New Dark Age Survival: Thinking Long Term

If civilisation is going to collapse, it will not go easily. If it goes, there is a good possibility that many parts of the currently-developed world will suffer quasi-dark age conditions without aid or re-supply, for an extended period -- months, years, perhaps longer.

A lot of people talk about which book or books they would like to have with them, should civilisation collapse. But people who think in those terms are likely to be dead before many weeks have passed. If they have not internalised and practised the necessary skills, the best use for any books may be to use them for either desperate escapism, or as fuel for a fire.

Long Term Survival in the Coming Dark Age by James Ballou gets mixed reviews across the web. First let's look at the review of the book in Survivalblog:

Chapter 3 was worth the price of the book. The Survival Workshop. I could tell that this is the area where Mr. Ballou has experience and expertise. The basic metalworking, riveting and shop set-up ideas are well presented, with less “could-be” or “might be useful” and more “normally very effective”. I like to read “is” instead of “might” when it comes to life-or-death analysis of what I may have to do in a societal collapse. I am not a hobbyist. I really like the idea of making a thread cutting die from a file, or a vise from 2 x 4s. Now those examples are something that could be potentially used in the Dark Ages! This chapter, like quality survival books, really got me thinking. He has a book dedicated to this subject I want to buy.

Chapter 4 is also very good, a review and reminder of the countless things that are thrown away of potential use in a later time when they may not be able to be manufactured on a large scale. Still, it's not survival in the Dark Ages, it's things one can do now, while there are dumpsters to dive. I scavenge in cities I visit. I find this fun and sometimes of financial benefit. I share the writer's inclination to look for wheel weights and other small items in parking lots. This is a skill common in Third World countries. All preparedness-minded people should at least think about routine scavenging. Forget about the image of the homeless degenerate culling for food in a back-alley garbage can like an animal. Be discreet. Dress with durable clothing. I have found climbing rope, drills, hardware, electrical supplies new-in-box among other things too numerous to detail here. I do it while jogging while carrying a cloth shopping bag. I even sometimes wear a silk mask if the dumpster is under surveillance. One has to keep warm, right? Good points are made by Ballou, but this could have been a separate article or included in another book. It's not post-dark-ages survival guidelines.

The rest of the book covers the subjects of fire making, cordage and what trade goods to store. Again, this is very basic information. The Bushcraft skills would be better reviewed by reading Ray Mears. Ragnar Benson also covers trade goods in his writings including the specific need for spare tool handles. No one can argue against the possibility that, in a Dark Age, things like matches and other high tech manufactured items be scarce or unavailable. Ballou directed the reader to more complete, already published works, rather than attempt to re-introduce the entire subject in a few pages. If he has direct experience, maybe just discuss his first-hand problems with bushcraft techniques and his own personal solutions, if any. This is what another important bushcraft writer John McPherson does.

Mr. Ballou has written a pretty good introduction to the world of preparedness with two strong idea-based chapters on survival metalworking and improvisation from found objects. _Survivalblog

The author of the review above had several nits to pick with Ballou, but overall gives the book his qualified recommendation.

Here is another interesting review of Ballou's book from Amazon.com:

I enjoyed the chapter on how to make caches so that supplies can be hidden and recovered years later.

The author takes the basic premiss that life will revert to something like the 1800's, so much of the book describes methods of improvising things like axes, knives, tools, clothes, rope, etc. While the author's homemade tools and clothes are beautifully crafted, I have a hard time imagining myself spending much time forging steel during a survival scenario. Even if all the stores are looted I think our society will have an abundance of remnant knives and axes to last quite a while. For at least a couple of decades I think scavenging will be a more important skill than blacksmithing.

This book is full of interesting skill and project ideas, but it's fragmented. The author has us building forges as if we will be cut off from the remnants of our civilization, but also caching guns, as if rounds or shells and gunpowder will somehow be available. It's somewhat hard to picture the scenario in which all these skills come together.

No one can paint a perfect picture of what survivors will be facing so we never know what skills exactly will be essential, so I will take what I can from this book... _Amazon.com

It is interesting that the two reviewers above both had mixed impressions of the book, and would certainly engage each other in heated argument as to which parts of the book were worthwhile and which were not.

Truth be told, most "book survivalists" who remain merely book survivalists, are probably not going to make it, should TSHTF over an extended period of time. It just depends upon whether they are lucky enough to land in the middle of a community of well-prepared, competent, and generally cooperative persons -- such as a local chapter of the understandably secretive Society for Creative Apocalyptology.

There are lists online which suggest particular tools that might help one to re-start civilisation: 50 Tools and Technologies to Rebuild Civilisation, for example

And then there is the ongoing project to open source the rebuilding of civilisation, called the Global Village Construction Set.

For those willing to dive into technologies such as the Global Village Construction Set, the possible learned competencies would be invaluable in a widespread catastrophe -- when you are without the possibility of outside aid or re-supply.

Your best bet, in such a long term situation, would be to find yourself in a community of dangerous children, born and raised. And if you see the wisdom in such a plan, remember: It is never too late to have a dangerous childhood.

An Apocalypse of Stupidity: One Possible Future

They will tell you that the world will end by nuclear holocaust, or by climate catastrophe. Or perhaps they'll say the world will choke to death on its own pollution, or starve for lack of enough resources to feed an overpopulated planet.

A Slow Apocalypse of Stupidity: Fourmilab

But more likely to seal the fate of humanity, is the slow and steady loss of human problem-solving ability.

Regional Variations in IQ Test Scores

Over tens of thousands of years, separate human breeding populations evolved to meet divergent challenges in their environments (Kanazawa PDF). Some environments presented greater challenges to be solved, for the sake of survival. The farther from the equator a group migrated, the greater the seasonal challenges of survival. As greater intelligence evolved, humans devised sophisticated societies and technologies to shield them from the environment.

But in the course of becoming more intelligent, they created micro-environments of culture, with differential rates of divergent intellectual revolution.

Rates of Population Growth

Not all populations reproduced at the same rates. More affluent, more intelligent, and better educated women chose to reproduce at lower levels -- or not at all -- compared to women of lower educational attainment (on average). Higher birthrates among less intelligent populations began to affect overall average IQ levels.

And since IQ is strongly correlated with level of economic achievement (Gottfredson PDF), societies with lower average IQ levels tended to be the most impoverished societies.

Imagine a World Without Europe or the Anglosphere

Besides economic achievement, scientific and technological achievement tends to accompany high average IQ. Low IQ nations in the map above tend to be very tiny, unless they are lucky enough to have a high IQ smart fraction.

The higher IQ populations which are responsible for the economic, scientific, and technological accomplishments in the map above, are also the populations which are shrinking in size -- while lower IQ populations are growing.

Finally, crime and corruption tend to correlate with low average IQ levels. So that even low IQ populations lucky enough to have a smart fraction, will be less able to efficiently utilise that lucky bit of human capital. Homicide per 100,000

There is no reason to expect the differential birthrates between the different strata of IQ and education, to change. The global decline in average IQ seen in the graph above, is likely to continue unless something significant happens to change the trend.

Many people are aware of the trend, but no one has a good answer for it. Good people may well think the answer may be found thru better education:

While the smart people know they must fight the tyrannical government or run away to another country, the not so smart grow in numbers. In our current state, we will not be able to hold government accountable and put a stop to the tyranny. We must overcome the stupid somehow. We must find a method to show them the folly of their ways. We must “educate” them on what their responsibilities are in society and we must show them how to exercise those responsibilities properly. _LibertarianViewpoint

But no one really believes that such "education" can be both effective and humane. And since we voluntarily limit ourselves to humane methods, we must admit that we will have to look for other solutions.

Here is an analogy: Realistic energy analysts generally accept that humans should use unconventional oil, gas, and liquids as temporary "bridge" fuels to better forms of power and energy such as advanced nuclear power. In other words, we must make good use of the next few decades to develop long term energy solutions that will last for many thousands of years.

In the same way, realistic students of the human future understand that brighter people must make very good use of the next few decades to develop bridge technologies which will see us past the approaching dysgenic bottleneck.

First, we must take the trouble to understand that the problem is real.

Genetics, Genes, Genomics, and g (Plomin PDF) _via Meng hus blog

g: Highly General and Highly Practical (Gottfredson PDF)

We must understand how differences in average intelligence between population groups influence quality of life issues such as crime, affluence, social trust, levels of corruption, etc. Such an understanding is likely to influence important life choices.

And we must be able to project current trends -- often contradictory trends -- into the near future. Then we must devise ways of best dealing with our conclusions for our own sake, and for the sake of our dependents.

Stuxnet Heralds a Brave New World of Sophisticated Weaponry

Natanz Nuclear Enrichment Defense Iran Stuxnet appears to have been developed in the US and refined in Israel, before being introduced into Iranian computers by shadowy import-export companies. More from Wired:

Suddenly, over a six-month period beginning late 2009, U.N. officials monitoring the surveillance images “watched in amazement” as Iranian workers “dismantled more than 10 percent of the plant’s 9,000 centrifuge machines used to enrich uranium,” according to the Washington Post. “Then, just as remarkably, hundreds of new machines arrived at the plant to replace the ones that were lost.”

Investigators described the effort as a feverish attempt to contain damage and replace broken parts, suggesting the centrifuges had indeed been operational when they broke....One other piece of information suggests Iran’s nuclear program was the target of Natanz. Last week security firm Symantec released a report revealing that the Stuxnet attack targeted five organizations in Iran that were infected first in an effort to spread the malware to Natanz.

Because Natanz’s PLCs are not connected to the internet, the best hope of attacking them – short of planting a mole inside Natanz – was infecting other computers that could serve as a gateway to the Natanz PLC. For example, infecting computers belonging to a contractor in charge of installing software at Natanz could help get the malware onto the Natanz system.

Symantec said the companies were hit in attacks in June and July 2009 and in March, April and May 2010. Symantec didn’t name the five organizations but said that they all “have a presence in Iran” and are involved in industrial processes._Wired

No one will shed tears for the Iranian nuclear weapons program, nor for the international companies which are illegally aiding the Iranians. But this attack is just the tip of the iceberg, and a mere suggestion of the wave of more sophisticated forms of sabotage, espionage, and covert warfare which is on the way.

Targeted acts of sabotage disrupt, but the real pay-off comes from identifying the human and technical links in the chain of command. Observing who responds – and when – to worm-driven destruction helps illuminate who really runs Iran’s nuclear infrastructures. Real-world Iranian responses offer critical clues as to which scientists, administrators and engineers are trusted and who is suspect. The chance to monitor Iran’s response would be of great interest to Mossad, the International Atomic Energy Agency, America’s CIA and/or Britain’s GCHQ.

Crafting a worm that generates potential insight into all those issues represents an intelligence coup. It is as potentially revelatory as a WikiLeaks data dump. That is why interpreting Stuxnet as desperate stop-gap or one-off intervention almost certainly misunderstands its purpose. Sabotage here is a means to an end; it is a gambit to make Iran’s nuclear processes more transparent.

Iran’s nuclear elite and Ministry of Intelligence know this. It is no secret now to the mullahs that their responses to the Stuxnet breach were closely monitored by external intelligence agencies. Their internal security is furiously trying to assess what information might have inadvertently been revealed. _FT

Stuxnet's sophistication is considered to be unprecedented. But from now on, Stuxnet will be the benchmark against which future spyware and malware will be gauged.

Mr Salem [of Symantec] said new technology and new approaches are needed.

"I run the largest security company in the world. I get up and people say I have a vested interest (in pushing this line). But my job is to protect and provide security and when we say critical infrastructure is under attack, it is real."

Mr Salem mapped out a number of strategic steps that need to be taken to guard against the next major cyber attack. They include an early warning system, better intelligence on what attacks could happen, better protection, the ability to anticipate what any threat could look like and the ability to clean up after an attack.

He also pointed to a role for government that might involve a counter attack or strike.

The idea of a kill switch to allow the government to switch off the internet if it is under attack is one he did not seem overly enthusiastic about.

"The ability for us to turn something off like that and not cause other massive disruption would be very hard. We are becoming more and more dependent on the internet. There are better approaches than trying to shut off the internet. _BBC

This growing dependency on the internet can be seen at all levels of every society in the advanced world. It represents a growing vulnerability -- given the revelation of what malware like Stuxnet can do -- and needs to be addressed now, before societies move to depend upon an even more vulnerable "smart grid" power system. We should not make it easy for malicious outsiders to turn out our lights.

The threat is real, and the threat is now. The US government is one salient target, with large corporations and city/state governments also being notable targets.

More than 100 foreign intelligence agencies have tried to breach United States defence networks, largely to steal military plans and weapons systems designs, a top Pentagon official said. _NZHerald

Consequently, the US Pentagon is seeking half a billion US dollars to develop new cyber technologies -- including powerful new defenses to guard agains the powerful new cyber-attack threats.

The $500 million is part of the Pentagon’s 2012 budget request of $2.3 billion to improve the Defense Department’s cyber capabilities. At a Pentagon news conference yesterday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates called the research money, to be spent through the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa, “big investment dollars, looking to the future.”

The military is reaching out to commercial companies for the latest technologies and technical experts to safeguard the Pentagon’s computer networks from attacks and espionage, Lynn said. The effort is part of a “comprehensive cyber strategy called Cyber 3.0,” he said. _Bloomberg

The djinn is long out of the bottle, wreaking havoc on uranium enrichment centrifuge cyber systems. Similar djinns will soon fly out, based upon similar advanced cyber technology, with wider mission profiles and less selective targeting.

But regular readers of Al Fin blogs will understand that this cyber threat -- for all its potential for disruption and destruction -- is only the visible and more imaginable problem. More creative and malicious destructors are on the way, as advanced sciences and technology merge with unimaginably sophisticated hardware and software.

This is the start of the long war, which may either result in humans sinking to a pre-technological level for hundreds or thousands of years, or in humans transcending their monkey natures on the way to the wide-open next level. Watch and see.

Excerpted from an article at abu al-fin

Stay up to date on the hidden war of cyber attack at Infowar.com

For the military side of things, stay current with StrategyPage.com

One of the deepest threats will come from "nano guns, nano germs, and nano steel".

It is not unreasonable to assume that a computer virus sent from across the world could program the assembly of a deadly human virus inside an unsecured university research lab located inside a friendly country. Tight connections to the internet by conventional research DNA and RNA (and protein) assembling equipment, will allow such stealth long-range hybrid cyber/bio warfare.

The same approach could lead to the programming of deadly stealth nanoweapons, and even macro-weapons, utilising 3-D printing devices connected to the net.

If you can imagine it, so can someone else with more malignant intent. Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

That's Kim Jong Il's Night Light -- He's Afraid of the Dark

All lights went out in North Korea for Earth Hour, except for one.  In the Presidential Palace, Kim Jong Il refused to turn off his bedroom night light.  He has always been afraid of the dark, ever since his father Kim Il Sung used to come into his bedroom when he was only a small boy, pretending to be a monster.  Well, sure, Kim Sr. did not need to pretend, but you know what I mean.

South Korea was not nearly so compliant, as you can see.  Perhaps this is why North Korea has taken to shooting torpedos at South Korean naval vessels -- the South's lack of environmental awareness.

Soon, if Obama y Pelosi have their way, the entire world will be every bit as environmentally conscientious as North Korea.  And not just on Earth Hour, but every hour of every day of every year.  No night lights allowed, either, not even for you, Kim.

Society for Creative Apocalyptology Looks at Deep Science Research Facility in Homestake Mine

Image SourceAlmost a mile deep, under the Black Hills of South Dakota, the US government is building the world's deepest underground scientific hidey-hole. The groundbreaking for the facility was attended by politicians, connected individuals, and scientists who may eventually work in one of the labs to be built deep underground.

The new labs will be built in and around the old Homestake Gold Mine, which extends as deeply as 8,000 feet underground. The gold mine was shut down in 2001 and allowed to flood when pumps were shut down. Refurbishing of the mine will involve restoring the pumps, refurbishing and stabilising tunnels, and building new underground infrastructure for scientific and other purposes.

The ostensible purpose of the deep new facility is to study dark matter in a location that is deep enough to be shielded from cosmic rays. But can you think of any other reasons for building such a deep, remote, high technology facility? And how many politicians are more interested in dark matter than in confiscating as much wealth from taxpayers and anyone else, as they can?

The new scientific lab complex is expected to span a wide array of experimental sciences, as the refurbishers develop new methods of deep underground architecture.

Analysts at the Society for Creative Apocalyptology © have looked at the plans for the new underground lab, and concluded that it would make an ideal university / scientific complex to survive the next apocalypse -- whatever the cause.

When the axe falls on civilisation, human societies in the western world will fragment by religion, ethnicity, language, and the luck of the draw. If you find yourself living in a bad neighborhood when the doom comes down, you had better have some very good extraction plans already set in place, and well-rehearsed.

The electrical grid will go down fairly quickly, since it is unlikely that many utility managers will have had to foresight to disconnect their sections of the grid to prevent cascading failures. Manpower shortages at all high technology installations would grow acute quite quickly. Universities, high tech labs and research centers, and other high tech facilities would quickly fall to the momentum of collapse, and be looted and stripped beyond repair.

That is why a facility such as the one in South Dakota is so important in the re-start of civilisation -- after the fall. A location where top scientists and technologists across a wide range of human scientific and technological skills can continue to advance their studies while the rest of the world is falling down around them. Then, when the momentum of collapse dies down and the pressure from the doom inciting event(s) has subsided, advance teams of scouts can move out of the enclave to survey the damages and the potential for re-emergence.

A schedule for the re-introduction of technology can be devised and implemented by advance teams of skilled workers, as likely surviving population centers are located. As surviving, rejuvenated population centers are re-connected, a new larger society can be regrown.

But you will not read about these plans in conventional journals, papers, or blogs. And the SCA agrees that popular knowledge of such generative / regenerative knowledge centers would be counter-productive. Of course, what the government is attempting in South Dakota (and what the UK is attempting in Scotland etc.) is nothing more than a tax-supported version of what the SCA has been working on all along, using private funding.


H/T ImpactLab

All Zombies Now

MIT researchers have genetically programmed specific types of cells -- fast spiking interneurons -- in mouse brains to respond to pulses of laser light. The researchers can expose these cells to laser pulses at specific frequencies, causing the cells to produce gamma oscillations.

Gamma waves are fast, high-frequency, rhythmic brain responses that have been shown to spike when higher cognitive processes are engaged. Research in adults and animals suggests that lower levels of gamma power might hinder the brain's ability to efficiently package information into coherent images, thoughts and memories. _Source

The MIT researchers can cause the mouse brains to produce gamma waves "on demand", allowing for much easier study of the phenomenon in animal models of perception, memory, and even "conceptualisation."

The trick for inducing gamma waves was the selective activation of the "fast-spiking" interneurons, named for their characteristic pattern of electrical activity. When these cells were driven with high frequency laser pulses, the illuminated region of cortex started to produce gamma oscillations. "We've shown for the first time that it is possible to induce a specific brain state by activating a specific cell type" says co-author Christopher Moore, associate professor of neuroscience and an investigator in the McGovern Institute. In contrast, no gamma oscillations were induced when the fast-spiking interneurons were activated at low frequencies, or when a different class of neurons was activated.

The authors further showed that these brain rhythms regulate the processing of sensory signals. They found that the brain's response to a tactile stimulus was greater or smaller depending on exactly where the stimulus occurred within the oscillation cycle. "It supports the idea that these synchronous oscillations are important for controlling how we perceive stimuli," says Moore. "Gamma rhythms might serve to make a sound louder, or a visual input brighter, all based on how these patterns regulate brain circuits." _MIT

This merging of expertise from molecular genetics and neuroscience, permitted the production of specially designed mice whose brain activity could be controlled by laser -- to a certain extent -- for study of gamma waves.

Before long, it should be possible to genetically program the brains of humans to respond to certain environmental cues -- light, ultrasound, microwave etc. -- to control behaviours in far more sophisticated ways. The ability to influence gamma waves alone should be sufficient to influence normal perception, conceptualisation, and coherent thought. In other words, persons whose brains were programmed to respond to pulsed energy could be made to appear schizophrenic, or could have their short-term memories blocked at specific times. And a lot more besides.

If you want to be able to force persons to think specific thoughts, or believe particular assertions, you would need to use a sophisticated form of conditioning from behavioural psychology. In fact, these newer tools of "brain control" might very well bring about a startling renaissance in behavioural studies in certain research labs that accept government funding.

The combination of bio-nanotechnology, molecular genetics, stem cell technology, neuroscience, and some even more surprising technologies in cell and molecular biology, are opening the doors of perception and deception wider than ever. Can these technologies be used to accomplish good things? Of course they can and of course they will. But there is always a dark side to every discovery.

But think of this timely application: Who would need to torture someone to divulge information, when they could re-program the person's motivational structure -- leaving his memories intact for voluntary extraction.

Of course, if you were the sort of politician who looks at masses of people, and sees only zombies to be recruited into your personality cult and private army of adulation, this technology might have application to your needs as well.

All zombies now.

More information on MIT study, along with another study from Stanford with parallel findings

Update on the Swiss Blue Brain project (via TechNutNews)

Yellowstone, Ice Age, Obama Dark Ages

Yellowstone National Park is volcanic in nature, yet not one cone or caldera is visible. In the 1960s, this mystery was finally solved: The entire park -- 2.2 million acres -- is the caldera. It's the largest active supervolcano on Earth. Yellowstone started erupting about 17 million years ago, and it has a cycle of erupting roughly every 600,000 years. The last eruption was 630,000 years ago, so it's about 30,000 years past due on the next big one. _TheStreet_via_ValueInvesting_via_SimoleonSense

When Yellowstone supervolcano next erupts, "it's unlikely any humans within 700 miles of the park would survive. An area the size of New York State would have ash 67 feet deep. The aftermath probably would be worse, with no sunlight for years throughout the planet and much farmland rendered useless under mountains of ash." We know it will happen, we simply do not know when.

The same is true for the next ice age. We are currently roughly 12,000 years into the current inter-glacial period. Since inter-glacials typically last from 10,000 years to 25,000 years, we are either overdue for the next ice age (glaciation) or we have a bit of natural warming yet to experience before the next deadly age of ice descends. Science does not know, either way.

A global economy is a complex system, like the climate. Largely unpredictable, generally tolerant up to a point, the global economy will eventually shock even the most complacent economist, politician, or investor. The current global economic backlash should be taken as a warning to those responsible for national economies: "Clean up your act or suffer the consequences!"

China may be listening, Angela Merkel of Germany seems to be listening. But Putin is not, Obama is not, Kevin Rudd is not, Ahmedinejad is not. All of the clowns who are ignoring the impending eruption of this economic Mt. Doom were elected, after a fashion. Each has his own reasons for ignoring the warning signs and proceeding through the caution tape. Each country being led by these bozos will pay a severe penalty for the failure to heed the caution signals.

Look, globalization has created this interlocking fragility. At no time in the history of the universe has the cancellation of a Christmas order in New York meant layoffs in China. So for a while it created the illusion of stability, but it has created this devastating Black Swan.

Complex systems do not like debt. So it will proceed to destroy tens of trillions in debt until society rebuilds itself in an ultraconservative manner. We are in for a worse ride than people think.

People have the problem of denial. This is one of the things I learned in Lebanon. Everybody who left Beirut when the war started, including my parents, said, 'Oh, its temporary.' It lasted 17 years! People tend to underestimate the gravity of these situations. That's how they work.

Is this crisis going to last 17 years?

Unfortunately no, complex systems cascade much faster than that. However, the destruction will be deeper than people anticipate. It will bring down a lot of people.

My rosy scenario is that a better economic environment will develop, a low-debt, robust growth world, in which whatever is fragile will be allowed to break early and not late. _NicholasTalebWaPo_via_SimoleonSense

But Mr. Obama's plan is different from that of Mr. Taleb. Rather than aiming toward a better economic environment and a robust growth world, Mr. Obama is aiming toward a world of "de-development."

...scarcity politics seeks to slow and even reverse material progress through what President Obama's science adviser, John Holdren, calls "de-development."

"De-development"--that is, the retreat from economic growth--includes some sensible notions about conservation but takes them to unreasonable, socially devastating and politically unpalatable extremes. The agenda, for example, includes an opposition to population growth, limits on material consumption and a radical redistribution of wealth both nationally and to the developing world. _Forbes

The Obama club is the same club as the climate catastrophe club: the de-development club. Science is not involved, except to be twisted and exploited toward political ends. Never let a crisis go un-exploited. Mr. Obama's reasons for making a bad situation infinitely worse are his own.

The rest of the international bozo club also have their own individual reasons for ripping the guts out of the human future. Putin is out for the glory of greater Russia. Ahmedinejad is paving the way for the 12th imam. Rudd is another leftist zomboid with delusions of saving the Earth through correct ideology. Every bozo has his reasons.

Infrastructure Breakdown? I'll Show You An Entire Continent w/ Infrastructure Breakdown

Power failures are sweeping across post-colonial Africa, from South Africa to Zambia to Zimbabwe and beyond. The entire power grid of the Central African Republic has gone down from lack of maintenance.

Over half a century of poor maintenance and neglect, the power grid of the Central African Republic has collapsed. The capital has gone dark. Two nearby hydroelectric power stations, which provide most of the nation's electricity, have failed from years of neglect. The government is calling on foreign aid donors to fly in generators for hospitals and other essential services. Generators that have been brought in previously have not been maintained, and wear out quickly. This is not an exceptional event, for colonial era infrastructure, from roads to power plants, are collapsing from decades of post-independence neglect. This causes more unrest, as factions battle for a dwindling supply of resources.

This is an unfortunate but commonplace situation for much of Africa. Through corruption, poor planning, and non-existent maintenance, power grids across Africa are overloading and failing.

Sub-Saharan Africa is suited to a more decentralised approach to power. With small, decentralised power plants, infrastructure breakdowns only affect limited areas--not the entire country. Maintenance of a high technology infrastructure is beyond large portions of the third world--including most of Subsaharan Africa. The same problem crops up in tribal areas of Asia and South America, but is not quite as bad. Unfortunately, urbanisation is sweeping across most parts of the world, bringing the need for central power generation stations and power grids. It may be an insoluble problem.

Maintenance technicians and supervisors for the repair and upkeep of sophisticated power systems, need to be both intelligent and experienced. In much of the third world, such jobs are often given out as political rewards to cronies of powerful government officials. Maintenance is regarded in the third world with much the same disdain that many college educated persons in the west regard skilled manual labour. Maintenance funds are either not allocated, or are skimmed away by government bureaucrats. In the third world, maintenance just doesn't get done. And systems inevitably fail.

It would be bad enough just dealing with corruption, poor planning, lack of maintenance, and general neglect. But the third world often has to deal with rampant violence created by "youth bulge demographics." This is the fatal blow to infrastructure and national integrity.

Why is so much of the third world going backwards, so long after de-colonisation? Something similar happened in Europe after the fall of the Roman Empire, during the Dark Ages. But Europe was actually re-organising and re-tooling for a more complex world. A lot of things that happened during the European "Dark Ages" were not so dark at all. Africa seems to be doing the opposite.

Foreign aid projects, NGO projects, UN projects, etc. seem to do as much good in Africa as they do in Gaza and the West Bank. The resources simply get swallowed up and disappear.

It is said that a high technology infrastructure is impossible to maintain when the average IQ of a population is below 85 (in the absence of a significant market dominant minority). The average IQ of SubSaharan Africa consistently measures close to 70, or 75 at most. IQ is not enough, of course. In China, where corruption is rampant, infrastructure collapse can happen too. In Detroit, where city government corruption is a way of life, maintaining the infrastructure is a daily battle.

But if you have both low IQ and corruption--with no market dominant minority--forget about it. It is not going to happen. Build as much as you want, it will surely crumble without maintenance.

Perhaps improved nutrition and education will shift the IQ curve upward by as much as 10 points. After 2 or 3 more generations. Should the intervention be done? Of course! Grandchildren and great-granchildren of today's Africans may benefit.

But understand that technologies should be matched to the population being served. Anything else on the part of aid providers is criminal.

Europe's Problems: No Rescue Likely This Time

Image Source

Europe's problems continue to grow, and this time it is unlikely that Europe will be rescued by any outside party. The best to be hoped, perhaps, is that Europe will not start any more continent-wide wars--hot or cold, trade wars or real wars. Europe needs to begin cleaning up the mess she has made before things truly go downhill. First, the demographic time bomb--a large portion of which is the exploding populations of intolerant, potentially violent Muslim immigrants.

* Discrimination against other religions (with special emphasis on the rising European phenomenon of Islamic anti-Semitism), outlooks (inc. atheism) and lifestyles;
* Discrimination and violence against women (esp. wives and “disobedient” daughters);
* Discrimination and violence against homosexuals;
* Threats of violence in any form and for whatever alleged “offense” or “insult” (e.g. drawing cartoons, making documentaries, writing books);
* Apology or justification for all of the above.

It is essential to focus on the despicable acts themselves, and then drawing the direct line to the commands of Islam’s scripture and its founder __Source

Economic problems--especially a coming loss of purchasing power and productivity--also sit dark and heavy on the landscape.

Across Europe, people in the middle layer of the labor force - from office workers, civil servants and skilled laborers to low-level managers - are coping with a growing sense that they are being pushed to the margins like never before, as a combination of rising costs and stagnant wages erodes their purchasing power.

Prices for basic goods from gas to milk are rising sharply, outpacing pay rises linked to official rates of inflation. Families that once maintained pleasant lifestyles afforded by two incomes find the rise in costs - which have accelerated worldwide in the past year - has pushed them to the tipping point. __Source

Problems of stagflation are striking families all across Europe:

“When I started working at 23, I earned almost the same wage that I earn now,” said María Salgado, a 37-year-old director of television documentaries living in Madrid. Fourteen years ago, her monthly salary of about 1,200 euros ($1,873), bankrolled a full social life.

No longer. “The well-to-do middle class has become the tight middle class,” she said. “I’m surprised we haven’t started a revolution.”

... “I look at people on the bus and they seem sad and beaten down,” said Ms. Di Pietro, referring to Italy’s malaise. “We’re 40 years old. We should be feeling more combative, but really all we feel is frustrated.”

Some European governments are promising relief, but their ability to curb inflation or raise pay is limited. __Source

And so the Europeans who can read the tea leaves, are choosing emigration more and more.

The number of emigrants leaving the Netherlands and Germany has already surpassed the number of immigrants moving in. One does not have to be prophetic to predict, like Henryk Broder, that Europe is becoming Islamic. Just consider the demographics. The number of Muslims in contemporary Europe is estimated to be 50 million. It is expected to double in twenty years. By 2025, one third of all European children will be born to Muslim families. Today Mohammed is already the most popular name for new-born boys in Brussels, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and other major European cities.

...Some of the people I meet in the U.S. are particularly worried about the rise of anti-Semitism in Europe. They are correct when they fear that anti-Semitism is also on the rise among non-immigrant Europeans. The latter hate people with a fighting spirit. Contemporary anti-Semitism in Europe (at least when coming from native Europeans) is related to anti-Americanism. People who are not prepared to resist and are eager to submit, hate others who do not want to submit and are prepared to fight. They hate them because they are afraid that the latter will endanger their lives as well. In their view everyone must submit. __Source

But they are that way because this is what they have been taught. All their friends think and talk the same, they are living in an echo chamber. Reality is soon to come crashing down upon their heads, all the same.

For most people living in North America and the extended Anglosphere, Europe is the source of their ancestors. Europe is the natural ally for North America, and has been throughout much of the past century. Many North Americans have died to ensure the freedom of Europe from tyrannies of several stripes.

In the long run, Europe should remain a natural ally for the Anglosphere. It will be necessary for a more sustainable stance toward third world immigration to be adopted--to prevent the almost inevitable deluge of religious violence sweeping toward Europe from Muslim lands. It will be necessary for Europeans to find better sources for a future work force than they have found recently--either breed them or entice them in. Europe will have to take a more realistic attitude toward her own defense. She cannot rely on old, despised allies indefinitely in that regard.

If Europe fails to face her demographic, economic, and security problems, it is unlikely that she can expect outside assistance, this time.

Will the Last European to Leave Europe Please . . . Do Nothing . . .

. . . . because the light, you see, will go out by itself.

Europeans are suffering from an interesting dilemma. They choose not to procreate to replacement value, yet they are heavily dependent upon a social welfare system that requires lots of fresh new taxpaying workers to replace those middle-aged workers so eager to retire. What is worse, many of the most productive and inventive potential taxpayers are packing up and leaving for other countries--as are some of the most productive businesses and employers.

This updated webpage tries to keep up with some of the reasons for the outflow from Europe:

Escaping the stress of clogged roads, street violence and loss of faith in Holland's once celebrated way of life, the Dutch middle classes are leaving the country in droves for the first time in living memory. The new wave of educated migrants are quietly voting with their feet against a multicultural experiment long touted as a model for the world, but increasingly a warning of how good intentions can go wrong. Australia, Canada and New Zealand are the pin-up countries for those craving the great outdoors and old-fashioned civility. …

More people left the Netherlands in 2003 than arrived, ending a half-century cycle of surging immigration that has turned a tight-knit Nordic tribe into a multi-ethnic mosaic with three million people of foreign roots out of 16 million. Almost one million are Muslims, mostly Turks and Moroccan-Berbers. In Rotterdam, 47 per cent of the city's population is of foreign origin. While asylum claims have plunged, the exodus is accelerating, reaching 13,313 net outflow in the first half of 2004. Many retiring workers are moving to the south of France, but a growing bloc leaving the country appears to be educated, working families. …

Unlike most earlier waves of migration to the new world, this one is not driven by penury. The Netherlands has a per capita income higher than Germany or Britain, and 4.7 per cent unemployment. "None of my clients is leaving for economic reasons. You can't get a visa anyway if you haven't got a work record," said Frans Buysse[, the head of a private immigration consultancy]. Europe's leader for much of the last century in social experiments, Holland may now be pointing to the next cultural revolution: bourgeois exodus.

The Pim Fortuyn and Theo van Gogh murders seem to be the motor force here; and if two murders can spur such a shift in opinion in the Netherlands, clearly similar acts of violence can have a similar effect in other European countries.

Dec. 27, 2004 update: Christopher Caldwell of the Weekly Standard glosses the recent surge in Dutch emigration this way:

London's Daily Telegraph, citing immigration experts and government statistics, reported a net outflow of 13,000 people from Holland in the first six months of 2004, the first such deficit in half a century. One must treat this statistic carefully—it could be an artifact of an aging population in which many are retiring to warmer places. But it could also be the beginning of something resembling the American suburban phenomenon of "white flight," occurring at the level of an entire country

Feb. 12, 2005 update: According to Filip Dewinter, the leader of Vlaams Belang, Belgium's Flemish anti-immigrant party, about 4,000 to 5,000 Flemish residents are leaving Antwerp every year, even as 5,000 to 6,000 non-European immigrants arrive in the city each year. Within ten years, he expects that people of non-European backgrounds will number over one-third of the city's population.

Feb. 14, 2005 update: "More people left Holland in 2003 than arrived," informs the Daily Telegraph in an article on emigration from Holland, "Dutch join the migrant exodus to Australia."

Feb. 27, 2005 update: "More Dutch Plan to Emigrate as Muslim Influx Tips Scales" reads the blunt New York Times headline over a story by Marlise Simons. It recounts how the murder of Theo van Gogh led to an emigration specialist being "inundated" with messages. "There was a big panic, a flood of people saying they wanted to leave the country." An agency that handles paperwork for departing Dutch was had four times the normal rate of contacts following the murder. Those leaving tell of a general pessimism about their country and about the social tensions that accompanied the waves of mostly Muslim immigrants. The emigrants tend to leave for Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Diplomats from those three countries confirmed the interest, saying they had been "swamped" with inquiries. The reporter notes statistics pointing to "a quickening flight of the white middle class." In 1999, nearly 30,000 native Dutch moved elsewhere, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. For 2004, the provisional figure is close to 40,000. "It's definitely been picking up in the past five years," said a demographer working at the bureau.

March 3, 2005 update: Ha'aretz reports today on a survey that finds "60,000 French Jews want to move to Israel." Arik Cohen of Bar-Ilan University reached this conclusion by giving questionnaires to the 125,000 French Jewish tourists who visited Israel in the summer of 2004. Of this huge sample, 52 percent said they see their future in Israel. Half of those aged 15-18 said they had personally experienced instances of anti-Semitism in the past four years. A third of the youth said they are considering immigration to Israel in the near future. The findings were presented at a press conference in Jerusalem inaugurating AMI, an organization of French Jewry for increasing Jewish immigration from France.

May 4, 2005 update: Radio Nederlands informs us that in 1999, nearly 30,000 native Dutch emigrated and in 2004, that figure had gone up to nearly 50,000. These are not just any emigrants but, as the director of a migration consultancy bureau in Amsterdam, Grant King, notes, "Most of our applicants are in high-paying, good, solid positions here - they are not the unemployed. They are mostly middle-class Dutch people with college or university degrees. … The problem for the Netherlands is that the ones that they don't want to lose are the ones that are leaving."

Henri Beunders, professor of history, media and culture at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, notes the role of the Theo van Gogh murder: "The assassin of Theo van Gogh released not only anger but a lot of fear of fanatic Muslims and random violence. It was new for Dutch people to feel physical insecurity, because we are living in a very small country where you can come across anybody." One emigration consultant, Frans Buysse, received four times the usual level of hits on his website in the weeks after the killing of van Gogh.

Asked if the Dutch government should worry about this emgiration, Beunders says no, that immigrants to the Netherlands will replace the Dutch who leave. He concedes only that "It will make things a bit more complicated because you have to integrate an even greater number of foreigners into your own country, with all the very complicated regulation systems we have in this country." He also wants to see benefit in this exchange: "Growing mobility, on the other hand, is also a good sign of the growing unification of Europe and understanding of people - I hope." In like spirit, the radio reporter, Sarah Johnson, speculates that "Europe's pioneer for much of the last century in social experiments, it seems the Netherlands may now be pointing to the next cultural revolution: the bourgeois exodus." Source.

Other problems include the lack of seriousness toward crime that some European countries exhibit. I suspect that the sense that Europe is a poorly defended, poorly administered high priced dead-end retirement home, being taken over by a violent, alien culture, causes some young and ambitious Europeans with good prospects to consider emigrating.

May 29, 2006 update: The invaluable Paul Belien concludes his article, "For Whom the Bell Tolls," in the Brussels Journal bitterly noting that, "Last year Hirsi Ali was elected ‘European of the Year.' It is a bad omen for Europe when the ‘European of the Year' leaves for America." He continues with the observation that many other Dutch do not seem to have much confidence in their country's chances of survival. Last year a record number of 121,000 people emigrated from the Netherlands, the largest number ever, while only 92,000 immigrated in. This emigration figure is the highest figure in the entire history of the country so far. The Netherlands is today also the European nation with the highest proportion of emigrants. Since 2003 more people have been leaving the country than entering it. The numbers are rising. In the first quarter of this year 29,000 people left the Netherlands – 5,000 more than in the same period last year. Now Ayaan Hirsi Ali is leaving too. The bell tolls for the Dutch, and those who do not hear it must be deaf.

July 7, 2006 update: In 2004, Germans for the first time in recent history departed Germany more than they moved to it, reports Die Welt in "Die Deutschen sind überall gern gesehene Einwanderer." The online version lacks the graph in the print version, but I happened to be in Germany today and have scanned it in.

July 27, 2006 update: The largest number of French Jews – 650 in one day – since 1970 arrived to a festive reception in Israel, complete with the prime minister and lavish ceremonies. They emigrated despite the two-front war Israel is currently fighting. The total number of immigrants from France totals more than 3,500, the highest in 35 years. Last year, their number reached only 3,005, which in turn was 25 percent more than the year before.

Source.

Nevermind the faux European pride that has been propped up so long by a smug sense of superiority resting on anti-americanism. The real question about Europe's future is how long it will take for the booming muslim population to reach critical mass. Because when critical mass happens, muslims in Europe will insist upon Sharia law. And when Sharia law happens, dhimmitude for native Europeans with all that implies, is inevitable. If any indigenous Europeans are then left in Europe, who refuse to convert to Islam, they will observe the dying of the light--but nothing they choose to do then will hold back the darkness.