17 April 2011

Young Russians Fleeing a Sinking Ship

Scared, fed up and feeling disenfranchised, many successful Russians are investing in citizenship in Western countries, according to consultants who have made a business of facilitating such emigration.

"It seems that the whole generation of 25- to 45-year-old Russians is actively thinking about running away, especially considering the prospect of seeing the same people in power for another 12 years, starting 2012. All dinner conversations tend to finish with this subject," said the general director of a multibillion-dollar multinational company in Russia, who asked not to be identified because of the blunt nature of his comments. _MoscowTimes
In our People Risk study, we found that Russia currently has the highest brain drain risk compared to the other three countries (see Figure 2). The issue of an ageing population is also an important factor for companies to consider as it can, and will, impact the company's workforce planning and costs in the future. Russia poses the highest risk of an ageing population, with close to 18% of its population above the age of 60, as compared to Brazil (9.9%), India (7.4%) and China (11.9%). _aon.com
Al Fin has been told by several readers that he is too hard on Russia. But compared to many young modern Russians, Al Fin's criticisms are quite mild.
In recent times, the posting of one blogger, who has left Russia, is popular in the Russian segment of the internet.

He, in particular, writes: «Russia is an evil, moreover – of a worldwide scale. Evil must be annihilated. Consequently, everything that is directed against Russia is a good.

…In general, to emigrate is much easier than this seems from Russia. To get a tourist visa now is not a problem, a residence permit – of course, is more complex, but here too there are different paths. As an example, if there are no provable grounds to ask for the status of a refugee – one can get a work visa to Australia or Canada; there, unlike in the USA, they give it automatically, if you gather the necessary quantity of points, given by profession (from a rather large list), education, knowledge of the language, age (the younger, the better), etc. Of course, nobody’s waiting for us anywhere with open arms, certain difficulties, especially at the start, will have to be overcome everywhere. But what is being spoken of is not getting into paradise. What is being spoken of is breaking out of hell. From a hell that in the foreseeable prospect is going to be getting ever worse and worse. By the way, a country and a people consistently standing up on the side of evil don’t deserve anything else.

I still don’t know how my own personal destiny will turn out, will they give me asylum in the USA or will I have to look for another country for myself. I know one thing – I will not return to Russia in any event…» _EurasiaReview
The situation inside Russia can be very bleak for the young, bright, and ambitious.
As chief of the migration laboratory at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Zhanna A. Zayonchkovskaya has studied previous waves of emigration, including in the 1990s, when as many as 6 million people left. But her desire to research this one puts her up against the wall others are confronting.

“Brain drain is a very urgent topic now,” she said. “We would like to study it, but we cannot get the money to do it.”

President Dmitry Medvedev drew attention to the brain drain in October, when two emigre scientists born and educated in Russia won the Nobel physics prize. They work in Britain, where they have attracted a number of other Russian-born scientists.

“We need to make an effort so that our talented people do not go abroad,” Medvedev said, adding that the government had failed to invest sufficiently in research. He has been trying to recruit foreigners to make Russia more competitive. _WaPo
Russia's human infrastructure is crumbling along with its physical and technological infrastructures. Vodka makes Russians feel warm at night, but it is a false warmth with no future.
For many educated young Russians, Western countries seem to have an intractable allure, whether there are more work opportunities, a better educational system, or simply nicer weather. While this last reason may seem trivial, many students are beginning to wonder if the grass is literally greener on the other side.

“Each year, I ask my master’s students where they see themselves three or four years from now,” Moscow State University economics professor Alexander Auzan said at a conference in the Polytechnic Museum this year. “In September 2010 roughly half said they envisaged themselves working abroad: not just anywhere but quite specifically in Germany, Britain, Ireland, or Argentina.” _Indrus.in
Young Russian women may find more paths open to them for emigration, not all of them with happy endings. But for the young who are bright, well trained, and ambitious, the rest of the world holds many possibilities.
For most of the men who stay in Russia, the picture is not very pretty.
RUSSIA is suffering from a serious shortage of men, with a high male mortality rate fuelled by heart disease and alcoholism, The Moscow Times reported today.

Preliminary census results showed that Russia's population dropped by 2.2 million since 2002 to just under 143 million, suggesting the government's efforts to boost the population were not working.

Just 46.3 percent of Russia's population was made up of men, down from 46.6 percent in 2002, the report said.

"Women here live longer," the newspaper quoted demographics researcher Boris Denisov as saying.

Men "do not want to live" in Russia, he added.

Russia has experienced a dramatic drop in population since the fall of the Soviet Union, fueled by alcoholism and unhealthy lifestyles as well as emigration. _HeraldSun.au

Interestingly, Russian women live about ten years longer than Russian men, but retire 5 years earlier at 55. Sadly, most Russian men never live to 60 to enjoy retirement, while retired Russian women have only the vodka to keep them company those long cold winter nights.

No wonder so many young Russians want to leave, to avoid such fates.

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Blogger painlord2k@gmail.com said...

In a recent study about mortality in Russi/USSr (featuren in NextBigFuture) it show that the mortality was growing from the '50.
It is a straight line, interrupted only by the anti-alcohol campaign of Gorbacev. When he fell, the numbers returned to grow faster.

This is the doom of all illiberal places. Slaves don't breed and don't live as much as free people.

Monday, 18 April, 2011  
Blogger ee_ga said...

Well, after taking a look at the average Russian IQ I think it is our best interest to welcome them with open borders. It won't help Russia but it will be great for us. Also the Russian people will know the dangers of socialism and communism having lived it.

Also there is a large Russian immigrant population in Destin FL, they like the weather, and the McDonalds they work at is the definition of fast food. I got my food before I was done paying and it was right, I didn't understand what the women behind the counter were saying, but it didn't hurt their efficiency. Also these women were the most beautiful women I had ever seen working at a McDonalds.

Monday, 18 April, 2011  
Blogger Max said...

I left Russia 10 years ago. I think the nation was destroyed in the first half of 20th century. Majority of best people died in WW1, civil war, emigrated in 1920, died in Stalin's purges and then WW2 was there to top it off

The ethnic russians left are not of the best stock. Brain drain started with emmigration to israel and US in 1980s of Russian jews. When Iron curtain then the rest of russians left

Most young people with at least some brain and ambition continue leaving.

In terms of demographics - russians are being replaced by other ethnicites (mostly caucasians - e.g. - from the mountain of Caucase). Just like in US Russians will become a minority by 2050 or so

I personally do not think such things would matter in next 50 years, as I strongly believe emergence of strong AI will make obsolete the monkey games we are current playing.

Only thing is matters is development of technology - in corrupt Russia its harder to do than in the west (which is corrupt too but in a different ways - in Russia its just plain primitive mafia/robber baron style corruption)

Tuesday, 19 April, 2011  
Blogger Howard Roark said...

Interesting, I have to say this really conflicts with what I thought was the situation in Russia. Basically I thought it was very bad in the 1990s and now things were going much better. I heard Moscow is the richest city in the world. I also heard that Putin is extremely well revered among the Russian people.

Tuesday, 19 April, 2011  
Blogger kurt9 said...

I hear that Russia will become semi-Islamic and that a majority of recruits in the Russian army by 2015 (only four short years away) will be Muslim.

Is this true?

Tuesday, 19 April, 2011  
Blogger al fin said...

Possibly, Kurt. The reason it is possible is due to the differential birthrates involved. Armies need young men, and ethnic Russians are not producing many young men these days, relatively speaking.

Considering the size of the territory that the Russian military must defend, it appears unlikely that a Russia of the 2030s or 2040s will be up to the job, if current trends continue.

Perhaps Russia will choose to sell Siberian land to China, and islands to Japan, in order to plump up some Russian clique's Swiss bank accounts.

When nations such as Russia fall apart in slow motion, almost anything could happen, including an attempt at a "cat's paw" attack on either the US or China, using proxies for deniability.

Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure should also be expected over the next few decades, in lieu of an outright hot war -- which fewer and fewer nations can afford anymore, economically.

Tuesday, 19 April, 2011  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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