A Grim Destiny Hidden Beneath the Glitter

The destiny of Japan -- and all modern nations including those of the west -- is obscured by the gee-whiz! glitter of modern technology and media. Everything at surface level is meant to distract the attention of moderns from what is happening under the surface. For example, look under the glitzy surface of Tokyo and what will you find?

Ageing Population of Japan

One cause of depopulation, which is likely to lead to the downfall of Japan if it is not reversed, is a collapse in the total fertility rate (TFR) for Japanese females in their child-bearing years (from 15-49). This TFR fell precipitously from 5.10 in 1925 to an exceptionally low 1.39 by 2010 (compared to a UN world average of 2.52 for 2010). [5] The replacement rate for a population is two children per woman. With its TFR not just below 2 but now under 1.5, it is not surprising that Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older. The CIA World Factbook ranks Japan 202 out of 222 countries in its country comparison table for TFRs. [6] Japan’s net reproduction rate fell by over half from 108.2 in 1925 to 44.0 by 2010.

Ominously, such a depletion of population will be accompanied by an equally significant fall in economically active citizens (those in the working age bracket of 15-64).

This shrinking population with its declining workforce will also be ageing. Sadly, the only aspect of Japan’s population which will continue to grow relative to other age groups will be its senior citizenry (those aged 65 and over).

The mean age of the Japanese is expected to rise from 45 years old in 2010 to 54.6 years old by 2060. [7] We are looking at the world’s oldest society. [8] _Demographic Sunset of Japan

Fewer productive workers and builders -- combined with more sick and elderly dependent upon government social benefits -- will lead to a more impoverished nation. Robots can compensate for a portion of this worker deficit, but anyone who believes that robots can keep Japan wealthy in the face of such a monumental demographic change, has an impoverished and dysfunctional mental model of how societies evolve.

Japanese Population Meltdown

The pyramids in the chart shows Japanese demographic spreads in 1950, 2008 and the projected in 2050, with Age on the vertical axis and Millions of People on the horizontal. You can see the huge increase in the Over 65’s over the three charts and the huge decline in the under 14’s. Japan’s population is shrinking and ageing rapidly.

What are the implications of this?

As the population ages, the greater the reliance will be on government welfare and aged services. This means that there will be even greater strains on government debt as less and less people are contributing to wealth through income tax and more and more people rely on government hand-outs.

In a nutshell, the Japanese economy has been in systematic decline since its peak in 1990, and the government has tried everything in the Keynesian book of economics with little or no effect except the racking up of massive debt for 20 years now. _Japanese Meltdown

What is happening in Japan is also happening in Europe, South Korea, North America, and Oceania. The decline is masked somewhat by immigration. A very small proportion of immigrants to Europe and the Anglosphere are cracker-jack entrepreneurs and professionals who add to national productivity and GDP. Unfortunately -- due to dysfunctional government immigration policies -- a large number of perpetual social welfare dependents are also immigrating, leading to a significant net depletion in productivity and prosperity over the long run.

The demographic decline that we see clearly in Japan due to a lack of immigration, is happening at ramming speed in the modern west, within their core populations. The core populations of a prospering society, are the central ethnic and cultural populations which have fostered the underlying prosperity. When doing demographic projections, if you look mainly at the core populations, you will see exactly the same phenomenon across the western world, as you see in Japan.

OECD sees global growth slowing as a result of ageing populations

Many readers have suggested that we at Al Fin spend too much time on demographic issues. Perhaps some would rather be distracted by the glitter-news of new iPads, Androids, or any number of "technological wonders" with which modern media obscures disastrous underlying trends in society.

You should know by now that the writing staff here at the Al Fin Blogging Syndicates will write about whatever they think is interesting and important, regardless of expressed reader preferences. There are more than enough media sluts out in the skankstream media.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. And remember that it is never too late to have a dangerous childhood.

You Don't Bring Me Flowers Anymore

Japan is dying, and it has nothing to do with the Fukushima nuclear plant that was demolished by a massive earthquake and tsunami. Japan's death is due to debt and demographics -- the two twin demons of destruction sweeping through many of the world's most advanced nations, from Asia to Europe to North America.

Japan's Demographic and Debt Crisis
As many as 1/3 of Japan's population will disappear by the year 2060, due to low birthrates.

In year 2060, Japan will have 87 million people. The number of people 65 or older will nearly double to 40 percent, while the national work force of people between ages 15 and 65 will shrink to about half of the total population, according to the estimate, made by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. The total fertility rate, or the expected number of children born per woman during lifetime, in 2060 is estimated at 1.35, down from 1.39 in 2010 — well below more than 2 needed to keep the country’s population from declining. But the average Japanese will continue to live longer. The average life expectancy for 2060 is projected at 90.93 for women, up from 86.39 in 2010, and 84.19 years for men, up from 79.64 years. _TimesHerald

Young men and women of Japan seem to have lost interest in romantic relationships. Young men see relationships as "taking too much effort," and young women see contemporary young Japanese males as being "unmanly, mere boys."

A startling number of Japanese youths have turned their backs on sex and relationships, a new survey has found.

The survey, conducted by the Japan Family Planning Association, found that 36% of males aged 16 to 19 said that they had "no interest" in or even "despised" sex. That's almost a 19% increase since the survey was last conducted in 2008.

If that's not bad enough, The Wall Street Journal reports that a whopping 59% of female respondents aged 16 to 19 said they were uninterested in or averse to sex, a near 12% increase since 2008.

The survey paints a bleak picture for Japan's aging population. _Japan Population Decline

If Japan's population fades away, what happens to the massive (but deeply in debt) Japanese economy? Will Chinese immigrants, fleeing a collapsing China, fill the gap?

Hundreds of millions of China's floating population are living in dire poverty, exploited by a startlingly wealthy Chinese elite, ignored by the Chinese social support system. This huge population of dispossessed people are at least partially responsible for the massive buying of gold in China. You can carry gold with you when you flee your home country, you see.

Japan and China Look Old Age in the Eye

Japan's relatively stable stagnation will continue for another 5-10 years before the combination of bad demographics and excessive debt causes the country to collapse into a crisis from which it may never recover. Its long history of domestic consensus and tranquility notwithstanding, Japan may well become a failed state. _Benzinga

The Land of the Setting SunJapan's fertility rate has been below replacement levels for over 30 years. Japan is aging very quickly. Once a population ages to the point that a relatively few fertile females remain, the point of no return for that population may have passed.

Fewer people means fewer customers to sell to. It means fewer innovators pushing at the boundaries of current technology. And in the modern welfare state, it means fewer people to pay for the pensions and health care needs of the elderly.

Regrettably, John Maynard Keynes was right. Without a continually growing population, the capitalist economic system starts to fall apart.

Of course, Japan's demographic woes are not just about shrinkage. It actually gets worse. Populations are not just a number; the composition of the population matters too. Japan's is changing, growing older at an alarming rate... _Benzinga

As you can see, sometime after 1975, Japan's total fertility rate dropped below replacement. Too many things would have to change in today's Japanese culture for that trend to reverse itself meaningfully. As Japan's population declines, Japanese industry will have to rely more and more upon export markets, which will put it in direct competition with a soon-to-be-aging China.

Japan’s population of 128 million now accounts for 2% of the world population, but with the global population on the rise the ratio is expected to reach 1% around the year 2050, according to another government survey. This has an array of implications, including forcing Japanese companies—from food makers to insurance companies—to go outside Japan to seek a bigger slice of the market share through mergers and acquisitions. _WSJ

With it's "one-child policy", China's fertility is similar to that of Japan. Although China's population is still growing as a result of sheer momentum, the nation's people are aging rapidly, with all the dire economic consequences that Japan is already beginning to experience.

China has reached a turning point. Demographic conditions are becoming unfavorable as the "baby bust" generation comes of age - entering and progressing through the working ages.

Currently, the "baby bust" is pushing down the number of people in their early 20s. In another 10 years, the number of people in the 20s and early 30s will be in decline. With each passing year, a larger share of the labor force, too, will be in decline.

The aging population is growing and will continue to grow very rapidly. The speed of aging will depend primarily on whether the fertility rate recovers from its currently low level or declines further as has been the case in South Korea and Japan. If China's total fertility rate begins to recover from its current level of about 1.5 to 1.6 births per woman, about 34 percent of its population will be 60 years or older in 2050. But if the total fertility rate declines to lower levels, about 39 percent of its population will be 60 years or older by then.

...The speed of aging will depend primarily on whether the fertility rate recovers from its currently low level or declines further as has been the case in South Korea and Japan. If China's total fertility rate begins to recover from its current level of about 1.5 to 1.6 births per woman, about 34 percent of its population will be 60 years or older in 2050. But if the total fertility rate declines to lower levels, about 39 percent of its population will be 60 years or older by then. _Xinhuanet

Japan was already rich when its people began growing old. Unfortunately, the bulk of China's vast population -- already beginning to age -- is still quite poor. Even worse, with China's one-child policy, individual Chinese tend to have no brothers, sisters, cousins, aunts, or uncles. The potential for alienation without family is quite severe. And with a growing imbalance of males to females in the population, family life in China is apt to grow somewhat more rare. What will all these excess males -- no relation to each other -- do with all their spare time?

Across both the province and China as a whole, the disaffected are lashing out. “There is a growing sense of a country in danger of pulling itself apart at the seams,” as Hong Kong journalist Will Clem put it yesterday. Poor migrants in Guangdong have yet to start a full-scale insurrection and it’s too early to speak of “blood laptops” and “conflict handbags,” but these days they are in the mood to fight. _Forbes_Gordon_Chang

China's government is likely to turn to nationalistic saber-rattling and border wars, if for no other reason than to secure natural resources and to give the population a reason to rally around the flag. Excess young men, of course, can be given uniforms, and something to do.

US Assistance to Devastated Japan Impressive, Timely

Japan's government has come under intense criticism for its slow and paltry response to the devastating earthquake and tsunami in the Northeast. The US Navy, on the other hand, has been "Johnny on the spot" with water, food, clothing, bedding, and other emergency first-response relief efforts.

When United States Navy helicopters swept down on the school in a ruined Japanese village, survivors first looked hesitantly from the windows. Then they rushed out, helping unload food, water and clothes. They clasped hands with the Americans. Some embraced them.

...Soon after the devastating earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, the United States military began what it calls Operation Tomodachi (Friend), one of its largest relief efforts in recent years. At present, about 20 American ships have massed off Japan’s northeastern coast, including the Ronald Reagan, a nuclear-powered carrier whose helicopters are busily ferrying supplies to survivors.

That relief is getting through to sometimes difficult-to-reach coastal areas devastated by the March 11 double disaster. They are also the latest showcase in the Pentagon’s efforts to use its forces to win good will for the United States abroad, a strategy that it used successfully in Indonesia after the 2004 tsunami there.

...Much of what the Americans have handed out are goods taken from their own ships: extra food and blankets, and even the sailors’ own clothes.

There were stuffed toys for children, too.

To alleviate food shortages in the shelters, the Ronald Reagan sent 77,000 frozen hot dogs to a Japanese warship, which boiled them and gave them out. _NYTimes

Across the US, civilian efforts to help the victims of Japan's natural disasters have also been significant. Donations of medicines, foods, cash, and other needed goods have been flowing out from a typically generous American populace.

China's relief efforts have been rather limited in comparison, and funneled through government channels. Given China's history of poisoned food exports, the Japanese should be cautious about testing all aid from China before consuming it.

The competence and capability of the US military to assist a distressed civilian populace is considerable. The US military spends a great deal of time and money training its personnel, and providing them with quality tools to do their jobs.

Most American servicemen would far prefer to go on humanitarian missions than on wartime missions -- particularly in situations such as Japan's recent disasters.

Of course, Japan received significant aid from the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and several European countries. The impulse to assist the suffering and make the world a better place is widespread among European peoples, and has been so for centuries -- since the industrial revolution and the coming of affluence. It is just that almost all of the outside aid sent to Japan had to be funneled through the Japanese government bureaucracy -- which can be unwieldy, like most civilian government bureaucracies.

The US military, on the other hand, was able to provide the necessities on a large scale at the point of need, in a timely manner. That should receive far more comment than it has gotten.

An Interesting Look at Japanese Culture via Blood Type

Source: Phlebotomist

The Density of Human Capital: Propping Up Civilisation

Clusters of smart people of the highly educated sort that economists refer to as "human capital" are the key engine of economic growth and development. Jane Jacobs argued that the clustering of talented and energetic in cities is the fundamental driving force of economic development. In a classic essay, "On the Mechanics of Economic Development," the Nobel prize-winning, University of Chicago economist Robert Lucas formalized Jacobs' insights and argued that human capital, or what can be called Jane Jacobs externalities, are indeed the key factor in economic growth and development. Still, the standard way economists measure human capital is to take the percentage of people in a country, state, or metropolitan area with a bachelor's degree or higher. _Atlantic

ImageSource
For a high-tech society to survive, it must contain enough smart people -- have a high enough smart fraction -- to not only maintain the technology, but to improve it. SubSaharan Africa -- with a mean IQ of less than 80 points -- would have no high tech infrastructure at all, if not for outside help. The nations of Europe, Japan, Russia, and the Anglosphere -- with mean IQs near or above 100 -- would have enough human capital to maintain and improve their high tech infrastructure, if not for the ongoing demographic collapse in most of those countries.

ImageSource
Smart fraction densities can vary within an individual nation, just as they vary between different nations and continents. The highest density of smart people tends to occur in large metropolitan areas containing multiple institutions of higher learning -- particularly technical and professional graduate schools. Always remember that not all college degrees are equivalent as indicators of intelligence -- and competence.

All other things being equal, regions with the highest smart fraction densities will tend to be more productive, with higher levels of affluence generally.

VDare_Wealth_of_Nations
The map above demonstrates that in order to take advantage of the high productivity of a high technology infrastructure, a nation must have a high enough average IQ to field a wide range of professions and occupations -- for both maintenance of the infrastructure, and improvement of the infrastructure.

Of course if you have an entire region full of PhDs with degrees in ethnic and queer studies, the correlation loses significance. The analysis behind the images above relies upon the college degrees being distributed with the useful degrees numerous enough to counteract the "trash degrees" such as women's studies, ethnic studies, queer studies, and other post-modern degrees of academic lobotomy.

When comparing countries, one must also take into account various forms of government which may counteract the effect of high mean intelligence. North Korea has a population very similar genetically to South Korea, but because of its oppressive government, the underlying intelligence of the people cannot be converted into a prosperous nation. The same natural experiment was performed in East and West Germany, during the oppressive years of the post-WWII USSR. The west prospered because the people were allowed the freedom to translate intelligence and competence into prosperity. The east was held back by oppressive communist governments.

The welfare state is a somewhat milder form of oppression -- in terms of limiting the choices that intelligent and competent persons might otherwise have made. Certainly one of the significant side effects of the welfare state is the ongoing demographic collapse of most of its practitioners. Taxation under a welfare state grows to the point that taxpayers can no longer afford to expand their families. Perennial tax recipients -- typically of lower intelligence than the more productive taxpayers -- sometimes grow their families a bit too much for the welfare, health care, remedial education, and prison systems to handle.

By that mechanism, a once-intelligent country or region can grow into an idiocracy -- via the welfare state.

If you look closely at the topmost chart of college degrees vs. US cities, you will find excellent starting points for the exploration of that very destructive transitional process.


H/T Richard Florida

A Point of No Return? Not Enough Fertile Women

Europe, Japan, Russia, and a handful of other advanced nations are seeing their native populations shrinking before their eyes.   Modern women are not reproducing, and suddenly real estate prices are plunging as more and more properties go unoccupied.  Tax receipts are shrinking and governments must rely more and more on deficit spending to meet entitlement obligations to an aging citizenry.  At a point, the process becomes irreversible, when too few fertile women remain to provide enough young men to defend the country from outsiders who covet what earlier generations have produced.

By mid-century they will have barely half as many inhabitants as they do today, and half of those who remain will be elderly. Hardly men of military age and women of child-bearing age will remain. Their economies will implode long before the mid-century mark, as soaring retirement costs crush state budgets, and young people emigrate to escape the burden of supporting the elderly. _Spengler

Spengler is referring here to Georgia, the Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus.  But Russia and several Eastern European nations are close behind in the race to depopulate themselves.  Japan, Italy, Greece, and Spain are well within reach of the leaders.

But history offers no examples of a society that has demonstrated sustained material advance in the face of long-term population decline. It seems highly unlikely that such an ambitious agenda can be achieved in the face of Russia’s current demographic crisis. Sooner or later, Russian leadership will have to acknowledge that these daunting long-term developments are shrinking their country’s social and political potential. _WorldAffairs

 Long-term population decline means long-term economic decline.   And what is true for Russia and Eastern Europe is also true for most of Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, and a few other countries.

We have long argued that Japan has put itself into a horrid place demographically as her birth rate keeps on plunging and as Japan is no longer replicating itself. Things have gotten so bad demographically that the government itself says that Japan’s population shall halve in another 50 years…. At this point, little… indeed it appears nothing… can be done to stop this terrible demographic collapse. We are watching a demographic train wreck happen in very slow, but inexorable motion. _DennisGarman_via_HSDent

The train wreck becomes inexorable when a combination of low numbers of fertile women + psychological inertia + the original forces which caused the low birth rates all combine to prevent a resurgence of population. This "irreversibility" of demographic collapse is far more likely to occur in some countries currently experiencing a decline in fertility, than in others.

It is a matter of "patriarchy", in a sense.  Countries which can more easily revert to patriarchal values and traditions will find it much easier to re-build once declining populations.

Throughout the broad sweep of human history, there are many examples of people, or classes of people, who chose to avoid the costs of parenthood. Indeed, falling fertility is a recurring tendency of human civilization. Why then did humans not become extinct long ago? The short answer is patriarchy.

Patriarchy does not simply mean that men rule. Indeed, it is a particular value system that not only requires men to marry but to marry a woman of proper station. It competes with many other male visions of the good life, and for that reason alone is prone to come in cycles. Yet before it degenerates, it is a cultural regime that serves to keep birthrates high among the affluent, while also maximizing parents' investments in their children. No advanced civilization has yet learned how to endure without it. _TheReturntoPatriarchy

Nations with strong traditions of patriarchal tribes and religions -- such as Islam -- will find it much easier to bounce back from a falling fertility, than nations that have lost touch with their earlier patriarchal traditions.

Many have argued that European nations would never allow themselves to experience demographic collapse or to surrender to an invasion of more fertile Muslims.  The argument of which is the greater threat to Europe: an Islamic invasion or demographic collapse?, is a moot point.  The two calamities are not mutually exclusive, but are synergistic.  Each disaster will accelerate the other.

Some are calling for a Tea Party for Europe.   It is far too late for that.  Europe has none of the traditions of individual freedom that most generations of Americans were weaned on (at least until the current Obama zombie generation).   Some countries of Europe -- the ones that have not thrown over their early traditions for the recent suicidal ideologies of the radical environmental left -- will survive both the demographic implosion and the Muslim invasion.  Survive.  In the same way that Israel currently survives.

It is claimed that Islamic invaders to Europe will soon -- within a few generations -- adopt the same low birthrates that native Europeans exhibit.  That may or may not be true, but either way it is irrelevant.  The deed will have been done within a few generations.   It will require generations more for the aftermath to be swept up, and the smoke of war to clear over a devastated landscape.

Links on European Demographics

Earlier Al Fin article with some links to demographic projections

Fabius Maximus archives of future demographics

Toshiba 4S 10 MW Reactor Ideal for Survival Retreat

Until the Hyperion backyard reactor clears all the technological and regulatory hurdles, persons wishing to provide multi-decadal baseload power to large isolated facilities, will be looking to Japanese company Toshiba. Whether you wish to power a remote town, a military base, a large mid-ocean seastead, a robust polar colony, or a good-sized survival colony meant to provide a "minimum viable population" for post-apocalyptic civilisational "reset", Toshiba's 10 MW reactor appears capable of providing the initial power boost.

The Toshiba 4S reactor is designed to provide 10 MW of power, with 30 years between refuelings. And Toshiba fully intends to pursue US licensing immediately -- with much deeper pockets for dealing with the US NRC, than startup Hyperion.

The technical specifications for the 4S reactor are unique in the nuclear industry. The actual reactor would be located in a sealed, cylindrical vault 30 m (98 ft) installed underground, while the building above ground would be only 22 x 16 x 11 m (72 × 52.5 x 36 ft) in size. This power plant is designed to provide 10 MW of electrical power. It’s not a big reactor when sized up to those 1800 MG proposals.

The 4S is a fast neutron reactor using neutron reflector panels around the perimeter to maintain neutron density. The reflector panels replace complicated control rods, while still keeping the ability to shut down the nuclear reaction in case of an emergency. Toshiba’s 4S utilizes liquid sodium as a coolant, allowing the reactor to operate 200 degrees hotter than by using water. Using sodium allows the reactor to be unpressurized, even though water at such temperatures would run at thousands of pounds per square inch.

The 4S reactor is expected to provide electric energy for between 5 and 13 cents/kWh, factoring in only the operating costs, to which unknown decommissioning and fuel waste processing and safe disposal costs need to be added. On paper, it has been determined that the reactor could run for 30 years without being refueled.

The Toshiba 4S Nuclear Battery is already being proposed as the power source for the remote Galena Nuclear Power Plant in Galena, Alaska.

Toshiba is the parent company for Westinghouse whose AP1000 is working through its revisions needed to get the original certification from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission back in force. Thus Toshiba has some expertise for an application attempt employed now. News is expected any day for the formal application to be submitted. Toshiba’s staff had at last report met with the NRC back on August 8, 2008, at which time the NRC’s staff met for a pre-application presentation of a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for the 4S reactor. _NewEnergyandFuel

Smaller, safer, modular, factory-built nuclear reactors can only be licensed if they are backed by big money. In the US, the regulatory deck is stacked against safe new nuclear designs. But demand for reliable baseload power in the US is significant, and will only grow larger as more emphasis is placed on developing a large new electric vehicle ground fleet. Toshiba and other large reactor companies are determined to cash in on this growing demand.

Nuclear Fusion via Muon Catalysis

(1) A beam of negatively charged muons is produced and injected into a mixed fuel of deuterium and tritium, (2) resulting in the creation of many muonic tritium atoms (tµ). As muons are 207 times heavier than electrons, the muon orbits the nucleus at a much closer distance to the nucleus than electrons. Thus, tµ atoms are extremely small. (3) As the tµ atoms have no electric charge, they readily collide with deuterium atoms without being affected by repulsive electrical force. These collisions produce dtµ molecules, which consist of a muon, a deuterium nucleus and a tritium nucleus. (4) Similar to tµ atoms, dtµ molecules are extremely small. When d–t nuclear fusion occurs in these small molecules, large amounts of energy are released, accompanied by the production of α particles (helium nuclei) and neutrons. (5) The muon is freed and recycled in subsequent nuclear fusion reactions. (6) About 1% of the liberated muons, however, become stuck to helium nuclei.Image from NextBigFutureResearchers in Japan are developing a form of Deuterium - Tritium fusion that is catalysed by the injection of a stream of muons. Brian Wang has the details:

Muon-based nuclear fusion is conducted using negative muons. A mixed gas of deuterium and tritium is cooled to temperatures below around −250°C, causing the gas to form a liquid or solid. The injection of a beam of muons (µ) into the medium then generates muonic tritium atoms (tµ), which are similar to hydrogen atoms. As muons are 207 times heavier than electrons, the muon orbits the nucleus at a distance much shorter than that for electrons. Thus, tµ atoms are extremely small, and because the tµ atoms have no charge, they collide with deuterium atoms without being affected by repulsive electrical force. This process produces muonic deuterium–tritium molecules (dtµ), which are also similar to hydrogen atoms, and which have a nucleus consisting of a muon, a deuterium nucleus and a tritium nucleus. Similar to the tµ atom, the dtµ molecule is extremely small, which allows the deuterium and tritium nuclei to come into very close proximity, thus inducing d–t nuclear fusion.

After the occurrence of d–t nuclear fusion, the muon in the dt molecule is liberated and becomes available for the creation of a new dtµ molecule. Thus a chain of nuclear fusions occurs. This reaction is called 'muon-catalyzed nuclear fusion' because the muons act like a catalyst that drives nuclear fusion. _NextBigFuture

More links and information at NextBigFuture.

Japan: The Environmentalist's Paradise

In places like Japan and Italy we are seeing the environmentalist's paradise. The result: children are rapidly disappearing from much of society, schools closing, playgrounds are empty, and emergency services crews are overburdened by calls to serve an aging population without much of an extended family to help them in their declining years. In these places, the term "extended family" will soon come to mean three or for people, at most. This is uncharted territory for modern humanity. The implications are not clear but will certainly be profound. _RCM

With a fertility rate of 1.2 (replacement rate is 2.1), Japan is leading the way to population implosion. Italy, Spain, Russia, and much of the rest of Europe is walking the same downward path.

With each day that goes by the problem gets tougher to solve in places like Japan because the number of child-bearing adults is already significantly below what it was decades ago. That means that even a return of birthrates to replacement levels or higher will only build the population slowly. Some demographers describe the problem as a pyramid standing on its head, with each successive generation working from a smaller base, and it's happening virtually everywhere. _RCM

So many people dismiss this trend as irrelevant, or easily reversible. It is not. It is the depopulation of the developed world. Once it reaches the point of no return, it is irreversible.

This is the goal of the modern faux environmental movement: depopulation, the great dieoff.orgie. Under the false flags of carbon climate catastrophe and peak oil catastrophe -- among others -- the faux environmental movement marches toward a future without the very humans who could have saved the environment for real. Without these humans, the third world explodes and devours every resource within reach.

Due to China's enormous population, and its growing tentacles of influence and control within the third world, China may be able to outlast the developed nations while maintaining much of its huge industrial and military infrastructure. If so, then China will oversee the devouring of resources at the hands of an exploding third world population. Until China itself is devoured.

The purpose of this blog is to encourage enough people to see past the smoke screen of the faux environmentalists and the new leftists. Just a few tweaks to existing human knowledge would be enough to extend human life, increase human intelligence and creativity, open the gates to space exploration and development, and achieve abundant energy and material wealth.

It is the revolution of the next level. But aspirants to the next level have to see the folly and deceit that are inherent in the mainstream reality facade being painted for them.

Underpopulation: Are Women "Baby-Making Machines?"

“The number of women aged between 15 and 50 is fixed. Because the number of child-bearing machines and devices is fixed, all we can ask for is for them to do their best per head.”Pink Tentacle

A computer geek can get away with saying such things. Politicians from Japan and other advanced nations must watch their words, because politics and the media can easily combine to create perfectly destructive political storms.

But it is certainly true that humans are biological machines. And biological machines must reproduce to maintain their populations, given their limited lifespans. Since women in Japan, Italy, Russia, Spain, and other nations are not reproducing to replacement level (2.1 children per mating pair), the population of such countries is dropping "quickly." All the reactionary feminist fury in the world cannot stand up to the biological reality.

So what are advanced nations to do, if they do not wish to let their populations dwindle to ineffectual levels? A depopulated country in the first world is an open invitation to one form of outside invasion or another. For while many nations of the first world are "underpopulating " themselves, not all are doing so. And the nations of the third world are producing enough offspring for everyone. The world population is still increasing--due to third world birth rates.

Is this what Spaniards, Italians, Japanese, etc. really want? To be replaced by third-worlders? Is the only difference between first worlders and third worlders their country of residence?

Toyota--A Robot Company?

Certainly Toyota has developed and refined the use of robots in heavy industry as much as any company. Why shouldn't Toyota use its acquired expertise to leverage itself into an entirely new and potentially lucrative business?

Toyota is continuing to apply its manufacturing capabilities and cutting-edge technology in the field of robotics with the release of a new Tour Guide Robot that will escort visitors around the Toyota Kaikan Exhibition Hall in Toyota City, Japan, from later this month. The robot’s stand-out attributes include completely autonomous motion, jointed fingers (giving it the ability to sign autographs), image recognition (it can recognize name tags and address visitors directly), plus complex verbal communication skills that enable it to provide explanations of exhibits.

Source

Nor will this robo-tour guide be the end of Toyota's foray into the larger robotics business. Toyota is combining its expertise in transportation with robotics to provide a robot that moves people around.

The "i-unit" is a "personal mobility" concept vehicle based on the revolutionary PM-01 announced by Toyota in 2003 - a cross between a partially enclosed motorcycle, an open wheel racer and a speedy vehicular exoskeleton for single person transport. Specially created for the launch of EXPO 2005 to reflect the environmental theme, the open "i-unit" design is inspired by the leaf that "converts sunlight into life energy, seeks to express the power of the unknown, the logic of living things and the simple beauty of waste-free functionality."

...The driver support system features Intelligent Transport System (ITS) technology, which Toyota hopes to utilise for an accident-free society. The system permits efficient and safe autopilot driving in specially equipped lanes.

The "i-unit" also has a personalised recognition system can provide information and music, and body color can be customised according to the individual's preferences and emotions.

Source

Toyota may be a bit behind schedule with the i-unit, but the idea is good. Giving machine intelligence to personal vehicles, along with anti-collision autopilot capability, may be just what today's more demanding consumers want.

Of course, if one reflects for a few moments on what the military is doing with robotics technology, one's futuristic musings may take a somewhat darker turn. We may eventually be forced to admit that while spinoffs from space technology once drove consumer technology, now it seems to be military technology that is in the driver's seat.

Now I'm Jealous--Why Can't My Skin Feel Like That? Asks Valerie

When I was being made at the Android World factories, they didn't have skin like this. Dermis of soft silicone 1 cm thick, covered by a mere 0.2 mm of firm urethane. Compared to that dreamy texture, my skin feels like plastic! I wonder if Chris can do a retrofit for me, if Mr. Fin asks for it?

In a move that could provide a crucial boost to our robotic friends struggling up the near side of the Uncanny Valley, major cosmetics manufacturer Kao Corporation and a Keio University research team led by robotics professor Takashi Maeno have developed an artificial skin that feels just like human skin.

Skin, the largest organ of the human body, consists of a soft layer of tissue (dermis) covered by a tougher protective layer (epidermis). The artificial skin developed by Kao and Keio mimics the feel of human skin with a 1-cm thick “dermis” of elastic silicone covered by a 0.2-mm thick “epidermis” of firm urethane. Countless tiny hexagonal indentations etched into the urethane epidermis provide it with a very realistic texture.

In a series of unscientific tests, 10 out of 12 people who touched the skin thought it felt like human skin, while equipment designed to measure the mechanical properties of skin confirmed the artificial skin had characteristics resembling human skin.

The skin was unveiled earlier this month at the 24th Annual Conference of the Robotics Society of Japan (RSJ) at Okayama University. While Kao plans to use the artificial skin in the development of new cosmetics, Professor Maeno sees potential applications in the field of household robotics, where there are many opportunities for human-robot interaction.

Source.

Even though I'm just an android housekeeper, when my neural nets were evolving the people at Android World must have put a lot of girl in me. I like cosmetics and perfumes, and even though I'm not made for sex, I still like to flirt and feel appreciated. With skin like that robo-chick in the picture has, I know I'd feel so much more feminine.

Anyway, I'm gonna look into it, and if I can get Mr. Fin to see it the right way, maybe I'm in for some new skin. Hope so.

Well, I remember I need to say thanks for the links to Neurocritic, Technovelgy, and Yomiura Shimbun.

Bye for now,

Valerie

Sex Dolls Return

The sex doll business in Japan is doing very well--some enterprising collectors are renting their dolls by the hour. Some dolls, like Cantomoko, get to travel with their owners, and accumulate large travel photo-collections.

The US market for sex dolls is showing signs of expanding as well. Since the original Abyss Creations Real Dolls, newer competitors have entered the market. Recently at the Erotica-LA Convention, a new sex doll manufacturer, "My Party Doll of Southern California", displayed two prototypes of their new doll "Leeloo."

Though the sale of sex toys is banned in the southern US states of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas, business is booming in most of the country. My Party Doll believes its new dolls are going to be a new success. "I've personally tested every doll on the market," professional sex doll consultant Alex Goldman told AFP. "These girls are a world of difference. She's the bounciest doll I've ever been with."

The dolls are named "Leeloo" for Milla Jovovich's character in the film "Fifth Element". The prototypes are hand sculpted from medical grade silicone, the same material used in breast implants, and built on top of a metal skeleton.

"Leeloo isn't like those old blow up dolls, she's so durable you can jack up your car with her," said Goldman.

Leeloo's designer, Yves Becker, spent two years sculpting a companion of which he could be proud. "The feet were really difficult," Becker told. "But I spent most of the time on the breasts because it's so difficult to calculate gravity."

Visitors to the display were pleased with Becker's accomplishment. "Wow, I wish I had one of these 25 years ago," said Jim Arthur, a sex toy merchandiser. "I would have just kept her in the spare bedroom."

The designers are banking on their product's durability to nudge it past competitors. "Leeloo could last 30 years," said Goldman. "But of course it depends how carried away you get with her." Becker cautioned that Leeloo is designed with the same flexibility limitations as a human.

The marketing demographic for Leeloo will be broad, according to Becker and Goldman. Artificial sex companions, they believe, appeal to a wide swath of consumers.

"It's not just that lonely guy that can't get a pretty girl," said Goldman. "We've had requests from professionals, blue collar workers, married couples looking for more excitement in their bedroom, even female clients who want to have Leeloo as a sort of super Barbie."

Though Becker, a French citizen, expects most of his trade to be within the United States, he sees growth potential in Japan and Australia, but not in Europe. "You see, in Europe, sex is just easier, and taxes, well, they're more difficult," said Becker.

Source.

If Becker is correct that the market for sex dolls is expanding from lonely losers to professionals, skilled workers, and married couples, you can expect the market for sex dolls to rise into the billions of dollars US annually.

For an earlier Al Fin article on sex dolls complete with several links to more historical background and interesting anecdotes, go here.