08 January 2013

Global Flow of Human Resources

When we think of a global brain drain, we typically think of third world countries in Africa, and emerging nations in Asia and South America. Despite some recent boom years, even Russia and China are losing significant numbers of their best and most ambitious scientists, engineers, and professionals.
More than 150,000 mainlanders [Chinese] obtained overseas citizenship last year, meaning they have made a new home, or an alternative one. The report says the rich and educated elites are becoming the main force in the latest round of emigration, and that many had left in search of a more democratic society, a cleaner environment and better educational opportunities. The main beneficiaries were the US (87,000), Canada and Australia (30,000 each) and New Zealand (6,000).

Li Xiaogang, a research director of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, says the elite are leaving because China's social and political development has not kept up with the economic environment in which they achieved their success. _Chinese Emigration
Even plucky Israel, with a loyal and vibrant, hardworking and intelligent population, loses educated and skilled people to lands with perceived greater opportunity.
Most Israelis who are headed abroad in search of economic opportunities or furthering their professional careers have their sights set on the United States, although the ultimate destination is largely a function of educational achievements. Emigrants from Israel to the United States tend to be more educated or professionally qualified than those choosing other destinations,...

...Among emigrant families where both spouses were born in Israel, 64% went to the United States, 18% to central or western Europe, 3% to eastern Europe and 15% to other destinations.

...Of the emigrants with undergraduate degrees, 60% went to the United States and 20% to Europe, while for those with a master's degree these figures were 62% and 19%, respectively. Among the Israeli emigrants with a medical degree, 72% chose the United States and 7.6% headed to Europe. For those with a Ph.D., these numbers were nearly 80% and 13%, respectively. _Haaretz
Even highly skilled and educated professionals and scientists from the UK and Europe are leaving for better opportunities in Canada, the US, Australia, and Switzerland. (PDF)

Of course, under US President Obama, US economic prospects continue to be tenuous -- with large numbers of business leaders complaining about the Obama administration's anti-private sector bias, and a high level of uncertainty as to crucial future economic policies in the US. Such dissatisfaction with the economically incompetent US president has kept US employment levels and new business startups suppressed far beyond what would have occurred in a normal recovery.

The prolonged Obama recession has led to what many in the media have labeled a "reverse brain drain" back to countries of origin for many educated emigrants and persons on educational visas. But in the larger scheme of things, such a "reverse brain drain" constitutes more of an eddy current than a genuinely significant counter-current -- at least so far.

Give Obama enough time to wreck the US economy, and such a reverse brain drain may well develop in earnest. That would require rational economic policies to be instituted in other countries, of course, which is not typically seen these days.

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11 December 2012

Brain Drain vs. Womb Drain: Which Will Deplete Russia First?

Russia is vast and rich, with abundant resources -- both human and natural. Russia should not be in decline. And yet, the bear's life blood is seeping out, as its best young men and women look abroad to escape the growing despair and futility.

Russia's ongoing demographic crisis affects the dying bear in many ways. More.

Not only is Russia suffering a "brain drain," it is also suffering a "womb drain" -- a steady out-migration of its fertile young women.

One aspect of the Russian womb drain is the Russian Bride phenomenon. Every year, thousands of young Russian women go through official emigration channels in order to escape the dead-end of modern Russia.

A darker aspect of Russia's womb drain is the steady out-flow of young Russian women looking for jobs as models and actresses -- but who end up as "hostesses," escorts, strippers, lap-dancers, and prostitutes in clubs and dives around the world.
In 1994–2009, according to the official data, Russia was left by nearly 900,000 women—because of an intensive female emigration, stimulated by various employment agencies abroad. A considerable part of the women, on the pretext of helping to find a well-paid job abroad, was criminally involved in the sex industry and other illegal activity

It is reasonable to assume that the real number of women emigrated from Russia is 1.5–2 times greater than the official data.

The reproductive losses caused by female emigration from Russia are indirectly estimated at 833,000 children that will not be born in the nearest 5 years. [15] _Demographia.ru

Russia's demographic decline has spawned a number of creative "solutions." One Russian feminist, author, and TV personality has proposed a large scale importation of young men from India, to serve as husbands for young Russian women.
Indian bridegrooms can help ward off a Chinese demographic invasion in Russia, says the feminist: “If we do not balance off the Chinese with Indians, Africans or aliens, by 2050 China will annex Russia’s Siberia up to the Ural Mountains.” _The Hindu
This sad portrait of Russian demographics from 2002, was thought to have been made obsolete by Vladimir Putin's bold new approach to governance. Unfortunately, as this update shows, Russia's decline is not so easily reversed.

High death rates combined with low birth rates have led to an ongoing decline in absolute numbers of ethnic Russians. Immigration into Russia from surrounding primitive areas and third world countries paints a false picture of Russian population resurgence -- but the underlying human capital of Russia's core population is being lost.

It is almost as if Putin and his cronycrats have given up on Russia's future, and are merely seeking to stash away as much of Russia's wealth as possible before the population overflow from neighboring countries -- including China -- sweeps across the empty Russian landscape.

Russia is aging rapidly, and losing its working-age population. By 2030, Russia is set to lose 17 million skilled workers. No one knows how these crucial workers will be replaced -- or if it is even possible to replace them.

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13 November 2012

Irony Alert! Pravda Touts UK "Brain Drain Disaster"

While Russia itself is in the midst of its own decades-long brain drain, the Russian media outlet Pravda is shining the spotlight thousands of kilometres from Moscow on the United Kingdom. According to Pravda, the UK is facing a serious disaster:
The UK government is seriously concerned. According to statistics, every three minutes a citizen leaves the country. If this trend continues, the state will soon be on the brink of a disaster whose consequences would be nearly impossible to eliminate. According to the analysts at the University of Huddersfield, the reduction in the number of scientists willing to emigrate can only be achieved by an increase in the level of wages, as well as allocating additional funding for research activities.

according to the analysts at the University of Huddersfield, the country is suffering not only from the loss of skilled workers, but also the "brain drain." Every year in the UK each university loses two to three high-level scientists.

Emigration rates are striking. The Telegraph, citing the National Bureau of Statistics, reported that only this year over 400,000 British citizens left the country, which has not happened in the last 50 years.

According to analysts of the British Institute of Social Policy Studies, one in twelve citizens lives abroad, and over a million are seriously considering leaving the United Kingdom in the next two to three years. The Institute analysts argue that those leaving the country are mostly middle-aged professionals who want to find a better place to work. The young British stay in the country.
The Pravda piece appears to conflate the idea of a "brain drain" with the very real phenomenon of Britons retiring to nicer climates, or moving abroad to work in lucrative fields.

According to the piece, UK universities lose 2 to 3 high level scientists per year, a very small portion of the 400,000 emigrants. And certainly Russia itself has been losing its top scientists and technologists at a much higher rate for 20 years and counting. But for some reason, Pravda finds Britain's "brain drain" troubling and disastrous.

In Russia, it is the lack of opportunity caused by rampant corruption and massive dysfunction that drives its best and brightest young people out. No one trusts Russia's markets or its government.

One interesting aspect of the UK emigration puzzle -- which is shared by Israel -- is that the UK is often a "stopover destination" for immigrants from poorer nations. These "stopover immigrants" often acquire more education and training in their intermediate destinations, then move on to Switzerland, the US, Canada, Australia, or New Zealand.

Complicating the global picture is the fact that the US Obama government -- and other dysfunctional western governments -- are so badly mis-managing their economies and minimising opportunities, that they are driving many highly skilled immigrants either back to their home countries, or to yet another, third country.

So raise a glass of chilled vodka to the stalwart journalists of Pravda, who understand what must be done to keep their jobs and their Moscow residences. Media skanks tend to all smell the same, no matter where they live and work.

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17 April 2011

Young Russians Fleeing a Sinking Ship

Scared, fed up and feeling disenfranchised, many successful Russians are investing in citizenship in Western countries, according to consultants who have made a business of facilitating such emigration.

"It seems that the whole generation of 25- to 45-year-old Russians is actively thinking about running away, especially considering the prospect of seeing the same people in power for another 12 years, starting 2012. All dinner conversations tend to finish with this subject," said the general director of a multibillion-dollar multinational company in Russia, who asked not to be identified because of the blunt nature of his comments. _MoscowTimes
In our People Risk study, we found that Russia currently has the highest brain drain risk compared to the other three countries (see Figure 2). The issue of an ageing population is also an important factor for companies to consider as it can, and will, impact the company's workforce planning and costs in the future. Russia poses the highest risk of an ageing population, with close to 18% of its population above the age of 60, as compared to Brazil (9.9%), India (7.4%) and China (11.9%). _aon.com
Al Fin has been told by several readers that he is too hard on Russia. But compared to many young modern Russians, Al Fin's criticisms are quite mild.
In recent times, the posting of one blogger, who has left Russia, is popular in the Russian segment of the internet.

He, in particular, writes: «Russia is an evil, moreover – of a worldwide scale. Evil must be annihilated. Consequently, everything that is directed against Russia is a good.

…In general, to emigrate is much easier than this seems from Russia. To get a tourist visa now is not a problem, a residence permit – of course, is more complex, but here too there are different paths. As an example, if there are no provable grounds to ask for the status of a refugee – one can get a work visa to Australia or Canada; there, unlike in the USA, they give it automatically, if you gather the necessary quantity of points, given by profession (from a rather large list), education, knowledge of the language, age (the younger, the better), etc. Of course, nobody’s waiting for us anywhere with open arms, certain difficulties, especially at the start, will have to be overcome everywhere. But what is being spoken of is not getting into paradise. What is being spoken of is breaking out of hell. From a hell that in the foreseeable prospect is going to be getting ever worse and worse. By the way, a country and a people consistently standing up on the side of evil don’t deserve anything else.

I still don’t know how my own personal destiny will turn out, will they give me asylum in the USA or will I have to look for another country for myself. I know one thing – I will not return to Russia in any event…» _EurasiaReview
The situation inside Russia can be very bleak for the young, bright, and ambitious.
As chief of the migration laboratory at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Zhanna A. Zayonchkovskaya has studied previous waves of emigration, including in the 1990s, when as many as 6 million people left. But her desire to research this one puts her up against the wall others are confronting.

“Brain drain is a very urgent topic now,” she said. “We would like to study it, but we cannot get the money to do it.”

President Dmitry Medvedev drew attention to the brain drain in October, when two emigre scientists born and educated in Russia won the Nobel physics prize. They work in Britain, where they have attracted a number of other Russian-born scientists.

“We need to make an effort so that our talented people do not go abroad,” Medvedev said, adding that the government had failed to invest sufficiently in research. He has been trying to recruit foreigners to make Russia more competitive. _WaPo
Russia's human infrastructure is crumbling along with its physical and technological infrastructures. Vodka makes Russians feel warm at night, but it is a false warmth with no future.
For many educated young Russians, Western countries seem to have an intractable allure, whether there are more work opportunities, a better educational system, or simply nicer weather. While this last reason may seem trivial, many students are beginning to wonder if the grass is literally greener on the other side.

“Each year, I ask my master’s students where they see themselves three or four years from now,” Moscow State University economics professor Alexander Auzan said at a conference in the Polytechnic Museum this year. “In September 2010 roughly half said they envisaged themselves working abroad: not just anywhere but quite specifically in Germany, Britain, Ireland, or Argentina.” _Indrus.in
Young Russian women may find more paths open to them for emigration, not all of them with happy endings. But for the young who are bright, well trained, and ambitious, the rest of the world holds many possibilities.
For most of the men who stay in Russia, the picture is not very pretty.
RUSSIA is suffering from a serious shortage of men, with a high male mortality rate fuelled by heart disease and alcoholism, The Moscow Times reported today.

Preliminary census results showed that Russia's population dropped by 2.2 million since 2002 to just under 143 million, suggesting the government's efforts to boost the population were not working.

Just 46.3 percent of Russia's population was made up of men, down from 46.6 percent in 2002, the report said.

"Women here live longer," the newspaper quoted demographics researcher Boris Denisov as saying.

Men "do not want to live" in Russia, he added.

Russia has experienced a dramatic drop in population since the fall of the Soviet Union, fueled by alcoholism and unhealthy lifestyles as well as emigration. _HeraldSun.au

Interestingly, Russian women live about ten years longer than Russian men, but retire 5 years earlier at 55. Sadly, most Russian men never live to 60 to enjoy retirement, while retired Russian women have only the vodka to keep them company those long cold winter nights.

No wonder so many young Russians want to leave, to avoid such fates.

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15 December 2008

Brain Drains in an Obama Depression

...“There is a regular movement of immigration to countries like the US, Australia, Canada, and also to Western Europe. The income in these countries is higher, and people come there from all over the world..._Source
The financial problems of the western world have slowed some of the influx from the third world. Need for unskilled and low skilled labour is much less, for example. Shortage of capital has made new startups more difficult. Some universities are freezing or cutting back on faculty and staff.

Bad decisions by governments such as in the UK are making their economic problems worse, and spurring immigration outward to other nations of the Anglosphere and Europe:
The introduction of the new 45% income tax band which will come into force in 2011 has put many of the higher earners in the UK on red alert. A number of reports of late have highlighted the fact that when you take into account VAT, income tax, national insurance and other unavoidable taxes in the UK the top earners in the UK are paying tax in the region of 60% on their earnings.

There are serious concerns that we will see a substantial brain drain from the UK over the next two or three years with more than enough overseas countries willing to accommodate the high earners on better rates. Not only will we see income tax receipts reduce for the Treasury but the potential for UK business as a whole will also be dented as the more entrepreneurial business minds move elsewhere. _FinancialAdvice
Some third world nations, such as Iran, stand out as particularly prone to losing their talent to nations with more freedom and opportunity.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Iran has the world’s highest rate of brain drain. Every year, more than 150,000 highly educated Iranians leave their country. The majority emigrate to the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Australia. The damage caused by this phenomenon is estimated to be $40 billion a year. _PJM
But the problem is also an internal one for western nations. The state government of California, for example, is so bad that it is driving a "brain drain" of producers from the golden state outward to more business friendly and less tax-and-regulation driven areas of the US.
The high cost of housing is driving job-seekers away from California, causing the gap to widen between educated workers and employers, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. _Dailynews
That is a really a copout on the part of the Public Policy Institute of California. It is the high cost of living and doing business that is driving educated workers, startups, and employers away from California.

The global economic retrenchment will have an uneven effect on emigration and immigration. While economic conditions have slowed almost everywhere, things are much worse in some places than others. Further, economic turbulence is likely to trigger political changes -- such as the recent US elections -- which will more than likely make matters even worse.

As a promoter of huge central government quasi-fascism, the Obama / Pelosi government will raise taxes on the entrepreneurial classes, open the door to labour union abuses, and make it even easier for trial lawyers to shut down enterprise using frivolous lawsuits. Obama is likely to slow the US economy so that it will act as less of an attractant to top overseas business, engineering, and science talent.

The resulting Obama recession / depression will trickle down to the BRIC and third world nations, slowing some areas of immigration and accelerating others. Some regions of the US that are furthest from the worst affected areas of the Obama depression will continue to attract 3rd world and BRIC immigrants. For Europe and the Anglosphere: it depends upon how far they pursue carbon hysteria and Obama style fascism, as to how well they ride out the economic turbulence.

The recent financial miscues of big banks and institutions from the US to China have created enough problems on their own. Unfortunately, governments of the world appear to be intent on multiplying and amplifying the problems to far greater magnitude. What we will see is the economic rise of particular sectors and regions. It is those sectors and regions which are able to maintain their productivity and support for education and R&D that will reap the largest crop of immigrants -- from both within and without.

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20 May 2008

Europe's Problems: No Rescue Likely This Time

Europe's problems continue to grow, and this time it is unlikely that Europe will be rescued by any outside party. The best to be hoped, perhaps, is that Europe will not start any more continent-wide wars--hot or cold, trade wars or real wars. Europe needs to begin cleaning up the mess she has made before things truly go downhill. First, the demographic time bomb--a large portion of which is the exploding populations of intolerant, potentially violent Muslim immigrants.
* Discrimination against other religions (with special emphasis on the rising European phenomenon of Islamic anti-Semitism), outlooks (inc. atheism) and lifestyles;
* Discrimination and violence against women (esp. wives and “disobedient” daughters);
* Discrimination and violence against homosexuals;
* Threats of violence in any form and for whatever alleged “offense” or “insult” (e.g. drawing cartoons, making documentaries, writing books);
* Apology or justification for all of the above.

It is essential to focus on the despicable acts themselves, and then drawing the direct line to the commands of Islam’s scripture and its founder __Source

Economic problems--especially a coming loss of purchasing power and productivity--also sit dark and heavy on the landscape.
Across Europe, people in the middle layer of the labor force - from office workers, civil servants and skilled laborers to low-level managers - are coping with a growing sense that they are being pushed to the margins like never before, as a combination of rising costs and stagnant wages erodes their purchasing power.

Prices for basic goods from gas to milk are rising sharply, outpacing pay rises linked to official rates of inflation. Families that once maintained pleasant lifestyles afforded by two incomes find the rise in costs - which have accelerated worldwide in the past year - has pushed them to the tipping point. __Source

Problems of stagflation are striking families all across Europe:
“When I started working at 23, I earned almost the same wage that I earn now,” said María Salgado, a 37-year-old director of television documentaries living in Madrid. Fourteen years ago, her monthly salary of about 1,200 euros ($1,873), bankrolled a full social life.

No longer. “The well-to-do middle class has become the tight middle class,” she said. “I’m surprised we haven’t started a revolution.”

... “I look at people on the bus and they seem sad and beaten down,” said Ms. Di Pietro, referring to Italy’s malaise. “We’re 40 years old. We should be feeling more combative, but really all we feel is frustrated.”

Some European governments are promising relief, but their ability to curb inflation or raise pay is limited. __Source

And so the Europeans who can read the tea leaves, are choosing emigration more and more.
The number of emigrants leaving the Netherlands and Germany has already surpassed the number of immigrants moving in. One does not have to be prophetic to predict, like Henryk Broder, that Europe is becoming Islamic. Just consider the demographics. The number of Muslims in contemporary Europe is estimated to be 50 million. It is expected to double in twenty years. By 2025, one third of all European children will be born to Muslim families. Today Mohammed is already the most popular name for new-born boys in Brussels, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and other major European cities.

...Some of the people I meet in the U.S. are particularly worried about the rise of anti-Semitism in Europe. They are correct when they fear that anti-Semitism is also on the rise among non-immigrant Europeans. The latter hate people with a fighting spirit. Contemporary anti-Semitism in Europe (at least when coming from native Europeans) is related to anti-Americanism. People who are not prepared to resist and are eager to submit, hate others who do not want to submit and are prepared to fight. They hate them because they are afraid that the latter will endanger their lives as well. In their view everyone must submit. __Source
But they are that way because this is what they have been taught. All their friends think and talk the same, they are living in an echo chamber. Reality is soon to come crashing down upon their heads, all the same.

For most people living in North America and the extended Anglosphere, Europe is the source of their ancestors. Europe is the natural ally for North America, and has been throughout much of the past century. Many North Americans have died to ensure the freedom of Europe from tyrannies of several stripes.

In the long run, Europe should remain a natural ally for the Anglosphere. It will be necessary for a more sustainable stance toward third world immigration to be adopted--to prevent the almost inevitable deluge of religious violence sweeping toward Europe from Muslim lands. It will be necessary for Europeans to find better sources for a future work force than they have found recently--either breed them or entice them in. Europe will have to take a more realistic attitude toward her own defense. She cannot rely on old, despised allies indefinitely in that regard.

If Europe fails to face her demographic, economic, and security problems, it is unlikely that she can expect outside assistance, this time.

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11 March 2008

Go See Europe: While It Lasts

The fertility rate for Spain is 1.15 children per woman. Replacement level is 2.1 children per woman. European levels across the board are below 1.5. Europe is shrinking, Europe is dying. Looking at Spain (from a Dennis Mangan comment):1.15 Children per female birthrate in Spain...

200 people have 115 children.
115 children have 66 grandchildren.
66 grandchildren have 38 great grandchildren.......

It is clear that as indigenous Spaniards, Russians, Germans, and French decline rapidly, third world immigrants to Europe will be procreating at rates well above 3.0 children per woman. With polygamy fueled by young female immigration and supported by state welfare payments, the fertility rate for third worlders in Europe could easily reach 5.0, per 1st generation woman. But if you think about it, even with a fertility rate barely above replacement, third worlders would replace Europeans within a few generations! You must include European decline juxtaposed to third world incline, when looking at demographic projections.
Russian Population
The poorer the nation, the higher the fertility rate. Understand that the poorer the nation, the greater the motivation to emigrate away from the third world toward the first world. The overcrowding from high fertility accelerates the poverty, and acts as a physical force to push uneducated third worlders over to Europe.As illiterate third worlders replace the voting populations of modern Europe, the outlook of European governments will necessarily change. Infrastructure will necessarily break down for lack of upkeep. Cities of Europe will resemble Beirut at its worst. Recent elections in Kenya will become the model for European elections. Europe is growing old, while poorer and less literate nations are remaining young, and reproducing rapidly. The surplus young will continue pouring across porous borders, looking for opportunity wherever it presents itself. While the opportunity held out by the USA is the opportunity to work hard and prosper, the opportunity that Europe presents to the third world is the opportunity to receive generous state welfare payments. Europe may as well erect billboards across the third world: "Come to Europe and have many children--on our dime!"

If you take into account that a large slice of Europe's best educated and most energetic people are emigrating from Europe to the far-flung Anglosphere, the situation appears particularly bleak for Europe. And Europe's brightest and most ambitious who choose to stay at home? Their fertility rate is even lower than that of their nation's as a whole. Much lower. So visit while you can. While Europe still exists as Europe.

Transition of Europe and Japan to labour shortage economies
Fascinating Philip Longman PDF presentation on depopulation
Russian plans to reverse population decline
No Easy Answers

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26 February 2008

Europe, UK: Brain Drain in Science, Medicine

Europe and the UK are suffering from a growing stampede of educated professionals, scientists, and technical specialists out of the region.
Record numbers of Britons are leaving - many of them doctors, teachers and engineers - in the biggest exodus for almost 50 years.

Skilled professionals, including doctors, are leaving the UK in record numbers Over a quarter of qualified professionals who have moved abroad had health or education qualifications

There are now 3.247 million British-born people living abroad, of whom more than 1.1 million are highly-skilled university graduates, say the researchers.

More than three quarters of these professionals have settled abroad for more than 10 years, according to the study by the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

No other nation is losing so many qualified people, it points out. Britain has now lost more than one in 10 of its most skilled citizens, while overall only Mexico has had more people emigrate.

The figures, based on official records from more than 220 countries, will alarm Gordon Brown as tens of thousands of pounds of taxpayers' money is spent on educating graduates. The cost of training a junior doctor, for example, is £250,000.

The most popular destinations are English-speaking countries such as Australia, America, Canada and New Zealand and holiday areas including France and Spain.

Almost 60 per cent of those leaving take jobs, although hundreds of thousands of retired people live abroad.___Telegraph
Feedback on this issue from Telegraph readers can be found here. Many informed blog comments on the same article can be found here. North Americans may find it difficult to understand why so many Europeans are so eager to leave. Particularly leftist North Americans, who so badly want to reproduce Western Europe within the borders of North America.

Unfortunately, there are many good reasons for Europeans and Britons to leave their home countries, as the comments linked to above will demonstrate. I see two overwhelming themes dominating the reasons behind this brain drain.

  • 1. Out of control immigration into Europe by uneducated, undisciplined, intolerant newcomers, leading to higher violent crime and property crime rates.
  • 2. Excessive taxation and regulation of the productive classes to benefit the non-productive, quasi-parasitic classes (including many of the new immigrants).
The trend will only accelerate with time and continued immigration of violent and religiously intolerant, unassimilable newcomers. When you lose residents at the high end of education and income, and gain residents at the lowest end of education and income--in fact gaining criminals and welfare dependents--then the long-term prospects look grim. It is no wonder that European women are reproducing at only half the replacement levels.Bonus image from Noodle Food demonstrates the flow of emigrant MDs between the four countries: the UK, the US, Canada, and Australia. It is important to realise that although the flow of MDs goes both ways between each pair of countries, there is a distinct lopsidedness there. The desirability rankings, based upon the emigration:immigration ratio, go like this:

1. US
2. Canada
3. Australia
4. UK

The MDs are mostly leaving the UK, and eventually mostly ending up in the US. It would be helpful to have similar information regarding other medical professionals, scientists, teachers, engineers, IT professionals, etc. who are emigrating from the UK and Europe.

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16 January 2008

Putin's Russia Becoming Unpopular with Neighbors

Vladimir Putin was Time's Man of the Year. The rest of the world seems to be souring on Putin, however.
Much has been said and written by his foes about how the foreign policy of U.S. President George W. Bush has alienated what should be a host of American allies in Europe. Recent elections in Britain, Germany and France, however, have produced national leaders who have been outspoken in expressing their American sympathies, and a recent survey shows that the world overwhelmingly still wants America to play a key role in world affairs.

What has not been noticed in all the fury of anti-Bushism is the extent to which Russia’s ruler, Vladimir Putin, has actually done what Bush is merely accused of doing — namely alienate the whole of Europe against him....European hostility to Putin is not merely rhetorical. In fact, public statements by European leaders are often conciliatory, such as when French President Nicolas Sarkozy telephoned Putin to congratulate him on his party’s victory in the recent parliamentary elections. But actions speak louder than words: Putin’s government is currently the target of a multiplicity of very serious legal actions in major European courts which could result in undermining his ability to govern.

Russia simply can’t afford to repudiate the legal basis for its dealings with Europe in the energy field, dealing that provide the basic working capital for the Kremlin’s continued existence....So it’s entirely possible that within the next year or two the European courts will completely unravel the tidy little package into which the Kremlin had stuffed its chief political foe, calling the legitimacy of the Putin regime itself into serious question and giving Russia the international image of a banana republic. That’s to say nothing of having to shell out $100 billion in damages....encircled by aggressive legal actions, Russia begins to seem more and more like an isolated paper bear, rather than the resurgent world player described by Time. The ECHR has already found Russia guilty of state-sponsored murder in Chechnya, and in April of last year Georgia filed suit there alleging mass persecution of Georgians in Russia after Georgia claimed to have discovered a Russian-sponsored coup plot against Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and arrested four Russian military officers.

Major newspaper reports in Germany and the United States have pointed out the “Potemkin Village” nature of Russia’s military and economic leverage, exposing a fundamentally weak society that is scarcely capable of stark intimidation on the international scene, so Britain apparently felt secure in calling Russia’s bluff. These measures may be getting under Putin’s skin; he openly expressed consternation over the extent to which Western governments were willing to support the opposition parties in the recent parliamentary elections.

The Russian population is shrinking, despite the best efforts of Putin and his "Putin Youth" nationalist groups to encourage Russians to have more children. Military and civil infrastructures are losing vital, skilled personnel to premature death, retirement, and emigration. Domestic clampdowns on individual and group freedoms are turning Russia into a rigid and brittle "petro-state." An economic "one-trick-pony" that depends upon the high price of fossil fuels for most of its international clout.

Problem: the infrastructure of the Russian oil industry is wearing out quickly. Only international companies have the expertise to achieve sustainable growth of yields in Russia's oil and gas fields. But Russia is nationalising assets of international companies--causing increasing reluctance to get involved in Russia.

It is not "peak oil" that is hurting production in the Persian Gulf, Russia, Venezuela, Africa, etc. It is the abysmal misuse and disuse of technology by nationalised oil industries. Let the international companies back in, and watch how quickly production ramps up.

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07 August 2007

Quitting Britain for a New Life Elsewhere--The Egress of the Young Professionals

In just the past seven months, applications to leave the UK have soared 80% to almost 4,000 a week! What could possibly be driving so many young professionals to quit Britain for the new world?
Most people are relocating within the Commonwealth – in Australia, Canada and South Africa. They are almost all young professionals and skilled workers aged 20-40.

And many cite their reason for wanting to quit as immigration to these shores – and the burden it is placing on their communities and local authorities. The dearth of good schools, spiralling house prices, rising crime and tax increases are also driving people away.

Obtaining a visa to live abroad can cost as little as £1,500 for the right candidates. Plumbers, electricians, construction workers and doctors are famously in demand. The only obstruction to emigration from the UK is a criminal record, poor health, advancing age and being a “third country national”.

...“It’s a shame people at the top don’t recognise they’re not doing enough to retain highly skilled workers in this country. A lot of them are quite young, and they’re not idle. They just can’t see a future for themselves in this country. They want to get married and settle down and buy homes, but they can’t see it happening here.

“And time and time again they are saying to us they don’t want to be seen as racist because they are quitting because of immigration. We tell them of course they’re not.”

According to the most recent Office of National Statistics figures, in 2005 the official number of people leaving UK shores was 352,000 – up from 249,000 in 1995. The majority – around 150,000 – migrated from London and the south east.

(via Kim du Toit)

The same thing is happening in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and many other European countries. Changes in demographics and government policies that are unfriendly to indigenous Europeans are making it more difficult and dangerous to stay in Europe and the UK. Not to mention the increased crime that accompanies the changes above.

In Canada and Australia, the same sort of changes are happening--though at a slower pace. The conservative governments in Australia and Canada are trying to hold back the problems currently swamping Europe. As for South Africa, I suspect that those who emigrate from the UK to the former land of apartheid may enjoy a few years of affluence there before the country's economy begins to follow the path blazed by Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. Live and learn.

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11 April 2007

Britain's Tragic Brain Drain

Professor John Salt of the University College London, is concerned that Britain is losing too many of its finest brains.
Of those leaving the UK, almost half - 42 per cent - were professionals or managers.

They are heading mainly for New Zealand, Australia, the U.S., and Canada.

In his report for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Professor Salt said: "Migration flows are tending towards a de-skilling of the UK labour market."

....Organised gangs are offering to smuggle thousands of illegal immigrants into Britain for as little as £200 from a new base near the closed Sangatte welfare centre, it has emerged.
Hat tip Immigration Watch

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16 September 2006

Will the Last European to Leave Europe Please . . . Do Nothing . . .

. . . . because the light, you see, will go out by itself.

Europeans are suffering from an interesting dilemma. They choose not to procreate to replacement value, yet they are heavily dependent upon a social welfare system that requires lots of fresh new taxpaying workers to replace those middle-aged workers so eager to retire. What is worse, many of the most productive and inventive potential taxpayers are packing up and leaving for other countries--as are some of the most productive businesses and employers.

This updated webpage tries to keep up with some of the reasons for the outflow from Europe:

Escaping the stress of clogged roads, street violence and loss of faith in Holland's once celebrated way of life, the Dutch middle classes are leaving the country in droves for the first time in living memory. The new wave of educated migrants are quietly voting with their feet against a multicultural experiment long touted as a model for the world, but increasingly a warning of how good intentions can go wrong. Australia, Canada and New Zealand are the pin-up countries for those craving the great outdoors and old-fashioned civility. …

More people left the Netherlands in 2003 than arrived, ending a half-century cycle of surging immigration that has turned a tight-knit Nordic tribe into a multi-ethnic mosaic with three million people of foreign roots out of 16 million. Almost one million are Muslims, mostly Turks and Moroccan-Berbers. In Rotterdam, 47 per cent of the city's population is of foreign origin. While asylum claims have plunged, the exodus is accelerating, reaching 13,313 net outflow in the first half of 2004. Many retiring workers are moving to the south of France, but a growing bloc leaving the country appears to be educated, working families. …

Unlike most earlier waves of migration to the new world, this one is not driven by penury. The Netherlands has a per capita income higher than Germany or Britain, and 4.7 per cent unemployment. "None of my clients is leaving for economic reasons. You can't get a visa anyway if you haven't got a work record," said Frans Buysse[, the head of a private immigration consultancy]. Europe's leader for much of the last century in social experiments, Holland may now be pointing to the next cultural revolution: bourgeois exodus.

The Pim Fortuyn and Theo van Gogh murders seem to be the motor force here; and if two murders can spur such a shift in opinion in the Netherlands, clearly similar acts of violence can have a similar effect in other European countries.

Dec. 27, 2004 update: Christopher Caldwell of the Weekly Standard glosses the recent surge in Dutch emigration this way:

London's Daily Telegraph, citing immigration experts and government statistics, reported a net outflow of 13,000 people from Holland in the first six months of 2004, the first such deficit in half a century. One must treat this statistic carefully—it could be an artifact of an aging population in which many are retiring to warmer places. But it could also be the beginning of something resembling the American suburban phenomenon of "white flight," occurring at the level of an entire country

Feb. 12, 2005 update: According to Filip Dewinter, the leader of Vlaams Belang, Belgium's Flemish anti-immigrant party, about 4,000 to 5,000 Flemish residents are leaving Antwerp every year, even as 5,000 to 6,000 non-European immigrants arrive in the city each year. Within ten years, he expects that people of non-European backgrounds will number over one-third of the city's population.

Feb. 14, 2005 update: "More people left Holland in 2003 than arrived," informs the Daily Telegraph in an article on emigration from Holland, "Dutch join the migrant exodus to Australia."

Feb. 27, 2005 update: "More Dutch Plan to Emigrate as Muslim Influx Tips Scales" reads the blunt New York Times headline over a story by Marlise Simons. It recounts how the murder of Theo van Gogh led to an emigration specialist being "inundated" with messages. "There was a big panic, a flood of people saying they wanted to leave the country." An agency that handles paperwork for departing Dutch was had four times the normal rate of contacts following the murder. Those leaving tell of a general pessimism about their country and about the social tensions that accompanied the waves of mostly Muslim immigrants. The emigrants tend to leave for Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Diplomats from those three countries confirmed the interest, saying they had been "swamped" with inquiries. The reporter notes statistics pointing to "a quickening flight of the white middle class." In 1999, nearly 30,000 native Dutch moved elsewhere, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. For 2004, the provisional figure is close to 40,000. "It's definitely been picking up in the past five years," said a demographer working at the bureau.

March 3, 2005 update: Ha'aretz reports today on a survey that finds "60,000 French Jews want to move to Israel." Arik Cohen of Bar-Ilan University reached this conclusion by giving questionnaires to the 125,000 French Jewish tourists who visited Israel in the summer of 2004. Of this huge sample, 52 percent said they see their future in Israel. Half of those aged 15-18 said they had personally experienced instances of anti-Semitism in the past four years. A third of the youth said they are considering immigration to Israel in the near future. The findings were presented at a press conference in Jerusalem inaugurating AMI, an organization of French Jewry for increasing Jewish immigration from France.

May 4, 2005 update: Radio Nederlands informs us that in 1999, nearly 30,000 native Dutch emigrated and in 2004, that figure had gone up to nearly 50,000. These are not just any emigrants but, as the director of a migration consultancy bureau in Amsterdam, Grant King, notes, "Most of our applicants are in high-paying, good, solid positions here - they are not the unemployed. They are mostly middle-class Dutch people with college or university degrees. … The problem for the Netherlands is that the ones that they don't want to lose are the ones that are leaving."

Henri Beunders, professor of history, media and culture at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, notes the role of the Theo van Gogh murder: "The assassin of Theo van Gogh released not only anger but a lot of fear of fanatic Muslims and random violence. It was new for Dutch people to feel physical insecurity, because we are living in a very small country where you can come across anybody." One emigration consultant, Frans Buysse, received four times the usual level of hits on his website in the weeks after the killing of van Gogh.

Asked if the Dutch government should worry about this emgiration, Beunders says no, that immigrants to the Netherlands will replace the Dutch who leave. He concedes only that "It will make things a bit more complicated because you have to integrate an even greater number of foreigners into your own country, with all the very complicated regulation systems we have in this country." He also wants to see benefit in this exchange: "Growing mobility, on the other hand, is also a good sign of the growing unification of Europe and understanding of people - I hope." In like spirit, the radio reporter, Sarah Johnson, speculates that "Europe's pioneer for much of the last century in social experiments, it seems the Netherlands may now be pointing to the next cultural revolution: the bourgeois exodus."

Other problems include the lack of seriousness toward crime that some European countries exhibit. I suspect that the sense that Europe is a poorly defended, poorly administered high priced dead-end retirement home, being taken over by a violent, alien culture, causes some young and ambitious Europeans with good prospects to consider emigrating.

May 29, 2006 update: The invaluable Paul Belien concludes his article, "For Whom the Bell Tolls," in the Brussels Journal bitterly noting that, "Last year Hirsi Ali was elected ‘European of the Year.' It is a bad omen for Europe when the ‘European of the Year' leaves for America." He continues with the observation that many other Dutch do not seem to have much confidence in their country's chances of survival. Last year a record number of 121,000 people emigrated from the Netherlands, the largest number ever, while only 92,000 immigrated in. This emigration figure is the highest figure in the entire history of the country so far. The Netherlands is today also the European nation with the highest proportion of emigrants. Since 2003 more people have been leaving the country than entering it. The numbers are rising. In the first quarter of this year 29,000 people left the Netherlands – 5,000 more than in the same period last year. Now Ayaan Hirsi Ali is leaving too. The bell tolls for the Dutch, and those who do not hear it must be deaf.

July 7, 2006 update: In 2004, Germans for the first time in recent history departed Germany more than they moved to it, reports Die Welt in "Die Deutschen sind überall gern gesehene Einwanderer." The online version lacks the graph in the print version, but I happened to be in Germany today and have scanned it in.

July 27, 2006 update: The largest number of French Jews – 650 in one day – since 1970 arrived to a festive reception in Israel, complete with the prime minister and lavish ceremonies. They emigrated despite the two-front war Israel is currently fighting. The total number of immigrants from France totals more than 3,500, the highest in 35 years. Last year, their number reached only 3,005, which in turn was 25 percent more than the year before.

Nevermind the faux European pride that has been propped up so long by a smug sense of superiority resting on anti-americanism. The real question about Europe's future is how long it will take for the booming muslim population to reach critical mass. Because when critical mass happens, muslims in Europe will insist upon Sharia law. And when Sharia law happens, dhimmitude for native Europeans with all that implies, is inevitable. If any indigenous Europeans are then left in Europe, who refuse to convert to Islam, they will observe the dying of the light--but nothing they choose to do then will hold back the darkness.

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10 April 2006

International Immigration vs. Emigration: Voting with their Feet

Often an image can explain more than words. In the image above, the size of the country is adjusted for the level of immigration, or inflow of migrants.

The image below adjusts the country size for the level of emigration, or migrant outflow. This is a situation where people vote with their feet.

Images are courtesy of Worldmapper, "the world as you have never seen it before."

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