The Density of Human Capital: Propping Up Civilisation

Clusters of smart people of the highly educated sort that economists refer to as "human capital" are the key engine of economic growth and development. Jane Jacobs argued that the clustering of talented and energetic in cities is the fundamental driving force of economic development. In a classic essay, "On the Mechanics of Economic Development," the Nobel prize-winning, University of Chicago economist Robert Lucas formalized Jacobs' insights and argued that human capital, or what can be called Jane Jacobs externalities, are indeed the key factor in economic growth and development. Still, the standard way economists measure human capital is to take the percentage of people in a country, state, or metropolitan area with a bachelor's degree or higher. _Atlantic

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For a high-tech society to survive, it must contain enough smart people -- have a high enough smart fraction -- to not only maintain the technology, but to improve it. SubSaharan Africa -- with a mean IQ of less than 80 points -- would have no high tech infrastructure at all, if not for outside help. The nations of Europe, Japan, Russia, and the Anglosphere -- with mean IQs near or above 100 -- would have enough human capital to maintain and improve their high tech infrastructure, if not for the ongoing demographic collapse in most of those countries.

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Smart fraction densities can vary within an individual nation, just as they vary between different nations and continents. The highest density of smart people tends to occur in large metropolitan areas containing multiple institutions of higher learning -- particularly technical and professional graduate schools. Always remember that not all college degrees are equivalent as indicators of intelligence -- and competence.

All other things being equal, regions with the highest smart fraction densities will tend to be more productive, with higher levels of affluence generally.

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The map above demonstrates that in order to take advantage of the high productivity of a high technology infrastructure, a nation must have a high enough average IQ to field a wide range of professions and occupations -- for both maintenance of the infrastructure, and improvement of the infrastructure.

Of course if you have an entire region full of PhDs with degrees in ethnic and queer studies, the correlation loses significance. The analysis behind the images above relies upon the college degrees being distributed with the useful degrees numerous enough to counteract the "trash degrees" such as women's studies, ethnic studies, queer studies, and other post-modern degrees of academic lobotomy.

When comparing countries, one must also take into account various forms of government which may counteract the effect of high mean intelligence. North Korea has a population very similar genetically to South Korea, but because of its oppressive government, the underlying intelligence of the people cannot be converted into a prosperous nation. The same natural experiment was performed in East and West Germany, during the oppressive years of the post-WWII USSR. The west prospered because the people were allowed the freedom to translate intelligence and competence into prosperity. The east was held back by oppressive communist governments.

The welfare state is a somewhat milder form of oppression -- in terms of limiting the choices that intelligent and competent persons might otherwise have made. Certainly one of the significant side effects of the welfare state is the ongoing demographic collapse of most of its practitioners. Taxation under a welfare state grows to the point that taxpayers can no longer afford to expand their families. Perennial tax recipients -- typically of lower intelligence than the more productive taxpayers -- sometimes grow their families a bit too much for the welfare, health care, remedial education, and prison systems to handle.

By that mechanism, a once-intelligent country or region can grow into an idiocracy -- via the welfare state.

If you look closely at the topmost chart of college degrees vs. US cities, you will find excellent starting points for the exploration of that very destructive transitional process.


H/T Richard Florida