A Nobel Prize Physicist Questions the Climate Dogma

Robert B. Laughlin Nobel Prize Physics 1998Climate science is not a deep mystery that is only open to a few persons who have devoted their lifetimes to the topic. To understand climate science one must use the same type of reasoning, and the same type of tools, which scientists and technological / technical investigators in dozens of fields routinely utilise. Far from being glowing untouchables, climate scientists are justly vulnerable to a wide range of criticisms and judgments from persons with a wide range of backgrounds.

Here is one critical look at modern climate science by a 1998 Nobel Prize winner in Physics, Robert B. Laughlin:

Earth scientists tend to be ultraconservative when it comes to the future, presumably because the scientific ethic forbids mixing speculation with fact, and go to extraordinary lengths to prove by means of measurement that the globe is warming now, the ocean is acidifying now, fossil fuel is being exhausted now, and so forth, even though these things are self-evident in geologic time. The unhappy result is more and more data but less and less understanding—a common problem in science but an especially acute problem in climatology. In such situations it’s essential to weigh facts more strongly if they are simple, and use this practice to sweep away confusion whenever you can.

The sea’s immense capacity to store carbon dioxide is one of the simple things with which you can reliably orient yourself. It’s a junior-high-school science-fair project. Leave a glass of distilled water on the counter overnight, and by the next morning it will have become slightly acid, due to the absorption of carbon dioxide from the air. It hasn’t absorbed much—about the amount stored in an equal volume of air—so this effect alone will not sequester much carbon. But drop a piece of limestone in the water, thereby emulating the presence of carbonate rocks at the bottom of the sea, and you will find the next morning that the water becomes slightly alkaline, and the amount of carbon dissolved in the water is now 60 times greater than it was before. After tinkering a bit to figure out where this carbon came from, you eventually discover that half came from the limestone and half came from the air. It all has to do with the marvelous (and elementary) chemistry of bicarbonate salts. You also find that the alkalinity of the water matches that of seawater, as does the carbon dioxide carrying capacity. Thus we learn that the oceans have dissolved in them, in the form of bicarbonate ion, 40 times more carbon than the atmosphere contains, a total of 30 trillion tons, or 30 times the world’s coal reserves.

...A local beach a short drive from my home is backed by cliffs about 100 feet high that expose alternating layers of sandstone, mudstone, and aggregate, perhaps seven layers in all. You can tell without having attended a single geology class that these layers were formed by the action of water, the most likely candidate being the nearby ocean, especially in light of the fossilized clamshells entombed in some of the layers. Yet there they are high and dry, integrated into the rolling hills beyond, as though they were the sliced edge of a huge layer cake.

...The continents have moved up and down over the course of geologic time a greater distance than the sea is deep. We know this because the total thickness of sedimentary rock in some places exceeds four kilometers... now the oceans have been thoroughly surveyed, and oil technologies such as echo stratigraphy and deep drilling routinely find sedimentary rock layers 10 to 15 kilometers thick. The most sensational example of such thicknesses is the Grand Canyon, which required a three-kilometer uplift from sea level to be cut by the Colorado River, and which forms, together with Utah’s Escalante Staircase, a total sedimentary mass 10 kilometers thick.

...The geologic record as we know it thus suggests that climate is a profoundly grander thing than energy. Energy procurement is a matter of engineering and keeping the lights on under circumstances that are likely to get more difficult as time progresses. Climate change, by contrast, is a matter of geologic time, something that the earth routinely does on its own without asking anyone’s permission or explaining itself. The earth doesn’t include the potentially catastrophic effects on civilization in its planning. Far from being responsible for damaging the earth’s climate, civilization might not be able to forestall any of these terrible changes once the earth has decided to make them. Were the earth determined to freeze Canada again, for example, it’s difficult to imagine doing anything except selling your real estate in Canada. If it decides to melt Greenland, it might be best to unload your property in Bangladesh. The geologic record suggests that climate ought not to concern us too much when we’re gazing into the energy future, not because it’s unimportant, but because it’s beyond our power to control. _AmericanScholar_via_ClimateDepot

The scandal emanating from the University of East Anglia's Hadley Climate Research Unit -- popularly referred to as "ClimateGate" -- should have disabused more intelligent observers of any delusions they may have held about the honesty, scrupulousness, good faith, or scientific openness and integrity of several individuals high in the IPCC scientific hierarchy.

The IPCC and its inner circle have used just about every dirty trick and dishonest device known to journalism, public relations, and propaganda. See "AmazonGate" for another example. The orthodoxy of climate catastrophe has all the markings of a quasi-criminal scam. All you need to do once you wise up to that fact, is to "follow the money." Who is racking up frequent flier miles and big martini and massage expense accounts, writing jet exhaust on the atmosphere the entire world around? Who stands to gain from the $mega-billion cap and trade scams being pushed by most European countries and Obama Pelosi? Not a pretty picture.

If you believe in "climate change" (isn't the climate ALWAYS changing?), you may want to clear the cobwebs of that part of your brain and begin to exercise your own judgment -- rather than letting the sleazes and scam artists do it for you.

More: Here is a look at the environmental devastation that is being caused by climate hysterics such as the IPCC and those who take them seriously. h/t Climate Depot

An Update on Small Modular Fission Reactors

What is the need?
Most of the world's electrical grids are small. One single source of power generation should not exceed 10-15% of the grid size or risk stability and power concerns when the one large plant goes offline. The "standard" reactor produces 1 to 1.6 GWe and cost and estimated $5B+ and 84 months to build.

There is a an application for small modular reactors that can be built quickly and delivered onsite with fuel intact and ready to go. The small size could be used for power or for desalination. Most designs are modular in that you can add more than one to increase output slowly as needed. Construction of the "standard" reactor includes large forgings and significant resources for movement and construction of the large components. Small reactors are mostly skid built at the factory and shipped in using existing US or small factory construction and forging capabilities. _PowerIndustryTrends

New nuclear power construction has been essentially stalled for the past few decades in the western world, as faux environmental activists and their political connections have seized control of the energy future -- and thus the destiny -- of western societies.

Small modular reactors (SMRs) are one answer to the failure of industry and governments to get past the faux environmental blockade in order to confront the impending critical shortage of electrical power in several parts of the world. SMRs can be used as "anchors" for a more resilient power grid that is capable of separating into dozens of smaller grids when confronted by a threat of cascading failure from an EMP attack, a solar storm, or a concerted hacker attack from China, Russia, or other hostile nation.

SMRs can also power remote off-grid military or scientific stations, remote towns and island populations, large seasteads and other extreme colonies, and large survivalist settlements -- not to mention space colonies and lunar settlements/stations.

This update on progress in SMRs comes from the blog Power Industry Trends, by way of NextBigFuture.

The players:  

Nuscale
-Small modular reactor currently rated at 45MWe with up to 24 units at single location (1080MWe)
-36 months from first concrete to power

-Passive cooling systems using natural circulation
-Proven LWR design which should provide faster regulatory review as it is not novel technology
-24 month refueling cycle
-500 tons as shipped via barge, truck or train, forged and fabbed at any mid-size facility
-Estimated cost advantages due to: simplicity, modular design, volume manufacturing and shorter construction times
-Filing with NRC for design certification in Q2 2012. NuScale expects the first nuclear facility will be operational sometime in 2018.
Data from Nuscale website

B&W mPower
-125 MWe to 750 MWe or more for a 4.5-year operating cycle without refueling
-Proven ALWR design which will reduce regulatory review time
-Design Certification submittal in 2011
-Letter of intent recieved from Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) to begin the process of evaluating a potential lead plant site
Data and picture from B&W website

IRIS (International Reactor Innovative and Secure)
-Westinghouse 335MWe LWR scalable to 100MWe
-Developed by an international consortium led by Westinghouse including 21 organizations from 10 countries
-Design Certification submittal in Q3 2012
-Up to 4 year refueling cycle
Data from Westinghouse website and NRC

ARC-100 Advanced Reactor Concepts
-Sodium-cooled, metal fueled, fast-reactor currently rated at 50-100MWe
-Sodium Cooled primary to super critical CO2 secondary Brayton Cycle
-Based on technology proven by over 30 years of successful operation of EBR II, an experimental program operated by the U.S. government
-20 year (yes year) refueling cycle
-Proliferation proof fuel system
-10 acre footprint and less than 24 months construction time
-Target cost of $0.05 per KWh for electricity production
-Initial discussions with NRC, but no date for design certification submittal
Data from Advance Reactor Concepts website


Hyperion Power Module (HPM) or Mini Power Reactor (MPR)
-Formerly the Comstar reactor invented by Dr. Otis "Pete"' Peterson at the United States' famed Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico. Through the commercialization program at LANL’s Technology Transfer Division, HPG was awarded the exclusive license
-Each liquid metal PbBi cooled HPM-based electric plant generates 25MWe  and can be configured for steam only, co-generation, or electricity only.  Two or more modules can be "teamed" together.
-$50 million for one 25Mwe module 
-Fits into a standard fuel transport container, Transported via ship, rail, or truck. Total mass < 20 metric tons 
-Produces power for 8-10 years and entire reactor module is replaced
-Expect design certification submittal to NRC within a year
-150 purchase commitments from customers such as mining and telecom companies, provided its technology gets licensed for operation 
-Meets all the non-proliferation criteria of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP)  as the entire module is fueled and sealed in the factory and returned to the factory once expended.
-Alternate Energy Holdings Inc (AEHI) has signed a MoU with Hyperion Power Generation Inc of New Mexico which the companies have described as "the beginning of a joint venture" to build and market Hyperion's modular reactors around the world 
Data from Hyperion website 
 

PRISM-GE-Hitachi
 -Power Reactor Innovative Small Module or PRISM
-Liquid sodium cooled 311 MWe design
-use recycled spent nuclear fuel instead of creating new fuel
 -12-24 month refueling cycle
-NRC Combined Operating License submittal in Q1 2012
-NRC staff conducted pre-application review in early 1990s that resulted in the publication of NUREG-1368, "Preapplication Safety Evaluation Report for the Power Reactor Innovative Small Module (PRISM) Liquid-Metal Reactor (January 1994)."
Data from NRC website 


SMART (System Integrated Modular Advanced ReacTor)-KINS
-South Korean 100MWe molten salt reactor
-A consortium of 13 South Korean companies led by Korea Electric Power Co (Kepco) has agreed to invest 100 billion won (about $83 million) in the development of the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (Kaeri) Smart reactor
-36 month refueling cycle
-Intend to license design by 2012
Data found here, Korean main link is broken

Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)
-165 MWe Helium cooled design by PBMR, LTD
-Online refueling capability
-NRC Design Certification submittal in 2013
-Modular, gas-cooled, pebble bed reactor with online refueling that generates electricity via a gas or steam turbine and which may also be used for process heat applications.
-Licensing of a demonstration plant in South Africa is being reconsidered. Agreement with Chinese for cooperation in development
 Data from PBMR website

Toshiba 4S (Super-Safe, Small, and simple)
-10MWe liquid metal (sodium) design
-30 year refueling cycle
-NRC Design Approval submittal in Q2 2012
-apply later this year for U.S. approval to test the unit in the village of Galena in central Alaska,
 Data from NRC website 

Terrapower
 -Uses depleted uranium packed inside hexagonal pillars. The uranium is bred into plutonium, which undergoes fission, in a wave that moves through the core at only one centimetre per year as the wave moves from one end of the reactor to the other.
-U-238 is bred progressively into Pu-239, which is the actual fuel and undergoes fission. The reaction requires a small amount of enriched uranium to get started and could run for decades without refueling. However it is a low-density core and needs to be relatively large.

-Liquid sodium coolant
-Seeking to outsource the design for others to construct.  Currently in discussion with Toshiba.
Data from Intellectual Ventures website_PowerIndustryTrends

More information at the Power Industry Trends blog.
US Power Utility Companies Taking Closer Look at SMRs

Don't miss the 10th Carnival of Nuclear Energy at NextBigFuture

Crude Oil Has Already Peaked!

...crude oil itself has already peaked – at least five times since 1950, Prof. Boyce says – without beginning to approach the demise of oil anticipated by peak oil theory’s famous Bell curve. Indeed, crude oil reserves have doubled roughly every 15 years since 1850 and the world now has more proven reserves than it has ever had in the ensuing 150 years. _CTV

Crude oil may just peak a few more times before humans discard oil in favour of better sources of energy. Oil production is responsive to price signals, although oil producers will watch the price curves closely, to be sure that a rise in prices will last long enough to justify a ramp-up in production. The ephemeral rise in oil prices in the summer of 2008 clearly did not last long enough to justify a full-scale build-up in production.

THERE is only one rule when it comes to the availability of oil: experts are always convinced it will run out – but it never seems to. Brent crude is now at close to $75 a barrel, which is high but hardly excessively so by historical standards....

But one thing is clear: the peak oil theorists, who constantly predict that prices are about to explode, keep on getting it wrong but are never sufficiently held to account by a gullible media. As Mark Perry, a professor at the University of Michigan, reminds us, it was five years ago that Houston-based Matthew Simmons (a leading peak oil man) and the unusually sensible New York Times columnist John Tierney bet $5,000 on the price of oil. The wager was based on the average daily price for 2010, adjusted for inflation. If the inflation-adjusted oil price averages $200 or more, Simmons wins $10,000, and if the average price this year is less than $200, Tierney wins. As Perry points out, average oil prices this year won't even be anywhere close to $100, and will probably average less than $70, far below the $200 price predicted by Simmons. Only a total catastrophe would ensure the price would average $330 per barrel for the rest of 2010 – which is what would be needed for Simmons to win his bet. He will have to hand the cash over and eat humble pie. _CityAM

Matt Simmons is just one of the grifters who has latched on to the gullible mass of believers in Peak Oil Doom. Losing $5,000 in a bet is unlikely to discourage Matt, since he probably cons a lot more than that from his credulous disciples every week.

If you are a doomer, you have to ask yourself the question: "If I am wrong about this doom business, how much am I hurting myself, my family, and our future prospects for happiness and prosperity?" Most doomers just get off on the doom, and don't really care about the opportunity costs. Some of them want to starve the world of energy, so that the human population will be reduced by 50% to 90% from its current numbers (the "dieoff"). But there are likely to be some doomers who eventually get tired of the echo choirs, the genocidal undertones, and the role-playing.

The notion that the world is approaching "Peak Oil" is just not supported by the facts. We may still be getting closer to a peak, but the world has far more untapped oil than anyone could have imagined 10 years ago. _StreetAuthority

There is nothing new about the idea of an energy crisis. Back in Elizabethan times, England suffered from "peak wood." There have been peaks in production -- multiple peaks -- for anything that humans have ever used for energy. More peaks will certainly come and go. But the only form of "peak energy" that could be semi-permanent, is the type of "peak energy" that has come to North Korea -- "political peak energy."

In America, insightful persons might well ask: "Who needs peak oil when we've got Obama Pelosi?" They are referring to the energy starvation policies of the Obama Pelosi regime, which intends to bankrupt coal and oil companies -- and would like to do the same to gas and nuclear companies, if they could devise the proper excuse.

Energy is the life's blood of an advanced society. Persons who intentionally set about to disrupt or shut down a society's energy supply, are essentially committing genocide. Voters should consider that when they go to the polls.

From an earlier post at Al Fin Energy

Praying for Doom: A Compulsion for Peak Oil

Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth and WWF, spend hundreds of millions of dollars a year and doom is their best fund-raiser. Where is the news media's interest in checking out how pessimists' predictions panned out before? There is none. By my count, Lester Brown has now predicted a turning point in the rise of agricultural yields six times since 1974, and been wrong each time. Paul Ehrlich has been predicting mass starvation and mass cancer for 40 years. He still predicts that `the world is coming to a turning point'. _MattRidley

We are living through the last days of Earth. We have always been living through the last days of Earth, ever since humans grew brains big enough to wonder about their own existence. Every age has had its own variety of doom, and the end of the world.

Modern varieties of doom include Peak Oil Doom, Global Warming Doom, Overpopulation Doom, and so on. Here is some background on peak oil:

“I take this opportunity to express my opinion in the strongest terms, that the amazing exhibition of oil which has characterized the last twenty, and will probably characterize the next ten or twenty years, is nevertheless, not only geologically but historically, a temporary and vanishing phenomenon – one which young men will live to see come to its natural end” (1886, J.P. Lesley, state geologist of Pennsylvania).
“There is little or no chance for more oil in California” (1886, U.S. Geological Survey).
“There is little or no chance for more oil in Kansas and Texas” (1891, U.S. Geological Survey).
“Total future production limit of 5.7 billion barrels of oil, perhaps a ten-year supply” (1914, U.S. Bureau of Mines).
“Reserves to last only thirteen years” (1939, Department of the Interior).
“Reserves to last thirteen years” (1951, Department of the Interior, Oil and Gas Division).
“We could use up all of the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade” (President Jimmy Carter speaking in 1978 to the entire world).
“At the present rate of use, it is estimated that coal reserves will last 200 more years. Petroleum may run out in 20 to 30 years, and natural gas may last only another 70 years” (Ralph M. Feather, Merrill textbook Science Connections Annotated Teacher’s Version, 1990, p. 493).
“At the current rate of consumption, some scientists estimate that the world’s known supplies of oil … will be used up within your lifetime” (1993, The United States and its People).
“The supply of fossil fuels is being used up at an alarming rate. Governments must help save our fossil fuel supply by passing laws limiting their use” (Merrill/Glenco textbook, Biology, An Everyday Experience, 1992).
...
Quotes like these could fill a thousand pages easily. _PeakOil?

Clearly, we are -- and always have been -- running out of oil. But then again, we are always finding more oil and discovering other things which can be substituted for oil -- when the need arises.

“No matter how closely it is defined, the physical quantity of a resource in the earth is not fully known at any time, because resources are sought and found only as they are needed. Even if the quantities of a particular resource were exactly known, such measurements would not be meaningful, because humans have a near-limitless capacity for developing additional ways to meet our needs: developing fiber optics, for instance, instead of copper wire …” _Julian Simon_quoted in PeakOil?

Why are beliefs in human-caused doom so prevalent in the western world? Perhaps "apocalypse" is simply programmed into the western mind. It is more than possible that there is a bit of doomer in all of us. Some of us simply allow our "inner doomer" to run away with us. Certainly a large proportion of western society has become caught up in the doomer spirit, reluctant to let go of the horsemen of the apocalypse.

Many of these runaway doomers are also active in movements to block the development of fossil fuels resources. As if afraid that their visions of doom may not prove out on their own, they step in to actively bring these prophecies of scarcity to depletion through political means.

Those who block oil and natural gas development here in the United States and elsewhere only make it much more difficult to meet the demand for oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. Indeed, it is not surprising that some of the end-of-oil advocates are the same people who oppose oil and natural gas development everywhere. _Goliath (subscription)

Belief in "peak oil" is usually quite confused. The underlying idea is that oil production follows something of a "bell curve". Believers in peak oil assume that this curve is true for individual wells, entire oil fields and deposits, for collections of deposits, for national oil fields, and for all the oil fields on the planet.

This "peak theory" fails to make allowances for unforeseen variations in either demand or supply, production or reserves. For example, if demand should fall significantly due to improved efficiencies or due to demand destruction, the nice clean shape of the peak curve is distorted. Likewise, should production be hampered by political upheaval or by corrupt administration and underinvestment -- or if producers simply "hold back" on production for any reason -- the curve cannot help but be shifted due to the fact that a great deal more oil is left underground for future exploitation. And certainly if significant improvements are made in the technology of exploration or production, the sacred curve will be man-handled once again.

As exploration and production technologies improve, "proven reserves" will necessarily grow.

Thanks to new technologies, additional oil can now be recovered from the apparently exhausted reserves. Specifically, the peaking and declining of oil from an existing well is not the same as the peaking and declining of oil from the respective oil field or reservoir. While oil production from an existing well is bound to peak and then slow down, “offset wells” can be drilled later into the same field or reservoir to produce more oil. _CounterPunch

One interesting example of a big oil find in the midst of "an exhausted field" occurred in Kern County, California.

Kern River Oil Field was discovered in 1899, and initially it was thought that only 10 percent of its heavy, viscous crude could be recovered. In 1942, after more than four decades of modest production, the field was estimated to still hold 54 million barrels of recoverable oil. As pointed out in 1995 by Morris Adelman, professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the few remaining energy gurus, “in the next forty-four years, it produced not 54 million barrels but 736 million barrels, and it had another 970 million barrels remaining.” But even this estimate was wrong. In November 2007 U.S. oil giant Chevron announced that cumulative production had reached two billion barrels. Today, Kern River still puts out more than 80,000 barrels per day, and Chevron reckons that the remaining reserves are about 480 million barrels. _SciAm

"Proven Reserves" are those that can be produced "economically." But the definitions of economical production are constantly changing, as the technology (and the politics eg, Iraq) changes.

And then there are the "unconventionals," such as heavy oils, oil sands, oil shales, coal to liquids, gas to liquids, and biomass to liquids. A doomer will not even stoop to discuss this 50 ton gorilla in the room, but any good economist would be forced to consider them.

The cost of oil comes down to the cost of finding, and then lifting or extracting. First, you have to decide where to dig. Exploration costs currently run under $3 per barrel in much of the Mideast, and below $7 for oil hidden deep under the ocean. But these costs have been falling, not rising, because imaging technology that lets geologists peer through miles of water and rock improves faster than supplies recede. Many lower-grade deposits require no new looking at all.

To pick just one example among many, finding costs are essentially zero for the 3.5 trillion barrels of oil that soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Yes, that’s trillion – over a century’s worth of global supply, at the current 30-billion-barrel-a-year rate of consumption. _WallStreetJournal Jan 2005_quoted by_PeakOil?

I do not want to talk you out of your beliefs in doom, if that is what you wish to believe. I merely point out that you have a choice. A rational examination of the facts does not force you to cling to doomerism. Such clinging is a question of your inner motivations. We do not wish to go into those motivations at this time.

As we plan for our energy future, we also cannot afford to ignore the lessons of recent history. In the early 1970s, many energy policymakers were sure that oil and natural gas would soon be exhausted, and government policy was explicitly aimed at "guiding" the market in a smooth transition away from these fuels to new, more sustainable alternatives. Price controls, allocation schemes, limitations on natural gas, massive subsidies to synthetic fuels, and other measures were funded heavily and implemented.

Unfortunately, the key premises on which these programs were based, namely that oil was nearing exhaustion and that government guidance was desirable to safely transition to new energy sources, are now recognized as having been clearly wrong--and to have resulted in enormously expensive mistakes.

Looking into the distant future, there will be a day when oil is no longer the world's dominant energy source. We can only speculate as to when and how that day will come about. _Goliath (subscription)

Cross-posted to Al Fin Energy

Sealing Cap Holds, Relief Wells Resume Drilling

NOAA (al.com)There is no oil leaking at the seafloor, no gas or oil being flamed at the surface since the well was shut in by the new sealing cap. Relief wells are drilling again -- the final solution to killing the well. Pressure at the Macondo well head remains steady -- slightly above the 6700 psi reported by BP yesterday. BP officials are watching pressure readings closely. If pressure begins falling, it will indicate a leak somewhere in the total well system, which would require BP to re-open the well and resume containment measures to surface vessels.

Officials have said a high pressure reading, of between 8,000 and 9,000 pounds per square inch, would indicate the well was completely intact. A reading below 6,000 pounds per square inch would show it was damaged and oil was escaping through fissures.

Saturday morning, pressure inside the well was at about 6,745 pounds per square inch, slightly above readings taken Friday, Wells said. Pressure was building at about 2 pounds per square inch per hour and has been beginning to slow, he said.

Wells said oil company engineers predicted the pressure would top out at about 6,800 pounds per square inch.

"We're feeling more comfortable that we have integrity," Wells said. "The fact that the pressure's continuing to rise and is giving us more confidence."

Pressure inside the well may be lower than initially expected because of the oil that has already leaked out, he said.

While officials are optimistic about the integrity of the well, tests may continue before they officially declare that the shut in procedure has worked, Wells said. Officials initially planned 48 hours of testing at the well, which would have concluded this afternoon.

"The test was set up to be a 48 hour test, but always with the provision that under certain circumstances it could be extended," Wells said. "It doesn't mean we need to immediately make a decision that we're going to shut in for an extended period of time." _NOLA

Kent Wells, a BP PLC vice president, said on a Saturday morning conference call there were no signs any new leaks had sprung in the well since the cap choked the flow of oil Thursday.
Wells said there has been no decision yet on whether they will reopen the cap and let oil back into the water when the test period ends later Saturday.
Wells said pressure inside the cap was slightly above the last level they announced late Friday. Rising pressure is a good sign, and falling pressure would indicate a new leak. _AP

Oil slicks have moved further offshore, although some tar balls have come ashore at some Gulf beaches and shorelines.

Tests of the giant tanker-skimmer "A Whale" have failed to show significant advantages to its use in the cleanup efforts. A number of other inventive solutions to skimming and cleaning up the oil slicks have also proven less than ideal.

As long as the oil is prevented from leaking into the Gulf of Mexico, surface cleanup can take on a more definitive shape.

Utah Woman to Rent Half of Duplex Uterus

What is... uterus didelphys?

In a female fetus, the uterus starts out as two small tubes. As the fetus develops, the tubes normally join to create one larger, hollow organ - the uterus. Sometimes, however, the tubes don't join completely. Instead, each one develops into a separate cavity. This condition is called uterus didelphys or double uterus. Double uterus is rare - and sometimes not even diagnosed. According to one estimate, uterine abnormalities occur in as many as 4 percent of women who have normal pregnancies, and of these women, about 5 percent have a double uterus. -Mayo Clinic

In the US mountain west state of Utah, lives a 36 year old woman who was born with a duplex uterus, or uterus didelphys. Since both her left and her right uteri are perfectly functional, she is able to conceive children in several ways: In just the left or just the right uterus, or in both uteri at once.

She is happily married, and until now has devoted both of her uteri to bearing children to just her husband. But as the Obama Depression deepens, she has decided to rent out half her uterus to earn extra cash for the family.

"It's either that, or we have to move out of our beautiful Provo home," she said. How does her husband feel about her decision? "Well, he's not really thrilled about it," she says, "but we can use the money."

When questioned, the woman admitted that indeed she is currently pregnant in both uteri. She confessed that only one of the children is her husband's. Which one?

"Well, my husband is really conservative, so I've reserved my right uterus to him. The left uterus is going to be the money-maker."

How does she control which uterus will bear which man's child? "Okay, well, if I want to get the right uterus pregnant, I just lie on my right side for a half hour after intercourse with my husband. If I want to get the left one pregnant...er, I just make sure I'm already pregnant with my husband's baby in my right uterus first -- and then, I also lie on my left side for about 8 hours after intercourse."

Here is an excerpt from a news release about this unusual situation:

A Utah woman is pregnant with two babies. It wouldn't be that unusual, except that these babies aren't twins. Hard to believe?....[Not for the mother. She planned it that way.]

[The woman's] first ultrasound revealed something shocking to...her doctor.

"[The mother] and I both had the look of surprise," said [the woman's doctor], with [Provo] OB/GYN in [Provo]. [The mother was actually faking her surprise.]

What they saw were two separate babies at slightly different stages of development.

"[My doctor said] I'm five weeks and four days in one, and six weeks and one day in the other," [the woman] said.

She knew she was born with the rare condition called didelphys, meaning two uteruses. It was never an issue in her other pregnancies, but this time she conceived in both....

...[the woman] had to break the news to her husband....Though just 20 weeks along now, the babies are already creating a buzz for the family..."As far as setting up bleachers and selling tickets, we are not anticipating that, though," [the doctor] said. _KSL.com_via_Impactlab

Half of the woman's OB expenses are being paid by the anonymous sperm donour, but she will receive an extremely generous payment when the delivered infant is handed over to the biological father and his family.

"I know that a lot of people frown on this kind of thing, but I figure that I was given this gift, so I may as well make the most of it. I mean, someday we will have artificial uteruses, and people will pay to have their babies incubated in them. What I am doing is not so different from that."

Author's note: The story you have read is only partly true. The names of the real people in the story have been obscured, and the photograph has been changed so as not to misrepresent actual individuals. The story as written here has very little to do with them. That is why it is labeled "plagiaristic satire." Someday Al Fin may get in big trouble for letting me publish this kind of story here.

Will the Obama Depression Last at Least 10 More Years?

"We don't have too many engines of growth functioning right now -- housing, consumer spending, exports are all sputtering. I have a hard time seeing where we can get 3% economic growth back." _CNN

It's becoming obvious that instead of solving the economic problems he inherited, Obama is making everything worse.

The risk of a double-dip recession is getting a lot of attention, but even that grim prediction could prove a little too optimistic.

Disappointing job reports, weakness in housing and consumer spending and problems in world financial markets have raised concerns about the U.S. economy stalling out later this year. Now some economists are starting to talk about an even worse fate: a prolonged period of very weak growth, a so-called "lost decade."

...A lost decade, or something like it, could feel like a never-ending recession to many Americans, as the economy does not grow fast enough to recoup lost jobs, and investments like homes and stocks continue to lose value. _CNN

When Obama Pelosi decided to declare war on America's middle class, it triggered a series of unreported collapses that severely reduced the chances of economic recovery.

Part of this problem lies with the party’s base, which the urban historian Fred Siegel once labeled “the coalition of the overeducated and the undereducated.” Major urban centers like New York, Chicago and San Francisco might advertise themselves as enlightened, but they have lost much of their middle class and suffer the highest levels of income inequality.

Representatives from these areas now dominate the party and reflect their bifurcated districts.,,,Not surprisingly, this agenda does little for the middle-class — mostly suburban — voters._NewGeography

The middle class -- the backbone of America -- has been devastated by the radical social engineering, corruption, and political favouritism of the Chicago Way mob-style politics.

It isn't really accurate to call what America is going through an "Obama Depression." It is more accurate to call it a nascent civil war. With every new legislative "overhaul" and "bailout" that passes under Obama Pelosi, the US moves closer to a national nuclear fission -- implosion-explosion.

From a disastrously failed economic bailout, to an Obamacare which will reduce access to health care rather than improve it, to a banking reform bill which does everything except help to solve the problem, to an energy policy from hell, the Obama Pelosi agenda has enriched political insiders at the expense of the nation at large -- particularly the embattled middle class.

If you take the recent Dodd-Frank "banking reform" bill, and look merely at its gender and racial quota provisions, the seeds for further economic devastation are apparent -- and the big payoff to Obama Pelosi supporters is painfully clear. Further perusal of the huge Dodd-Frank bill would no doubt find much more, and possibly much worse.

But how long can a regime go on in this way, sucking the life out of a nation to enrich and placate its core support groups? How long before the nation buckles at the knees and falls on its face? It appears that Obama Pelosi intends to find out, by pushing its vampirish agenda upon the US all the way to the failure point.

Finding Yourself a Good Place to Hunker Down

The survival community has not been this stirred up since the days of the Jimmy Carter Malaise of the late 1970s. A lot more people are starting to think about storing a few months of food and water around the old homestead, in case of a temporary disruption in services. But others are going farther than that -- much farther.

For [Jerry] Erwin, the decline is irreversible and the best approach is to prepare for the inevitable.

His pessimism is shared by a wide range of people, from left-wing environmentalists who believe climate change and capitalist greed will doom human society to Christian fundamentalists who think sin will do the same.

They label themselves "preppers," "doomers," and "survivalists," and take a variety of different approaches to the same question: How best to prepare for the coming apocalypse?

...It is unclear how many people subscribe to the lifestyle, but there are hundreds of websites devoted to the movement, and Erwin's surburban-self-reliance.com attracts visitors from around the world.

The global financial crisis has increased interest in survivalism "bigtime," Erwin said, but he feels sorry for latecomers to the movement.

"We'll help them if we can," he said. "But a lot of people are climbing on board at the last minute and its going to be hard for them." _RawStory_via_SurvivalBlog

Some people will want to stay in their suburban homes, and brave whatever comes their way. If their home is a monolithic dome or of similarly durable construction, they may have a good chance to wait out whatever disruptions are short-circuiting the normal functioning of society.

A little extra insurance -- such as the type they could get from US Bunkers -- might also help. Backyard bunkers of various styles might provide enough of a fallback position to survive most disasters.

USBunkers

USBunkersBut if you want true survivability against large numbers of disasters, you will need to forsake the cities and the suburbs for the wildlands -- the deep wildlands.

UndergroundHomes

UnpluggedAbove you can see the living and working quarters for a nuclear missile silo. If you buy an abandoned silo, you should be able to convert it into a fairly comfortable and survivable retreat.

UnpluggedThis is an example of such a conversion, for the upper level working and living section. The silo itself provides much more space for creative re-design.

Of course if you cannot stand the idea of living in a converted missile silo, you can always design and build your survival bunker from the beginning.

VivosA California company, Vivos, is selling shares so that it can do just that. Above is a rendition of what the hub of the Vivos shelter is to look like. The upper level of the hub is for eating, recreation, social interaction, and entertainment. Lower levels include a hospital, dental clinic, and other necessary services for a long-term retreat from a failing society.

VivosThis image shows the hub attached to "spokes" of sleeping and working areas. Vivos sees itself as a "survival cruise ship" located underground.

Below is a video presentation of the Vivos concept.

More video coverage of Vivos

There are as many variations on the idea of "the perfect survival shelter" as there are survivalists and survivalist wannabe's. But in general, it is best not to announce to the world that you are holding wealth (gold, silver, etc), supplies, fuel, medicines, firearms and ammo, etc. in reserve, just in case society fails to hold together.

If you are living on a flood plain, you may need to build your survival bunker up on stilts. Otherwise, consider various types of concealment -- including going underground, or creative use of terrain and landscaping.

A large shelter such as Vivos is proposing, would house up to 4,000 people. Such a shelter might well require a small, modular nuclear fission reactor for power and heat / hot water. Smaller retreats and compounds might get along quite well with a combination of small wind, solar, biomass, and micro-hydro. Plan appropriately, according to the scale of your retreat.

More on this topic later.

After Long Delay, Government Finally OK's Oil Well Tests

For almost 2 days, the US government has withheld final permission for BP to go ahead with crucial but risky pressure testing at the Macondo wellhead. The new sealing cap has the potential to shut off oil flow -- but no one can predict how the well and wellhead will handle the high pressures. The US government has finally given BP the go-ahead, but the going will be very slow.

While conducting the pressure tests, BP will cease containment operations involving the Q4000 and the Helix Producer. It will also halt relief well drilling -- as a further precaution.

The U.S. government has given its approval for BP to temporarily close a sealing cap to shut its blown-out well and determine whether its well casing remains intact, after government officials and scientists reviewed the risk that the operation could result in further, uncontrollable leaks.

Admiral Thad Allen, the administration’s incident commander, said officials exercised “an overabundance of caution” when they delayed BP’s planned shutdown on Tuesday until the company could provide further assurances that it had minimize the risks.

“What we didn’t want to do was compound the problem by making an irreversible mistake,” he said.

Earlier Wednesday, BP vice-president Kent Wells said the company was ready to commence its crucial well-integrity test on Tuesday, but postponed it after a team of company and government scientists wanted further analysis of the risk.

“As much as we want to do things as soon as possible, we also want to make sure they are done correctly,” he said in a morning conference call Wednesday.

The company installed a tight-fitting cap on the blown-out well on Monday and had hoped to begin testing the integrity of the well on Tuesday, a process that could take 48 hours. To do so, it must slowly close valves on the 80-tone cap to stop the geyser of crude for the first time since the well erupted nearly three months ago.

Once the cap is sealed, BP and government scientists will monitor the pressure to ensure well’s cement casing has not been ruptured, which would mean crude is escaping through the space between the casing and the well wall.

If the casing is intact, the company expects to be able to shut in the well until it can complete the drilling of a relief well and plug it permanently sometime in early August. If the casing is ruptured, BP would open the sealing cap and resume funnelling the crude through various collection systems.

Mr. Wells said a team of scientists, working with BP and Obama administration officials, wanted further review of the well integrity test to ensure they properly understood what the pressure readings would imply, and better assess risks that the build of pressure would create additional cracks beneath the surface through which the crude might escape - a risk he described as low.

An unstable area around the wellbore could create bigger problems if the leak continued elsewhere in the well after the cap valves were shut, experts said.

...The cap is just a stopgap measure. To end the leak for good, the well needs to be plugged at the source. BP is drilling two relief wells through the seafloor to reach the broken well, possibly by late July, and jam it permanently with heavy drilling mud and cement. After that, the Gulf Coast faces a long cleanup.

...BP engineers planned to shut off pipes that are already funneling some oil to two ships, to see how the cap handles the pressure of the crude coming up from the ground. Then they planned to close, one by one, three valves that let oil pass through the cap.

Experts said stopping the oil too quickly could blow the cap off or further damage the well.

Scientists will be looking for high pressure readings of 8,000 to 9,000 pounds per square inch. Anything lower than 6,000 might indicate previously unidentified leaks in the well.

“What we can't tell is the current condition of the wellbore below the seafloor,” Mr. Allen said. “That is the purpose of the well integrity test.”

If the cap cannot handle the pressure, or leaks are found, BP will have to reopen the valves and let some of the oil out. In that case, BP is ready to collect the crude by piping it to as many as four vessels on the surface. _Globe&Mail

In hindsight, it seems obvious that BP should have unbolted the riser and bolted on a new containment cap -- with anti-methane hydrate precautions -- from the earliest days of the leak. But many of these procedures have been developed specifically for this leak, and will serve as a textbook of sorts for future deep sea spills -- which are 100% certain to occur.

Al Fin engineers feel that BP should use the new cap for full containment, together with additional production vessels on the surface. But BP wants to shut the well down as soon as possible, to score a public relations home run and to stop the ruinous daily leakage fines and penalties. Without the total containment effort, an exact measurement of flow rates may not be achieved. It would be a pity to shut the well down at this stage without a definitive flow rate having been obtained -- although recent flow rates may not exactly correspond to earlier flow rates.

It is unfortunate, and frustrating, that the relief well activities have to be temporarily suspended for the pressure tests. Suspension of collection activities on the Q4000 and Helix Producer is understandable, however, for the duration of testing.

If the test results are favourable, BP intends to shut the well down from the top, and then to shut the well from the bottom (bottom kill) using heavy mud, when one of the two relief wells is able to do so. Final killing of the well is predicted to occur in August.

Multiple ROV feeds
Another site with multiple ROV feeds

Knocking Out Puberty

Puberty seems to be arriving at earlier ages for both boys and girls. There are many reasons why puberty onset is earlier now, but most of these reasons are still unclear. The problems that arise from premature puberty include violence, higher risks of cancer and diabetes, increased behavioural problems (drugs, alcohol, delinquency etc), isolation from peer groups -- even a change in growth rates for the children of girls with premature onset of puberty.

ImageSource

...children who go into early puberty are prematurely sexualised and too immature to deal with the implications. They are more vulnerable to sexual abuse, inappropriate sexual behaviour, sexually transmitted diseases and teenage pregnancy. “It means that children develop sexually much earlier,” Stanhope says. “They are physically ready for sexual reproduction but mentally completely unready.”

Studies have shown that adolescents who go through puberty earlier are involved in more risk-taking behaviour, such as taking drugs, binge drinking and breaking the law. A premature increase in testosterone can lead to aggression in boys who lack the maturity to control impulses. “We all realise that testosterone is a very difficult hormone to learn to live with,” Stanhope says, tapping a pencil vigorously on his pockmarked table, “and if you get a rise in testosterone outside the normal physiological age, then it’s even more of a problem.”

Research published this year in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology also found increased aggression in girls who reached puberty early. In Britain the uncomfortable reality that children are becoming sexually mature earlier has been overlooked in the recent debate about the over-sexualisation of children. Instead of simply focusing on cynical manufacturers producing padded bras for seven-year-olds, perhaps we should also consider how to respond to the new reality that some girls are now growing breasts at this age.

Stanhope also points out that for women there may be long-term health problems, because early puberty increases exposure to oestrogen. According to Cancer Research UK, a girl who has her first period a year later than her contemporaries has 5% less risk of developing breast cancer in later life. “There may be an important link with breast and ovarian cancer,” Stanhope says. “The earlier a girl has her period, the longer her exposure to oestrogen and this may well have very important sequelae for oestrogen-dependent tumours. This increases her risk of breast cancer, ovarian cancer and of developing cardiovascular problems.”

Girls who reach puberty early are also more likely to develop type 2 diabetes. A 37-year-long study of 61,000 Norwegian women showed that women who got their first period at ten or 11 had a 10% higher mortality rate than those who got their period four years later. _PubertyBlues

Scientists are beginning to home in on the physiological initiators of puberty, and have found a way to delay puberty in mice. By "knocking out" a specific gene, IGF-1R, researchers have both delayed puberty and maintained normal reproductive function after puberty in these knockout mice.

Pubertal onset, initiated by pulsatile gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH), only occurs in a favorable, anabolic hormonal milieu. Anabolic factors that may signal nutritional status to the hypothalamus include the growth factors insulin and IGF-1. It is unclear which hypothalamic neuronal subpopulation these factors affect to ultimately regulate GnRH neuron function in puberty and reproduction. We examined the direct role of the GnRH neuron in growth factor regulation of reproduction using the Cre/lox system. Mice with the IR or IGF-1R deleted specifically in GnRH neurons were generated. Male and female mice with the IR deleted in GnRH neurons displayed normal pubertal timing and fertility, but male and female mice with the IGF-1R deleted in GnRH neurons experienced delayed pubertal development with normal fertility. With IGF-1 administration, puberty was advanced in control females, but not in females with the IGF-1R deleted in GnRH neurons, in control males, or in knockout males. These mice exhibited developmental differences in GnRH neuronal morphology but normal number and distribution of neurons. These studies define the role of IGF-1R signaling in the coordination of somatic development with reproductive maturation and provide insight into the mechanisms regulating pubertal timing in anabolic states. _JCI

Scientists will find additional triggers for pubertal onset besides insulin and IGF-1, and some of those factors may provide a more benign approach to the delaying of puberty.

Paradoxically, IGF-1 is vital for normal development of mice, but knocking out IGF-1 receptors in certain flies and worms can increase lifespan. That paradox is still being studied.

So -- how long should puberty be delayed, if at all? If childhood could be extended for several more years without impairing the ability of the child to learn and mature psychologically, would the potential health and societal benefits be worth the postponement of sexual development of the child?

What if aging itself were to be postponed along with puberty? If total lifespan were extended by the number of extra years a person spent in childhood, would that be beneficial to society or not? What if a person could live an extra 20, 30, or 50 years -- but had to spend those extra years as a pre-pubertal child. Would it be worth it?

Those who see increased longevity as a sure path to overpopulation collapse of Earth's ecosystem, would insist upon some form of sterilisation for those who opt for longevity. In some countries, laws of that type -- mandating permanent sterilisation for anyone undergoing longevity treatments -- should be expected.

Extended pre-puberty is a form of time-limited and (probably) reversible sterilisation, so any longevity approach that also delayed puberty significantly, should not raise the hackles of those suffering from overpopulation anxiety too much. But there are likely to be a large number of objections to such treatments, all the same.

Modern societies appear to see children in a schizoid manner. Fewer children are born, so the one or two children a family does have, are cherished and pampered. On the other hand, children are seen as a hindrance to a hedonic lifestyle, an exorbitant expense and often a great bother. Overall, most children do not seem to be raised or educated very well in modern societies, judging by observable results.

While childhood is not prolonged in modern societies, an incompetent adolescence is certainly prolonged -- in many cases indefinitely. Given the choice between a prolonged childhood leading into an accelerated but prepared-for adolescence, and the current state of lifelong incompetent adolescence commonly seen in the affluent world, most Al Fin mental health professionals would choose the prolonged childhood combined with a prepared-for adolescence that leads into a responsible and competent adulthood.

Flashblood: Accelerating Africa's Sad Trajectory

From Mombasa to Zanzibar, the blood of heroin addicts is circulating, carrying pleasure, disease, and death in its current. Referred to as "flashblood", the practise involves heroin addicts sharing not just needles, but their blood as well. The amount of blood transferred is about 5 ml, or a teaspoon, which is more than enough to transfer HIV from one person to another.

In most East African countries like Tanzania and Kenya, only 3 to 8 percent of adults are infected with the AIDS virus, far fewer than in southern Africa, where the rates reach 15 to 25 percent.

But among those who inject heroin, the rates are far higher. In Tanzania, about 42 percent of addicts are infected. The rate is even higher — 64 percent — among female addicts, Dr. McCurdy said, and since most support themselves through prostitution, they are in two high-risk groups, and their customers are at risk of catching the disease.

Most of the addicts she has interviewed who practice flashblood, Dr. McCurdy said, are women. For them, sharing blood is more of an act of kindness than an attempt to get high: a woman who has made enough money to buy a sachet of heroin will share blood to help a friend avoid withdrawal. The friend is often a fellow sex worker who has become too old or sick to find customers.

...And, there have been scattered reports of flashblood-type practices in other countries with large numbers of heroin addicts, including Pakistan, but they also have not been confirmed by researchers.

...After piercing a vein, an addict will typically draw some blood into the syringe, push it back out and repeat that three or four times to make sure all the heroin has been flushed into their blood. Those offering flashblood will usually hand over the syringe after only one in-out cycle.

The heroin sold in East Africa, she added, is often quite strong because it has come from relatively pure shipments on their way to Europe from Afghanistan or Asia.

Until recently, heroin use was uncommon on the continent because most Africans are too poor for traffickers to bother with. But in the last decade, smugglers have begun using port cities like Dar es Salaam and Mombasa and airport cities like Nairobi and Johannesburg as way stations on their routes: law-enforcement officials can often be bribed, and couriers from countries with no history of drug smuggling may escape searches by European border officers. The couriers may be paid in drugs, which they resell.

With more local users, more heroin is being sold in Africa. In the last decade, law-enforcement and drug treatment agencies said, heroin use has increased, especially in Kenya and Tanzania, South Africa and Nigeria. Brown heroin that must be heated and inhaled — “chasing the dragon” — has given way to water-soluble white heroin that can be injected. Prices have fallen by as much as 90 percent. _NYT

The dual epidemic of heroin and HIV is a tragedy for East Africa, which has experienced lower rates of AIDS up until now. Blood sharing increases the chance of drug resistant HIV in the population -- largely negating the billions of dollars in well-intended medical aid channeled to Africa over the past decade, in terms of future impact.

Much of the heroin is flowing into Africa's East Coast is hidden within the burgeoning conventional trade with China. The heroin is strong and uncut, giving the blood recipient a stronger rush than would be the case for the deeply cut heroin in North American or European cities.

For a population of low average IQ, you will not find many mind-altering drugs which have an overall beneficial effect. Heroin removes a person's motivation to achieve anything beyond acquiring the next dose of drug. Niceties of hygiene are seen as inconsequential in comparison to staving off withdrawal, and achieving the next rush. Communities of drug addicts become evolutionary incubators for colonies of pathological organisms, perfecting their virulence in preparation for a greater assault on the outside world.



Photo Credit: World News

Another Entry in DARPA's Flying HumVee Competition

Just after the new year, DARPA put out a broad agency announcement requesting a flying car, specifically a one-to four-person, vertical takeoff and landing-capable vehicle that can negotiate off-road conditions as well as take to the skies. Today, Fort Worth-based AVX Aircraft has responded with a proposal, releasing some mock-ups of a dual-rotor, ducted-fan driven aircraft that’s also road-ready.

AVX says the four-seater will be able to carry a 1,040-lb. payload 250 miles on a single tank of fuel, peaking at 80 miles per hour over land and 140 miles per hour in the air. It’s coaxial rotor design would certainly satisfy the vertical take-off and landing requirement, and at least the sketches make it look off-road rugged. Unfolding the rotor blades for flight should convert the vehicle from road warrior to aircraft in just one minute. _PopSci

The Fort Worth-based company says the four-seat vehicle will carry a 1,040lb payload, reach 80mph on the road (using the ducted fans to augment electric wheel drive) and 140mph in the air, take off and land vertically, cruise at 10,000ft altitude at max gross weight and travel 250 miles on one tank of fuel.

Conversion from road to flight mode will take 60 seconds, says AVX - basically unfolding the rotor blades. The design certainly looks simpler than Logi AeroSpace's Tyrannos, which has a foldable wing and tilting shrouded propellers. _AviationWeek

The AVX design is competing with the Logi Aerospace Tyrannos design pictured below. The Logi design relies entirely upon relatively unproven ducted fan propulsion units, whereas the AVX design is based upon a more conventional counter-rotating helicopter prop design.

The Tyrannos is a four-seat vertical take-off and landing roadable aircraft powered by a supercharged racing engine driving a generator and a battery pack. These drive electric motors on the wheels for road use and four variable-pitch shrouded propellers for flight. On the road, the wings fold back against the tail booms. The ducted prop in the nose is fixed at -12deg incidence while the other three pivot from horizontal for vertical flight to vertical for forward flight. _AviationWeek

Roadable aircraft and flying cars (or HumVees) provide a more versatile mobility for sportsmen and survivalists, in addition to their potential military applications. Adding the ability to land and take off on water as well as land, provides an even greater mobility.

Some of the competitors for the DARPA contract may eventually decide to build a civilian model, once they prove the concept and establish that a market exists. The likely success of Terrafugia should provide a positive example on that account.

Telling On the Brain...

OTBThe human brain is at an awkward stage in its evolution. Our brains have traveled part of the path away from ape consciousness. But only a small part.

Our brains are limited in many ways. Speed, for example. Our brains are able to detect and react to stimuli far more slowly than the brains of some insects. That is simply a result of how our brains are made and wired -- and is a good thing in many ways. But who wouldn't want to have quicker detection and reaction times, at least in sports such as basketball or boxing? Achieving such an advance would require a lot more overhaul of the human body and brain than most people realise.

Human brains tend to subconsciously ignore the unexpected. This is particularly true when our expectations are focused on something in particular. Admittedly, our brains are lazy. We tend to look for confirmation of believed hypotheses.

Overcoming the natural laziness of the brain is a never-ending chore. But we need to be clever about it. When practising a new skill, for example, we should vary our practise to prevent our brains from falling into too-well-practised ruts. This is as true for learning mental concepts and skills as it is for learning physical skills.

Our brains develop along fairly predictable paths to maturity. And then our brains begin to degenerate. We have very few "peak years" before this degeneration of matured brains begins to occur. We are developing some intriguing methods for treating this degeneration. Which is very fortunate, since we are also developing some early warning diagnostic tools for detecting particular sorts of degenerative changes. It would do little good to specifically identify the problem if we could not treat it.

Our brains will continue to evolve. Biological organisms cannot help evolving, just as the climate cannot help changing. It is the nature of complex, adaptive, quasi-chaotic systems to change. It is the nature of this brain evolution that is in question.

Now that we better understand which parts of the brain give humans cognitive advantages over their primate cousins, and now that we better understand how to promote the growth, survival, and differentiation of neural stem cells, it falls within the power of humans to influence their own brains' evolution.

Bolt on a few co-processor chips, advanced interfaces, and deep brain electrodes, and humans of the future are likely to resemble humans of today as much as modern humans resemble apes.

Imagine No Uncles, Aunts, Cousins, Nieces, or Nephews

The burden of China's one-child policy will fall upon those who need a strong extended family structure. And on successful people who would like to be able to do something to help their kin -- but simply do not have any. A society without uncles, aunts, cousins, nieces, nephews -- without any extended families -- is difficult to imagine for most outsiders. Particularly those from tribal societies such as those in Central Asia, North Africa, the Middle East, etc.

The one child society is the opposite of the tribal society -- where wealth and trust reside within the clan and tribe, and all outsiders are mistrusted and reviled. In a one-child society, everyone is an outsider.

Thirty years ago this September, China began seriously pruning family trees of cousins — and simplifying kinship taxonomy in the process — through the mandatory enforcement of its so-called one-child policy (a misnomer because, among others, rural families and ethnic minorities are allowed to have more than a single kid). By becoming the only country in the world to make compulsory family planning a pillar of national identity, China hoped to prevent a Malthusian nightmare....

...With a current population of 1.3 billion people, China now boasts fertility rates of around 1.6 births per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement rate at which a population is maintained. But the country is also saddled with one of the planet's worst gender imbalances, largely a result of women aborting female fetuses due to a traditional preference for male offspring. Other countries such as India and South Korea also have skewed sex ratios, but the pressure to bear a son is all the greater in China precisely because many families are limited to just one child. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimates that by 2020 there will be at least 24 million "bare branches" — men destined to stay single because there are not enough wives to go around. As more of those boys become bachelors, China risks all sorts of social plagues — from criminal gangs to greater trafficking in women.
The other danger is that China will grow gray before it is rich enough to cope. Reducing population growth has meant that per capita GDP rates have zoomed upward. But factories are now facing shortages of young, skilled labor. By 2050, one-third of Chinese will be elderly. Despite its communist heritage, the People's Republic has little in the way of a national social-security system. Will a generation of "little emperors" be willing or able to support their parents and grandparents?...

...In today's urban China, where fertility rates have dipped so low as to convince local officials to actually encourage procreation, many couples are still choosing a single child. Their preference can be partly explained by 30 years of official propaganda. But it's also a choice made the world over by yuppies who don't want their freedom and finances compromised by the pitter-patter of too many little feet. If anyone's still using my old Mandarin textbook, it's probably safe to skip that page with the dizzying array of cousins. _Time

SunBin
GeoChinaOneChildPolicy

Is Chinese society strong enough to hold together when one third of the population is old, and there are not enough young people to take care of the hundreds of millions of elderly? Without strong kinship relations, and in the face of possible economic turmoil, will overworked single children -- perhaps with single children of their own -- want to take the time to watch over sick, frail, and possibly demented parents or grandparents?

Orphans and parents who lose children to accidents or disease will find themselves in a particularly bad situation.

An extended family with close ties is able to do far more for individual members than most politically focused persons tend to admit. Perhaps that is why religions are beginning to make inroads into Chinese society. Membership in religious organisations may provide the extended family which restricted kinship cannot provide.

Previously published at abu al-fin

Addendum 13July2010-- Things can go wrong, when families place all their bets upon a single child. Single children may grow up pampered -- becoming narcissistic "little emperors," as they say in China. Or worse, they may be neglected or abused, and grow up detached, distrustful, and hostile -- as we see in particular semi-isolated under-performing communities. From the research of Sarah Hrdy:

... many modern children—far from growing up surrounded by doting kin—don't even see much of their busy, working parents. Kids receive much of their care from non-kin, whether babysitters or preschool teachers. Then there are all the children who grow up with only one or no parent or abusive parents. As a result, many kids suffer from "disorganized attachment," which means they have a hard time understanding and trusting others.

If children receive poor care, their innate capacity for caring may not be fully expressed; they may become uncaring parents, colleagues, citizens. Even more alarmingly, the genes underpinning our prosocial impulses may dwindle because they are no longer favored by natural selection. We may lose our innate empathy and compassion, Hrdy speculated, just as cave-dwelling fish lose their eyesight. To an evolutionary theorist "surveying humans 20,000 years hence," Hrdy wrote, "our powerful impulses to empathize with others, to give, to share and seek reciprocation, might seem like nothing more than transient phases in the ongoing evolution of the species." _SciAm

The one-child project is truly an evolutionary experiment by the CCP government of China. Its repercussions will play out over decades, and perhaps much longer.

New Sealing Cap Being Lowered, Prepared for Crucial Pressure Test

Update #2 13July2010: BP is conducting a series of well-integrity pressure tests, to determine whether the wellhead can withstand a total shutdown of oil flow by the new sealant cap / blowout preventer stack. During this time, oil collection to the Q4000 and the Helix Producer are suspended.

If the well and wellhead can hold the pressure coming up the Macondo bore, BP may decide to use the hydraulic ram stack incorporated into the new cap, to shut down the flow. Presumably, if they have any doubt whatsoever about the ability of the well and wellhead to hold high pressure over the next weeks or months -- while the relief wells are attempting a "bottom kill" -- BP will decide to resume full-scale oil containment and collections through the new cap and through the old blowout preventer on the seafloor. More...

Update 18:30 CDT: After a painstakingly slow approach, BP was successful at placing the new sealing cap atop the transition spool (which is bolted atop the blowout preventer). At this point all oil and gas appears to be passing through the new cap and transiting the upper vents. Now BP will conduct a 48 hour test to determine the integrity of the well, and whether they can capture all the oil that is escaping.

If the tests are a success, BP should be able to contain all of the leaking oil for the next few weeks -- until the relief wells can finally kill the well from below (bottom kill)....

Original posting:

BP crews were about 300 feet away from placing a new sealing cap on top of the runaway Maconodo well in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, the company's Chief Executive Officer Doug Suttles said.

The cap, which is essentially a small blow out preventer with a cap on top, has the potential to completely shut in the flow of oil from the well. It will be lowered into place sometime today, Suttles said. _NOLA

al.com
BP is in the final stages of lowering the new sealing cap on top of the transition spool (seen above) which had been affixed onto the Macondo blowout preventer (BOP) earlier. Operations are proceeding ahead of schedule. As soon as the sealing cap is in place and prepared, BP can go ahead with a 48 hour pressure test to determine whether they can fully "shut in" oil containment.

Doug Suttles: Yes, Anne. So once we get the cap in place and fully hooked up we will then – the first thing we’ll do is close in production containment activities on the Q4000 and the helix producer. Once we’ve done that we’ll then close in – if you recall off the top of this ceiling cap is perforated pipe which will allow the flow to come out. We’ll then close that in. Working with government scientists in particular the DOE. We have a protocol for examining the integrity of the well based on the pressure response. That test could last – the initial phases could last about 48 hours. But depending on the response it may have to be extended. So at this point we’ll have to monitor the test and determine whether we can either leave the – leave the well closed in or whether it will be necessary to open it back up again. But I think we should expect that will take at least 48 hours before we know the results.
Anne Thompson: Does that mean there will be no oil flowing out at that point?
Doug Suttles: During the integrity test that’s correct, Anne. Unless of course we discover something during the test that requires us to reopen the flow, but during that 48 hour period there would be no flow. _BP PDF Transcript 12July2010

Once the cap is installed, the company will perform a series of pressure tests to ascertain the wellbore's integrity, Mr. Suttles said.

High pressure would be positive news indicating that the integrity of the well is good and the cap is collecting all of the oil, Mr. Suttles said. Low pressure would indicate oil is escaping and the leak is not fully contained, he said. In that case, the company would have to rely on its containment ships.

The pressure testing could take a minimum of 48 hours, Mr. Suttles said. The entire operation should be finished within four to seven days of its start, which was Saturday.

"There are challenges with each of these steps we have to understand that some of these operations could take longer than forecasted," Mr. Suttles said.

Mr. Suttles stressed that no matter how things work out with the cap, the company is still placing its faith in the ability of a relief well to permanently kill the overflowing well. The relief well could be finished by the end of the month, he said. _WSJ_via_EnergyTribune

Another technical update is scheduled from BP at 14:30 CDT

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