China: "An Unsettling and Unending Vista of Emptiness?"
Most of the modern worldwide commodities bubble is being driven by demand from China -- both directly and indirectly. China's GDP continues to impress the outside world's economic gurus and analysts. But "it's not the quantity of GDP that matters, it's the quality." If, after the collapse of much of China's huge export market, China's economic growth is now being built upon ghost infrastructure (to nowhere), a financial reckoning will eventually come. When that happens, what will global commodities markets do?
As western economies begin to crumble and even China’s cheap manufactured items become too expensive, the Asian powerhouse could be in big trouble. Maybe even more trouble than the western economies.More from the Atlantic
Fact is, its domestic market isn’t robust enough to take up the slack. Not nearly robust enough. The government overlords can only keep the factories running, people employed and inventories piling up for so long.
At some point, even the Chinese must submit to the inexorable forces of supply and demand. Factories will be shuttered. Massive layoffs will ensue. Unrest will rise among millions of Chinese factory workers (nee peasants). _EconomicCollapse
Dramatic Slowdowns in China Coming
If your investment strategy is based upon a continuing exponential growth in demand for petroleum and other commodities, it may be time for a rethinking.
Certainly most believers in "peak oil doom" are counting on continued high global demand, to make their dreams of doom come true. For those in better tune with the global economic and demographic symphony, it is not too late to move away from the groupthink to a more justifiable position.
Further, if you are an American who is coming to see your president as a combination of Nixon's paranoia and Carter's incompetence, you may want to take a look a some "going Galt" options that many of your cohorts are eyeing.
More interesting takes on why the government -- any government -- is not a friend to your financial well-being, by Doug Casey
The US population is drowing in debt and demographic decline. The same twin disasters are beginning to take hold of many European nations, if they are not careful about who immigrates. Japan and Russia may well be beyond the point of demographic return, for their core populations.
As long as the "intelligensia" of the world can be distracted by hysteric nightmares of carbon climate catastrophe, overpopulation doom, resource scarcity doom, ecological collapse, and other figments of inadequate and undisciplined minds, attention of the masses will be diverted from the genuine disaster creep of debt and demographics.
Labels: China collapse, commodities, Doug Casey, economic depression
posted by al fin at 10:37 am
4 Comments:
As long as the "intelligensia" of the world can be distracted by hysteric nightmares of carbon climate catastrophe, overpopulation doom, resource scarcity doom, ecological collapse, and other figments of inadequate and undisciplined minds, attention of the masses will be diverted from the genuine disaster creep of debt and demographics.
Overpopulation is real. The UN just revised predictions upwards. Do we really think that third world folks are going to control their increase like the Chinese and Europeans?
But China is continuing to expand electricty production 10% a year. The relationship between electricty usage and GNP is robust and they don't have unused power plants.
"Overpopulation is real."
It is very important to understand just what is real about "overpopulation," and what is merely in the eyes of the beholder.
In the absence of widespread famine, overpopulation of the third world is contingent upon whether corrupt and impoverished third world nations continue to trade with and receive aid from more advanced nations.
You are correct in the sense that if all contact between the advanced world and the third world -- especially subsaharan Africa -- were cut off, a significant dieoff would occur particularly in cities.
As for future growth in population of the third world, that is also contingent upon continued trade with and aid from more advanced nations, propping up many third world nations' populations far above what could normally be supported.
Neil: Yes it does take a lot of electricity to build ghost cities and ghost infrastructure.
In the absence of widespread famine, overpopulation of the third world is contingent upon whether corrupt and impoverished third world nations continue to trade with and receive aid from more advanced nations.
Bingo. The way to get more Third World poor people is to keep giving them food and money that they have not earned so that they can make more poor people.
Children are cheaply produced in mass quantities by inexperienced help. Jobless Third World layabouts are even better at producing them if you're willing to have your tax money sent to them.
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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell
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