Human Brain Networks Can be Tattle Tales

Thanks to advanced brain imaging tools, scientists are getting better at judging general tasks the brain is doing at any given time. Stanford researchers Michael Greicius and colleagues used fMRI to detect particular brain networks being used by subjects performing one of four different tasks: silent singing, recalling the days events, counting backward by threes, or simple relaxation.

Greicius and his colleagues have previously shown that the brain operates, at least to some extent, as a composite of separate networks composed a number of distinct but simultaneously active brain regions. They have identified approximately 15 such networks. Different networks are associated with vision, hearing, language, memory, decision-making, emotion and so forth. _PO

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The findings suggest that patterns for thousands of mental states might serve as a reference bank against which people's thoughts could be compared, potentially revealing what someone is thinking or how they are feeling. "In some dystopian future, you might imagine reference patterns for 10,000 mental states, but that would be a woeful application of this technology," says Greicius.

..."The most important potential for this is in the clinic where classifying and diagnosing and treating psychiatric disease could be really important," says Brodersen. "At the moment, psychiatry is often just trial and error." _NewScientist

Greicius has been studying brain networks for many years. He began looking at the brain's default mode network. Then he looked at dissociable intrinsic connectivity networks for salience processing and executive control. Now the team has progressed to the point where roughly 15 distinct networks have been identified, including some involving the cerebellum.

Government snoops, interrogators, marketing agencies, and other inquiring minds would like to be able to read your thoughts, of course. But it will be a while yet before brain scanners can read a brain from a distance. Since every brain is different, interpretation of scans will depend upon the ability to calibrate equipment for each brain without influencing the scan.

Remember that the ability to read a brain's network activity is just a step away from the ability to influence that brain's activity. After a certain point, wearing a tinfoil hat may begin to make sense. ;-)

Understanding the Brain: Videos via Simoleon Sense

via SimoleonSense
Simoleon Sense has been a particularly seminal website for the dissemination of ideas which underlie the economic behaviours of humans. Miguel links to a wide array of viewpoints, many of which contradict each other. That is the best -- perhaps the only -- approach to take in order to most closely approach a global maximum of "truth."

The videos for the day are meant to help understand how the human brain -- your brain -- works. Here is a list of links to scholarly videos from the Society for Social Neuroscience.

Larry Young: Effects of Oxytocin on social behaviour
Bruce McEwen: The brain as an organ of stress
David Amodio: Control of thinking processes

Unfortunately, modern educational systems are not helping students to make the best use of their amazing, complex brains (NYT via SimoleonSense)

Each human brain is a dynamic data point within the vast matrix of global human society. Understanding mass behaviour of societies is a challenging task, given that humans do not yet have a decent inkling of how individual brains work.

No matter how futile the task, however, chipping away at the challenge does occupy the time and can occasionally lead to profitable discoveries.

More: Peter Thiel pays 24 winners of the Thiel Fellowship $100,000 NOT TO ATTEND COLLEGE! The fellowship promotes entrepreneurship and the building of new businesses as a better way of learning about life. Face it: Being indoctrinated into dysfunctional groupthink -- whether at Harvard or at Podunk U. -- is worse than a waste of your brain's potential. Today's college indoctrination and academic lobotomisation is actually the destruction of yours and your children's potential, besides being a rapid route to debilitating debt.

Growth in National Debts over Time

Public Gross Debt as Percent of GDP by Country – 1992-2011

gfmag Click on arrow to start
This graphic understates the deadly peril that national economies of advanced nations find themselves in. The drivers of debt growth are built into the economies as fixed entitlements and as growing interest payments on the debt. Exponential growth of debt and eventual default or monetary collapse are inevitable -- unless governments can bring themselves to either institute painful budgetary reforms or to open their economies to market reforms which expand economic opportunity and facilitate competitiveness.

Modern quasi-leftist nanny state democratic governments whose citizenries suffer from an aggravated sense of entitlement, will never be able to absorb the painful sacrifice necessary to discipline their debt. Demographic trends of aging populations and decline of human capital are not helping.

This table uses data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and measures gross debt as a percent of GDP. Most major statistical organizations measure debt with fairly consistent results, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Eurostat.

The 2007-2009 financial crisis led to a dramatic increase in the public debt of many advanced economies, with many of them experiencing their highest levels of debt since World War II. This was in large part due to the huge stimulus programs in countries around the world, in addition to government bailouts, recapitalizations and takeovers of banks and other financial institutions. Another contributing factor to the increased debt was the decrease in tax revenues.

Public debt as a percent of GDP in OECD countries as a whole went from hovering around 70% throughout the 1990s to more than 90% in 2009 and is projected to grow to almost 100% of GDP by 2011, possibly rising even higher in the following years. It could already be higher, as potential costs of aging populations may not be entirely reflected in the budget projections of some countries.

The rise in public debt has been seen not only in countries with a history of debt problems - such as Japan, Italy, Belgium and Greece - but also in countries where it was relatively low before the crisis - such as the US, UK, France, Portugal and Ireland. _gfmag_via_MJPerry

The combined scourges of debt and demographic decline allow observers to anticipate economic and sociological trends for several regions across the globe. Only by looking at these and other underlying dynamic mechanisms of change, can individuals and groups position themselves to meet the turbulent transformational events coming their way.

Data is from the OECD Economic Outlook 87 database, June 2010. Figures are a percent of GDP. Click on the column heading to sort the table.

gfmag

No Way to Pretend that this Mangy Dog is a Beautiful Princess

More... FinancialArmageddon: Not a sense of recovery wherever you turn

The global economy remains devastated, despite all popular claims to the contrary. And it is not just Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal which are in trouble. The US is beginning to feel the hurt from ludicrous fiscal and monetary policies which date back to the 1970s -- but which have reached particularly destructive levels under the Obama-Reid regime. The global economy still pivots around the US economy. And that is bad news all around.

1) Existing home sales for April were down 0.5% to 5.05 million as compared to 7.2 million at the peak. Inventories of homes for sale increased to a 9.2 months, the highest since December while prices were down 5% from a year earlier.

2) April housing starts dropped 10.2% to 523,000, barely above the recession lows, and below any level prior to 2008. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) traffic of potential buyers was still extremely low. Keep in mind that this is an organization that usually puts a positive spin on any results.

3) While weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 409,000 from the prior week, the number has now been over 400,000 for six straight weeks after a period of coming in below that level.

4) The Philadelphia Fed Index for May fell sharply to 3.9, losing 39.5 points in the last two months. This is also well below the 1st quarter average of 32.9. Both new and unfilled orders dropped significantly while inventories also declined, indicating that the inventory buildup that helped support the recovery may be moving back in line with demand, which has been growing less than production.

5) Consistent with the above, April industrial production was flat. It is likely that production, which had consistently been running ahead of demand, is being reduced as inventories that were depleted during the recession have now caught up. This also may explain the higher level of initial claims.

6) The Empire State Manufacturing Survey was also down 9.8 points to 11.9, the lowest level since December. This index therefore confirms the Philly index and suggests similar lower results from the ISM manufacturing index.

7) The April index of leading indicators declined 0.3%. While one month does not make a trend it was the first monthly drop since last June, and fits in with what other indicators seem to be telling us.

8) Similarly, the ECRI Weekly leading indictor has been down for three of the last five weeks and has been about flat since mid-December after rising steadily from the recession lows. This is indicative of at least a pause in coming economic growth, and perhaps something worse.

9) April core retail sales increased only 0.2%, and were probably flat to slightly down when adjusted for inflation. Higher income from reduced social security withholding was more than offset by higher gasoline prices, tepid wage increases, high unemployment, lower home prices and recessionary levels of consumer confidence. And this is happening even before the end of QE2, which has been keeping the economy afloat since November.

10) The April Small Business Survey, after rising weakly from recession lows, has now dropped 3.1 points in the last two months. Even at its most recent high it was below any level in its history prior to 2008. Key segments that declined were plans to increase employment and capital expenditures. In addition the number expecting sales to rise also dropped.

11) In addition to the domestic concerns cited above, the global picture is also not looking too rosy. ECRI's long leading indicator of global industrial growth peaked last August at 0.7 and stood at 0.1 in March. ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan stated "There's a downturn in global industrial growth in clear sight". EU production fell in March and retail sales have been flat for six months. In the UK there's been no GDP growth for six months. Japanese GDP dropped 3.7% annualized in the 1st quarter and 3.0% in the 4th. Note that the earthquake occurred on March 11th, toward the end of the quarter, so cannot be fully blamed for the 1st quarter and not at all for the 4th. Industrial output in all of the BRIC nations seems to be slowing, and current monetary and fiscal policies suggest more to come.

All in all it seems to us that the odds are high that a domestic and global economic slowdown is already in place. In the U.S. the slowdown is happening with only six weeks to go before the end of QE2, a program that has been a major prop for even the tepid recovery we've undergone so far. For the stock market nothing seems to matter until, suddenly, it does. _ComstockFunds

Did you imagine that China is ready to take over as the global economy's driving force? Better think again. More here.

via EconomyWatch
Drowning in Debt: Why the economy still cannot seem to recover.

Reading the consequences of debt: The hidden taxes of debts, deficits, and a deflationary : inflationary chaos -- along with dysfunctional government regulations, incentives, corruption, and laws -- combine to crush any nascent recovery in its cradle.

But the disaster is compounded by the effect of demographics: If human capital is not growing and improving, any realistic hope of economic growth and development is delusional.

Japan is the canary in the coal mine, the early warning signal for the rest of the world, on the dangers of debt and demography. The PIIGS of Europe are following closely behind. Russia would be a global economic basket case except for Siberian wealth -- and how much longer can the bear hold on to Siberia in the face of shrinking demographics and evaporating human capital?

Will the people of the west ever wake up to what they are doing -- and allowing to be done -- to themselves? If not, what are the alternatives? Who is John Galt?

Politically Correct Delusions and Madnesses of Crowds

The fates of modern democratic societies are dependent far more upon the behaviour of crowds -- or the mob -- than most citizens would like to believe. Popular culture is determined by mob tastes and preferences, and the often unpredictable behaviour of mobs on election day is bemoaned by leaders of all political parties -- at one time or another. Mob behaviours are guided by mob beliefs, which are as often as not, delusional. Here is a good example of a modern popular delusion from Princeton Physics Professor William Happer:

I want to discuss a contemporary moral epidemic: the notion that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, will have disastrous consequences for mankind and for the planet. The “climate crusade” is one characterized by true believers, opportunists, cynics, money-hungry governments, manipulators of various types—even children’s crusades—all based on contested science and dubious claims.

...We need to be vigilant to keep our land, air, and waters free of real pollution, particulates, heavy metals, and pathogens, but carbon dioxide (CO2 ) is not one of these pollutants. Carbon is the stuff of life. Our bodies are made of carbon. A normal human exhales around 1 kg of CO2 (the simplest chemically stable molecule of carbon in the earth’s atmosphere) per day. Before the industrial period, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was 270 ppm. At the present time, the concentration is about 390 ppm, 0.039 percent of all atmospheric molecules and less than 1 percent of that in our breath. About fifty million years ago, a brief moment in the long history of life on earth, geological evidence indicates, CO2 levels were several thousand ppm, much higher than now. And life flourished abundantly.

Now the Environmental Protection Agency wants to regulate atmospheric CO2 as a “pollutant.” According to my Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary, to pollute is “to make or render unclean, to defile, to desecrate, to profane.” By breathing are we rendering the air unclean, defiling or desecrating it?

...As far as green plants are concerned, CO2 is not a pollutant, but part of their daily bread—like water, sunlight, nitrogen, and other essential elements. Most green plants evolved at CO2 levels of several thousand ppm, many times higher than now. Plants grow better and have better flowers and fruit at higher levels. Commercial greenhouse operators recognize this when they artificially increase the concentrations inside their greenhouses to over 1000 ppm.

...We would be perfectly healthy in a world with little or no atmospheric CO2—except that we would have nothing to eat and a few other minor inconveniences, because most plants stop growing if the levels drop much below 150 ppm. If we want to continue to be fed and clothed by the products of green plants, we can have too little CO2.

The minimum acceptable value for plants is not that much below the 270 ppm preindustrial value. It is possible that this is not enough, that we are better off with our current level, and would be better off with more still. There is evidence that California orange groves are about 30 percent more productive today than they were 150 years ago because of the increase of atmospheric CO2.

...A rare case of good correlation between CO2 levels and temperature is provided by ice-core records of the cycles of glacial and interglacial periods of the last million years of so. But these records show that changes in temperature preceded changes in CO2 levels, so that the levels were an effect of temperature changes. This was probably due to outgassing of CO2 from the warming oceans and the reverse effect when they cooled.

...The earth’s climate has always been changing. Our present global warming is not at all unusual by the standards of geological history, and it is probably benefiting the biosphere. Indeed, there is very little correlation between the estimates of CO2 and of the earth’s temperature over the past 550 million years (the “Phanerozoic” period). The message is clear that several factors must influence the earth’s temperature, and that while CO2 is one of these factors, it is seldom the dominant one. _WUWT

Full article by Professor Happer at First Things

Another popular delusion of politically correct crowds is a strong belief in the desirability of replacing modern coal, gas, and nuclear power plants with wind and solar power.

Mass delusions do not require reason or logic to gain converts. They only need to project the view that "everyone knows that ..." "every schoolboy knows ..." or "everybody believes that ..." This false sense of security in perceived numbers of believers has taken in a huge number of pseudo-intellectuals within the academy, in journalism, in politics, and in popular media and entertainment. All the better to project the delusion of universal belief.

In hindsight, such delusional madnesses are quite clearly absurd and without rational foundation. But when one is living through the delusion, the primeval instincts of the species hold sway.

Basic Reading on crowd behaviour:

Gustave le Bon: The Crowd
Charles Mackay: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Both titles above are also available for download at the Gutenberg Project

More on Gustave le Bon from Against Politics

23 May 2011 More: The increasingly rowdy and violent mobs known as government unions should be seen a particularly ominous portent for the future, to anyone who cares about freedom and independent action.

A Return to "Snowball Earth"

via NextBigFuture
The natural state of most planets is cold, very cold. Planet Earth owns some prime orbital real estate near its sun, but even so it has experienced periods of Snowball Earth, when virtually the entire planet was covered with snow and ice. If humans are not careful how they approach the chaotic issue of Earth's climate, they could very well push the planet back toward that strange and very cold attractor. Here is one way it could be done:

HIGH-FLYING BLIMPS, based on existing protoypes, could support a hose no thicker than a fire hose (above) to carry sulfur dioxide as a clear liquid up to the stratosphere, where one or more nozzles (below) would atomize it into a fine mist of nanometer-scale aerosol particles.

The cost to construct a Stratospheric Shield with a pumping capacity of 100,000 tons a year of sulfur dioxide would be roughly $24 million, including transportation and assembly. Annual operating costs would run approximately $10 million. The system would use only technologies and materials that already exist—although some improvements may be needed to existing atomizer technology in order to achieve wide sprays of nanometer-scale sulfur dioxide particles and to prevent the particles from coalescing into larger droplets. Even if these cost estimates are off by a factor of 10 (and we think that is unlikely), this work appears to remove cost as an obstacle to cooling an overheated planet by technological means. _NextBigFuture

Remember the idea of using "near space" as a waystation to Earth orbit? The type of lighter-than-air craft involved are very similar. One big difference between the two schemes is that the climate repercussions of massive cooling of the planet could lead to the dieoff of billions of humans, due to widespread crop failure.

A similar geoengineering climate scheme involves the use of stratospheric mirror-balloons to reflect any unwanted solar radiation back into space. The mirror-balloons -- unlike the sulfur dioxide aerosols -- would be controlled so as to block sunlight, allow the sunlight through, or to focus sunlight on a particular area of land surface, ocean, or atmosphere. The weapons potential of the mirror-balloon geoengineering scheme should be obvious.

Human scientists barely understand the salient mechanisms of Earth's chaotic climate. Certainly stratospheric water vapour concentration is also likely to be extremely important in the overall scheme of climate.

But once humans begin to actively interfere with the radiative balance of Earth on a grand scale, they risk pushing the scale toward a catastrophic ice age, which would be incalculably worse for the human population of the planet than any realistic temporary warming scenario from anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

People are getting de-sensitised by the constant doom-and-gloom predictions from faux environmentalists and climate pseudo-scientists. Particularly when many of these predictions are decades old, and no closer to coming true than when they were originally published or proclaimed. The IPCC in particular is losing credibility by the day.

But the momentum from all the decades of carbon hysteria and faux environmental doom will take time to dissipate. Many academics, journalists, and other slow thinkers will take years or decades to die off -- or wise up to the obvious fact that their most closely held beliefs are not supported by the evidence or the passage of time.

The SO2 injection scheme pictured at top is a good example of a "file it and forget it" idea. Anyone who wants to push the planet into an ice age so as to trigger a massive human dieoff.orgy may want to pursue the idea further, however.

China: "An Unsettling and Unending Vista of Emptiness?"

video via economiccollapse.net
Most of the modern worldwide commodities bubble is being driven by demand from China -- both directly and indirectly. China's GDP continues to impress the outside world's economic gurus and analysts. But "it's not the quantity of GDP that matters, it's the quality." If, after the collapse of much of China's huge export market, China's economic growth is now being built upon ghost infrastructure (to nowhere), a financial reckoning will eventually come. When that happens, what will global commodities markets do?

Source for Table

As western economies begin to crumble and even China’s cheap manufactured items become too expensive, the Asian powerhouse could be in big trouble. Maybe even more trouble than the western economies.

Fact is, its domestic market isn’t robust enough to take up the slack. Not nearly robust enough. The government overlords can only keep the factories running, people employed and inventories piling up for so long.

At some point, even the Chinese must submit to the inexorable forces of supply and demand. Factories will be shuttered. Massive layoffs will ensue. Unrest will rise among millions of Chinese factory workers (nee peasants). _EconomicCollapse

More from the Atlantic
Dramatic Slowdowns in China Coming

If your investment strategy is based upon a continuing exponential growth in demand for petroleum and other commodities, it may be time for a rethinking.

Certainly most believers in "peak oil doom" are counting on continued high global demand, to make their dreams of doom come true. For those in better tune with the global economic and demographic symphony, it is not too late to move away from the groupthink to a more justifiable position.

Further, if you are an American who is coming to see your president as a combination of Nixon's paranoia and Carter's incompetence, you may want to take a look a some "going Galt" options that many of your cohorts are eyeing.

More interesting takes on why the government -- any government -- is not a friend to your financial well-being, by Doug Casey

The US population is drowing in debt and demographic decline. The same twin disasters are beginning to take hold of many European nations, if they are not careful about who immigrates. Japan and Russia may well be beyond the point of demographic return, for their core populations.

As long as the "intelligensia" of the world can be distracted by hysteric nightmares of carbon climate catastrophe, overpopulation doom, resource scarcity doom, ecological collapse, and other figments of inadequate and undisciplined minds, attention of the masses will be diverted from the genuine disaster creep of debt and demographics.

Life is the Education, Not College

Update 25May2011: An article describing the Peter Thiel Fellowship -- which pays fellows $100,000 not to attend college -- providing further details and information on this theme.

Humans begin learning as soon as the central nervous system begins to develop in the womb. Learning during infancy and early childhood is more intensive than any other learning in a person's life. Over historical and pre-historical time, most humans learned about life from observation, imitation, apprenticeship, and experimentation -- and just doing it. Only recently has it been thought necessary for every child to receive a formal, government-approved education before being released into the real world.

And still it is life that is the real education, not schools, not colleges. Schools can only prepare a student for a few of the things he will confront in real life, the rest is up to the lifelong student's capacity to adapt and grow in the real world.


Don't Let Your Schooling Get in the Way of Your Education

There is a significant mismatch between what schools "teach" and what life will demand of a student. School curricula do not generally provide the education a person needs to confront the real challenges to be faced. While a child may be forced to attend school up to a certain age or level, there is no guarantee that he will learn even the barest of necessities. In today's climate of indoctrination-by-school, what the child learns in school may be both patently false and outright counter-productive to his life prospects -- besides being a total waste of his time and a distraction from his true education.

Too much of the time, the actual "education" a child receives from lower education is an induction into delinquency and basic groupthink. Proceeding to "higher education," advanced studies in binge drinking, fornication, and an indoctrination into dysfunctional ideology and advanced groupthink, help to complete the blunting of the once-promising prospects which the child may have possessed.

Most bright and observant people have come to doubt whether it is in the best interests of families and society to pay the huge and ruinous price to maintain the modern system of "education." Particularly when a better education is readily obtainable at a minimal cost via the internet, libraries, used book stores, and real life.

The raucous marching of the paid, truant, and quasi-violent drones in Madison, Wisconsin, was but a gentle preview of the truly violent clashes to come, between the entitled establishment and the embattled taxpayer.

Most Americans think college is not worth the money

Winds of change in college infrastructure portend massive changes in how advanced education will be provided

In place of "unions" in the cartoons, one could also write "tenured professors" and "university administrations." A sense of entitlement runs deep and rampant in "educational" circles, and in societies with topheavy governments in general.

Human Intelligence Comes from the Genes

LAMC3 Gene and Effect on Brain Convolutions
The difference between the brain on the left above and the brain on the right, comes from a single gene -- LAMC3 -- which influences the formation of convolutions in the cerebral cortex. Brain convolutions allow for much greater volume of cerebral cortex, which is associated with the higher intelligence seen in apes, cetaceans, and humans (one of the apes). An alteration of the nucleic acid sequence in the LAMC3 gene in humans can apparently lead to the loss of convolutions in the cortex in affected individuals, as seen in the image above.

The folding of the brain is seen only in mammals with larger brains, such as dolphins and apes, and is most pronounced in humans. These fissures expand the surface area of the cerebral cortex and allow for complex thought and reasoning without taking up more space in the skull. Such foldings aren't seen in mammals such as rodents or other animals. Despite the importance of these foldings, no one has been able to explain how the brain manages to create them. The LAMC3 gene – involved in cell adhesion that plays a key role in embryonic development – may be crucial to the process.

An analysis of the gene shows that it is expressed during the embryonic period that is vital to the formation of dendrites, which form synapses or connections between brain cells. "Although the same gene is present in lower organisms with smooth brains such as mice, somehow over time, it has evolved to gain novel functions that are fundamental for human occipital cortex formation and its mutation leads to the loss of surface convolutions, a hallmark of the human brain," Gunel said. _Medicalxpress

Thousands of genes take part in the intricate developmental dance of forming the central nervous system in all its complexity. But specific genes play more dominant roles in differentiating human brains from brains of "lower" animals.

Genes control the size of particular systems and components of the brain which are instrumental in providing for more rapid mental processing and more complex processing. Some brains can hold more ideas in the mind simultaneously, while performing transformative operations on those ideas. "Human calculators" capable of computing solutions to complex arithmetical and mathematical problems in their heads, are one obvious example. But the mental machinations of scientific theorists, elite diagnosticians, and top level novelists, illustrate the same type of differentiation of mental ability -- largely originating at the genetic level.

James Watson -- one of the discoverers of the modern genetic theory of DNA inheritance -- received almost universal condemnation for expressing a few elementary facts of human genetic biodiversity. Here is some background information concerning that shameful episode of modern human culture and its prejudices:

GNXP: James Watson tells the Inconvenient Truth

Slate: Created Equal [AF Note: After being threatened with a similar fate as that of Watson, the much beaten-down Saletan (author of the slate piece above) published a "mea culpa" and submitted to the PC inquisition]

Useful PDF article from Robert Plomin discussing Genes and Intelligence

It is critical to understand how many genes are involved in weaving the fabric of higher intelligence. It is not a question of finding THE GENE for intelligence. Rather it is a question of understanding how all the many genes which create the potential for intelligence, work together.

And it is important to become a bit more sophisticated about how a crucial variability in gene expression can occur -- even when conventional genetic analyses fail to distinguish between two genomes.

Humans are not all the same. In fact, no two humans are exactly the same -- even identical twins. This is true for reasons of gene expression, in all its many levels of complexity -- both known and unknown. These differences can also originate from differences in experience and culture, as in when identical twins are separated at birth and raised in entirely different environments. But even then, the powerful impact of genes on the life outcome of the separated twins is all to obvious.

IQ is not everything. Executive Function (EF) is also crucial to life success. But EF is perhaps even more heritable than IQ. That is why it is so crucial to take advantage of a child's critical developmental windows for boosting the components of competent thinking, acting, and planning when one can. After that time period passes, it is mostly too late for those at the greatest genetic disadvantage.

Human Brain Project Moves Toward Human Cortex Model

Spiegel
Henry Markram's Human Brain Project in Lausanne, is competing for funding from the FET Flagship Initiative, to the tune of 1 billion Euros, disbursed over a ten year period. Markram's goals are extremely ambitious, and unprecedented. He aims to model the human cerebral cortex to an exquisite degree of precision. Markram expects that his model of the human brain will be so exact, that he will be able to study inaccessible brain diseases and devise impossible brain cures by using his model. He may be right. But in only ten years?

Scientists are paying particular attention to the cerebral cortex. This layer on the outside of brain, only a few millimeters thick, is the most important condition of it evolution. It is the starting point for efforts to understand what makes us tick -- and for endeavors to find solutions when things go wrong. Our brain builds its version of the universe in the cerebral cortex. The vast majority of what we see doesn't enter the brain through the eye. It is instead is based on the impressions, experiences and decisions in our brain.

Markham already completed important preparatory work for the computer modeling of the brain with his Blue Brain Project, an attempt to understand and model the molecular makeup of the mammalian brain. He modeled a tiny part of a rat brain, a so-called neocortical column, at the cell level. To understand what one of these columns does, it's helpful to imagine the cerebral cortex as a giant piano. There are millions of neocortical columns on the surface, and each of them produces a tone, in a manner of speaking. When they are simulated, the columns produce a symphony together. Understanding the design of these neocortical columns is a holy grail of sorts for neuroscientists.

It is important to understand the rules of communication among the nerve cells. The individual cells do not communicate at random, but instead seek specifically targeted communication partners. The axes of nerve cells intersect at millions of different points, where they can form a synapse. This makes communication between individual neurons possible. In a recent article in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Markram writes that such connections are also developed entirely without external influence. This could indicate a sort of innate knowledge that all people have in common. Markram refers to it as the "Lego blocks" of the brain, noting that each person assembles his own world on the basis of this innate knowledge. _Spiegel

The object of study for the Human Brain Project may be the most complex dynamic system in the universe. The attempt would be impossible without the most sophisticated computing hardware and software available. And one must have more than a mere fistful of Euros to acquire such advanced goodies.

Modeling all of this in a computer is extremely complex. Markram's current model encompasses tens of thousands of neurons. But this isn't nearly enough to come within striking range of the secret of our brain. To do that, scientists will have to assemble countless other partial models, which are to be combined to create a functioning total simulation by 2023.

The supercomputers at the Jülich Research Center near Cologne are expected to play an important role in this process. The brain simulation will require an enormous volume of data, or what scientist Markram calls a "tsunami of data." One of the challenges for scientists working under Thomas Lippert, head of the Jülich Supercomputing Centre, is to figure out how to make the computer process only a certain part of the data at a given time, but without completely losing sight of the rest. They also have to develop an imaging method, such as large, three-dimensional holograms, to depict the massive amounts of data.

All it takes is a look at the work of Jülich neuroscientist Katrin Amunts to understand the sheer volume of information at hand. The team she heads is compiling a detailed atlas of the human brain. To do so, they cut a brain into 8,000 slices and digitized them with a high-performance scanner. The brain model generated in this way consists of cuboids, each measuring 10 by 10 by 20 micrometers, and the size of the data set is three terabytes. Brain atlases with higher resolutions, says Amunts, would probably consist of more than 700 terabytes _Spiegel

The answer to the question posed above is: No, this goal cannot be met within a time frame of ten years. Because the challenge is not merely quantitative -- a matter of compiling the precise assembly of terabytes to create a brain atlas. The goal is to create a dynamic, interactive model of incredible plasticity -- a model which changes itself moment to moment. The "700 terabyte" requirement mentioned above is just the starting point -- the bare beginning -- in the assembly of such a dynamic and ever-changing model.

But the problem is even harder -- much, much harder. The quantitative complexity -- even in dynamic flow -- is nothing when compared to the qualitative complexity, which is nowhere near to being solved by Markram's team.

The project as described in brief above is an excellent starting point. Much can be learned from such an approach. But starting points do not necessarily point directly toward the end that one seeks. Rather, they point somewhere "out there." It is for the questers to continuously adjust their headings -- and often they are forced to adjust their goals.

Good luck to Henry and his team -- with the funding and with the ongoing project. It is an ambitious goal worthy of any scientist.

The Search for the Safest Place in US and World

NYT via Lifehacker via KeelynetLooking for a safe place to live? You are not alone. First, it is important to separate dangers into natural disasters and man-made disaster. Looking at natural disasters in the US, we can see the approximate risk of US cities from tornado, hurricane, and earthquake in the map above. Notice that flood risk is not specifically covered -- although it is one of the most important periodic natural disasters. Wildfire is yet another devastating periodic natural disaster that is ignored by the map. Volcanoes are an extreme hazard, but relatively rare, so are not considered in the above list. That is fortunate for most of the cities considered the "safest," since they are sitting in the middle of volcano country.

The map below merely lists standardised mortality ratios from disasters of all types in the US. The emphasis for the lower map is on weather, ignoring earthquakes, fires, and apparently floods. Here is an example of a top 10 US safest city list, which attempts to take crime AND natural risks into account.

NewScientist
But if you are only looking at natural disaster risk, you may be ignoring the far more important risks which come from humans. Crime and traffic accidents would rank highest, but industrial and infrastructural accidents may also be fatal -- eg exploding gas pipelines, collapsing bridges and buildings, dam failure, flying ice and blade debris from exploding wind turbines, etc. (It is not commonly known, but nuclear power plants are the safest form of power production)

If you focus on safety from crime and disorder, the safest cities in the world are to be found in Switzerland and Japan, according to Mercer Human Resource Consulting. According to Expatify's list, Switzerland sits on top, and Japan isn't even in the top 10 safest -- presumably due to Japan's proximity to age-old enemies China and Russia.

Some persons are concerned with mitigating a possible increased risk of global disaster connected with the year 2012. Another website deals specifically with an anticipated (by some) 2012 "pole shift," and the search for the safest place in the world for dealing with such a disaster.

Al Fin disaster forecasters expect the year 2012 to be no more catastrophic than Y2K was, and only slightly more disastrous than carbon climate catastrophe and peak oil doom. Standard precautions for unanticipated events -- solar flare, EMP, NBC terrorist attack, Obama government debt default etc. -- remain in effect for the foreseeable future. Other recommendations: Do not build your house on the flood plain. Do not build your house in an avalanche zone. Do not be the first one to inhabit a newly opened gentrification zone. More advice to come.

US Crime Rates

The College Imperative and the Coming Idiocracy

More: Now we are learning that as many as 85% of US college graduates are forced by debt to move back in with their parents when they leave college. Perhaps someone should have told their parents this was going to happen, before the fact?

For several decades, American children have been pushed toward a college education as the path to life and career success. More and more children are enrolling in college -- over 70% of American high school graduates enrolled in college over the past decade. Yet there are many reasons to believe that this rush to a college education is not only counter-productive, but may be downright destructive to a society.

Image Source
It has been argued persuasively that a rigorous 4 year college degree can only be put to good use by a person at or above the 80th percentile of IQ. Forcing more people into the system requires a dumbing down of admissions, a dumbing down of course work, and a dumbing down of evaluations and credentials.

If 70.1% of high school graduates enroll in a college or university, how does a college degree give you an advantage over the rest of the population? Back in the early 1960s, Americans didn't need to go to college. We were a creditor nation with a strong manufacturing base. With an unemployment rate of only 5%, jobs were available to almost everybody. Less than 50% of American high school graduates enrolled into college. For those who did attend college and graduate with a degree, it was actually something special that made you stand out from the rest of the field, because not everybody had one.

...The current college education bubble is one of the largest bubbles in U.S. history. The college bubble has been fueled by the U.S. government's willingness to give out cheap and easy student loans to anybody who applied for them, regardless of if they will ever have the ability to pay the loans back. Student loan debt in America is now larger than credit card debt, but unlike credit card debt, student loan debt can't be discharged in bankruptcy. _CollegeBubble

The situation is even worse for women. Women who go put all their energies into the higher education bubble and a career, all too often risk dying childless and unloved, and deeply in debt besides. Even so, the proportion of women attending college is growing and approaching 60% as the proportion of men continues to fall toward 40%.

It is the most intelligent and best educated women who are choosing careers over motherhood, while the least intelligent women are bearing the lioness' share of children. Given the choice of sex partners by less intelligent women, it is likely that the average intelligence of newcomers to society is declining -- a dysgenic process leading to Idiocracy.

GNXP
The same trend toward higher proportion of births from low-IQ populations is taking place in nations across the western world -- in no small part due to the push for more children to go to college, particularly women.

Many other potentially catastrophic side effects of the "college imperative" are put on display in the documentary "College Conspiracy." The college bubble is a source of massive capital misallocation and extreme (often frivolous) debt, for youth just beginning their lives. The psychological impact of living under so much debt is incalculable. Many young people must postpone thoughts of marriage and raising a family for many years -- and sometimes indefinitely -- due to massive educational debt. And the problem is only growing worse over time.

Is college a waste of time? No, it is a waste of lives and a waste of human capital. The college imperative is becoming the waste of the future -- the midwifing of the Idiocracy.

Oceans: More Complex and Resilient than We Know

Wiki
Popular culture is soaking in the dogma that "humans are killing the oceans" and "man is destroying the planet." But science is so abysmally ignorant about what is actually happening in the seas and on land, that the faux environmentalist message of doom is based upon a blooming ignorance, and little else.

Take a recent declaration of "plankton apocalypse" by researchers from Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia. Faux environmentalists seized on the single, unsubstantiated report as confirmation that the end of the world is near. More knowledgeable and intelligent persons knew -- or at least sensed -- that the Dalhousie report was hagwash. And so it seems to have been. Much of modern published "science" dealing with the environment and climate is unmitigated hogwash, albeit politically correct.

But there is much valid and valuable science to be learned from the oceans, if one can work objectively and without prejudicial biases.

Physorg

"The big mystery about bacteria is what they are doing in nature," Whitman said. "The organisms metabolize compounds for their own needs. We need to understand what they are getting out of it to understand what it means for the ocean, and now it will be possible to look at the environmental importance of this process and how it's regulated." That will help to answer the "why" of the two sulfur fates. _Physorg

Notice that the U. of Georgia scientists are microbiologists -- not "climatologists." Although the microbiologists link their study to climate -- for reasons of funding among others -- their results help to expose the abysmal ignorance of climate "science" with regards to the oceans and cloud formation.

SeaFriends

Scientists have discovered that marine diatoms, tiny phytoplankton abundant in the sea, have an animal-like urea cycle, and that this cycle enables the diatoms to efficiently use carbon and nitrogen from their environment.

The researchers, from the J. Craig Venter Institute (JCVI) and other institutions, published their findings in this week's issue of the journal Nature.

The team, led by lead author Andrew Allen from JCVI and co-author Chris Bowler, Institute of Biology, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, believes that the cycle could be a reason for the domination of diatoms in marine environments, especially after upwelling events--the upward movement of nutrient rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface.

In response to ocean upwelling, diatoms are able to quickly recover from prolonged periods of nutrient deprivation and rapidly proliferate. _Physorg

NatureHere again, we see a significant finding that relates importantly to global carbon balance, ocean phytoplankton levels, and atmospheric oxygen levels. How many other momentous and paradigm-changing discoveries are waiting for humans to discard their politically correct prejudices in order to better perceive the reality of the universe?

Taken from an earlier posting at Al Fin the Next Level

Women: Go to College and Die Childless and Unloved

That seems to be one of the messages coming out of the latest US census report. Apparently women who go to college and postpone childbearing are considerably less likely to ever have children.

Fertility researcher Karen Guzzo, an assistant professor of sociology at Kutztown University in Pennsylvania, says many women "are probably not choosing never to have children, so much as … they're not forming relationships because they're investing in their education and careers."

...•Women with a college degree are experiencing what the bureau calls a "delayer boom" — they're having babies at later ages than other women and having fewer children overall. _USAToday

Here are other fascinating findings from the census report:

Women with less than a high school education had three times as many births as women with at least a bachelor's degree. Eighty-three percent of women 25 to 34 with less than a high school education had given birth at twice the percentage recorded by women with at least a bachelor's degree (42 percent).

...-- By age 40 to 44, white non-Hispanic women (20.6 percent) were more likely to be childless than Hispanic women (12.4 percent), black women (17.2 percent) and Asian women (15.9 percent). Black women were also more likely to be childless than Hispanic women. Asian women did not differ from black or Hispanic women. _ChicagoTribune

Women who narrow their focus to just their careers often unwittingly fritter away any chance for motherhood they may have had.

I know...that not being a mother means there is a part of me which remains unused, a love that will be forever unexpressed. I know that what any mother describes as the most profound love she has ever known is, to me, a locked door — there is so much love I will never be able to give, wisdom and understanding I cannot share, shelter and solace I cannot provide.

...My regrets will always linger. My life is a poorer place for not having children, and I am less of a woman for not being a mother. There is a vast realm of experience and growth I will never know. _DailyMail

Women who have blindly shut themselves off from motherhood in their fertile youth often try to project an attitude of indifference and lack of regret to the outside world. But inside herself, she must face the truth of the things she will never know, and the love she will never share.

On the larger scale, for the western world this means that too many her most intelligent women will never have children. Less intelligent and uneducated women will take their place in the birthing wards, and less intelligent children will fill the classrooms, playgrounds, and public spaces of the future.

The US has its poor and uneducated Mexican immigrants, Europe has its poor and uneducated immigrants from MENA, SS Africa, and Asia. The demographic displacement plays out sans fanfare or announcement, to general public indifference.

But the longterm fallout will be severe, as the average population IQ sinks below the level necessary for a complex society to sustain its infrastructure.

Taken from a piece published earlier at abu al-fin

Special Note: An earlier Al Fin posting has been "disappeared" by a Blogger glitch in the course of the blog host updating to a new version. Al Fin is lucky to have only lost one posting. Many bloggers lost several articles, and some lost their entire blog -- at least temporarily.

The previously published piece will be re-published when it becomes available, along with comments which are presumably still attached to it.

AF

Who Really Wants to Solve the Energy Problem and Who Really Wants Most Humans to Simply Disappear?

An important difference in philosophy toward energy divides future oriented persons from faux environmentalist lefty-Luddite dieoff.orgiasts:

"If this machine [EMC2 Bussard IEC fusion device] works as we hope it will work, it will probably establish a firm technical foundation," he said. "People may say, 'It's a big jump and you shouldn't be doing this.' But every year that the energy problem doesn't get solved ... costs tens of billions of dollars. Sometimes waiting too long is not a good thing. If you look at the solutions, you might say, 'Can we afford to wait?'" _CosmicLog

CosmicLog
The energy starvation approach taken by Obama, lefty-Luddite faux environmentalists, and the European greens, aims to drastically reduce human agriculture and industry -- and consequently, the human population. But rational, forward-thinking groups and persons are working hard to "solve the energy problem." Such rational, future-oriented persons are the enemies of everything the modern political and environmental left is dedicated to.

Although fusion is the process behind the power of the sun and an exploding H-bomb, physicists have never been able to achieve a net energy gain in a controlled fusion reaction. But based on the experiments so far, Park thinks there's a chance that it could be done in a sufficiently large Wiffleball reactor, costing on the order of $100 million to $200 million. That sounds like a pretty good deal, especially in comparison with the $3.5 billion that's been spent so far on fusion research at the National Ignition Facility and the $20 billion expected to be spent on the international ITER fusion project.

...Don't expect weekly updates about EMC2's progress. "Currently all our funding comes from the Navy," Park said. "That's our customer. Our customer desired that we keep most of our progress confidential. ... They're somewhat concerned about making too much hype without delivering an actual product."

But if WB-8 and the follow-up studies are successful, the Navy won't stand in EMC2's way.

"Our understanding is they want us to be successful," Park said. "They want us to provide something for our sponsors. They also want us to do well commercially as well, as long as we remain US-owned and control the technology."_CosmicLog

Canada's BC-based General Fusion recently received a capital boost from Amazon's Jeff Bezos

Mainstream fusion approaches have been ongoing since World War II, but in practise have been bulky, overpriced, overstaffed, impractical, and probably never actually meant to accomplish more than milking research funds out of government coffers.

China is planning to mine Helium-3 from the surface of the moon to use as fuel in future nuclear fusion devices.

M. Simon's IEC Fusion Technology blog, and Brian Wang's NextBigFuture blog do a good job of following progress in IEC fusion and other alternative fusion technologies.

Nuclear energy (fusion, advanced fission, and other forms of nuclear energy not yet well-defined or developed) is the best approach to large scale reliable energy into the distant future. As the technology becomes more portable, humans will be able to carry their powerplants and "artificial suns" with them wherever they go.

But if you are like the greens who populate the Obama administration and governments/intergovernments of the western world, you want humans to slash energy production to the bare bone. The end result of such a reactionary lefty-Luddite policy would be a slow but accelerating return to a "dark ages" of science and technology, with an inevitable mass die-off of individuals at the margins. Not coincidentally, most current inhabitants of Earth are living at the margins.

Cross-posted at Al Fin Energy

"Flynn Effect" Contradicts Heritability of Intelligence?

One of the quickest paths to career suicide for an academic or any public figure, is to assert that human intelligence is genetically bounded, and roughly 50 - 80% heritable. The preponderance of scientific evidence points toward a genetic limiting of the "g factor", commonly associated with intelligence, with substantiating research coming from China. And yet the existence of the "Flynn Effect" -- the apparent rise in IQ test scores across several national populations over the past century -- has led many people to suggest that the IQ measure is too changeable to be a true indication of genetically "determined" intelligence.

Average IQ scores in many nations have apparently risen by between 5 points and 25 points per generation, over much of the past century. The increase has come largely in the measure of "fluid intelligence," which is one measure of problem-solving capacity.

Explanations for this general, but uneven, trend include better nutrition, better education and familiarity with testing, a more stimulating childhood environment, better control of childhood infectious disease, and an increase in hybrid vigour from less inbreeding of populations. Changes in variance for the different sample distributions can also introduce problems in interpreting such a trend.

The issues of general human intelligence, and the genetics of intelligence, are complex and multi-factorial. Many genetic and epigenetic factors are involved in the "biological bounding" of human intelligence, as well as other biological and environmental factors which bear on gene expression.

It is never a question of "either genetics or environment," but is always both. Thus it is not a question of genetic "determination" of intelligence, but rather a genetic bounding of intelligence. It can be easier to understand that measures such as height potential or "tallness" are "genetically bound" (in the absence of hGH and other exogenously administered growth factors). Similarly, intelligence potential is genetically bound in the absence of NZT or other hypothetical efficacious brain boosters.

So are people really getting smarter? The Flynn effect does not seem to be particularly relevant to the high IQ end of the distribution. So the smarter people do not seem to be getting smarter. But part of the lower end of the distribution seems to have moved toward the middle, and parts of the middle may have moved toward the higher end, on IQ test scores.

"Flynn Effect" improvements in scores seem to have slowed consiberably in advanced nations over the past 20 years. Whatever the cause of the trend, it may have largely played itself out in those nations. But if better nutrition, higher levels of stimulation, and lower infectious disease load are at least partially responsible for the trend of rising IQ scores, we should expect improvements in scores across the more impoverished areas of the third world which are able to move out of poverty.

How much of an improvement? One possible answer would be to look at the children of affluent persons in third world nations, as a "preview of coming scores." Rich people's children are generally provided with the best medical care, education, and generally more intellectually stimulating environments. Look at the top end of performance for the most advantaged children in these countries. What do you find?

You will find the "gifted" and "advantaged" in countries across Subsaharan Africa topping out at 1 standard deviation below average populations of the advanced world and about 2 standard deviations below gifted children in the advanced world. In most of tribal Asia, gifted and advantaged groups top out at roughly 1 standard deviation below their counterparts in advanced countries -- higher than Africans but significantly lower on average than East Asians and Europeans.

Similarly, you can look at the segment of African American children in the US which is most advantaged and gifted, and find persistent IQ score gaps between this group and far less advantaged European and East Asian children -- who nonetheless score higher on IQ and aptitude tests than their more advantaged black cohorts.

It is wrong to assume that the Flynn Effect will raise the overall average human IQ score of Earth, and it is wrong to assume that it will equalise IQ scores between population groups which have maintained stable and long-lasting differences in IQ scores over time.

Whenever nutrition, education, medical care, and intellectual stimulation are roughly equal, the genetic component in bounding intelligence comes to the forefront. Of course there is always room to improve on all those counts -- and on other determinants of intelligence which have not yet been discovered or delineated. But underneath it all, is the genetic component which will never be equalised, but which may well be compensated for with clever science and technology, in the future.

Al Fin cognitive scientists and psychometricians feel that the nutritional and infectious disease components were of limited relevance to the Flynn Effect in the advanced world since the 1940s -- except among truly impoverished populations, which are rare in the western developed world. Other explanations for the increase in scores which are more likely include increased early childhood stimulation and a greater familiarity with test taking.

The "critical window of development" theory is likely to be quite pertinent to the Flynn Effect in western populations over the past century. If a child is exposed to language, music, math, executive function training, and certain types of abstract thinking within the critical developmental timeframe, it is more likely that he will emerge from that period with better developed skills.

IQ gains in childhood that come from a highly stimulatory intellectual environment may not be permanent, however. And not all children will tolerate such external manipulations well. But the more cognitive and behavioural competencies the child is given at an early age (within reason), the more likely he will be to retain at least some of them. Each child is an individual and should be treated as such.

In conclusion, the Flynn Effect is a variable and limited trend in the rise of IQ scores across many nations. It should be yet another reminder of the remarkable complexity of human intelligence and behaviour, all of which derive ultimately from the human genome.

Megafoundation links and views on intelligence

Chile GDP Growth at 15.2% a Year as of March 2011

"Chile has always been held out as a model for Latin America, but the reality is ... it's now a model for the U.S.," he said.

Corporate taxes are the second lowest in Latin America at 18%, behind Paraguay's 10%. The Latin average is 28%.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs' chief economist for Latin America, Alberto Ramos, says Chile has wisely fostered growth by reducing the size of government and not printing too much money.

In 2011, it cut government spending to 5% of GDP, or $700 million, more than its projected 5.5%. So GDP has room to grow 6.4%, rather than 6% as first estimated.

Those lessons could be duplicated here with the ideas found in the Ryan budget, the Tea Party's policy ideas or even from the Chamber of Commerce. _IBD

Chile is a long narrow country along the southernmost strip of the western seacoast of South America. It is one of the few Latin American countries to take capitalism and free markets seriously. Consequently, Chile is on a stronger economic footing than most of the rest of Spain and Portugal's former colonies of the western hemisphere.

A year ago, Chile lay in rubble, victim of the world's fifth most powerful earthquake. So Chile's 15.2% growth is a big bounce from a bad setback.

But it shouldn't be dismissed as an anomaly. It's a showy number, but not the only one.

The same day Chile released its data, Goldman Sachs raised its 2011 growth forecast for the country to 6.4% from 6%. In its annual regional business index, Latin Business Chronicle ranked Chile as having the best business climate in Latin America in 2011.

Such numbers are so alien to the U.S. in the economically debilitated Obama era, it makes sense to look at what Chile has done.

First, Chile's policies for long-term growth were put into effect in the 1980s by the group of Milton Friedman-inspired economists known as the Chicago Boys.

Under them, Chile's pension privatization cost nothing and left the country with no net debt. The private funds now hold assets worth 90% of GNP ($185 billion) — capital used to develop the country. Already, Chile's education and infrastructure are the best in Latin America as a result.

Second, there's free trade, of which Chile is a global champion, signing at least 58 treaties to gain access to 2 billion customers.

That's a big reason Chile is close to full employment and is scrambling to attract growth-hungry U.S. entrepreneurs — and getting them. _IBD

Obama has chosen to rudely yank the US in the opposite direction, toward larger and more expensive government, exploding debt, greater divisiveness in the political and social sphere, and a ruinous expansion of dependency on government handouts and paychecks. Obama's revolution sounds more like the prelude to a new dark ages and reactionary socialist quagmire.

If forced to choose between Obamanomics and Chilinomics, which would you choose? Who is John Galt?

Artificial Intelligence: Experts Admit that AI Stinks

Marvin Minsky, Patrick Winston, Noam Chomsky, and other thinkers, researchers, engineers, and scientists, think that artificial intelligence has gone wrong. And the way things have been going, it is not likely that AI researchers will get on "the right track" for some time -- since most of them cannot seem to understand the problem.

Several up and coming AI workers (plus Ray Kurzweil) have predicted that human-level AI will be achieved within the next 10 to 20 years. Where is the progress which they can point to, in order to justify these claims? Within their own imaginations, apparently. According to some of the thinkers and AI pioneers quoted at the link above, the problem of AI is not being approached correctly. One of the most piercing criticisms of the field seems to be that it is focusing on tactics rather than strategy.

...clearly, the AI problem is nowhere near being solved. Why? For the most part, the answer is simple: no one is really trying to solve it. This may come as a surprise to people outside the field. What have all those AI researchers been doing all these years? The reality is that they have largely given up on the grand ambitions of AI and are instead working on increasingly specialized subproblems: not just machine learning or natural-language understanding, say, but issues within those areas, like classifying objects or parsing sentences. _TechnologyReview

This is clearly true. What is tragic is that a large proportion of the current crop of top-level AI researchers do not seem to understand the difference between strategy and tactics, in the context of AI. Strategy in AI calls for much deeper level thinking than tactics, which may in fact be beyond the capacity of most researchers -- and even beyond the range of philosophers such as Dan Dennett, who has relatively low expectations for human-level AI in the foreseeable future.

As brilliant as earlier AI researchers a John McCarthy, Marvin Minsky, Seymour Papert may be (and may have once been) in their hay-day, the extent of the problem of human-level AI was too poorly defined for anyone to grasp the challenge.

Modern researchers who make boastful claims for the likelihood of achieving human-level AI in 10-20 years do not have that excuse. Clearly neither Kurzweil nor the other AI hopefuls truly have a grasp of the problem as a whole. And that failure will be their undoing.

What would it take to succeed at human-level AI? A closely-knit, multidisciplinary team of thinkers willing to try outlandish and counter-intuitive approaches to the problem -- well out of the mainstream. To achieve human-type machine intelligence, high level expertise in one's field is but the barest beginning, hardly a single step in the journey of a thousand miles. One must also have a child-like approach to the world, be both brilliant and incredibly humble in the face of the ineffable, and be able to integrate complex ideas from both within and without his own field of expertise into a new, working holism.

Of course it sounds like psycho-babble, but when approaching something far too complex for words, such failures of communication are inevitable. Al Fin cognitive engineers recommend that the concepts of "embodied cognition" and "preverbal metaphor" be kept foremost in in the minds of any hopeful AI developers.

For everyone else, don't get your hopes up too high. Higher education in the advanced world -- particularly in North America -- is moving into serious difficulty, which means that research facilities and funding are likely to be cut back, perhaps severely. The economies of the advanced nations, and the US in particular, are being badly mismanaged, which means that private sector efforts will also likely be cut back. The problem may require the emergence of an individual with the brilliance of Einstein, the persistence of Edison, and the wide-ranging coherent creativity of a da Vinci.

In other words, people need to become smarter -- at least some people. Then they can learn to evolve very smart machines. And perhaps to interface with networks of these very smart machines. Then, possibly, using this symbiotic intelligence to design even smarter people.

Because let's face it: Humans -- especially PC-cultured humans -- will only take us to the Idiocracy, sooner or later. And the Idiocracy will be not only stupid, but downright brutal.

Tips for Surviving a Zombie Apocalypse

Riverboat Zombie Survival Compound
The imaginative survival scheme pictured above should provide a creative boost to your survival planning efforts. Here are a number of things to keep in mind when planning for your apocalypse of choice:

Basic Considerations for Planning Survival Compounds

100 Items that Disappear from the Shelves First In a Panic

Homemade Fuels: PDF Handbook for Downdraft Gasifiers

FEMA PDF Plans for Homemade Stratified Downdraft Gasifier

PDF Ideas for making your own propane from bio-feedstocks PDF

More on biopropane from MIT Technology Review

You can run a gasoline generator, tractor, or automobile with gasifier-produced syngas, from wood chips etc.

Use your imagination to discover ways to provide the items most in demand in a crisis. You may have the kernel for a profitable business to see you through the apocalypse of choice. Accept only gold, silver, or high grade ammunition as payment.

Previously published at Al Fin Potpourri