01 April 2012

(Near) Real Time US Continental Wind Map

The effect of watching the wind swirling over the entire continental US in near-real time can be hypnotic. I can't wait until a global version is available.
Surface wind data comes from the National Digital Forecast Database. These are near-term forecasts, revised once per hour. So what you're seeing is a living portrait. (See the NDFD site for precise details; our timestamp shows time of download.) And for those of you chasing top wind speed, note that maximum speed may occur over lakes or just offshore. _Wind Map
Wind Map

The above image is a static screen capture from the website. The actual on-site image is dynamic, and zoomable for up-close looks at particular regions.

This is reminiscent of the "mirror world" concept of digitally augmented reality portrayals which can be mapped on top of the real world in real time. The amount of information expected to become available to ordinary people using such means is expected to be astoundingly large.

More: Second Earth: World Wide Sim (PDF)

If we learn to use this new wealth of knowledge to our benefit, we can be immensely richer for it.

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04 March 2012

How a 1,000 Euro Pair of Implants Upset the Balance of Nature in Bagnolo

Laura Maggi has been running Le Cafe in Bagnolo, Italy, for eight years. But it wasn't until she invested in breast implants and a more revealing wardrobe, that her business began to truly take off.
Le Cafe's Laura Maggi courtesy Daily Mail

After eight years running a bar, Laura Maggi suddenly found men beating a path to her door. Not for the quality of her coffee and aperitifs, but because she had started appearing for work in highly revealing outfits.

Hundreds of male customers flocked there day and night, leaving their cars double parked in the surrounding streets.

Congestion became such a problem that the lady mayor announced she was considering an emergency bylaw to limit traffic in the area. _DailyMail
In fact, the Mayor forbade her husband from visiting Le Cafe, and several other wives of the village have followed suit. But what are the women actually complaining about?

For a cost of between 1,000 Euros and 2,500 Euros, any woman can obtain a reasonable approximation of Laura's breasts. Revealing clothing is easily come by. Learning to think of one's self as sexy, and acting the part, may be the most difficult accomplishment for most modern, feminist-indoctrinated women, however. In many ways, large numbers of women may have forgotten how to act like women. If so, that could be an expensive lapse of memory for some, and a huge windfall of profits for Laura Maggi!

What if other female bar owners in Italy decide to imitate Laura's business plan? What will this do to the already drooping birthrates in Italia? If the men are all at Laura's bar, they can't be home making tomorrow's generation of Italians.

If Italy's women are to save the country's future, they may have to re-learn some very old lessons about human nature.

Originally posted to Al Fin Potpourri and to Al Fin, You Sexy Thing!

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01 November 2011

We Are All Cyborgs Now: Getting to Genuine Convergence

Brain Riken Research

Convergent technology refers to the combination of multiple functions into a single device. Consider a computer pad which might be used for web browsing, as a video camera, as a game player, a communications device, a media player, a book reader, a data archiver, a photo album, and so on. With enough storage, a person could download much of his life onto an inexpensive handheld device, for easy reference. Useful for those with memory problems, and for everyone else as well.

But I am referring to a higher order of convergence and interactivity, which approaches the level of cyborg augmented reality. Let's use some recent research from Stanford as a springboard into the concept:
Ian Gotlib's group at Stanford University, California, studies girls aged 10 to 14 years whose mothers suffer from depression. Such girls are thought to be at higher-than-normal risk of developing the condition themselves, in part because they may inherit their mothers' tendency to "amplify" unpleasant information. Although none of the girls has yet experienced a depressive episode, Gotlib has found that their brains already overreact to negative emotional stimuli – a pattern they share with their mothers and other depressed people.


Gotlib is studying whether these young subjects can use interactive software and brain-imaging hardware to "rewire" their brains by unlearning this negative bias. In a pilot experiment, eight girls used a neural feedback display to learn how to control activity in a network of interrelated brain regions that have been linked to depression – these include the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.


The level of activity in this network was measured using an functional MRI scan and displayed to the girls in the form of a thermometer on a computer screen. The girls were shown sad or negative pictures that might ordinarily raise their "temperature", and tried to lower that "temperature" by adopting more sanguine mental states. They were then advised to try to recreate that mindset in their daily lives.


A control group unknowingly watched someone else's scan output instead of their own, so they didn't actually learn how to control their brain activity. _NewScientist
An interesting setup, using fMRI neurofeedback. But the researchers went further, and tested another group of girls with a much simpler setup to see how the two approaches would compare.

Another set of girls in the pilot experiment received their training through a simple computer game instead. In this game, a pair of faces appeared on a screen every few seconds: they would be either neutral and sad, or neutral and happy. Then a dot replaced one of the faces, and the "game" was to click on the dot. For the eight girls in the control group, the face replaced by the dot was selected at random, but for eight girls in the experimental group, the dot always replaced the more positive face in the pair. Over a week of playing this game daily, these girls were in effect being trained to avoid looking at the sad faces.


Gotlib himself originally found this concept, called attentional-bias training, so simplistic that he bet Colin MacLeod, a psychologist at the University of Western Australia in Perth who pioneered the technique, that it would not alter psychological symptoms. Gotlib lost his bet.


In his pilot study, both kinds of training significantly reduced stress-related responses – for example, increases in heart rate, blood pressure and cortisol levels – to negative stimuli. These stress responses are a key marker of depression, and they diminished one week after training. The girls in the experimental groups also developed fewer defensive responses to negative faces, such as startled blinking. Control groups showed no such improvement.


...Gotlib is adding more subjects to the training programme and plans to compare their long-term mental health with a parallel cohort of 200 girls, half of whom have depressed mothers, who aren't participating in the study.


He presented his results at the annual meeting of the Society for Research in Psychopathology in Boston in September. _NS
A simple computer game is much less expensive than a huge fMRI machine. And it would be easier to incorporate into one's pad computer as well. Of course, EEG neurofeedback would serve as well for this purpose as fMRI, and EEG could be incorporated into a pad computer. Can you see the convergence beginning to form?

This type of research could easily lead to much broader applications which could detect when we started to fall into a dysfunctional mental feedback loop, and provide timely stimuli which lead us back toward our predetermined goals. Why might we need such devices? Why not just use willpower and heightened consciousness instead?

The many functions where a human brain is superior to a computer depend upon the way that the brain is wired, and how the different parts of the brain communicate. This is virtually all below the level of consciousness, making us largely subconscious machines -- or zombies -- in many of our most important aspects. But ironically enough, by becoming more cyborg-like, we may be able to become less zombie-like.

Brain-computer interfaces (BCI) are typically thought of in terms of helping persons to either compensate for neurological deficits such as stroke or paraplegia, or to rehabilitate from neurological damage. BCIs are also beginning to be utilised in the gaming world, to provide more intuitive game playing. We can also expect much more use of BCIs in the educational environment, for enhanced learning.

It is difficult to explain the explosively revolutionary impact of this type of technology, when used as neurofeedback for learning, mood enhancement, creative invention, mental focus, relaxation, and social interaction. You may think that intervention with such hyper-convergent technology would begin sometime after the birth of a child, but you would probably be wrong.

Once humans discover the revolutionary impact of hyper-convergent computing and BCIs on child raising outcomes, for large segments of the population there will be no going back. Why? Because it is almost inevitable that new, previously unknown critical developmental windows will be discovered, for high level skills that are currently developed only by accident. These windows will be discovered because the new BCIs will not simply be passive monitoring and feedback devices, but will also be "mental probes" using various modalities. You never know what is there until you go in and look.

This is very dangerous territory, where angels fear to tread. But then, as we approach cyborg-hood, we may find ourselves further away from angelhood. Heightened awareness, knowledge, and competence tend to lead us to test ourselves to greater extremes. Some of the things we try may go catastrophically wrong. We have to accept that in advance and take appropriate precautions as we proceed.

One of the greatest dangers is the danger of losing something essential, something perceptive and wise which keeps us from making fatal mistakes, and from falling into traps and wasting time on dead end enterprises. We could easily grow so dependent upon our machine alter egos that we lose much of our natural strength and competence.

That is why the great majority of humans will remain as a control group. At least at first. It will be difficult to keep persons from adopting a technology which may give them an advantage in life outcome, and which is likely to become both widely available and inexpensive, over time.

In addition, periodic mandatory periods of going "offline" would force us to reclaim our "naked human abilities." Failing to take such precautions could leave us extremely vulnerable to an unexpected failure of our technology.

A recent posting here looked at a program for developing a platform for "rebooting civilisation" in case of catastrophic failure. A simple BCI system would make it much easier to build and maintain these essential machines of basic civilisation. BCIs and wearable computers / data archives, could be stored in secure caches, safe from natural and man-made disaster. A primitive version of that idea was presented in the Niven - Pournelle SF novel, "Lucifer's Hammer," where the astrophysicist character stored a precious collection of reference books in a safe and secure cache -- the books were later used to help reboot civilisation. You can imagine how much more effective full sensory neurofeedback BCI archiving would be.

It may seem a long distance from the Stanford research above to the lifelong cyborg existence described. But it is mostly a matter of engineering and experimentation. When Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Bill Gates, Ted Hoff, Robert Noyce, and so many others laid the foundation for cheap, ubiquitous computing, the djinn was already out of the bottle.



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22 September 2009

Mental Models and Metaphors: Creative Thinking

The human mind is built upon models and metaphor. This is true from the pre-natal moment that enough nerve cells come together to co-oscillate, and it is true for the most advanced explorations into the cutting edge of science and technology. Cognitive scientist Nancy J. Nersessian has discovered the importance of model building in science:
Designing, building, and experimenting with physical simulation models are central problem-solving practices in the engineering sciences. Model-based simulation is an epistemic activity that includes exploration, generation and testing of hypotheses, explanation, and inference. This paper argues that to interpret and understand how these simulation models function in creating knowledge and technologies requires construing problem solving as accomplished by a researcher–artifact system. It draws on and further develops the framework of "distributed cognition"... _TopicsCognitiveScience
More from Nersessian:
To develop an understanding of the system under investigation, scientists build real-world models and make predictions with them. The models are tentative at first, but over time they are revised and refined, and can lead the community to novel problem solutions. Models, thus, play a big role in the creative thinking processes of scientists. _SD
This is a very basic understanding of the work of invention and creativity at the borders of science and technology. But what Nersessian is doing is to make the process more explicit, in order to bring creativity to a wider range of activities -- including the classroom.

Model-building and metaphor is basic to the thinking process. But as the domain of thinking and creativity grows more complex -- as at the cutting edge of science and engineering -- the models and metaphors used will grow more intricate.

Einstein made wonderful use of mental models in his pursuit of new science, as did Feynman and other great scientists. As better methods of building physical and computing models are developed, the creative process is augmented by a form of "distributed cognition", as Nersessian terms it. Once the model exits the mind of the scientist and exists in the outer world, other minds can grasp it and tweak it -- making the tool of cognition distributed.

Models are only tools to help discover reality, however. They are not the reality. That is the error that climate scientists too often make: they forsake scientific observation and data confirmation and pursue computer models as if the models were the reality.

Models sit at the crux between data and theory. Without data, theory is mere confabulation. But without theory, data is simply noise. The human mind is always attempting to create order out of chaos, model out of data. This process is unconscious, and begins to occur long before the mind acquires language. It leads to optical illusions, common delusions, and mass confusion when conclusions are jumped to without adequately testing the models ("carbon climate catastrophe").

But since it is how we think, we need to know how to make the most of it -- while also keeping things "real."More: The above image is a computer mapping of shipping traffic near Rotterdam. The human mind is capable of creating similar maps mentally, but as a phenomenon grows more complex, computer mappings and visualisations become more helpful

A map (or complex visualisation) is similar to a model, in that the map takes a large mass of data, and connects the data in such a way that the mind can grasp it more easily -- in all its complexity.

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14 May 2009

A Brave New World of Custom Brain Augments

How do you want your brain customised? With a brain-machine interface? With genetic treatments? With smart drugs? With implanted nano-circuits? Or with stem cell colony implants ready to repair any damage or deficit?

All of those modifications are on the doorstep, ringing the front bell. The world's neuroscientists and philosophers are finally taking this reality seriously. A group of interested persons met in Berlin recently to discuss the implications of the brave new brain technologies.
The next stage of brainpower enhancement could be technological - through genetic engineering or brain prostheses. Because the gene variants pivotal to intellectual brilliance have yet to be discovered, boosting brainpower by altering genes may still be some way off, or even impossible. Prostheses are much closer, especially as the technology for wiring brains into computers is already being tested (see "Dawn of the cyborgs"). Indeed, futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil believes the time when humans merge with machines will arrive as early as 2045 (New Scientist, 9 May, p 26).

It won't be long before "clip-on" computer aids become available for everybody, says Andy Clark, a pro-enhancement philosopher at the University of Edinburgh in the UK. These could be anything from memory aids to the ability to "search" for information stored in your brain. "We'll get a flowering of brain augmentations, some seeping through from the disabled community," he says. "I see them becoming fashion items, a bit like choosing clothing." Clark says that even today, devices such as head-up displays on spectacles or simply being adept at using computer programs like Photoshop come close to being physical extensions of people's minds.

...There are, however, simple alternatives to technological enhancement that would achieve many of the same goals, says Dupré: education and child-rearing. Moreover, he thinks such changes can be heritable via epigenetics - the reprogramming of gene expression in offspring by exposure to cultural, maternal and environmental influences. Dupré points to a study in rats showing that good maternal care was passed on largely because it permanently altered gene activity in the brains of the pups. _NewScientist
There is a wide range of potential brain mod even without using invasive implants, stimulators, and genetic alterations. Humans have always had access to meditation techniques (including laughter) which may well build useful brain circuits. More recent developments such as neurofeedback expand the options for creative brain modification immensely. Combining brain machine interfaces with nano-implants, crafted meditative techniques, and neurofeedback offers some quite sophisticated possibilities for supercharging specific brain circuits.

Genetic modification (combined with creative stem cell therapies) is the long term goal, once the techniques are improved. The mainstream intent will be to provide a level playing field for all the world's people -- including those populations that seem stuck at average IQs around 70 to 80 points. These people have no hope of developing or maintaining a technological civilisation, and depend upon outsiders and market dominant minorities for their advanced goods and services.

Eventually, advanced germ cell line genetic brain augmentation techniques will be applied to persons who are already above average intelligence. Soon afterward, clear separations in group proficiencies will develop and begin to widen.

It is not likely that such separation will begin along racial lines, but rather along other affiliative lines such as professions or special interest groups. Societies whose more functional and accomplished members work well together regardless of race, ethnicity, or religion etc will probably be the most creative in terms of applying the new technologies.

If such quasi-elites -- by competencies -- have experienced enough societal shocks they are likely to jump beyond today's ethically queasy resistance to brain augmentation in the interest of survival. The threat of a new dark age brought on by incompetent world governments would be enough to focus even the most bleeding heart.

The horses are already out, and they are just now talking about closing the barn door. Someone take them some coffee.

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