Brain Drain vs. Womb Drain: Which Will Deplete Russia First?

Russia is vast and rich, with abundant resources -- both human and natural. Russia should not be in decline. And yet, the bear's life blood is seeping out, as its best young men and women look abroad to escape the growing despair and futility.

Russia's ongoing demographic crisis affects the dying bear in many ways. More.

Not only is Russia suffering a "brain drain," it is also suffering a "womb drain" -- a steady out-migration of its fertile young women.

One aspect of the Russian womb drain is the Russian Bride phenomenon. Every year, thousands of young Russian women go through official emigration channels in order to escape the dead-end of modern Russia.

A darker aspect of Russia's womb drain is the steady out-flow of young Russian women looking for jobs as models and actresses -- but who end up as "hostesses," escorts, strippers, lap-dancers, and prostitutes in clubs and dives around the world.

In 1994–2009, according to the official data, Russia was left by nearly 900,000 women—because of an intensive female emigration, stimulated by various employment agencies abroad. A considerable part of the women, on the pretext of helping to find a well-paid job abroad, was criminally involved in the sex industry and other illegal activity

It is reasonable to assume that the real number of women emigrated from Russia is 1.5–2 times greater than the official data.

The reproductive losses caused by female emigration from Russia are indirectly estimated at 833,000 children that will not be born in the nearest 5 years. [15] _Demographia.ru

Russia's demographic decline has spawned a number of creative "solutions." One Russian feminist, author, and TV personality has proposed a large scale importation of young men from India, to serve as husbands for young Russian women.

Indian bridegrooms can help ward off a Chinese demographic invasion in Russia, says the feminist: “If we do not balance off the Chinese with Indians, Africans or aliens, by 2050 China will annex Russia’s Siberia up to the Ural Mountains.” _The Hindu

This sad portrait of Russian demographics from 2002, was thought to have been made obsolete by Vladimir Putin's bold new approach to governance. Unfortunately, as this update shows, Russia's decline is not so easily reversed.

High death rates combined with low birth rates have led to an ongoing decline in absolute numbers of ethnic Russians. Immigration into Russia from surrounding primitive areas and third world countries paints a false picture of Russian population resurgence -- but the underlying human capital of Russia's core population is being lost.

It is almost as if Putin and his cronycrats have given up on Russia's future, and are merely seeking to stash away as much of Russia's wealth as possible before the population overflow from neighboring countries -- including China -- sweeps across the empty Russian landscape.

Russia is aging rapidly, and losing its working-age population. By 2030, Russia is set to lose 17 million skilled workers. No one knows how these crucial workers will be replaced -- or if it is even possible to replace them.

Irony Alert! Pravda Touts UK "Brain Drain Disaster"

While Russia itself is in the midst of its own decades-long brain drain, the Russian media outlet Pravda is shining the spotlight thousands of kilometres from Moscow on the United Kingdom. According to Pravda, the UK is facing a serious disaster:

The UK government is seriously concerned. According to statistics, every three minutes a citizen leaves the country. If this trend continues, the state will soon be on the brink of a disaster whose consequences would be nearly impossible to eliminate. According to the analysts at the University of Huddersfield, the reduction in the number of scientists willing to emigrate can only be achieved by an increase in the level of wages, as well as allocating additional funding for research activities.

according to the analysts at the University of Huddersfield, the country is suffering not only from the loss of skilled workers, but also the "brain drain." Every year in the UK each university loses two to three high-level scientists.

Emigration rates are striking. The Telegraph, citing the National Bureau of Statistics, reported that only this year over 400,000 British citizens left the country, which has not happened in the last 50 years.

According to analysts of the British Institute of Social Policy Studies, one in twelve citizens lives abroad, and over a million are seriously considering leaving the United Kingdom in the next two to three years. The Institute analysts argue that those leaving the country are mostly middle-aged professionals who want to find a better place to work. The young British stay in the country. _Pravda

The Pravda piece appears to conflate the idea of a "brain drain" with the very real phenomenon of Britons retiring to nicer climates, or moving abroad to work in lucrative fields.

According to the piece, UK universities lose 2 to 3 high level scientists per year, a very small portion of the 400,000 emigrants. And certainly Russia itself has been losing its top scientists and technologists at a much higher rate for 20 years and counting. But for some reason, Pravda finds Britain's "brain drain" troubling and disastrous.

In Russia, it is the lack of opportunity caused by rampant corruption and massive dysfunction that drives its best and brightest young people out. No one trusts Russia's markets or its government.

One interesting aspect of the UK emigration puzzle -- which is shared by Israel -- is that the UK is often a "stopover destination" for immigrants from poorer nations. These "stopover immigrants" often acquire more education and training in their intermediate destinations, then move on to Switzerland, the US, Canada, Australia, or New Zealand.

Complicating the global picture is the fact that the US Obama government -- and other dysfunctional western governments -- are so badly mis-managing their economies and minimising opportunities, that they are driving many highly skilled immigrants either back to their home countries, or to yet another, third country.

So raise a glass of chilled vodka to the stalwart journalists of Pravda, who understand what must be done to keep their jobs and their Moscow residences. Media skanks tend to all smell the same, no matter where they live and work.

Zuckerberg, Facebook, and Russia's Brain Drain

Russia is important to Facebook, and Facebook is important to Russia. Russian investors have sunk $billions into the global social network company, and Facebook has played a role in some of the deep underlying social ferment occurring in Putin's Russia.

...Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook, met Russia’s prime minister and former president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, on Monday.

...Facebook played an integral role in political dissent in Russia last winter, allowing street protests to coalesce when handing out fliers or posting notices on corkboards would not have worked.

Russia is also home to two large and early Facebook investors, Alisher Usmanov, a steel tycoon, and Yuri Milner, an expert on monetizing social network traffic in emerging markets. The two partly cashed out in the initial public offering of Facebook stock earlier this year but still own billions of dollars’ worth of shares.

...Earlier this month, in another step deeper into the Russian market, Facebook made a deal with one of Russia’s mobile phone operators, Beeline, to provide a free application to subscribers. _NYT

Many people in Russia are worried about how Facebook will affect the ongoing brain drain of young technologically savvy Russians to the west:

Facebook has been enticing program developers from Russia, Pavel Durov, founder and General Director of the biggest Russian social network VKontakte, told Vedomosti. “I know for sure that one of the VK Cup [VKontakte developers’ competition] finalists is already working for Facebook,” said Durov. When asked whether VKontakte employees are generally leaving for Facebook, Durov said: “We aren’t fools. It’s a sinking ship.”...

...programmers make $30,000-$40,000 a year in Russia and $70,000-$80,000 in the United States.... Western companies have every reason to be interested in Russian programmers: they are as technically proficient as Indian developers, for example. Russian programmers even surpass others when it comes to creativity and the ability to address unconventional tasks, says Russoft Association President Valentin Makarov. _Indrus

The salary comparisons above may be a bit misleading (and subject to changes in the price of oil & gas): The opportunities to achieve positions for top-level programmers in Russian companies is far more limited than the number of positions for much higher paid programmers in western companies. From Facebook to Google to Microsoft and on and on . . . the appetite of western tech companies for clever engineers and coders is insatiable -- even in the middle of a prolonged Euro-crisis and Obama recession.

Russia herself can be seen as a sinking ship, in terms of demographics and the dull, grey inertia that grows more debilitating to Russian society for every year that the corrupt Putin government maintains control.

Facebook is one symbol among many, of the strong appeal of more balanced economies outside Russia -- foreign economies that are not dependent in a life or death manner on just one industry.

Russia's technology sector has suffered well over a decade of brain drain, and Russia in general has suffered from corruption, capital flight, a crumbling public health infrastructure, a collapse in populations of ethnic Russians at the same time that Muslim immigrants are flooding into the country illegally, and legally.

We can always hope that the Russian people will find a way out of their largely self-made labyrinth of stagnation. But they have no historical guide by which to plot a better course. Perhaps if enough of Russia's best young people leave the country, and learn better ways of doing things, some of them may return to push Russia toward nation-saving reforms.

Russia Faces a Troubled Future

Russia of today is an oil-rich country controlled by corrupt politicians, mafias and wealthy elitists who buy foreign goods and keep their wealth in foreign banks; send their children to Western schools and universities; take vacations abroad; and even seek health care in the Europe and the United States.

Vladimir Putin exemplifies this focus on personal gain. Shlapentokh said the Russian president and his friends have gone so far as to merge Russian companies with foreign corporations for the promise of owning Western stocks. Further, while Putin indulges his personal whims – such as organizing expensive international sporting events – the country suffers from low-quality medical services, inept education, bad housing and many other problems...

...“This desire to secure their wealth abroad stems from the uncertainly that comes with living in a politically unstable country,” Shlapentokh said. _Michigan State University

This corrupt leadership style is similar to what one sees across the third world. While a corrupt leadership thrives on a nation's natural resources, the masses of people tend to suffer.

One should not be surprised, then to see the significant brain drain and ongoing capital flight out of Russia.

Putin cracks down on any opposition threatening his administration, with the Kremlin routinely suggesting protestors leave or face harassment or even imprisonment. Nearly 1.3 million citizens have left Russia during the past three years. Ultimately, the many problems facing Russia are collectively eroding the cultural beliefs and institutions that make a country united and strong, Shlapentokh says.

“This has put Russia in a weak position for resisting terrorism or potential attacks from her neighbors. In short, Russia is not in a position to be a major global force despite its nuclear arsenal, the size of the country, its natural resources, and its position on the UN Security Council.” _Futurity

Such corrupt, counter-productive, intolerant governing style inevitably creates a society where the masses of people avoid risk, and thus avoid taking chances in search of opportunity. It is an atrophying society, which goes along with the ongoing demographic atrophy of Russia's core ethnic Russian population.

Any gains seen in Russia's population are coming from a ballooning Muslim immigrant sub-population. This growing sub-population within the core population is already generating problems with crime, intolerance, and ethnic violence.

Russia's leadership is living it up as if there would be no tomorrow. And in a significant sense -- for the masses of ethnic Russians -- they may be right.

Russia Suffers Drain of Brains

A brain drain from Russia has been funneling its brightest minds to the West, while the nation’s embattled higher education system struggles to find its place in the post-Soviet world. _NYT

Russia's educational system has been losing ground for decades. Consequently, Russia's brain-drain is occurring at earlier and earlier ages and stages of the educational process.

Not only are the best Russian science and technology graduates being lured overseas, sometimes the recruiting takes place even before graduation.

And those students who stay behind in Russia are studying more superfluous subjects, rather than the much needed scientific and technological areas of concentration.

Comfortably settled under the gilt ceiling and surrounded by statues of tsarist-era heroes, the participants of the Strong Russia 2012 summit were in an amicable state of mind, at least until the deputy economics minister of the Kaliningrad region stood up.

Mikhail Gorodkov spoke about an issue that few in the room could ignore: the lack of specialists needed to support Russia's development.

"With the excess of economists and lawyers that we have right now, there will simply be nobody left in 10 years to add to gross production [in Russia]," Gorodkov said.

The issue, although not a novelty to the summit participants, is a sore one. While authorities are soliciting more local and foreign investment by positioning Russia as a technological leader, the quality of the country's working staff has steadily declined.

Eighty-six percent of companies in Russia experience a deficit of qualified personnel, according to a study by Antal Russia. The June 2012 poll was based on information gathered from 200 companies.

Technical specialists, qualified retail workers, engineers and IT staff are the hardest to find. This shortage of qualified workers is expected to worsen in 10 to 15 years as Russia's demographics show fewer people of working age.

Part of the problem is the current fashion among youth to train to be economists, lawyers and managers, said Viktor Sadovnichy, rector at Moscow State University.

There is such a surplus of these professions on the market now that the newly graduated professionals are having trouble finding jobs or are forced to settle for jobs that pay 10,000 to 12,000 rubles ($370), Sadovnichy said.

The results of the Unified State Exam are a good indication of the professions that graduates are choosing to study. The number of students who pass the physics exam, which is necessary to go on to study engineering, is currently only 2 percent of the number that the technology sector needs to function, Sadovnichy said._Moscow Times

Capital flight from Russia continues, although at a lower level since the price of oil has dropped.

Should the price of oil remain for long below break-even for the Russian government budget ($120 - $150 per barrel), Russia's problems will have just begun.

Vladimir Putin has big plans for Russia, but he will need to find a way to bring in greater profits to the one-trick-pony energy state. The global price of natural gas is likely to drop lower -- making it difficult for Gazprom to support unofficial state projects. And Putin needs for the price of oil (Brent) to exceed $120 a barrel in order to pay off cronies and to finance all the new weapons systems he wants to build.

Putin's best hope for the future is if US President Obama is re-elected, prolonging the extreme dysfunction and weakening of his greatest enemy nation. Because it is only a matter of time before Russia will have to confront China militarily. And when that happens, Putin does not want the US to be in any condition to take advantage.

A Steady Loss of Talent Makes Russia's Demographic Collapse Worse

Russia has not seen anything like it since 1917, Newsru.com reported. Over 1.25 million people have left in the last 10 years, the news portal reported. “The country is hemorrhaging intellectual potential,” Newsru.com cited political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin as saying. “The most active, the cleverest and the most mobile are leaving.” _MoscowNews

Recent polls suggest around 20% of Russians are considering leaving. The high cost of living, the poor quality of medical services and widespread corruption are often to blame.

The prospect of Vladimir Putin serving another term as President isn’t helping, either. Many fear under him that opportunities will further diminish. Experts say this latest “brain drain” isn’t about earning more money – it’s about the inability to find a place in Russian society.

Bottom line: Russia’s experiencing a new wave of emigration and “brain drain” as its best minds flee instability and stagnation, looking abroad for a breath of fresh air and career opportunities. _WallStreetDaily

The situation is most acute among Russia's up and coming scientists, technologists, and professionals -- the very people who are needed to bring Russia into the 21st century.

Not for the first time, Russian scientists are taking their considerable knowledge and moving abroad. Some of the brainy emigrants cite funding problems and Russian red tape as reasons to move. For others, heading West is simply a lifestyle choice.

...Russian graduate students prefer just about any small, unknown laboratory in Europe over the brand-new Russian scientific complex [Skolkovo]. “A stable trend has been established: 100% of working young people who get the opportunity to work abroad leave Russia,” said one scientific analyst. “If a young researcher gets the opportunity to enter the international arena, he or she will do it.”

Indeed, the trend extends beyond scientists. In October, 2011, a survey found that 22% of Russian citizens in general were prepared to leave the country. The only thing that sets the scientists apart is that they tend to be much more welcome by the receiving countries. “It’s not even really about the lack of financing for scientific projects, but general quality of life,” said one of the scientists. “If regular people are not coming back to Russia, then why would scientists do so?” _WorldCrunch

Russia is the world's largest country, in terms of land mass. It is a land rich with natural resources, and one of the world's foremost energy exporters. But not all is well in the land of the Russian bear. Alcoholism, suicide, mental illness, crime, and infectious diseases such as HIV and Tuberculosis, are all endemic. Russia's men die before they can retire, leaving Russian women with nothing but vodka to keep them warm at night.

Beautiful young Russian women compete to be mail order brides for European, North American, and Australian men. Ambitious and competent young Russian men compete for overseas positions -- anything to escape the dreary dead-end that Russia has come to represent to so many of its young.

“It turns out that in only two years the number of articles published by Russian scientists has dropped by 10%. That is unprecedented,” said a researcher at a Physics Institute in Moscow, who like other protesters interviewed, asked to remain anonymous. “That hasn’t happened in the United States, where funding is still plentiful for scientists, in Japan, which has suffered through several years of economic stagnation, or even in Greece, which is drowning in its own debt.”

...“Scientists have always left our country, but now we are talking about a large increase in the number of people who are moving away. Nearly all of our friends have packed up their things,” said one of the protest organizers. “Dissertation advisors don’t discourage young scientist from choosing to leave. Now we’re seeing a huge wave of people who are leaving the country. The only thing keeping most of them here is that they haven’t defended their dissertation yet.”

There are no specific statistics on the number of scientists who leave – emigrants don’t generally notify the Russian migration office that they are leaving. But this is not the first exodus. There was a massive wave of scientists who left Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Mathematicians, physicists, and biologists took whole laboratories to the United States. The second most popular destination was Israel, where a previous wave of Russian scientists had already set up shop in the 1970s.

By the beginning of the 2000s, nearly all the top names from Soviet science were working outside of Russia. According to the Association of Russian Speaking Scientists, there are around 100,000 Russian-speaking scientists and researchers working outside of the Russian Federation, counting those who left Russia before and after the fall of the Soviet Union.... _WorldCrunch

Russia's core population would be shrinking even without the outgoing emigration. But the loss of Russia's most ambitious, competent, and fertile young people to the outside world does nothing to improve the morale of those left behind.

Parts of the above were re-published from abu al-fin

Young Russians Fleeing a Sinking Ship

Scared, fed up and feeling disenfranchised, many successful Russians are investing in citizenship in Western countries, according to consultants who have made a business of facilitating such emigration.

"It seems that the whole generation of 25- to 45-year-old Russians is actively thinking about running away, especially considering the prospect of seeing the same people in power for another 12 years, starting 2012. All dinner conversations tend to finish with this subject," said the general director of a multibillion-dollar multinational company in Russia, who asked not to be identified because of the blunt nature of his comments. _MoscowTimes

In our People Risk study, we found that Russia currently has the highest brain drain risk compared to the other three countries (see Figure 2). The issue of an ageing population is also an important factor for companies to consider as it can, and will, impact the company's workforce planning and costs in the future. Russia poses the highest risk of an ageing population, with close to 18% of its population above the age of 60, as compared to Brazil (9.9%), India (7.4%) and China (11.9%). _aon.com

Al Fin has been told by several readers that he is too hard on Russia. But compared to many young modern Russians, Al Fin's criticisms are quite mild.

In recent times, the posting of one blogger, who has left Russia, is popular in the Russian segment of the internet.

He, in particular, writes: «Russia is an evil, moreover – of a worldwide scale. Evil must be annihilated. Consequently, everything that is directed against Russia is a good.

…In general, to emigrate is much easier than this seems from Russia. To get a tourist visa now is not a problem, a residence permit – of course, is more complex, but here too there are different paths. As an example, if there are no provable grounds to ask for the status of a refugee – one can get a work visa to Australia or Canada; there, unlike in the USA, they give it automatically, if you gather the necessary quantity of points, given by profession (from a rather large list), education, knowledge of the language, age (the younger, the better), etc. Of course, nobody’s waiting for us anywhere with open arms, certain difficulties, especially at the start, will have to be overcome everywhere. But what is being spoken of is not getting into paradise. What is being spoken of is breaking out of hell. From a hell that in the foreseeable prospect is going to be getting ever worse and worse. By the way, a country and a people consistently standing up on the side of evil don’t deserve anything else.

I still don’t know how my own personal destiny will turn out, will they give me asylum in the USA or will I have to look for another country for myself. I know one thing – I will not return to Russia in any event…» _EurasiaReview

The situation inside Russia can be very bleak for the young, bright, and ambitious.

As chief of the migration laboratory at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Zhanna A. Zayonchkovskaya has studied previous waves of emigration, including in the 1990s, when as many as 6 million people left. But her desire to research this one puts her up against the wall others are confronting.

“Brain drain is a very urgent topic now,” she said. “We would like to study it, but we cannot get the money to do it.”

President Dmitry Medvedev drew attention to the brain drain in October, when two emigre scientists born and educated in Russia won the Nobel physics prize. They work in Britain, where they have attracted a number of other Russian-born scientists.

“We need to make an effort so that our talented people do not go abroad,” Medvedev said, adding that the government had failed to invest sufficiently in research. He has been trying to recruit foreigners to make Russia more competitive. _WaPo

Russia's human infrastructure is crumbling along with its physical and technological infrastructures. Vodka makes Russians feel warm at night, but it is a false warmth with no future.

For many educated young Russians, Western countries seem to have an intractable allure, whether there are more work opportunities, a better educational system, or simply nicer weather. While this last reason may seem trivial, many students are beginning to wonder if the grass is literally greener on the other side.

“Each year, I ask my master’s students where they see themselves three or four years from now,” Moscow State University economics professor Alexander Auzan said at a conference in the Polytechnic Museum this year. “In September 2010 roughly half said they envisaged themselves working abroad: not just anywhere but quite specifically in Germany, Britain, Ireland, or Argentina.” _Indrus.in

Young Russian women may find more paths open to them for emigration, not all of them with happy endings. But for the young who are bright, well trained, and ambitious, the rest of the world holds many possibilities.
For most of the men who stay in Russia, the picture is not very pretty.

RUSSIA is suffering from a serious shortage of men, with a high male mortality rate fuelled by heart disease and alcoholism, The Moscow Times reported today.

Preliminary census results showed that Russia's population dropped by 2.2 million since 2002 to just under 143 million, suggesting the government's efforts to boost the population were not working.

Just 46.3 percent of Russia's population was made up of men, down from 46.6 percent in 2002, the report said.

"Women here live longer," the newspaper quoted demographics researcher Boris Denisov as saying.

Men "do not want to live" in Russia, he added.

Russia has experienced a dramatic drop in population since the fall of the Soviet Union, fueled by alcoholism and unhealthy lifestyles as well as emigration. _HeraldSun.au

Interestingly, Russian women live about ten years longer than Russian men, but retire 5 years earlier at 55. Sadly, most Russian men never live to 60 to enjoy retirement, while retired Russian women have only the vodka to keep them company those long cold winter nights.

No wonder so many young Russians want to leave, to avoid such fates.