your area. That is certainly a concern, so you will want to try to stay within the letter of the law as far as possible, while maintaining a safe margin of protection for yourself and your family. And if you develop good relationships with local law enforcement before the fact of a life-saving interaction, far fewer questions are likely to be asked afterward. Also, if it comes to that, you may ask yourself whether you would rather repent and pay penance, or rot underground. The choice is yours.<br><br>
Seriously, any type of law that makes it difficult for non-violent and non-aggressive individuals to protect themselves from violent and aggressive persons, is not necessarily the kind of law that should be adhered to -- or allowed to stand unchallenged.<br><br>
So think about it. If you take the survival of yourself and those you care about seriously, you may want to make a New Year's resolution to go out better prepared in the days ahead.<br><br>
<b>Note</b>: Weapons do not protect you without your help. If you choose to carry weapons, make sure that you are trained in how to use them safely and effectively.
<br><br>If you find yourself confronted by an armed mugger who seems mainly interested in your money, give him your money. Perhaps that will be the end of it. But there are tipoffs that may tell you that he will not be content with merely robbing you. Do not let an entirely natural emotional denial and wishful thinking prevent you from seeing the indicators that you are in a life and death struggle.<br><br>
It is best to avoid such situations in the first place, which is why it is a good idea to talk about them ahead of time. But sometimes crime happens to the best people, and if they are not mentally and physically prepared, they may die.
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-21092476295612633082012-12-31T00:32:00.000-08:002012-12-30T16:55:04.823-08:00Their Faith Was MisplacedMentally unbalanced attackers often release their rage upon groups of helpless victims such as schoolchildren, shoppers, or co-workers. Although half-mad with rage, these predators have enough wit to carry out their attacks within environments where they are unlikely to meet significant opposition in time to prevent them from carrying out their atrocities.
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<br /><center>Helpless Victims, Herded Together in Age-Matched Groups, Left Unprotected</center></div><br>
The recent mass killing in a Connecticut school reminds us of the innate helplessness of small children, in the face of a deadly threat. Small children themselves can not be expected to defend themselves against guns, knives, clubs, or other deadly weapons including strong adult hands and feet. These children and their parents assume that the little ones will be safe behind the walls of government schools -- so generously supported by US taxpayers.<br><br>
But their faith is sadly misplaced. Most schools are so called "gun free zones," which means that any miscreant who can devise a way to carry loaded guns onto school properties is guaranteed to have several minutes of carefree trigger time, unmolested by meaningful opposition -- at least until the police arrive.
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But some school districts have decided to toughen up, and make it more difficult for mentally deranged killers to have their bloody way with the children -- whether they are using guns, knives, swords, hammers, clubs, or baseball bats.<br>
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<blockquote>In Ohio, the Buckeye Firearms Foundation is swamped with 20 times more applications — from teachers and administrators to custodians and bus drivers -- than they have space for in a three-day tactical defense course to be offered this this spring.<br><br>
Jim Irvine, president of the Ohio foundation, said Thursday that the $1,000 per person Armed Teacher Training Program would be free for the 24 people selected from more than 400 applicants. "What better use for an educational foundation than to help educators protect our children," he said.<br><br>
...In Salt Lake City, Utah, shortly before their latest class was set to start, Clark Aposhian, chairman of the sponsoring Utah Shooting Sports Council, said they were expecting at least 200 people to attend.
<br><br>
They have trained about a dozen teachers a year. Utah has allowed teachers to carry concealed weapons on K-12 campuses for 12 years now and, said Aposhian, "We have never had any accidental or intentional shootings." He serves on the state board where any violation of concealed weapon laws would be reported.<br><br>
"Teachers are professionals. They will take appropriate measures to maintain a gun discreetly and safely," said Aposhian, a tactical firearm instructor. _<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/12/27/gun-classes-teachers-utah-ohio-shooting/1793773/">USAToday</a></blockquote>
There is a great deal of opposition to the idea of allowing teachers to have access to loaded weapons on school grounds. But such opposition is likely to be pushed back by the need to protect children with more than just high sounding words and hypocritical catch phrases.<br><br>
Several armed criminal attacks are aborted by bystanders carrying concealed weapons every year. One of the most famous massacres in US history -- <a href="http://misspistol.com/gun_blog/218/the-lubys-massacre-20-years-later/">the Luby's massacre in Texas 20 years ago before concealed carry was allowed</a> -- would have been curtailed with much less loss of life, if a young chiropractor eating in the cafeteria at the time had been allowed to carry her handgun.<br><br>
A recent shooting at a mall in Clackamas County outside Portland, Oregon, was cut short when <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/clackamascounty/index.ssf/2012/12/security_guard_said_he_had_rob.html">a bystander with a gun appeared to have frightened the shooter into killing himself</a>.<br><br>
Other would-be shooting sprees have been cut short by armed bystanders, before they reached the threshold of murder and mayhem in which the skankstream press appears to revel so gleefully. Clearly more such incidents would be aborted by armed bystanders if not for the fact that they typically take place in areas where it is illegal to carry firearms.<br><br>
<a href="http://concealedcampus.org/">Concealed Campus.org</a> is dedicated to promoting legal concealed carry on campus.<br><br>
Survival is not politically correct. Instead, what is politically correct is for presidents, senators, celebrities, academics, and journalists to use tragic deaths to trumpet their pet causes -- which would merely leave citizens even more helpless against deranged predators than they are at present.<br><br>
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-74825017617946287022012-12-29T09:30:00.000-08:002012-12-29T09:30:01.957-08:00Survival is Not Politically Correct -- It May Even Be Illegal
<b><i>Adapted from an article previously published on <a href="http://alfin2101.blogspot.com">Al Fin, the Next Level</a></i></b>
<br><br><br>
<blockquote>“The BBC offers this advice for anyone in Britain who is attacked on the street: You are permitted to protect yourself with a briefcase, a handbag, or keys. You should shout ‘Call the Police’ rather than ‘Help.’ Bystanders are not to help. They have been taught to leave such matters to the professionals. If you manage to knock your attacker down, you must not hit him again or you risk being charged with assault.” _<a href="http://www.theguntutor.com/2012/12/28/it-was-the-kitchen-knife-in-the-parlor-with-professor-plumb-or-was-it-professor-plum-in-the-parlor-with-the-kitchen-knife/">Gun Tutor</a></blockquote>
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Humans of the advanced world have entered a brave and dangerous new phase of existence. We are moving through a stage where it is <u>politically incorrect</u> -- and sometimes illegal -- to protect oneself and one's family in order to survive a growing range of threats which one is not supposed to be aware of, much less mention in polite company.<br />
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Nevertheless, if you want to play through to the next level, you must survive this phase of existence with enough resources and in good enough condition to proceed to the next phase.<br />
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For those who are raising children, this point cannot be made strongly enough. <u>Your children need to be raised to be dangerous. Competent, yes. Highly skilled, yes. Technologically savvy, yes. And very, very, dangerous.</u><br />
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But where do children go to learn skills of survival, teamwork, discipline in dangerous settings, calmness under fire, etc. in the modern hyper-feminised politically correct world? That is a very good question (but be careful where you ask it).<br />
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There is a national program in the US that is called <a href="http://www.youngmarines.com/aboutUs.html">the Young Marines</a>, which should give program designers some useful ideas. The Young Marines is open to boys and girls from the age of 8 all the way through the high school years. The organisation provides summer camp and a wide range of training programs, including community service.<br />
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Several ranks and awards are available throughout the course of training -- similar to the Boy Scouts' ranks and badges. Here is a list of skills and goals for the most basic level of Young Marines:
<br />
<blockquote>
<ul style="background-color: #006000; color: #a4a4a4; font-family: 'PT Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px;">
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Drill movements, including march, halt, fall-in and fall-out of ranks, positions of attention, parade rest, at ease and rest</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Execution of column movements, saluting, and facing movements</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Uniform regulations</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Grooming and personal appearance standards</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Rank structure of the Young Marines</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Military customs and courtesies</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Practicing Formation</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Young Marine history</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Military terms and jargon</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Outdoor tools safety</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Assembling survival kits</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Stove & lantern safety</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Constructing a shelter</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Knot tying</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Lighting fires</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Reading of maps</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Signs on topographical maps</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Orient a map without the use of a compass</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Introduction to the compass.</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Drug Resistance</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Basic elements of speech preparation</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Duties of both a team member and team leader</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Duties of a Young Marine Flag Bearer</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Duties of fire watch</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Responsibilities of US citizens</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">History of the US flag</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Components of physical fitness</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Developing personal physical fitness plans</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Tips on healthy eating</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">Basic first aid techniques</li>
<li style="background-image: url(http://eeym.org/wp-content/themes/streamline/images/sidebar-list.png); background-position: 0px 7px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px; word-wrap: break-word;">In order to proceed to Junior ranks, each Young Marine must perform 50 hours of community service</li>
</ul>
_<a href="http://eeym.org/young-marines/ranks/basic-rank-skills-goals/">Basic Rank Skills & Goals</a></blockquote>
</div><br>
<a href="http://eeym.org/young-marines/">Information on Ranks and Rank Advancement</a><br><br>
The Young Marines programs should be seen as idea generators for most parents, since such programs will not be available everywhere -- and will not necessarily be exactly what many parents are looking for regardless.<br><br>
But many children will learn important skills of survival, group cohesion and support, and self-discipline, when training with other children of various skills levels but with a generally unified intention to succeed and excel.<br><br>
The various curricula which we have discussed in connection with dangerous child training have had little to do with military tactical or strategic thought or training. And yet, a well-rounded dangerous child should know something about military tactics -- if only to understand how to avoid being caught up in a combat situation.<br><br>
For some communities that wish to establish a certain degree of independence from potentially dangerous and aggressive outside groups, a more intimate knowledge of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_unit_tactics">small unit tactics</a>, and <a href="http://inetres.com/gp/military/infantry/index.html">infantry weapons</a> may become important to acquire.<br><br>
Under the US constitution, the right of individuals and communities to organise militias and to bear arms is guaranteed in the second amendment. Up to this point, very few US communities and regions have taken advantage of their constitutional rights to organise such small fighting units.<br><br>
But as the US moves more deeply into its paradoxical and surreal world of politically correct denial in the face of growing and deadly threats inside the homeland itself, even a "conspiracy of silence" on the part of government, academia, and popular news media outlets will not stop a growing trend toward organised self-defense.<br><br>
It is never too late to have a dangerous childhood.<br><br>
<a href="http://www.shu.edu/offices/upload/FM-7-8.pdf">Basic small unit tactics (PDF)</a><br><br>
<a href="http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/2012/12/violence-in-real-world-coming-your-way.html">Out of control third world violence may be coming to a city near you</a>
<br><br>
<a href="http://alfin2200.blogspot.com/2012/12/interracial-violent-crime-festering.html">One of many potential threats</a><br><br>
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-1364784629187826162012-12-29T07:12:00.001-08:002012-12-29T07:16:16.971-08:00The Global Comeback of Slavery and Human Trafficking<b><i>Originally published on <a href="http://alfin2500.blogspot.com">Al Fin, You Sexy Thing!</a></i></b>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Popular destinations for victims of the slave trade are the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf. According to the head of the Tehran province judiciary, traffickers target girls between 13 and 17, although there are reports of some girls as young as 8 and 10, to send to Arab countries.</span> _<a href="http://www.uri.edu/artsci/wms/hughes/iran_sex_slave_trade">Mullahs Drive Child Sex Trade</a></blockquote>
<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/12/slaverys-global-comeback/266354/">Slavery is making a comeback in the modern world</a>, with more people enslaved around the globe at this time, than all the Africans ever transported overseas as slaves in the history of the African slave trade. Modern slavery is big, $billion business, and much of the trade focuses on the sexual use of children and teenaged girls.<br />
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Normally one might think of Bangkok or Manila in regard to child sex slavery, but there are a number of other countries where officials are turning a blind eye to the sex slave trafficking of children and women.<br />
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Take Islamic Iran, for example. The ruling mullahs of Iran not only tolerate a massive sex slave trade -- they participate in the buying and selling of young sex slaves for their own pleasure and profit.
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Given the totalitarian rule in Iran, most organized activities are known to the authorities. The exposure of sex slave networks in Iran has shown that many mullahs and officials are involved in the sexual exploitation and trade of women and girls. Women report that in order to have a judge approve a divorce they have to have sex with him. Women who are arrested for prostitution say they must have sex with the arresting officer. There are reports of police locating young women for sex for the wealthy and powerful mullahs.<br />
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One factor contributing to the increase in prostitution and the sex slave trade is the number of teen girls who are running away from home. The girls are rebelling against fundamentalist imposed restrictions on their freedom, domestic abuse, and parental drug addictions. Unfortunately, in their flight to freedom, the girls find more abuse and exploitation. Ninety percent of girls who run away from home will end up in prostitution.<br />
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In cities, shelters have been set-up to provide assistance for runaways. Officials who run these shelters are often corrupt; they run prostitution rings using the girls from the shelter. For example in Karaj, the former head of a Revolutionary Tribunal and seven other senior officials were arrested in connection with a prostitution ring that used 12 to 18 year old girls from a shelter called the Center of Islamic Orientation.
_<a href="http://www.uri.edu/artsci/wms/hughes/iran_sex_slave_trade">Donna M. Hughes</a>_via_<a href="http://www.fortliberty.org/the-iranian-sex-trade.html">Fort Liberty</a></blockquote>
A similar situation exists across many parts of Russia.<br />
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Statistics provided by Moscow police indicated that more than 70,000 victims of trafficking for prostitution are in Moscow, of which 80 per cent are underage children. 4 In 2007, 104 cases involving trafficking for sexual exploitation were investigated. 5 _<a href="http://ecpat.net/EI/Publications/Trafficking/Factsheet_Russia.pdf">Russia Trafficking Factsheet (PDF)</a></blockquote>
In Russia, child abuse is routine. Children are routinely abandoned by mothers, growing up in orphanages where they are used as sadistic targets of the psychotics who run the institutions.<br />
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According to various estimates, 50 to 95 percent of children who grow up in Russian orphanages become drug addicts or alcoholics or commit suicide. Russian orphanages essentially produce children who suffer from Mowgli Syndrome — that is, they are ill-equipped to function in any capacity in society.<br />
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...the dead bodies of girls 15 years old and younger were discovered in Nizhny Tagil in 2008. A prostitution ring had kidnapped the girls and murdered them when they refused to become prostitutes. In the end, not a single criminal charge was ever filed in the case. _<a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/child-abuse-in-russia-is-routine/473633.html">MoscowTimes</a></blockquote>
It is ironic that Russian president Putin recently signed a law forbidding US citizens from adopting Russian orphans, as well as forbidding US charitable organisations and NGOs from operating inside Russia.<br />
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India is another country that seems to be a destination for sex traffickers:
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White skin is "in demand" in the flesh trade where customers pay thousands of rupees to procure sex workers from Russia and the countries of the former Soviet Union and South-East Asian countries like Thailand.<br />
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The prostitution racket run through the internet is much more complex than the conventional pimp-sex worker deal and is proving to be beyond the capacity of Goa Police to crack who admit unofficially that is near-impossible to track down the masterminds. The girls trafficked into Goa to have sex with paying customers are referred to in the trade as "Russian Girls" but are usually from the lesser known countries surrounding Russia. _<a href="http://oheraldo.in/News/Main%20Page%20News/Foreigners-running-Goa-rsquo-s-high-end-sex-trade-online/68590.html">Goa Sex Trade</a></blockquote>
</div>al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13415402.post-42413582692567691462012-12-28T00:17:00.000-08:002012-12-28T00:17:00.279-08:00Escape from High School Hell? A Hogwarts for Brainiacs<blockquote>Davidson Academy looks a lot like a typical high school. It’s only when the students open their mouths that you realize that this is an exceptional place, a sort of Hogwarts for brainiacs. As these math whizzes, musical prodigies and chess masters pass in the hallway, the banter flies in witty bursts. Inside humanities classes, discussions spin into intellectual duels. _<a href="http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-02/boy-who-played-fusion?page=all">PS</a></blockquote>
It does not take a brainiac to understand that something has gone very wrong with US public education. But no one seems to know what to do to remedy a broken down and corrupt system of mis-education and fraudulent misuse of public funds.
<blockquote>Like interchangeable parts in an industrial machine, students [are] treated alike, regardless of their individual characteristics and needs. Square peg, meet round hole.
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Putting kids together and sorting by age [creates] that dysfunctional creature, the “teenager.” <u>Once [long ago,] teen-agers weren’t so much a demographic as adults-in-training. They worked, did farm chores, watched children and generally functioned in the real world. They got status and recognition for doing these things well, and they got shame and disapproval for doing them badly.</u><br><br>
But <b><i>once they were segregated by age in public schools, teens looked to their peers for status and recognition instead of to society at large. As Thomas Hine writes in The American Heritage, “Young people became teenagers because we had nothing better for them to do. We began seeing them not as productive but as gullible consumers.” </i></b>_<a href="http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/really_alternative_schools_rising_HascMnqpRYZNzX5C4Mp9DP">NYP</a></blockquote>What we got from shutting away students by age was what is called by greedy corporate marketers, "the youth culture" or "the youth demographic." Thanks to public schools, the teen years are a breeding ground for delinquency, crime, bullying, drug abuse, shallowness, dark nihilistic sub-cultures -- almost anything except a healthy transition into adulthood.<br><br>
So what about this mysterious "Hogwarts for Brainiacs?" And are there other similar places for youth to escape high school holding cells for more productive endeavours?<br>
<blockquote>A rational society would know what to do with a kid like Taylor Wilson, especially now that America’s technical leadership is slipping and scientific talent increasingly has to be imported. But by the time Taylor was 12, both he and his brother, Joey, who is three years younger and gifted in mathematics, had moved far beyond their school’s (and parents’) ability to meaningfully teach them. Both boys were spending most of their school days on autopilot, their minds wandering away from course work they’d long outgrown.<br><br>
...only 10 individuals had managed to build working fusion reactors. Taylor contacted one of them, Carl Willis, then a 26-year-old Ph.D. candidate living in Albuquerque, and the two hit it off. But Willis, like the other successful fusioneers, had an advanced degree and access to a high-tech lab and precision equipment. How could a middle-school kid living on the Texas/Arkansas border ever hope to make his own star?<br><br>
...The Davidson Academy is a subsidized public school for the nation’s smartest and most motivated students, those who score in the top 99.9th percentile on standardized tests. The school, which allows students to pursue advanced research at the adjacent University of Nevada–Reno, was founded in 2006 by software entrepreneurs Janice and Robert Davidson. Since then, the Davidsons have championed the idea that the most underserved students in the country are those at the top.<br><br>
On the family’s first trip to Reno, even before Taylor and Joey were accepted to the academy, Taylor made an appointment with Friedwardt Winterberg, a celebrated physicist at the University of Nevada who had studied under the Nobel Prize–winning quantum theorist Werner Heisenberg. When Taylor told Winterberg that he wanted to build a fusion reactor, also called a fusor, the notoriously cranky professor erupted: “You’re 13 years old! And you want to play with tens of thousands of electron volts and deadly x-rays?” Such a project would be far too technically challenging and hazardous, Winterberg insisted, even for most doctoral candidates. “First you must master calculus, the language of science,” he boomed. “After that,” Tiffany said, “we didn’t think it would go anywhere. Kenneth and I were a bit relieved.”
_<a href="http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-02/boy-who-played-fusion?page=all">PS</a></blockquote>And so it began for young brainiac Taylor, at The Davidson Academy in Reno, Nevada. Read more about Taylor's adventures in nuclear fusion at the Brainiac Hogwarts, in the story linked above.<br><br>
As the founders of The Davidson Academy point out, "the most underserved students in the country are those at the top." This is particularly true if those at the top happen to be boys.<br><br>
Every society (except for intentionally stagnant dictatorships like North Korea) needs its most talented young minds. But under a regime of political correctness, the bright and the exceptional are typically neglected or even stunted and abused by an overly regimented system.<br><br>
It might even surprise you to know that <a href="http://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/education/item/14036-obama-bribes-states-to-adopt-national-education-curriculum">billionaire Bill Gates has joined Barack Obama to become part of the problem, rather than part of the solution.</a> Ratcheting up regimentation and central control over school systems is the last thing one would expect from someone commonly seen as a benevolent philanthropist. And yet instead of creating mind-stretching alternatives to the government's concentration camp approach to education, Bill Gates appears to be in league with uber-ideologue Barack Obama in priming all US schools for future programs in mass indoctrination.<br><br>
It is a sad thing to see, indeed.<br><br>
But it is unlikely that the underground trend toward <a href="http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/really_alternative_schools_rising_HascMnqpRYZNzX5C4Mp9DP">alternative schooling</a> is ready to lay down and die, simply because dumbed down US voters allowed the re-selection of a narcissistic national administrator of fanatical tendencies toward central control of everything.<br><br>
In the race to the development of powerful decentralised tools of disruptive technologies, the greater the number of approaches and the larger the number of centres of innovation, the better.<br><br>
When small groups of individuals are capable of providing for themselves virtually all of the goods and services which their governments claim to provide for them, the need for those governments becomes much less clear.<br><br>
al finhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13739269791915017382noreply@blogger.com4