15 December 2008

Brain Drains in an Obama Depression

...“There is a regular movement of immigration to countries like the US, Australia, Canada, and also to Western Europe. The income in these countries is higher, and people come there from all over the world..._Source
The financial problems of the western world have slowed some of the influx from the third world. Need for unskilled and low skilled labour is much less, for example. Shortage of capital has made new startups more difficult. Some universities are freezing or cutting back on faculty and staff.

Bad decisions by governments such as in the UK are making their economic problems worse, and spurring immigration outward to other nations of the Anglosphere and Europe:
The introduction of the new 45% income tax band which will come into force in 2011 has put many of the higher earners in the UK on red alert. A number of reports of late have highlighted the fact that when you take into account VAT, income tax, national insurance and other unavoidable taxes in the UK the top earners in the UK are paying tax in the region of 60% on their earnings.

There are serious concerns that we will see a substantial brain drain from the UK over the next two or three years with more than enough overseas countries willing to accommodate the high earners on better rates. Not only will we see income tax receipts reduce for the Treasury but the potential for UK business as a whole will also be dented as the more entrepreneurial business minds move elsewhere. _FinancialAdvice
Some third world nations, such as Iran, stand out as particularly prone to losing their talent to nations with more freedom and opportunity.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Iran has the world’s highest rate of brain drain. Every year, more than 150,000 highly educated Iranians leave their country. The majority emigrate to the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Australia. The damage caused by this phenomenon is estimated to be $40 billion a year. _PJM
But the problem is also an internal one for western nations. The state government of California, for example, is so bad that it is driving a "brain drain" of producers from the golden state outward to more business friendly and less tax-and-regulation driven areas of the US.
The high cost of housing is driving job-seekers away from California, causing the gap to widen between educated workers and employers, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. _Dailynews
That is a really a copout on the part of the Public Policy Institute of California. It is the high cost of living and doing business that is driving educated workers, startups, and employers away from California.

The global economic retrenchment will have an uneven effect on emigration and immigration. While economic conditions have slowed almost everywhere, things are much worse in some places than others. Further, economic turbulence is likely to trigger political changes -- such as the recent US elections -- which will more than likely make matters even worse.

As a promoter of huge central government quasi-fascism, the Obama / Pelosi government will raise taxes on the entrepreneurial classes, open the door to labour union abuses, and make it even easier for trial lawyers to shut down enterprise using frivolous lawsuits. Obama is likely to slow the US economy so that it will act as less of an attractant to top overseas business, engineering, and science talent.

The resulting Obama recession / depression will trickle down to the BRIC and third world nations, slowing some areas of immigration and accelerating others. Some regions of the US that are furthest from the worst affected areas of the Obama depression will continue to attract 3rd world and BRIC immigrants. For Europe and the Anglosphere: it depends upon how far they pursue carbon hysteria and Obama style fascism, as to how well they ride out the economic turbulence.

The recent financial miscues of big banks and institutions from the US to China have created enough problems on their own. Unfortunately, governments of the world appear to be intent on multiplying and amplifying the problems to far greater magnitude. What we will see is the economic rise of particular sectors and regions. It is those sectors and regions which are able to maintain their productivity and support for education and R&D that will reap the largest crop of immigrants -- from both within and without.

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1 Comments:

Blogger Audacious Epigone said...

Evincing contrary measures, the UK has been moving towards an immigration system focusing on the highly skilled. But why would a young, ambitious scientist or engineer want to give nearly half of his income to the British government?

Also, the Obama infrastructure/stimulus plan is going to create an artificial (that is, governmental) incentive for low-skilled Hispanic immigrants to hang around in the US when many of them would otherwise go home, since living in Latin America is cheaper and more familiar than living in the US is.

Wednesday, 17 December, 2008  

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