Peak Oil Doom In Context

Previously published on Al Fin Energy

...Peak Oil catastrophism is largely a manifestation of our primary cultural myth: that all things end with suffering, death, and then resurrection. Belief in apocalypse is programmed into western civilization. Given our heritage, “the end is nigh” is the nearly unavoidable personal and collective response to times of uncertainty and rapid change. _Pattern Literacy

Peak oil predictions go back at least to the 1850's. Predictions of "the end of oil" have been with us as long as oil itself.

Peak oil has a longer history than you think. Although the models that define the American peak oil hypothesis were first advanced in the 1950s, predictions of the imminent depletion of American oil reserves can be found much earlier. In fact, one of the earliest known warnings that the United States would run out of oil was released on Jan. 19, 1922, when the U.S. Geological Survey warned the public that only two decades of oil remained in the ground, if present consumption patterns held steady. _Motley Fool

King Hubbert is the originator of modern peak oil models, but most of Hubbert's real world predictions are proving wrong.

Most people acknowledge that the Earth's supply of petroleum is finite, and will one day become too expensive to extract. The problem, to many people, seems to be in timing the peak.

Modern history of peak oil predictions (Wikipedia)

But the issue of peak oil is secondary to the issue of peak affordable energy. Modern societies are slowly shifting much of their energy load to electrical power sources, which can be generated by multiple forms of energy besides oil.

Newer, safer, more scalable, reliable, and affordable forms of nuclear power would be the obvious goal of rational societies, in the pursuit of an electrical energy future. But ample supplies of natural gas, coal, gas hydrates, bitumens, kerogens, and eventually advanced biomass, could supply careful societies with power and heat for centuries to come.

The question seems to revolve around the issue of "liquid fuels," for powering airplanes, ships, trains, and other transportation vehicles. And yet we know that with the assistance of high temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors (HTGRs) -- already well along in the design and development stage -- the world's massive supplies of gas, coal, hydrates, bitumens, kerogens, and biomass can be converted affordably into high quality liquid fuels, chemicals, polymers, lubricants, fertilisers, and other useful substances.

The problem, though, is neither "peak oil," nore "peak energy." The problem is "peak ingenuity," or the shortage of good ideas and the will the implement them.

For readers who have freed themselves from "the apocalyptic compulsion," and who are honestly looking for a path out of the apparent abyss, take a careful and open look at The Ultimate Resource.

As long as human minds remain free, solutions to problems can be devised. Whether governments and other powerful interests will allow problems to be solved, or not, is another question. Many of those governments and powerful institutions are led by people who are in thrall to the apocalyptic instinct.

But we will do what we can to find pathways to a more abundant future. Nobody said it would be easy.

Massive Unconventional Hydrocarbon Resource Rising in Importance

Methane hydrate, as the substance is known, has long been regarded by oil and gas companies as a nuisance because it can block marine drilling rigs.

Now a study by Statoil, Norway's state oil firm and a leading global gas producer, suggests it should be reclassified as a major fuel resource, with enough buried in the oceans to power the world for decades or even centuries.

"The energy content of methane occurring in hydrate form is immense, possibly exceeding the combined energy content of all other known fossil fuels," said Espen Andersen, Statoil's exploration manager in unconventional hydrocarbons, who will present his study at an energy conference next week. _Australian_via_SundayTimes

Der Spiegel

Methane, trapped in an icy cage of water molecules, occurs in permafrost and, in even greater quantities, beneath the ocean floor. It forms only under specific pressure and temperature conditions. These conditions are especially prevalent in the ocean along the continental shelves, as well as in the deeper waters of semi-enclosed seas (see graphic).

World reserves of the frozen gas are enormous. Geologists estimate that significantly more hydrocarbons are bound in the form of methane hydrate than in all known reserves of coal, natural gas and oil combined. "There is simply so much of it that it cannot be ignored," says leading expert Gerhard Bohrman of the Research Center for Ocean Margins... _DerSpiegel

Researchers around the world are scrambling to find economical ways of recovering this vast hydrocarbon resource.

One intriguing idea for the simultaneous recovery of energy and sequestration of global warming gas is proposed by the transformation of methane hydrates to carbon dioxide hydrates with the injection of liquid CO2. Here we use molecular dynamics simulations to show that the replacement can take place without melting of the network of hydrogen-bonded water molecules. Depending on the distance to the interface between the liquid CO2 and solid clathrate hydrate, we find that the replacement occurs either via direct swapping of methane and CO2 or via a transient co-occupation of both methane and CO2 in one cavity. Our results suggest that, with a careful design of the operation condition, it is possible to replace methane from methane hydrates with CO2 in the solid phase without much change in the geological stability. _ACS Abstract

ACS
A team of American and Japanese researchers are in Alaska this month to test a new method of extracting methane hydrates from rich Arctic resources. They intend to inject CO2 into the hydrates in hopes that the waste gas will replace the more valuable methane in the ice cage, freeing up the methane for extraction and use.

This month, scientists will test a new way to extract methane from beneath the frozen soil of Alaska: they will use waste carbon dioxide from conventional wells to force out the desired natural gas.

...The test will use the Ignik Sikumi well, which was drilled on an ice platform in Prudhoe Bay last winter. Specialized equipment has been installed, including fibre-optic cables to measure the temperature down the well, and injection pipes for the CO2. “None of this is standard equipment; it had to be built to design,” says Boswell.

...During the test, the researchers will inject nitrogen gas into the hydrate deposit to try to push away any free water in the system, which would otherwise freeze into hydrates on exposure to CO2 and block up the well. The next phase is to pump in isotopically labelled CO2, and let it ‘soak’ for a week before seeing what comes back up. This will help to test whether the injected carbon is really swapping places with the carbon in the hydrates. Finally, the team will depressurize the well and attempt to suck up all the methane and carbon dioxide. This will also give them a chance to test extraction using depressurization — sucking liquids out of the hydrate deposits to reduce pressure in the well and coax the methane out of the water crystals. “We’ll continue to depressurize until we run out of time or money, and see how much methane we can get out that way,” says Boswell. _Nature

As humans devise more and better ways to utilise methane in place of crude oil, it makes sense to learn how to extract the richest reserves of methane in the crust.

We do not yet know how much of the methane resource originates abiotically in the mantle -- and thus can be theoretically seen as "renewable methane." It is likely to be substantial. And thanks to the giant tectonic plate mechanism, with ongoing subduction of organics-rich oceanic crusts under continental crusts, biogenic methane is, to a large extent, renewable as well -- on an extended time scale, and on a continuous basis. Where do you think most of these methane hydrates came from in the first place? No matter. There are a lot more where those came from.

Adapted from an article published on Al Fin Energy

Scratching the Surface of Global Hydrocarbons

From Rogner(PDF 1997) via GWPF
It is odd that the vast size of global hydrocarbon resource is largely overlooked in the many discussions of "peak oil" and "resource depletion." It almost seems as if persons of influence would prefer to forget all about the huge resources which are out there waiting for humans to find, retrieve, and develop.

The image above was taken from a 1997 assessment of global hydrocarbon resources by Rogner (PDF). As you can see on the left, the amount of hydrocarbon already consumed by humans is negligible in comparison to all the hydrocarbon reserves and resources still remaining.

Recent large discoveries of oil off Brazil and Norway, plus the discovery of huge unconventional gas resources worldwide, added to the already incomprehensibly large resources of coal, unconventional oil, and methane hydrates -- and one's mind is in danger of boggling from all the hydrocarbon that has been sitting around waiting for someone to notice it.

But wait! That's not all. The planet itself is busy making more hydrocarbon, while you are sleeping -- deep in the hot pressured mantle. Some of this hydrocarbon is constantly migrating upward into the crust, providing vast future resources for intelligent beings to discover down the road.

And we have not even mentioned the immeasurable resources of uranium and thorium, waiting at our beck and call -- as soon as our bureaucratic obstructionists in government get out of the way of safe, new, more economical reactor construction.

What about enhanced geothermal? Orbital solar? Low energy nuclear reactions? etc etc. It is almost enough to make one forget about peak oil doom.

2009 Pacific Rim Summit on Industrial Biotechnology and Bioenergy

Honolulu will host the upcoming 2009 Summit on Industrial Biotechnology and Bioenergy from Nov 8-11. One of the most important topics of discussion will be algal biofuels, with detailed reports on algal R&D progress from producers.

Brent Erickson, executive vice president of BIO’s Industrial and Environmental Section, said, “Algae is seen as a promising source of raw material for biofuels, but it also could become a workhorse for producing ethanol, chemical, protein and food ingredients. As companies work to achieve the full potential of algae for fuels and chemicals, they’ll face the same challenges and opportunities as other biotechnology companies. The Pacific Rim Summit provides an opportunity for startup companies to present the state of their research and development, share their experiences and network with one another and with other biotechnology companies.” _EarthTimes

With a world oil market trade amounting to trillions of dollars yearly, algal biofuels companies have a long way to go to compete with the well established liquid fuels industry. The challenge is immense, but worth rising to.

The promise of ultimately replacing a large proportion of petroleum fuels with algal biofuels is seen as a threat by certain economic interests. Any corporation that is heavily invested in biodiesel from soy, maize, rape, palm, or other conventional oil crop must feel significant threat from the long term promise of microbial energy -- including algal fuels. Promoters of electric vehicles are likewise worried that an abundant liquid fuel seen as "clean and green" would slow the momentum toward an "all electric" highway fleet.

Last of all, promoters of environmental doom -- the dieoff.orgiast believers in catastrophic climate doom and peak oil doom -- must feel enormous threat from any source of energy that might allow modern societies to continue a life of prosperous consumption.

Still, the economic argument of a potential multi-trillion dollar market is inescapable. Enemies of algal fuels will use every trick in the book to stop the perceived threat. After they lose the fight, they will be forgotten.

You Really Must Like High Energy Prices!

Brian Westenhaus presents an excellent example of how US government regulations are choking domestic energy supplies and driving up costs of industry, commerce, and daily life for every American.

Everyone world wide would be affected. Today the U.S. is a very small importer of natural gas. The proposed bill would certainly change that forcing the U.S. into the world natural gas market in a big way. _NewEnergyandFuel

How far will the Obama government go to create "political peak oil" and other fabricated disasters? And how long will it take for the American news and entertainment media to let the people know what is happening, to wake them up?

Government is creating political peak oil for reasons of its own. Someone benefits from the expanding web of regulations, taxes, fines, restrictions, and opening up to lawsuits that Americans are now experiencing. It is great job security for government bureaucrats, trial lawyers, and faux environmental activists, at the very least. But it is hell on the productive class of a country. Long term, this type of government destroys the productive potential of generations of citizens, until they wake up and get rid of it.The government is not the country. The government is a parasite on the country and on the people. The installation of particular persons in high governmental office leads to a pathological bloating of the parasite with the blood of taxpayers and commercial enterprise.

As long as government is kept strictly limited to the essential roles of protecting citizens from violence, theft, and fraud, the parasite can be managed. But the US government broke the chains put on it by the people and the Constitution in the early 20th century -- and has been growing oppressively larger in fits and starts ever since.

Under the current president, the US government has chosen to expand beyond all precedent, over a very short time span. This growth is very profitable to a select group of insiders -- labour unions, trial lawyers, campaign contributors, "connected" individuals -- but it is death to the people's hopes and dreams.

How will the people respond to the uncontrolled growth of the parasite?

Between 200 and 20,000 Years' Worth of Uranium

The Earth holds over 200 years of uranium for nuclear power plants at current rates of consumption. But we know that more nuclear plants are being built, so humans will need to develop more ingenious ways of tapping the planet's uranium supply. The real supply of nuclear fuel is closer to 100,000 years.

If the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) has accurately estimated the planet's economically accessible uranium resources, reactors could run more than 200 years at current rates of consumption.

...Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium—a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies. _SciAm

And then there are several ways of re-cycling nuclear fuel to double and triple fuel supplies. And then there is Thorium, which provides more nuclear energy yet.

Nuclear fusion will be available long before we run out of fissionable fuels for advanced generation nuclear reactors. The only shortage we have is a shortage of intelligent imagination coupled with a smart and competent workforce. We can thank government schools for dumbing down the workforce and voting population.

You may think there is a shortage of capital investment, but that is only in relative terms. As the proper technologies come along, they will be funded. Even with the NIC (narcissist in chief) "in control".

What Warren Buffett Is Having

Warrent Buffett has purchased Constellation Energy for $4.7 billion in cash.

Billionaire Warren Buffett on Thursday said MidAmerican Energy Co. would buy Constellation Energy Group for $4.7 billion in cash -- a discount of nearly 60% from levels at which the ailing power firm's shares were trading just days ago. _MarketWatch_via_TomNelson

Here is a list of Constellation's energy holdings:

Out of its total 9,614 MW of electric generating capacity in 2005 (0.90% of the U.S. total), Constellation produces 44.2% from nuclear, 28.3% from coal, 13.0% from oil, 8.7% from natural gas, 4.7% from hydroelectricity, 1.2% from biomass, 0.2% from geothermal, and 0.1% from solar. Constellation owns power plants in California, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, and Utah; 59.1% of its generating capacity is in Maryland, and 25.2% is in New York.[3] _Source_via_TomNelson

Looking over the list of energy assetts, fickle wind power is conspicuous by its absence. Wind power is often listed as a great hope of the future--by idiots and airheads like Nancy Pelosi. The Democrats in the US Congress have brought the US to a most perilous and vulnerable energy state.

The recent offshore oil drilling bill is total illusion, meant to impress saps and fools unable to look beneath surface layer news. Yet it is the most that the Democrats have managed to do since they took an iron-fisted control of the Congress almost two years ago. If Obama messiah is elected with a strong Democratic majority in congress, expect US energy to hang by tenuous threads. People such as Buffett may be all that will be left standing between political energy starvation and the people of the US.

The US Democratic Party has fallen into the hands of religious fundamentalists of the faux environmentalist variety--Holy Warmers! Holy warmers believe in human sacrifice to their gods of faux environmentalism, such as climate change and peak oil. By gearing policies around a belief in catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, they actually create political peak oil. Holy Warmers specialise in self-fulfilling prophecies, and in falsifying data of the pseudo-scientific variety. Barak Obama is an ideal messiah for Holy Warmers, adored by cultist the world around.

Fortunately, there are places where curious truth seekers can go to understand what is happening behind the media and religious smoke screens blown by politicians and celebrity members of the Holy Warmer Orthodoxy.

In a Rare Show of Intestinal Fortitude, US President Bush Lifts Ban on Offshore Drilling, Tells Congress: Bring it On!

Image Source

In the last year or two, President Bush has become quite bashful about confronting an out of control US Congress. But in a rare act of willful provocation to an inept Congress, Bush has thrown down the gauntlet of domestic energy production.

President Bush lifted an executive ban on offshore oil and gas drilling Monday, putting more pressure on congressional Democrats to address GOP calls to open more acreage for domestic energy exploration.

The executive ban, established under Bush's father in 1990, is coupled with another prohibition Congress established in 1981, so lawmakers on Capitol Hill must rollback the congressional ban before energy companies can start looking for oil and gas in the Outer Continental Shelf....the move increases pressure on congressional Democrats to confront a Republican measure that would open offshore drilling sites 50 miles from much of the country's coastline. Democratic leaders have blocked votes on this amendment in recent weeks, despite calls from their own members to consider it.

"With this action, the executive branch's restrictions on this exploration have been cleared away," Bush told reporters during a brief press conference in the White House Rose Garden. "This means that the only thing standing between the American people and these vast oil resources is action from the U.S. Congress. Now the ball is squarely in Congress's court." _Source

Don't expect a lot of action from Pelosi and Boxer's Congress, however. The US Congress is determined to gum up the works of the US economy at least until after Novemeber elections. They are gambling that the US voting public will not notice what the unpopular legislators are attempting.

Meanwhile, contrary to peak oil doomsterism, proven oil reserves are increasing rather than decreasing.

In the Americas, proven oil reserves have increased from 170 billion barrels to 180 billion barrels over the last two decades, according to the 2008 Statistical World Review from British Petroleum. In Europe and Eurasia, proven oil reserves almost doubled, from 76 billion barrels to 144. Africa's proven oil reserves did double, from 58 billion barrels to 117. Even the Asia Pacific region, where China and India are reputed to be sucking up everything in sight, has increased its proven reserves. And the Middle East, the gas tank of the world, shows no sign of slowing down -- its reserves soared by almost 200 billion barrels, from a whopping 567 billion barrels to a super-whopping 756.

...But this is still not the end of it. Unconventional oil reserves are now in play. In 2005, the Rand Corporation estimated that the oil shale in America's Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, contains 1.5 to 1.8 trillion barrels of oil, with as much as 1.1 trillion barrels of oil recoverable, an amount comparable to the reserves of four Saudi Arabias. Oil shale becomes recoverable at $95 a barrel, it determined. With oil now trading at $140 a barrel, oil shale exploitation is now very much economic. Then there's Canada's tar sands, with its even greater potential--estimates of the total reserves that may be available top two trillion barrels, or eight Saudi Arabias.

This is still not the end to it. Most of the oil we know about lies in the well travelled portions of the globe. But most of the world remains unexplored -- the interiors of Africa, Asia and South America have seen relatively little oil exploration. Oil exploration in the oceans, too, is in its infancy. For all practical purposes, mankind has limitless oil supplies available to it. The story is similar for natural gas and coal, the other major nonrenewable sources of energy. And for nuclear power. And for the renewables. _Much More at the Source

We know that both solar and geothermal energy can potentially power the entire Earth's human population thousands of times over. Biomass and algae have the potential to eventually take over for fossil fuels, in a few decades. Nuclear fusion may not be far off, if the good news from the Bussard research group on IEC fusion continues. Safer and more reliable fission designs that are scalable for most any size from small towns to mega-cities are close to production stage.

This is not a time to talk doom. The only type of peak oil on the horizon is political peak oil, for which we can largely thank the US Congress of Pelosi and Boxer.

H/T Icecap

Frozen Methane Clathrates Beneath the Seafloor: Waiting for Doomsday?

Deep in the Nankai trough off the southwestern coast of Japan, geologists from 21 countries are studying the makeup of rock beneath the seafloor. They are hoping to better understand the monstrous forces acting upon tectonic plates--that can cause killer earthquakes and tsunamis. But they are making other discoveries perhaps more important to man's fate on Earth.

The research team aboard the scientific drilling vessel Chikyu also found a methane hydrate-rich zone at one drill site, spreading out just 220 to 400 metres below the seafloor. This solid form of water, also known as methane ice, is believed to develop on the seafloor and deep in the sedimentary structures due to migration of gas from the depth of the Earth along geological faults that then crystallises on contact with cold sea water as a result of temperature and pressure. The ice contains large amounts of methane and is considered by some as a future source of fossil energy.

Source

True, methane is a clean-burning fossil fuel that could potentially ease the transition from a fossil fuel economy to a cleaner, more sustainable energy economy. But is there a more sinister face to methane, hiding behind the beneficent appearance of an energy solution? China and India are pursuing the development of this undersea methane treasure trove, so it would be good to understand the potential dangers.

The People's Republic of China is investing millions to study this massive source of energy. The same holds true for India, South Korea and Taiwan, all nations that are on a fast track to surpassing the West as economic powers....World reserves of the frozen gas are enormous. Geologists estimate that significantly more hydrocarbons are bound in the form of methane hydrate than in all known reserves of coal, natural gas and oil combined....

Source

If there is more methane beneath the seafloor than all other fossil fuels combined, the opportunity to use the cleaner fuel may be too great for China's monstrously consuming energy sector to ignore. India's huge population rivals that of China, which forces that country to pursue ever larger energy sources. What of the dangers?

Fifty-five million years ago the world's climate was catastrophically changed when volcanoes melted natural gas frozen in the seabed....

Source

Some climate scientists claim that it was volcanic eruption causing massive methane release that killed the dinosaurs--not cometary or asteroid collisions. Their evidence is weak, but the more radical the claim--particularly if you can connect it with global warming--the better the research grant. If one could somehow break open the seafloor and decompress and unfreeze the frozen methane clathrates, it would be better not to light a match above the surfacing bubbles.

If geologists are to drill for methane beneath the seafloor, they had best do it carefully. Unlike CO2, methane actually is a strong greenhouse gas, and it is not a plant food. Like most of the industrial chemicals upon which modern civilisation is based, methane is useful as long as kept in its proper place.

In Cormac McCarthy's "The Road", he describes a world of ash and soot. A world without plant life, without ocean life. The soil itself is dead and cannot support life. It is a desolate world seemingly without hope.

Of course, McCarthy is an excellent writer but he is no scientist. The world he describes, populated by the people in the book, is not likely to exist. But if you can imagine a world where the very air is consumed in fire, where the earth burns, the ocean burns, where all plant and animal life dies except perhaps what is underground with a plentiful food, water, and air supply--you can imagine such a hopeless world.

Is there enough frozen methane buried underground and undersea to light up such a global conflagration? Perhaps. But if it is triggered, it will not be from anthropogenic global warming. Earth has seen much warmer days, the seas have been much warmer and more acidic, CO2 levels have been many multiples of current levels. Humans are not pushing the envelope of Earth's ability to adjust.

Only nature--in its volcanism, its seismic capacity, its ability to fling cosmic rock and ice onto the planet from space--only nature can trigger that doomsday. If it happens, many will claim that it was "God", and many will claim that it was man, who triggered the death. But it will be neither. Nature does not get angry, does not get careless, does not carry out vendettas. It is nothing personal.

Canadian Oilmen Learning to Like THAI Takeout?

Recent posts at Advanced Nanotechnology and Energy Blog shine a spotlight on Toe to Heel Air Injection (THAI) technology for extracting oil from tar sands deposits.

THAI™ uses a system where air is injected into the oil deposit down a vertical well and is ignited. The heat generated in the reservoir reduces the viscosity of the heavy oil, allowing it to drain into a second, horizontal well from where it rises to the surface.

THAI™ is very efficient, recovering about 70 to 80 per cent of the oil, compared to only 10 to 40 per cent using other technologies.

Duvernay Petroleum’s heavy oil field in Peace River contains 100 million barrels and this will be a first test of THAI™ on heavy oil, for which THAI™ was originally developed. Duvernay Petroleum has signed a contract with the Canadian firm Petrobank, which owns THAI™, to use the process.

The THAI™ process was first used by Petrobank at its Christina Lake site in the Athabasca Oil Sands, Canada, in June 2006 in a pilot operation which is currently producing 3,000 barrels of oil a day. This was on deposits of bitumen - similar to the surface coating of roads - rather than heavy oil.

Petrobank is applying for permission to expand this to 10,000 barrels a day though there is a potential for this to rise to 100,000.

The 50,000 acre site owned by Petrobank contains an estimated 2.6 billion barrels of bitumen. The Athabasca Oil Sands region is the single largest petroleum deposit on earth, bigger than that of Saudi Arabia.

Source

THAI promises much better efficiencies for tar sands recovery which converts to better profitability for investors. The huge deposits of tar sands in Canada and Venezuela dwarf the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. For tar sands, the future is now.

Toe to Heel Air Injection recovery is not suitable for shale oils, but other in situ processes for shale oil recovery are being perfected which should make those resources available for substantial recovery within 15 years.

New Sources of Domestic Hydrocarbon Fuels

The technology featured in the video above is but one technology of several that are coaxing large amounts of new oil out of old North American oil wells once thought depleted. The graphic below illustrates how oil wells that have "peaked" may be re-energised to "peak" again.There are a lot of reasons to suspect that "peak oil" has been hyped far beyond any contact with reality.

The U.S. DOE calculates that amount of oil in already discovered U.S oilfields at less than 5000 feet to be more than 218 billion barrels. Keep in mind that just 10% of that equals 10 years of OPEC imports at today’s rates, all of it is enough to run the U.S. economy for 25 years. All of which is just sitting there, in known places, thousands of them that at the 5000-foot and shallower level which exceed the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia. It also leaves out all the oil left behind when wells ran dry – which comes to 300 billion barrels. It’s a resource that the 7000 or so non “Big Oil” U.S. oil companies can bring to market.

New Energy and Fuel

Better drilling and discovery technology is likely to bring in a lot of new conventional oil. What other new petroleum resources are in the pipeline?

In a massive new multivolume report on energy strategy in the United States, a high-powered federal task force puts "peak oil" into perspective. On the one hand, it says, the country has already consumed, in 150 years, 446 billion barrels of its own fossil-fuel endowment. On the other hand, it says, the country has 8.59 trillion barrels left - or more "oil equivalent" than the rest of the world combined. More than 95 per cent of America's oil reserves, in other words, are still in the ground.

Key phrase? "Oil equivalent". Wrap your head around that - "more "oil equivalent" than the rest of the world combined."

For instance - oil shale:

"North American oil shale and [oil] sands alone far exceed all the remaining proven and undiscovered oil resources of the entire world," the task force reports. "They represent 3.5 trillion barrels of oil resources. America's commercial-quality oil shale resources alone exceed two trillion barrels. This shale can be processed to generate ultraclean, high-quality diesel and jet fuels, along with high-value chemicals - with existing technologies under normal economic conditions."

Q and O

Several other interesting technologies for producing new hydrocarbons include energy from garbage (landfills), oil from discarded automobiles (tires, foams, plastics etc.), oil from biowaste (with catalysts, T, P) and oil from synthetic micro-organisms. Many more ingenious energy technologies are in the pipeline. $100 a barrel oil is a powerful incentive for innovation.

As I have stated before, I am a firm believer in photovoltaics, wind energy, micro hydro, OTEC, tidal energy, geothermal, and other clean forms of energy. I am also a proponent of using safe nuclear energy as a way of easing the transition from dirty oil and coal to cleaner, sustainable power.

It is time for the pop media and other influential but unserious voices to stop promoting false images of doom such as CAGW and Peak Oil. We need to outgrow these childish tendencies to promote dishonest scare tactics just to get attention. We need all the brainpower we have to effect a fairly smooth transition to long term clean energy, while also working to bring about the next level.
Hat tip Philosophical Detective

Community-Scale Nuclear Power--Appropriate Technology for the Nuclear Age?

Bury this hot-tub sized nuclear-decay battery in an underground vault, connect it via heat-exchanger with a high-efficiency steam turbine, and use the 27 Megawatts of heat to provide power for 25,000 homes.

The company Hyperion Power Generation was formed last month to develop the nuclear fission reactor at Los Alamos National Laboratory and take it into the private sector. If all goes according to plan, Hyperion could have a factory in New Mexico by late 2012, and begin producing 4,000 of these reactors.

Though it would produce 27 megawatts worth of thermal energy, Hyperion doesn’t like to think of its product as a “reactor.” It’s self-contained, involves no moving parts and, therefore, doesn’t require a human operator.

...“The lab [ed: LANL] is doing a lot of work on oil shales and oil sands, but there’s no way to get power to those facilities,” Blackwell says. “So, this nuclear battery would be brought in and that would provide the power to run a small city of industrial use.”

Blackwell also envisions that the battery could be used at military bases, as well as in the developing world, where poverty is a product of a lack of electricity and clean drinking water. This week, Hyperion meets with its first potential clients, but Blackwell hopes to approach the United Nations and international humanitarian groups.

Santa Fe Reporter

Antinuclear activists and other naysayers say that it could never work, and even if it could, it would be "wrong." But atomic batteries have a long history of reliable service in space probes and other critical uses. Using such a battery (or small-scale reactors) for in situ recovery of oil shale and tar sands also makes sense.

If you are planning your large scale TEOTWAKI retreat, geared to provide a haven for individuals with the ability to "jump-start" civilisation after a large-scale disaster--this nuclear battery may be the reliable power supply you have been looking for.

With reliable power, a population could thrive underground, undersea, on/beneath polar ice, or in the starkest desert (even in nuclear winter conditions). Using aeroponic food-growing technology, artificial lighting, drilled or melted water supply, sophisticated filters etc. etc. small to medium communities of many types could find a way to develop in relative isolation.

Better, safer, more reliable ways to use nuclear decay to power civilisation (or civilisation's "restart") are coming. Anti-nuclear luddites of limited cognition and competence are a dime a dozen--being mass-produced by modern "educational" systems and pop culture. But just as many "gray" and "black" market economies inevitably exist alongside the mainstream economy, the same is true for intellectual and philosophical streams of thought. It is highly questionable whether our "dumbed down" society could restart civilisation after a global catastrophic event.

Brian Wang expands on the "nuclear battery" concept, and discusses ways it could be used to speed up the trip to Mars.