Homemade High Voltage Coilgun: When Timeout Is Not Enough

Raising a bright and willful child is not always easy. For the times when a timeout does not convince the little tyke to conform to the plan, a shock from a high voltage coil will often do the trick. And if not? A rubber-tipped metallic projectile fired from this homemade coilgun will almost certainly induce compliance. Particularly if you emphasise that the rubber tip can always be removed. ;-)

Oh, about the unconventional child-rearing practises above? Just kidding. I have always been more of a Montessori custodian myself.

From Makezine via Popsci

Genes and IQ: The Connection is Real, But Complex

Robert Plomin, at King's College London, is reporting on a study of 4,000 British children which suggests that over 200 genes are responsible for superior reasoning ability and IQ. More:

SCIENTISTS have identified more than 200 genes potentially associated with academic performance in schoolchildren.

Those schoolchildren possessing the "right" combinations achieved significantly better results in numeracy, literacy and science.

The finding emerged from a study of more than 4000 British children to pinpoint the genes and genetic combinations that influence reasoning skills and general intelligence.

One of its main conclusions is that intelligence is controlled by a network of thousands of genes with each making just a small contribution to overall intelligence, rather than the handful of powerful genes that scientists once predicted.

The researchers believe their work could eventually lead to genetic tests to predict babies' academic potential.

"This kind of research could help us develop genetic tests to predict which kids are at risk of developing problems with their schooling, so that we could intervene to help them," said Robert Plomin, professor of behavioural genetics at the Institute of Psychiatry at King's College London, who will describe his work today at a meeting of the Royal Society.

_Australian

Scientists have known for years how important gene patterns are to the development of the brain. Specific gene variants can have a crucial effect on the wiring of the brain, and on the speed and efficiency of brain functioning. Individual genes have been identified, which are felt to have an influence on human intelligence, but it is the larger pattern of gene combinations which must be studied and understood.

Human intelligence and cognition are too complex to rely on any one gene. But the computational methods to make sense out of the massive interplay of the hundreds of genes which may affect intelligence have not always been available, or trustworthy.

But slowly, as scientists learn to study the interactions of hundreds of genes, the relationship between human intelligence and gene variants can become more clear. It is an important area of study. Only by thoroughly understanding how our genes make us what we are -- in partnership with our environment -- can we find the best ways to grow into the sort of humans who can boldly step into the hazardous future, and go where things are really scary. But in a good way.

Energy and the Wealth & Poverty of Nations

Image Source via Robert Hargraves

Energy is the crucial factor which determines how well a people can live. In fact, the availability of energy also determines how many people can live comfortably in a given area. Leftists in the faux environmental movement want to shut down energy so as to eliminate at least 90% of the humans currently living on Earth.

Giving society cheap, abundant energy ... would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun. - Paul Ehrlich, ``An Ecologist's Perspective on Nuclear Power'', May/June 1978 issue of Federation of American Scientists Public Issue Report

If you ask me, it'd be a little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy because of what we would do with it. We ought to be looking for energy sources that are adequate for our needs, but that won't give us the excesses of concentrated energy with which we could do mischief to the earth or to each other."
—Amory Lovins, The Mother Earth - Plowboy Interview, Nov/Dec 1977, p. 22 _YVY_via_SeekerBlog

ImageSource

The map above is a look at world poverty by nation. The image below is a graphic look at global electric power production by region and nation. The comparison is stark.

ImageSource

With an abundant and relatively inexpensive source of energy, the Earth could comfortably support ten times the current human population of Earth -- living in health and prosperity. But such a large population would want to utilise the third dimension for both living and agricultural space. If they had the energy, it would be simple.

The political left, of course, is taking the opposite tack of energy starvation. Choking off energy supplies will force a rapid and drastic population shrinkage across the third world -- via famine, sickness, war -- and across the developed world via a further dropping of already-low birthrates.

It is clear that Mr. Obama is taking the low road of energy starvation at this particular crossroads. It is the easy and mindless choice, thus it is the one he chooses.

The best choice is to breed a tougher breed of human -- a pioneer breed who is eager to take up the challenge of the vast spaces beyond the current limits of human habitation and expansion. More on that topic later.

Converting Oil Rigs to Idyllic Diving Resorts

SeaVentures Dive Resort

When you first discover the underwater wonderland of a thriving tropical coral reef, you will understand why people fly thousands and tens of thousands of miles for the experience. Off the east coast of Malaysian Borneo sits an abandoned oil rig that has been converted into a diving resort -- Seaventures. People come from Britain, Japan, China, and a few from the US.

"So far as we know, we're the only ones in the world using an oil rig as a hotel and diving platform," said Suzette Harris, the Singaporean owner. Her father-in-law, a regional Malaysian official, bought the rig in Singapore in 1988 (there, she said, "you can buy a used drilling platform just like you can buy a used boat."). He had it towed into Borneo waters.

No one would confuse the result with a luxury hotel. The 25 tiny guest rooms, although spotlessly clean, resemble those on a cruise ship that has seen better days. A visitor's room had a rusty metal locker without hangers to serve as a closet, and the reading lights and shower water heater didn't work. The air smelled from the oil powering the generators. For recreation, an employee band every few nights blasted rock music into the hours when one might have wanted to sleep. Meals were far from haute cuisine, although fresh and bounteous. A three-day, two-night scuba-diving package for $516, per-person double occupancy, includes room, meals, transfers, equipment rental and guarantees of a morning of three dives at Sipadan Island. _WSJ_via_ImpactLab

Not exactly luxury accomodations, but the surroundings should more than make up for the spartan lodgings.

Similar abandoned oil rigs sit idle around the world, when they could be put to very good use.

Underwater Paradise

For example, in the Gulf of Mexico off the US coast, there are many dozens of abandoned rigs that the Obama administration is demanding be dismantled and hauled away as trash. What a waste -- and by an administration that prides itself on its hope and change! Why not help to institute positive change, and turn the abandoned rigs into thriving ongoing concerns? It is easy to create artificial reefs which attract entire new ecosystems. Why not make it a part of an overall plan to rejuvenate the Gulf economy -- after the Obama Pelosi devastation and mismanagement following the BP oil spill?

Unfortunately, the O-P regime seems to be more concerned with destroying the ability of energy companies to make profits and stay in business, than it is with creating a thriving and prosperous nation. Too, too bad.

Emory's Smart New Mice are Cognitive Knockouts

Image Source

The hippocampus plays a key role in our ability to remember what happens to us, and in navigating our way through the world around us. There is a great deal about the hippocampus which remains unknown. Consider the hippocampal area CA2, pictured above. Recent research from the medical school at Emory University has found that in mice, knocking out a gene (RGS14) radically changes the activity of hippocampal CA2 -- leading to mice with markedly enhanced spatial learning and object recognition abilities, when compared with their littermate controls.

Here is more:

Mice with a disabled RGS14 gene are able to remember objects they'd explored and learn to navigate mazes better than regular mice, suggesting that RGS14's presence limits some forms of learning and memory.
The results were published online in the Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Since RGS14 appears to hold mice back mentally, John Hepler, PhD, professor of pharmacology at Emory University School of Medicine, says he and his colleagues have been jokingly calling it the "Homer Simpson gene."
RGS14 is primarily turned on in one particular part -- called CA2 -- of the hippocampus, a region of the brain known for decades to be involved in consolidating new learning and forming new memories. However, the CA2 region lies off the beaten path scientifically and it's not clear what its functions are, Hepler says.
RGS14, which is also found in humans, was identified more than a decade ago. Hepler and his colleagues have previously shown that the RGS14 protein can regulate several molecules involved in processing different types of signals in the brain that are known to be important for learning and memory. They believe RGS14 is a key control protein for these signals. _SD

Although the researchers have not identified any problems in the RGS14 knockout mice in terms of development or behaviour, it is too early to know whether such a simple gene knockout procedure in humans would be safe or effective -- for purposes of cognitive enhancement.

The finding is intriguing in the sense that the deletion of a single gene can have such a profound effect on the cognitive prospects of a mouse. A mutation in the right place could have the same result, in terms of improved learning. How many similar transformational surprises are waiting in the human genome?

We should not expect that any environmental intervention could come close to achieving a similar transformation of these specific cognitive skills as the genetic deletion achieved. Considering the somewhat conservative nature of evolution since the last great extinction event, it is unlikely that we have evolved in a way to take the greatest advantage of the potentials of our brains. In other words, our brains are likely to have many such genetic tweaks that are waiting to be discovered, to give us a leg up on our present and future challenges.

At this time it is still possible to envision a "next level" of human development. But such a hypothetical plane of development can only be reached by genetic means. How radical must such a transformation be? That depends upon where one starts. If humans continue on the present descent into Idiocracy, there will come a time when it will be too late to reverse the trend.

The easiest choice is to go back to sleep. Because, if you choose to be awake, the things you are forced to experience may be more than you can bear.

H/T Brian Wang

More on the "molecular conspiracy against plasticity" occurring in CA2

Faster than a $20 Hooker and At Least Twice as Fun

The X2 is an experimental helicopter being developed by Sikorsky, an American company, at a test-flight centre in Florida. It recently flew at more than 430kph (267mph), according to a report in Spectrum, published by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. _Economist

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Sikorsky's X2 experimental prototype is being developed in order to bring speed to the commercial helicopter industry. The X2 has already flown faster than the official speed record for helicopters, but not officially.

To make an official attempt on the record, Sikorsky will need to have the flight monitored by the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, which compiles airspeed records. But that is unlikely to happen until the X2 is going even faster. Later this year, Sikorsky hopes it will be zipping along at more than 460kph. The company, however, is interested in more than just breaking speed records. It plans to use the technology developed for the X2 in commercial helicopters.

...it uses two counter-rotating rotors that spin around the same axis, one positioned above the other. So in forward flight each rotor can produce an equal amount of lift on each side, thus providing balance. The idea has been around for some time, but it proved difficult to make it work properly.

What has changed are technological advances in aircraft engineering and control systems. Now, vibrations can be reduced using “active control”, which involves placing sensors around the helicopter to detect the onset of vibration and then using force generators on various parts of the frame to vibrate in such a way that they cancel out the original tremors. Advanced computer modelling has also made it possible to design more efficient rotors. A pusher propeller has been fitted at the rear of the X2 to provide extra oomph. According to the engineers, this propeller can also be used to slow the helicopter snappily. And computerised “fly-by-wire” controls allow the X2 to be flown relatively easily.

Sikorsky reckons that future helicopters built using the X2 technology would be extremely versatile machines. They would dash to and from a medical emergency a lot faster. They would also be very agile in flight, which would increase their capabilities in combat. Sikorsky has already produced a simulator so that potential customers can experience what these fast helicopters will be like to fly. Plenty of whirlybird pilots will be keen to get their hands on the real thing. _Economist

It may be some time before ducted fan technology is able to match the new capabilities of the X2. But I have a feeling that VTOL flying is going to become a lot more exciting.

H/T Bruce Hall

Don't Cry for Me, Obamanistas, Zombies, Slaves

An Argentinian Photo Album

When the leader of the world's superpower consciously embarks on a mission to destroy the integrity of his nation's economic and political infrastructure, one should understand the perversely tragic aspects of the situation. Mr. Obama's dreams of conquest over the evils of the colonial western world are near their climax. It is unfortunate that he lacks the insight into his own motivations, and that he fails to see the parallels between his own suicidally quixotic quest, and the many similar futile quests of leftist justice over the past century and more.

20 years after the collapse of Soviet Eastern Europe, and as Chavez' Venezuela falters and Castro is acknowledging the failure of his own revolution, Mr. Obama has just begun to institute his own revolution of destruction against the Great Satan of the Islamists, and the bane of leftists around the world.

Although it is still the world's superpower military hegemon and the economic anchor of the world's economy, the steep upward trajectory of the US government's debt was already a cause of concern even before Mr. Obama was elected. But Obama has increased the acceleration of economic doom by an order of magnitude -- and in so many ways that it is impossible not to suspect that it is an intentional agenda of destruction. The Obama Pelosi regime has made sure that there is no political way out of the quagmire, despite the worst the Tea Party may try to achieve to restore constitutional government.

Obama's plan does amount to an elaborate revolution and bloodless coup against the constitutional political and economic protections put in place over 2 centuries ago. The energy starvation aspects of the Obama Pelosi regime alone are enough to destroy the private sector eventually, but the hidden malignant aspects of Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank act -- among many other new regulations, provisions, and laws -- will accelerate the destruction beyond the comprehension of those who think in simple political and economic terms. And so it goes without end -- an ambitious coup against the "negative aspects" of the US Constitution. Because Mr. Obama's genius cannot be constrained by such an ancient document of restraint.

And so it comes down to insurrection. But a bloodless coup does not require a bloody insurrection to counter it. In fact, Americans should not even want the America that existed before Obama's election -- although Obama Pelosi has made many Americans look back with nostalgia to pre-OP times.

What kind of insurrection will it take to bring about a constitutional government with equal protections under the law and abundant opportunities for expanding the economy?

A comment on a previous article -- which mentioned voluntary alteration of tax compliance by citizens -- contains the beginning of an idea which needs to be expanded and transformed. But governments cannot go on indefinitely spending more than they receive. The government printing press contains the ink of its own destruction, as the Perons of Argentina and other tyrannical populists throughout history have learned to their regret.

More on the peaceful insurrection later. Assuming the Obama zombies allow that option.

The Brain: Wired and Introspective

ImageSource

The brain contains tens of billions of neurons, and trillions of synaptic connections (plus unknown numbers of other types of connections). Scientists from several universities are collaborating in an attempt to improve our understanding of the brain's "wiring diagram." At its best, it will still be crude compared to the real thing, but it's a start.

Working with $30 million and just half a decade, the Human Connectome Project aims to create a first-of-its-kind map of the brain’s complex circuitry, detailing every connection linking thousands of different regions of the brain.

The team consists of 33 researchers at nine different institutions, including Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and the University of Minnesota, the lead universities in the effort and the sites where much of the brain-scanning will take place. Their success will depend in part on another HCP grant to another research consortium headed up by Massachusetts General Hospital and UCLA that will develop advanced, custom brain scanners with higher spatial resolution and increased sensitivity. The funds themselves come from various bodies within the National Institutes of Health.

How big is the project? It’s at least 90 billion neurons big, but that doesn’t even convey the enormity and complexity of the human brain. There are something like 150 trillion synapses – the connections between neurons across which signals pass – that electrical signals must negotiate. These neurons and the connections between them make up the circuitry of the brain, and the HCP aims to create a better picture of that circuitry than we’ve ever had before. _PS

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But brain researchers cannot sit around on their hands until others provide them with a more detailed map of the brain. They must continue to muddle through with what they've got, in trying to understand how the brain creates the world. One interesting aspect of brain function is the variation in accuracy between different persons' judgement of the accuracy of their own educated guesses. Scientists at University College London looked at this question of introspective accuracy recently.

A specific region of the brain appears to be larger in individuals who are good at turning their thoughts inward and reflecting upon their decisions, according to new research published in the journal Science. This act of introspection -- or "thinking about your thinking" -- is a key aspect of human consciousness, though scientists have noted plenty of variation in peoples' abilities to introspect...

...To begin, Fleming and Weil recruited 32 healthy human participants and showed them two screens, each containing six patterned patches. One of the screens, however, contained a single patch that was brighter than all the rest. The researchers asked the participants to identify which screen contained the brighter patch, and then to rate how confident they felt about their final answer. After the experiment, participants' brains were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI.

Fleming and the researchers designed the task to be difficult, so that participants were never completely sure if their answer was correct. They reasoned that participants who are good at introspection would be confident after making correct decisions about the patch, and less confident when they were incorrect about the patch. By adjusting the task, the researchers ensured all of the participants' decision-making abilities were on par with each others'—only the participants' knowledge of their own decision-making abilities differed.

"It's like that show, 'Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?'" said Weil. "An introspective contestant will go with his or her final answer when they are quite sure of it, and perhaps phone a friend when they are unsure. But, a contestant who is less introspective would not be as effective at judging how likely their answer is to be correct."

So, although each participant performed equally well at the task, their introspective abilities did vary considerably, the researchers confirmed. By comparing the MRI scans of each participant's brain, they could then identify a correlation between introspective ability and the structure of a small area of the prefrontal cortex. An individual's meta-cognitive, or "higher-thinking," abilities were significantly correlated with the amount of gray matter in the right anterior prefrontal cortex and the structure of neighboring white matter, Rees and his team found.

...The new study will be published in the 17 September issue of the journal Science. Science is published by AAAS, the nonprofit science society. _PO

This variation of introspective accuracy and depth is likely to play a crucial role in the development of cultures and civilisations. There should be little question that both environment and genetics play a role in the ultimate complexity of the pre-frontal cortex and other cortical and sub-cortical centers which are involved. Testing the participants additionally for both IQ and executive functions (EF) would almost certainly reveal strong correlations between the three concepts.

Thinkers who develop complex cognitive structures must be able to "hold" multiple thoughts in their heads simultaneously, while weighing the "fitness" of slight variations in the cognitive models. These models must often be of a dynamic nature -- particularly for engineers and scientists of several types.

Popular culture tends to downplay the importance of the mental skills of top-level theorists and explorers of knowledge fields, but these are the people who determine the ongoing prosperity and security of a civilisation over time.

Western civilisation is going through a period of time when generations worth of capital is being skimmed and scavenged by a de facto ruling class, which values political correctness over real world validity -- as a matter of ruling class survival. That is too, too bad for the rest of us, who very much need for our institutions to be under the discipline of real world checks and balances....


Given how badly the ruling class is fucking up, I am mulling over a series of posts on the topic of "peaceful insurrection." You may want to consider what that term might mean. Hint: I am referring to something a bit more determined and forceful than the "Tea Party" type of anti-big-government political movement. Yet still peaceful. How can that be? More later.

Is it Real, Or is it an Elaborate Computer Simulation?

Tim Hunt, Nobel Prize winner in biology, confronts two students in "systems biology" about the difference between "computer simulated biology" and real experimental biology in this video.

There is a very real gap between hands-on experimentalists and those who make their lives in the world of computer models and simulations. This is as true in biology as it is in climate, or in cognitive science. It is too easy for a computer modeler to believe that he has demonstrated something about the real world, when all he has done is generate a hypothetical output which obeys delineated constraints. As complex as the model may be, the real world is far more so. And the complexity of the model does not necessarily accurately reflect real world conditions.

The hope for the future of science lies with those who are cross-trained in both modeling and experimentation. They may be the only ones who will understand how to illuminate the way forward through an increasingly complex jungle of fractal realities.

How Do You Begin to Prepare for Doombama?

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The IMF is worried about an impending social crisis due to massive long-term unemployment in the developed world. The duration of unemployment is skyrocketing, adding hardship upon hardship to societies which were already badly over-stretched by excessive debt.

"The labour market is in dire straits. The Great Recession has left behind a waste land of unemployment," said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's chief, at an Oslo jobs summit with the International Labour Federation (ILO)...."the world has not yet escaped a deeper social crisis". He called it a grave error to think the West was safe again after teetering so close to the abyss last year. "We are not safe," he said. _Telegraph

So, if the jobs are gone -- probably permanently -- how does a person prepare for the doom that comes as a result of Obama Pelosi?

If you are thinking that the US deserves whatever doom it gets (which seems to be President Obama's point of view), you may think that the rest of the world will be safe from the fallout. Unfortunately for non-Americans and expats, if the US goes down there will be nothing left to prevent global disorder. (Don't even imagine that a Chinese hegemony will act for the good of anyone except the corrupt Chinese CCP inner circle.)

Those -- including President Obama -- who have longed for the US to receive a "come-uppance" for their entire lives, may well get their wish. Most such persons either voted for Obama or cheered for his election from the sidelines. The celebration was not only misplaced, it was premature. After the world lives through an extended Obama depression and comes out on the other side, anyone who still feels like celebrating will be entitled.

More later.

Women More Easily Blinded by Science?

A study from Michigan State University's Sociology Department has found that women have been more easily conned into believing in "a scientific consensus for catastrophic anthropogenic global warming" and the impending climate death of the Earth, than have men. This, despite the fact that most top rank climate scientists are men, and presumably members of the oppressive patriarchy of old white males.

Once the ClimateGate emails became public knowledge (see here and here), it should have been obvious to most thinking persons that the methods being used by the controlling inner circle of IPCC affiliated climate science were not appropriate, nor were they in keeping with good scientific practises. The use of denial of access to data, pressuring scientific publications not to publish studies critical of the "consensus of the insiders", the denial of tenure to academics skeptical of the catastrophist viewpoint, the willingness to ignore scientific standards of information exchange -- even to the point of breaking national laws of freedom of information -- should have been enough to tip off any thoughtful individual. Clearly something stinks inside the sanctum sanctorum of mainstreamed catastrophist climate science.

Who is more likely to pick up on the huge contradictions inside the rapidly shredding catastrophist camp -- thinking men or thinking women? It is impossible to know without actually checking. Michigan State sociologists have checked, and found that women are not picking up on the discrepancies. Why not?

Why do such women put their trust in authority figures, even when these figures have proven themselves untrustworthy?

More on this topic later.

Bonus: 5 reasons why water vapour feedback may not be positive, [which would destroy virtually all modern climate models, if true.]

AND a PDF study looking at cloud feedback (PDF) [which also has the potential to obliterate the results of most climate models].

An Interesting Look at Japanese Culture via Blood Type

Source: Phlebotomist

Understanding the Belief in Peak Oil: Is The End Near?

Until we explore the entire planet as carefully as we did Oklahoma and Texas, our assessment of global oil reserves will have plenty of room for surprises. _Vaclav Smil

Repent, Sinners, The End is Near!

Deeply held beliefs go beyond evidence and logic. Thus they tend to be unfalsifiable, invulnerable to demonstrable facts or reason.

Take belief in Peak Oil Doom. There are several blurred and shifting definitions of "Peak Oil", but none of them stand up to sustained examination. With any belief -- such as belief in a deity -- as long as one is not pressed for a rigorous definition of exactly what it is one believes in, there is little point to the argument. So what, exactly is this "Peak Oil" that so many people either do or do not "believe in?" Is it:

1. The point at which half the world's oil supply has been extracted and consumed?
2. The point at which oil production is at its historically highest point?
3. The point at which the cost of oil production can only go up?
4. The point where it costs as much to produce the oil as the oil is worth?
5. The point where oil consumption outruns oil production?
6. The point at which old oil fields are depleted faster than new oil field can be found to replace them?
7. The point at which all the cheap oil has been used and only expensive oil is left?
8. None of the above
9. All of the above (including none of the above)

You might point out to the peak oil religionist that "authorities" have been declaring "Peak Oil" since the 1800s or before. Geologists, oil executives, government leaders, spy agencies, military organisations -- a wide array of authorities -- have declared peak oil every few years over the past 140 years or so. There is nothing new about this belief. But every new generation of believers is certain that it is living in "the last days of oil." Their belief is strong -- and unfalsifiable.

You can never really know whether what you have is "true peak oil" or "fool's peak oil" except perhaps in hindsight, and even then you may not live long enough to ever know the truth. Price controls on gasoline, for example, might artificially create supply shortages that last as long as the price controls, but clearly that is only one variety of "political peak oil." It goes away when the price controls are revoked.

Peak Oil believers -- like all religious believers -- rely upon "revealed truth", or argument from authority. Whether a retired geologist, an investment banker, an energy economist, a sleazy con artist, or whatnot -- a believer must have someone in whom he can place his trust. Once a belief is established, it extends tentacles deep beyond ordinary logic into the territory of faith -- which is not subject to reason.

What is the finding and development cost per barrel of oil these days? The figure has varied over the years, going up and down. From 2001:

Thanks to new exploration, drilling, and recovery technology, the worldwide finding and development cost per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) has dramatically declined over the last 20 years, from an average of about $21 in 1979–81 to under $6 in 1997–99 (in 2001 dollars) (9). _EnergyBulletin

A recent Citigroup source says that the finding and development cost has gone up to $18 in 2010, from 2004 when it was but $14. So you see that these costs can fluctuate over time, according to technology and politics. Keep in mind that the Obama dollar is worth less now than it was 30 seconds ago, so all costs in dollars should be standardised.

Another interesting question is the amount of oil that is left in the ground when a well is depleted. As technology improves, we are recovering a higher percentage of the oil -- meaning that we can now often go back to old and "depleted" wells and reap another rich harvest of oil.

At the same time, the recovery rate from world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% to-day. _Energy Bulletin

By 2030 more than 50 percent of the known oil will be recoverable. Also, by that time the amount of known oil will have grown significantly, and a larger portion of unconventional oils will be commonly produced, bringing the total amount of recoverable reserves to something between 4,500 billion to 5,000 billion barrels of oil. What’s more, a significant part of “new reserves” will not come from new discoveries, but from a new ability to better exploit what we already have. _SciAm

What is the "life index of world reserves?" It is the ratio between proven oil reserves and current production. In other words, about how long can we expect reserves to last? Funny thing about that, the life index of world reserves has been improving -- the opposite of what one might expect in the face of "Peak Oil."

All these factors partly ex-plain why the life-index of world reserves...has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003.

Today, all major sources estimate that proven world oil reserves exceed 1 trillion (10 12 ) barrels, while yearly consumption is about 28 billion barrels (10–13).

Overall, the world retains more than 3 tril-lion barrels of recoverable oil resources (14). _EnergyBulletin

North America has seen about a million exploratory oil wells, whereas the oil rich regions of the Persian Gulf have seen only a thousand or two. [S] The planet has barely been explored or surveyed for hydrocarbons in any significant terms.

What we are looking for here are demonstrable or refutable facts, observations, data. We are not looking for authority figures to put our faith in. That is for religious believers and disciples. The religious faithful argue from revealed authority. The rest of us choose to look at what we can see, touch, and reason with.

For example, the mundane reality that motivates modern oil production has a lot more to do with the development policies of oil dictatorships -- which shut out modern internation oil concerns -- than with how much or how little oil is in the ground.

Critics could note that new oil discov-eries are only replacing one-fourth of what the world consumes every year (fol-lowing a declining trend that began in the mid- 960s), and that increases in re-serves largely derive from upward revi-sions of existing stock. However, the real issue is that neither major producing countries nor publicly traded oil compa-nies are keen to invest money in substan-tial exploration campaigns. The countries richest in oil have minimized their oil in- estments during the last 20 years, main-ly for fear of creating a permanent excess capacity such as that which provoked the crisis in 1986 (when oil prices plummet-ed to below $10/bbl). In fact, countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq (which to-gether hold about 35% of the world’s proven reserves of oil) produce petroleum only from a few old fields, although they have discovered but not developed more than 50 new fields each. Moreover, in countries closed to foreign investments, the technologies and techniques used are, in most cases, obsolete.

Nevertheless, international public oil companies have faced two sets of limits to their expan-sion in the last 20 years. The first is inaccessibility to foreign in- estment in the largest and cheap-est reserves—those in the Persian Gulf. Second are the demands of financial markets, which for years have insisted that compa-nies provide unrealistic, short-term financial returns that are in-consistent with the long-term na-ture of oil investments. This has compelled private operators to reject op-portunities that would normally be deemed economically worthwhile. _EnergyBulletin

We would better understand the political undercurrents behind production fluctuations, if we were more aware of them and took them as seriously as they deserve to be taken. If a country lacks the technical expertise to develop an oil field -- or to retrieve as much oil as possible from that field -- production numbers are artificially depressed for political and bureaucratic reasons. The oil is still there, but you would never know this merely by looking at production figures.

Peak oil disciples and believers reap much secondary gain from their faith. An important bonus is the pride of knowing something that other people don't know -- the end is near. It takes something much more potent than mere logic and data to overcome such an advantage.

Taken from an earlier article at Al Fin Energy

Also see: Peak Oil Bites the Dust, which has an interesting discussion in comments after the article.

Are Baboons Running the Environmental Movement?

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Sorry, the title above is unkind -- to baboons. In reality, you would have to remove at least one half a baboon's brain for the primate to be as unintelligent as the average (faux) environmentalist. One of the latest of the host of environmental faux-llies is the organised movement against waste-to-energy gasification plants. Wisconsin legislators are trying to attract a gasification waste-to-energy plant to Milwaukee. But (faux) environmental organisations have banded together to stop them:

Earlier this year, the state Legislature passed a law that would qualify the waste-to-energy system as a renewable energy technology complying with the state’s green-power mandate. At the time, Gov. Jim Doyle said the technology has real potential to help us address the growing need for clean renewable power."

But bill was opposed by environmentalists who objected to the trash-to-energy project and its potential impact on air pollution. Environmental groups that are actively opposing these types of projects in other states have branded them as “incinerators in disguise.”

Josh Morby, a spokesman for Alliance Federated Energy, said that characterization is unfair because no incineration is involved in the plasma gasification process.

Under this technology, the municipal waste is not burned but is instead converted into a syngas that can be used to generate electricity, steam or biofuels. _JSOnline

Gasification -- particularly ultra-hot plasma gasification such as is being planned for Milwaukee -- reduces waste to its component atoms and plasma. Environmentalists may lack the brain power to understand the difference between simple incineration and plasma gasification, but most humans would perceive the distinction fairly quickly.

In New York state, SUNY Cobleskill plans to install a gasification plant on campus as part of a research and training program for the new Environmental and Energy Technology Program. Not a bad idea, given how much garbage is generated at the average institution of higher indoctrination learning. But SUNY plans to turn the gasification program into a 4 year degree! Sorry, SUNY, but while 4 years may be required for a rigorous thermochemical / thermomechanical waste and biomass to energy program, learning to tweak and operate one single gasifier should not take nearly so long.

Tampa Electric will be installing a 250 MW IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycle) demonstration plant in partnership with RTI. Not a bad idea. But what genius is forcing them to incorporate CO2 sequestration as part of the demonstration? Don't they know they will lose up to half the generated energy and do no one any good at all by sequestering the plant food otherwise known as CO2? Oh, yes -- the idiots geniuses at Obama - Pelosi's DOE!

And to prove that gasification is nothing if not versatile, companies in Israel, Colorado, and elsewhere are developing solar powered gasification plants, using concentrated sunlight to gasify biomass and waste.

Faux environmentalists, deep down, want to reduce the human population of Earth by at least 90%. You do not expect these neo-Luddites to be looking for solutions to real world problems such as potential energy shortages. No, they oppose every form of energy that might possibly work -- including nuclear, biomass gasification, IGCC for clean coal, shale gas, and so on.

It requires a lot of energy to support heavily sub-specialised civilisations such as those in the developed world. If your goal is to reduce the human population of the planet well below 1 billion members, cutting off the energy supply to civilisation would be one of the more obvious steps. Clearly, these quasi- half-baboons will not hesitate to take that step and any others they feel necessary to reach their goals.

Cross-posted to Al Fin Energy

Oligodendroglial Progenitor Cells Suddenly Sprout Neurons!

The study identified the new pyramidal neurons in a part of the brain not typically associated with neurogenesis, the piriform cortex. The piriform cortex receives not only olfactory information, but also inputs from regions of the brain that are involved in emotion regulation and memory formation. Because of its privileged access to diverse brain regions, the piriform cortex is capable of tying odor representations to other types of information that are important for a wide range of behaviors. In animals and humans, activation in the piriform cortex is linked to odor memory and the emotional qualities of odors. In rodents, activity in this region is related to sexual behavior. _HND

Source

Scientists from UC Davis have discovered that neurons are being created from non-neuron progenitor cells in the brains of mice in early adulthood. These new neurons can apparently go on to play an important role in transmitting signals to "widespread" parts of the brain.

"We used to think that the sole destiny of oligodendroglial progenitor cells was to become myelin-forming oligodendroglia," Pleasure said. "Later it was shown that they also can generate other kinds of glial cells as well. We now have demonstrated that these oligodendroglial progenitor cells, which are widely distributed in the brain, and persist throughout life, also give rise to a group of large cerebral cortical neurons. Thus, oligodendroglial progenitor cells are truly multipotent."

The researchers found that precursors of glial cells, called proteolipid promoter-expressing NG2 progenitors (PPEPs, pronounced Pee-peps), give rise to glutamatergic pyramidal neurons, an important type of brain cell that sends long-range excitatory signals. PPEPs belong to a class of glial precursor cells called oligodendroglial progenitor cells (OPCs). These cells have been discovered only recently, and they hold tremendous promise for stem-cell regenerative medicine. They are the largest proliferating population of cells in the mammalian brain and spinal cord, and they could replace or repair injured cells.

“This study shows very definitively that PPEPs generate new neurons, that these new neurons have all the morphological and structural features which suggest that they are functionally integrated into the existing circuitry,” said Fuzheng Guo, the study’s lead author and a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Neurology in the UC Davis School of Medicine.

...The current study follows findings published in 2009 that PPEPs in the immature mouse brain generate neurons in multiple regions, including the hippocampus and piriform cortex, and that these neurons survive into adulthood. They also found that PPEPs produced GABA-ergic interneurons in the immature brain. Prior to that study, scientists had assumed that the general class of glial precursor cells, called oligodendroglial progenitor cells (OPCs), could produce only glial cells, which create insulating sheets that wrap around neuronal projections and ensure speedy and reliable signal transmission. Instead, their results showed that these cells generate all three major cell types in the brain and spinal cord.

“Whether or not OPCs could form new neurons was not at all clear until our prior study,” Pleasure said.

The researchers focused on the piriform cortex in the current study because it was found to be a “hot spot” for PPEPs in the earlier study. The study was conducted using a genetic fate-mapping technique to track the lineage, or cell fates, of OPCs in the young adult brains of genetically-engineered mice. _HND

The study was in mice, but if similar mechanisms are at play in late adolescent and early adult humans, they might explain more of the differences between the adolescent and the adult brain.

We know that pathways of the brain develop over time, and that full maturation and myelinisation does not complete until the mid-twenties or slightly later. Late development of the pre-frontal cortex is probably part of the explanation for emotional and mental maturation in adulthood, but the development in early adulthood of new pathways involved in memory formation, emotional regulation, and sexual behaviours -- as described in the above study -- may provide deeper explanations into human emotional maturation.

Scientists will now have to look more carefully -- cast a wider net -- to try to understand the many nuances of brain development and the origination of new neurons and neuronal pathways. A few new answers, a lot of new questions.

China's Uncertain Economic Future

BI

Conventional economic wisdom sees China as the economic powerhouse of the future -- driving world economic demand for energy and commodities through most of the 21st century. Persistent annual GDP growth rates near or above 10% have made financial analysts confident that China's economic future is secure -- even if no one else's is.

But if this confidence in the rosy future of China is misplaced, then everything we are being told about the future prices of energy and commodities -- and about the state of the global economy -- is very likely wrong. Which means that the medium term forecast will call for catastrophic storms of a global economic nature. If China's economic resources are being squandered on a construction bubble which skews the economic numbers, consumes a huge portion of the world's commodities for nothing, feeds corruption at the highest levels, and misleads the economic analysts of the world as to the true prospects of China's economy -- we have a big problem.

Recent statistics show that there are about 64 million apartments and houses that have remained empty during the past six months, according to Chinese media reports. On the assumption that each flat serves as a home to a typical Chinese family of three (parents and one child), the vacant properties could accommodate 200 million people, which account for more than 15% of the country’s 1.3 billion population. But instead, they remain empty. This is in part because many Chinese believe that a home is not a real home unless you own the flat.
And so people prefer buying to renting, and as a result, the rental yield is relatively low.

This has fuelled worries that China’s property market is bubbling. Yi Xianrong, a prominent economist, said the numbers are “shocking” and the country’s property market is dangerously overheated. “Many of them are bought by property speculators betting on a constantly rising property market,” he wrote in a commentary to the official newspaper, the People’s Daily. “This is a serious threat to the sustainability of China’s economy.” _FinanceAsia

China's political future rests upon its ability to offer a growing prosperity to its people. If China's economic numbers turn out to be mostly "smoke and mirrors," the people will grow restless. Already a growing number of Chinese within and without the government are calling for meaningful political freedoms to expand.

if the Hu-Wen leadership does not act soon, China is unlikely to see major political reforms for at least the next five years, despite everyone at senior levels agreeing on the desirability of such changes.

What is needed is action now, before pent-up frustrations result in an explosion that cannot be contained. _ChinaPost

China can easily explode in fury if its people were to suddenly wake up to the vast levels of corruption, mismanagement, and destruction of future potential which are manifested at every level of government in China. While everything looks fine on the outside, inside the bamboo prison, it is a cauldron of uncertainty and violent jostling for position.

US President Obama's plan for the US economy appears to be to borrow and spend $trillion dollar deficits into the indefinite future -- assuming the overseas borrowers of US debt will always be standing in line to purchase US securities at any old interest rate. The truth is more ominous than you will likely learn in the media or from most economic analysis in the mainstream. Unless the rest of the world begins to buy China's products as it did up till 2008, China cannot serve as the lender and commodities-buyer of last resort for long.

Artificial inflation of China's GDP numbers via a vast, corrupt construction bubble, can only work for so long. When the dominoes begin to fall, they will create more collateral damage than most people currently understand.

Things Are Going to Get a Lot Worse

Public-sector unions aren't protecting government workers against abuse; they're inflicting abuse on the rest of us -- because private workers pay for all the government jobs by losing their own jobs and with higher taxes. _NYP

Public sector unions are sucking the blood out of the private sector.

Thirty years ago the vast majority of union workers were in the private sector. Public employees in unions reached parity with private sector members by 2009. This was aided in part by campaign contributions from the unions to elect Democratic Party candidates and generous pay packages and retirement plans passed by those same politicians in return.

By 2010, the general public received a series of shocks. The first shock was the jobless recovery of the Great Recession that cost 8 million jobs. Most of the job losses occurred in the private sector yet the majority of the $800 billion Stimulus Bill went to “save and create” public sector employment. The second shock was learning that civil servants earned twice that of private workers. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal workers received average pay and benefits of $123,049 while private workers made $61,051 in total compensation. The third shock was revelation of incredible retirement plans doled out by politicians since 1999. In 2002, California passed SB 183 that allowed police and safety workers to retire after 30 years on the job with 3% of salary for each year of service, or 90% of their last year’s pay. During the Great Recession, fireman began retiring with $150,000 pensions at age 52 despite a life expectancy approaching 80. In Orange County CA, lifeguards, deemed safety workers, retired with $147,000 annual pensions. The Orange County sheriff, recently convicted of witness tampering, will receive $215,000 annually while in jail. Bob Citron, the Treasurer of Orange County who pushed the county into bankruptcy in the 1990s, receives a pension of $150,000 per year. A tsunami of anger and resentment is building. _NG

$3 trillion pension disaster on the way Will Obama Pelosi bail out their union buddies yet again -- at the private sector's expense?

Pension Tsunami blog

Overpaid government worker blog

Is it time to end tenure for university indoctrinators?

At a time when nearly one in 10 American workers is unemployed, here’s a crew ...who are guaranteed jobs for life, teach only a few hours a week, routinely get entire years off, dump grading duties onto graduate students and produce “research” on subjects like “Rednecks, Queers and Country Music” or “The Whatness of Books.” Or maybe they stop doing research altogether....dropping their workweek to a manageable dozen hours or so, all while making $100,000 or more a year... _NYT

And those are the more responsible of the tenured professors. ;-)

Things are going to get a lot worse, because there are a lot more shoes left to drop.

As US interest rates inevitably rise, every additional $trillion that Obama adds to the national debt will be felt by all but the richest Americans. Eventually even Obama zombies will mutter Obama's name as a curse, like everyone else.

Craig Venter Aims to Replace the Entire Petrochemical Industry

“Designing and building synthetic cells will be the basis of a new industrial revolution,” Dr. Venter says. “The goal is to replace the entire petrochemical industry.” _NYT

NYT

Peak Oil will occur when humans no longer want to bother drilling into the ground to extract dark, gooey, messy liquids to turn into fuels. Instead, humans are slowly but surely developing other, more reliable and sustainable ways to fuel their industrial base and somewhat affluent lifestyles. Dieoff.orgiasts and other members of the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement hate to see any alternatives to Peak Oil Doom, or any skepticism to the orthodoxy of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. But humans are innately a problem-solving and skeptical lot.

Craig Venter is one example of an unlikely problem solver. He was a poor student in his youth, and only after living through some harrowing experiences in Vietnam as a military medic was young Venter able to get his head on straight, and decide to do something with his life.

...Dr. Venter has a history of defying skeptics, and many people are betting that he will succeed this time as well. Dr. Walton, in fact, invested personally in Synthetic Genomics, and his venture firm, Oxford Bioscience Partners, recently wanted to sink a hefty sum into the company but was turned down when Dr. Venter found other investors offering better terms.

Exxon Mobil is giving Synthetic Genomics $300 million in research financing to design algae that could be used to produce gasoline and diesel fuel. (The new greenhouse will be used for that research.)

BP has invested in the company itself, turning to Synthetic Genomics to study microbes that might help turn coal deposits into cleaner-burning natural gas. Another investor, the Malaysian conglomerate Genting, wants to improve oil output from its palm tree plantations, working toward what its chief executive calls a “gasoline tree.”

...In the approach toward which Dr. Venter is driving, engineers would specify the entire genetic code of a cell — essentially the software that runs the cell — on computers, making design changes as if on a word processor. They would then press the “print” button, so to speak, and the DNA would be manufactured from its chemical components. The synthetic DNA would then be transplanted into an existing cell, where it would “boot up” and take control of the cell’s operations.

...Synthetic Genomics has about 130 employees. But much of its research, including the development of the synthetic cell, is done at the J. Craig Venter Institute. Synthetic Genomics pays for about 25 of the institute’s roughly 300 researchers, and has rights to their results. The rest of the institute’s funding comes mainly from federal grants and its endowment.... _NYT

Venter seems to love challenges and competitions. He lives to defy skeptics and to defeat rivals. And do you know the odd thing? The world is full of young Venters who have not yet -- and may never -- figured out what they want to do with their lives.

Pelted mercilessly with nightmarish predictions of doom and gloom, and instilled by governmenbt schools and indoctrinating universities with the futility of trying to fight their fate, hundreds of thousands of young Venters never amount to much -- when they might have done, given the right experiences in early life.

From an article published at Al Fin Energy

Khan Academy: Evolving to Define the Future of Education

Khan Academy is a rapidly growing set of online learning videos. Microsoft's Bill Gates has enrolled himself and his son, Rory, in Khan's free online school, heaping praise on Salman Khan's online labour of love.

The above video describes some of Khan's future goals for his ambitious project, and how it may well change the future of education.

Unlike overpriced university programs, Khan omits the indoctrination and focuses strictly on the education. Even better, he makes subjects easier to learn -- even the very difficult subjects such as differential equations. Khan is expanding the number of videos and video courses on a regular basis. And as you can see from the video above, he never stops planning for the future.

Check out Khan Academy and the Khan Academy YouTube Channel to learn something you didn't know before.

Hat tip to News Alert

Bonus!: The following video is a delightful 1 hour 23 minute inside look into the origins and future of Khan Academy, presented by MIT alumnus Salman Khan to the MIT Club of Northern California.

A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Waste, As Is a Country

CarpeDiem_via_TaxProf

University tuition costs have been rising at least twice as fast as inflation and home prices. A large part of this higher education bubble-bloat is due to an explosive hiring of non-faculty staff members. People such as "sexual orientation counselors" and "diversity co-ordinators" are laughing about the bubble all the way to the bank.

The buyers think what they're buying will appreciate in value, making them rich in the future. The product grows more and more elaborate, and more and more expensive, but the expense is offset by cheap credit provided by sellers eager to encourage buyers to buy.

Buyers see that everyone else is taking on mounds of debt, and so are more comfortable when they do so themselves; besides, for a generation, the value of what they're buying has gone up steadily. What could go wrong? Everything continues smoothly until, at some point, it doesn't.

Yes, this sounds like the housing bubble, but I'm afraid it's also sounding a lot like a still-inflating higher education bubble. And despite (or because of) the fact that my day job involves higher education, I think it's better for us to face up to what's going on before the bubble bursts messily." _mjperry_quoting_GlennReynolds

If the housing bubble brought down the economies of the western world, what will happen when the "higher indoctrination bubble" bursts? Overpriced university re-programming has been shifting away from providing a useful education in favour of providing a "consciousness-raising" brainwashing experience -- while simultaneously putting students and families in debt for decades.

This is a far more destructive process than buying an overpriced home and being foreclosed upon. In the case of institutions of higher indoctrination, it is your mind and the minds of your children that have been fore-closed by dogmatic professors and staff.

Get your download of the report on administrative bloat in higher education: the real reason for high costs in higher education. __ PDF Download __This is the report that is creating such a stir in the media and on university campuses.

Bonus: An interactive US map allowing you to examine the condition of K-12 education state-by-state. via_Jay P Greene

PLUS on the state of US K-12 Ed: 7 MB PDF report card on K-12 American Education via_Jay P Greene

Here is more coverage from US media on administrative bloat and rising tuition costs in US higher indoctrination:

Op-eds
Atlanta Journal Constitution
Baltimore Sun
Indianapolis Star
AOLNews
News
Dallas Morning News
Indianapolis Star
USA Today
Chronicle of Higher Education
Arizona Republic
Arizona Daily Star
Sunshine News
Phoenix Business Journal
AZ Daily Sun
Arizona Capitol Times
Inside Higher Ed
Modesto Bee
Time
Kiplinger’s
Fort Wayne Journal Gazette
Baylor Lariat
Columnists / Editorials
The Economist
Forbes
Arizona Republic
Dallas Morning News
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Denver Post
Dallas Morning News
Selected Blogs
Instavision
National Association of Scholars
Instapundit
Cato@Liberty
Phi Beta Cons
Reason Foundation — Nick Gillespie
Reason Foundation — Lisa Snell
George W. Bush Institute
Pelican Institute
MacIver Institute
Nevada Policy Research Institute
The Five Year Party
Carolina Journal
American Council of Trustees and Alumni
The Volokh Conspiracy
Minding the Campus
And here is our rebuttal to ASU’s statement attacking the report.  The rebuttal works for most of the issues raised by other universities as well:
Our Rebuttal_JayPGreene