Discovering Our Abysmal Ignorance of Life in the Sea

MontereyBayAquariumResearchInst
An entirely new species of "algae" has been discovered living in both saltwater and freshwater environments. The discovery may be much larger than the researchers dared to dream -- and reveals a deep human ignorance of what is actually happening in the world's oceans.

A team of biologists has discovered an entirely new group of algae living in a wide variety of marine and freshwater environments. This group of algae, which the researchers dubbed "rappemonads," have DNA that is distinctly different from that of other known algae. In fact, humans and mushrooms are more closely related to each other than rappemonads are to some other common algae (such as green algae). Based on their DNA analysis, the researchers believe that they have discovered not just a new species or genus, but a potentially large and novel group of microorganisms.

...When asked why these apparently widespread algae had not been detected sooner, Sudek speculates that it may in part be due to their size. “They are too small to be noticed by people who study bigger algae such as diatoms, yet they may be filtered out by researchers who study the really small algae, known as picoplankton.”

Sudek says, “The rappemonads are just one of many microbes that we know nothing about—this makes it an exciting field in which to work.” _MBARI

Humans are not even close to getting an accurate species count for either land or sea.

Human science is ignorant about a lot of things in the natural world. It is safe to say that there are more things that science does not know about the world, than things it does know. Science is ignorant, for example, of how microbes are able to survive in so many extreme environments. Science understands very little so far about genetics and epigenetics. Science does not even understand why plants are shifting their areas of growth downhill, when IPCC climate scientists have been declaring categorically that a warming Earth would force plants to retreat uphill.

We are living in a much stranger and more wonderful world than science so far can understand. How much better it would be for us to separate science from politics, so that we could understand these mysteries more clearly.

Not Cold Fusion! Low Energy Nuclear Reactions

"Cold fusion" and Blacklight Power have been two of the less reputable approaches to generating energy. Cloaked in mystery and proprietary methods and materials, to outsiders both approaches seem custom-made for investment scamming. And yet neither approach seems likely to go away soon. In fact, a whole new upswell of interest in unconventional energy sources has been pouring out of Italy over the past week.

First of all, "cold fusion" is not a good description for what Rossi and Focardi seem to be doing.

Whatever the LENRs that are responsible for the device’s heat output, nickel-hydrogen reactions are not fusion, so this has nothing to do with the idea of “cold fusion.”

Researcher Jacques Dufour, retired from Shell and now a contractor with the French Laboratoire Des Sciences Nucléaires (CNAM), has speculated on neutron or proton capture on nickel to explain the mechanism. Unfortunately, proton capture requires astronomical forces to overcome the Coulomb barrier and is effectively invoking “cold fusion.”

Neutron capture, on the other hand, is different and theoretically feasible. In his conclusion, Dufour has cited the Widom-Larsen theory, published in the mainstream press by the European Physics Journal C, Pramana, and the American Chemical Society. The theory has also been cited by NASA, Johns Hopkins University and the Institute of Science in Society. (See New Energy Times Widom-Larsen Theory Portal for papers and references.)

“Strong nuclear signatures are expected from the Rossi energy amplifier,” Dufour writes. “It is of interest to note that in [Widom Larsen 'Theoretical Standard Model Rates of Proton to Neutron Conversions Near Metallic Hydride Surfaces'] a mechanism is proposed that strongly suppresses the gamma emission during the run (it is the same mechanism that creates very low energy neutrons, subsequently captured by the nickel).” _NewEnergyTimes

Neutron capture would describe a form of "transmutation." Rossi and Focardi are claiming that their energy-generating device involves the transmutation of nickel to copper. They are not claiming any form of fusion.

Still, a lot of people don't want to let go of the "cold fusion" idea, but if the mechanism is proven to generate as much excess heat as is claimed -- an energy gain of over 20 to 1 -- successful developers should be allowed to call it whatever they wish. More:

...while mainstream science spurns cold fusion vehemently, a maverick minority has been pursuing it with just as much passion; holding international conferences, publishing papers in their margin journals, and comparing notes.

And they don't like calling it "cold fusion," both because of the stigma attached to that phrase, as well as the inaccuracy of the name from a strict interpretation point of view. It's most often called a "Low Energy Nuclear Reaction" or LENR.

With Andrea Rossi and Sergio Focardi announcing in a press conference and demonstration last Friday that they had a device that produces 10 kilowatts of energy (enough to power five homes), and that they were now going into production with the patented technology; you can imagine that the LENR community has been abuzz with interest about this amazing disclosure. Though there has been plenty of skepticism, the general tone seems to be increasingly positive, as can be seen in the excerpts below.

Three of the premier media sources in that arena are Jed Rothwell's LENR-CANR.org, Steven Krivit's New Energy Times, and Infinite Energy. A sampling of they're take on this is represented here. There are other players in the cold fusion journalistic world as well, including those that cater to non-English-speaking audiences. _Pure Energy Systems News

Speculations about possible similarities between Rossi/Focardi and Blacklight Power:

Rossi received a patent, but he says that it does not contain proprietary information on the catalysts used in the device and the special processes utilized to prepare the powdered nickel. Speculation on the internet continues as to what these catalysts may be and what special processes may be utilized. One possibility that has been suggested is that sodium hydride (NaH) may be mixed in with the nano sized nickel powder. The hypothesis is that the NaH when heated would release hydrogen that would interact with the nickel powder. After this occurs the cell would be allowed to cool slightly (perhaps the need for a controllable input) to regenerate the NaH which would absorb hydrogen. Then the cycle would begin once again.

Such a cycle would be similar to some of the experiments performed by Black Light Power. Additional ideas include special methods to "clean" the nickel powder of impurities, a method that embeds the nickel powder in a ceramic that may act like a catalyst, and other methods.

It has been suggested on some internet forums that due to the fact that his patent is absent of such important information, it may not be enforceable and this may partially explain his need for total secrecy about these special processes and methods.

These emerging bits of information, technical details, interviews, and accounts of the demonstration are making the argument in favor of this technology being legitimate more compelling. As the days progress we urge you to follow this story closely. _PESN

Brian Wang has been following this story closely
Extensive (148 pp) PDF description of low energy nuclear reactions (h/t NextBigFuture)

When confronted with claims such as come from Blacklight Power or Focardi/Rossi, one must remain skeptical. And yet it is important to attempt to follow research progress and commentary as provided by objective-but-interested persons familiar with the basic theories involved.

Clean and abundant resources of energy will be discovered and commercially developed, in time. But modern western societies are in the unfortunate position of having their energy supplies unnecessarily constricted by political leaders, for ideological reasons masquerading as science. The effect of such policies include economic stagnation and a generalised "societal malaise" and an absence of a positive sense of future. These problems tend to feed upon each other and escalate in severity over time -- particularly when political leaders are corrupt and waste vast public resources -- both present and future -- merely to remain in power.

The bottom line is that when claims sound exaggerated, they usually are. It is best not to get one's hopes up prematurely. Be skeptical, but check in on progress from time to time, just in case something important is actually happening.

PESWiki page on Focardi/Rossi

New Energy Times blog

Low Energy Nuclear Reactions News

"Journal of Nuclear Physics" blog a "peer reviewed blog" run by Rossi

None of the sources listed above represent the physics mainstream, but if you read through the 148 pp PDF introduction on low energy nuclear reactions from New Energy Times, you should have an idea what questions to ask, what to look for, and what may be going on.

Al Fin energy analysts recommend not counting on this development to provide appreciable power supplies for a number of decades at least. But they admit they are slowly becoming addicted to speculating on such unconventional physical mechanisms as a diversion.

Undersea Nuclear Reactors to Power Undersea Cities?

DCNS, the French state-controlled naval company, said it will work in partnership with French companies Areva, EDF, and the French Atomic Energy Commission to build small- and medium-sized underwater reactors to provide electricity to consumers....Radio France Internationale reported Wednesday.

The company said its Flexblue project, expected to enter the building phase in 2013, is in response to global energy challenges and renewed interest in nuclear power. _UPI

Video h/t NextBigFuture
Small, portable nuclear reactors that are made for placement under the sea, could be used for many porpoises purposes. Besides running power cables to land to serve terrestrial customers, such undersea reactors could also serve floating installations and seafloor industries -- even undersea cities.

Akin to the submarines that DCNS has been making for the French navy for 40 years, Flexblue is a cylindrical unit 100 metres in length and 12 to 15 metres in diameter. Inside would be a small nuclear power reactor and well as steam generators, turbines and a generator to produce 50 to 250 MWe.

The vision is for such a unit to be installed on the seabed under 60 to 100 metres of water, several kilometres from a centre of power demand such as a city, industrial base or remote community which it would serve via underwater cables.

A video released today depicts the unit's deployment under naval guard. It is transported to sea on a heavy lift ship which lowers itself to allow Flexblue to maneuvre under its own power. Descent occurs under the watch of divers before a cutaway view reveals four stories of plant within the hull. The structure is then covered by a net and power is transmitted by cable to shore. _WorldNuclearNews_via_NextBigFuture

WNN
Brazil is already planning for "undersea cities" as replacements for deep ocean offshore oil rigs:

The plan is to construct 'cities’ more than 2,000 metres under water, containing machines, giant pieces of equipment and robots that could inspect the systems being used to extract millions of barrels of oil. Many operations would be fully automated while others would be controlled by humans at a distance.

“Our target is that we won’t need platforms in ten years from now,” said Carlos Tadeu Fraga, executive manager of the Petrobras Research Centre.

Petrobras already owns virtual reality laboratories where engineers can inspect 3D images of oil fields. But now they want to take a further technological leap by installing floating rig equipment on the sea bed.

The machinery under the sea would be capable of separating oil, gas, water and sand, compressing substances and generating enough energy to keep the operation functioning.

As deep sea mineral mining and deep sea science and exploration joins deep sea oil & gas drilling, the need for self-powered seafloor installations will grow in urgency. Sealed nuclear reactors that can run between 20 and 50 years on a single fueling will provide the necessary energy security for such installations.

A few years ago, the Estonian Maritime Academy proposed the development and installation of a subsea nuclear reactor off the Estonian coast in the Baltic Sea, for provision of basic power to the country. US naval submarines have traversed the world's oceans for several decades, powered safely and reliably by small nuclear reactors, so the concept of undersea reactors is well proven.

The idea of nuclear powered undersea cities may seem like the stuff of science fiction, but show me a better way to power a post-apocalyptic undersea civilisation. And what better place to survive the great lefty-Luddite environmentalist-engineered dieoff of humans on the surface? Abundant electricity allows for producing freshwater via desalination, oxygen for breathing via electrolytic splitting of water, hydrogen for fuel cells and chemical processes, etc. Nuclear reactors produce plenty of heat, so there would be no reason to be cold, regardless of outside sea temperatures.

Last but not least, plentiful small modular nuclear reactors -- both on land and sea -- should put a quick end to all of the EROEI nonsense one hears batted around at peak energy religious websites. ;-)

Never Bring a Lap Dog to a Grizzly Fight

BigJournalism
The ruling classes in both the US Democrat and US Republican parties want Sarah Palin to just go away -- disappear! The threadworn media and ruling punditry are pulling out all the stops to make Palin seem like a "has-been," yesterday's news. At least one thing is wrong with that approach -- It won't work.

The appeal of Palin is illuminated by many of the images/perceptions of both her and President Obama. Palin the badass hunts, fishes, climbs mountains, shoots caribou, rides in small planes often; the Democrats are represented by Obama, a man who flinches while watching a judo exhibition and wears a safety helmet for a leisurely bike ride. Fair or not, this perception exists. Palin is Theodore Roosevelt in a size 6 suit, American flag pin, and some kick ass black leather boots, Obama is an academic who looks uncomfortable in jeans, throws like a girl, and can’t name his alleged baseball heroes from childhood. _BigJournalism

She is...a highly accomplished woman, what in an earlier age would have been called a feminist pioneer: the first female governor of the malest state in the country, the first woman on the presidential ticket of the party on the male side of the "gender gap." Having left politics, whether temporarily or permanently, she has established herself as one of the most consequential voices in the political media.

They say she is uneducated. What they mean is that her education is not elite--not Harvard or Yale, or even Michigan or UCLA. They resent her because, in their view, she has risen above her station. _WallStreetJournal

But because she has risen above her station to confront far more powerful ruling interessts, she is becoming a hero to the common person. You know the common person -- the one who is never polled about his presidential preferences?

The popular hatred of a self-described elite culture toward Sarah Palin is almost inexplicable — whether expressed in Andrew Sullivan’s unhinged efforts to suggest Palin faked her fifth pregnancy, or David Letterman’s slur that she seemed a “slutty flight attendant” and her 14-year-old daughter “was knocked up by Alex Rodriguez,” or CNN guest host Kathy Griffin’s crudity that her next target was the teenaged Palin daughter: “But I think it’s Willow’s year to go down.” _VDH

The common people who live in flyover country observe how the ruling classes treat Sarah, whom they consider one of their own. They watch and they remember.

Said Palin: "It isn't about me personally, but it is about the message. I know that a lot on the left hate my message, and they will do all that they can to stop me because they don't like the message. They'll do what they can to destroy the message and the messenger."

[Palin] added: "I am not ready to make an announcement about what my political future is going to be. But I will tell you ... I am not going to sit down. I am not going to shut up." _PoliticalWire

I tend to believe her when she says things like that.

The ruling classes in the US have generated a convincing mirage of invincibility. It requires every hack journalist, quasi-writer, media producer, and pseudo-intellectual that your tax dollars can buy, under the direction of the puppetmasters of public opinion. But just how well can that mirage stand up against a true popular revolt? We may find out.

Re-published from abu al-fin

More 22Jan11: In a new development, the united federation of lap dogs is attempting to organise a news and commentary blackout on all things related to Palin. Shades of 1984-style revisionism. This might actually start getting interesting, as the lap dogs attempt to assert control over the public information sphere in the age of the new media.

Potemkin China, Empty Skyscrapers, Cargo Cult Cultures

Chinese government officials believe high-rises "show their progress in terms of urbanization and modernism," spur wider development by boosting investor confidence, and symbolize "a city's desire to become modern and international," says Chiow, a Chinese-American based in China for the past 15 years. _USAToday_via_ImpactLab

Lawrence showed that in almost all cases the initiation of construction of a new record-breaking skyscraper preceded major financial corrections and turmoil in economic institutions. Generally, the skyscraper project is announced and construction is begun during the late phase of the boom in the business cycle; when the economy is growing and unemployment is low. This is then followed by a sharp downturn in financial markets, economic recession or depression, and significant increases in unemployment. The skyscraper is then completed during the early phase of the economic correction, unless that correction was revealed early enough to delay or scrap plans for construction. For example, the Chrysler Building in New York was conceived and designed in 1928 and the groundbreaking ceremony was conducted on September 19, 1928. "Black Tuesday" occurred on October 29, 1929, marking the beginning of the Great Depression. Opening ceremonies for the Chrysler Building occurred on May 28, 1930, making it the tallest building in the world. _Mises

Table 1: World's Tallest Buildings

Completed	Building	Location	Height	Stories	Economic Crisis
1908	Singer	New York	612 ft.	48	Panic of 1907
1909	Metropolitan Life	New York	700 ft.	50	Panic of 1907
1912	Woolworth	New York	792 ft.	57	——
1929	40 Wall Street	New York	927 ft.	71	Great Depression
1930	Chrysler	New York	1,046 ft.	77	Great Depression
1931	Empire State	New York	1,250 ft.	102	Great Depression
1972/73	World Trade Center	New York	1,368 ft.	110	1970s stagflation
1974	Sears Tower	Chicago	1,450 ft.	110	1970s stagflation
1997	Petronas Tower	Kuala Lumpur	1,483 ft.	88	East Asian
2012	Shanghai	Shanghai	1,509 ft.	94	China?

If large buildings are constructed due to high utilisation and strong demand for space, they can be very profitable over their lifetimes. But if a skyscraper is constructed as a symbol or monument to the "greatness of a nation's political structure," the building may remain the empty prayer of a cargo cult.

China is building 44% of the 50 skyscrapers to be completed worldwide in the next six years, increasing the number of skyscrapers in Chinese cities by over 50%, says Andrew Lawrence, an Asian property analyst at investment bank Barclays Capital.

China is already host to six of the 15 tallest, completed buildings in the world, according to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, at the Illinois Institute of Technology in Chicago.

..."The appetite in China for high-rises, in the last five years and the next five, is bigger than ever before in the history of building," says Silas Chiow, China director for Skidmore, Owings and Merrill, the U.S. architectural firm, founded in Chicago, responsible for the Burj Khalifa.

The firm is currently engaged in 50 China projects, including the tallest buildings in eight separate cities.

Chinese government officials believe high-rises "show their progress in terms of urbanization and modernism," spur wider development by boosting investor confidence, and symbolize "a city's desire to become modern and international," says Chiow, a Chinese-American based in China for the past 15 years. _USAToday_via_ImpactLab

China is already full of "ghost cities," "ghost housing projects," "ghost office complexes," and "ghost shopping malls."

There is no denying the huge number of people living in China -- many of whom could use better and larger living and working space. But the economic structure of Communist Chinese society is rife with the mal-allocation of resources and enterprise. Corruption permeates the culture, driving much of the "road to nowhere" construction frenzy. Too much of the GDP-inflating construction is of a shoddy nature -- certain to collapse far sooner than projected lifetimes suggest.

Will the "Skyscraper Index" prove prophetic for Potemkin China of the cargo cult, or will the middle kingdom defy the curse of the world's tallest buildings?

More on skyscraper index:
From Mises.org
From CNN here and here

China's empty skyscrapers and office buildings

Amazing satellite images of some of China's ghost cities

World's loneliest shopping mall

More: And just in case you are still thinking that China may be ready to lead the world, perhaps you should think again:

We hear constantly how China's economy has "leapfrogged" other nations and now ranks third in the world — still behind the U.S. — with a total GDP of $3.3 trillion. The truth is more complex.

China has 1.3 billion people. So you're spreading that economy among one-sixth of the world's humanity. As the chart shows, China's economy on a per-person basis — the real measure of success — doesn't even come close to ours. The average American produces over $42,000 a year in goods and services; the average Chinese produces $2,800. That's an enormous gap in productivity.

Moreover, in its recent rankings of economic freedom, the Heritage Foundation put China 135th out of 179 countries. The U.S., even with all its current problems, ranks ninth. Who's the leader?

Citizens in big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai live a privileged existence, well-documented by the Western media. Deep inside rural China, however, hundreds of millions live in near-absolute poverty. This isn't a country ready for global economic leadership.

China's economic success has been driven by mercantilist policy of beggaring its own people in the interest of building up massive trade surpluses. Its foreign currency holdings now total $2.9 trillion, and most of that is in U.S. Treasuries and other dollar-denominated assets. That's China's hole-card in talks with the U.S. _IBD

Microsoft's Bill Gates Jumps Into Oil Exploration; More Energy News

Bill Gates has read the tea leaves, and thinks that there is money in advanced oil exploration technologies.

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates is tossing his financial support behind a Houston company which hopes to utilize detailed analytics and measurement technologies to take some of the guesswork out of onshore oil and gas exploration. NEOS GeoSolutions -- whose investors include the legendary venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and investment bank Goldman Sachs -- today announced a $60 million investment from Gates and others.

The company touts itself as a "geosciences company where Silicon Valley meets the oil patch," and Gates' involvement certainly adds some big-name technology credentials to the mix.

According to the company's Web site, NEOS can can help oil, gas and mining companies more efficiently explore the Earth's subsurface.

We do this by integrating a broad range of geological and geophysical (G&G) data – including data available in the public domain, owned by our clients, or acquired using proprietary NEOS platforms – to produce a highly constrained 3D model of the subsurface. By applying the latest geostatistical techniques, we help our clients determine which portions of a basin might be the most prospective and, at the lease level, what areas are most likely to contain commercial quantities of hydrocarbons or minerals.

_TechFlash

Brazil's oil reserves may be set to double in extent:

Brazilian oil deposits below a layer of salt in the Atlantic Ocean hold at least 123 billion barrels of reserves, more than double government estimates, according to a university study by a former Petroleo Brasileiro SA geologist.

The research, which set out to show government figures were overly optimistic, found they underestimated the area’s potential, said Hernani Chaves, a professor at the Rio de Janeiro State University who worked at Petrobras for 35 years. The forecast, which the study puts at a 90 percent probability, compares with 50 billion barrels estimated by Brazil’s oil regulator, known as ANP.

“We started with a skeptical view and finished with bigger numbers,” _Bloomberg

Coal to rival oil in energy production by 2030

Green coal may come to India within 2 years

GE to assist Shenhua in providing clean coal technology to China

Renewables bubble bursting in Spain and France. German and Scandinavian power grid managers are not very happy about the renewables bubble either.

The world is floating in hydrocarbon energy resources. Humans in developed societies must choose between the lefty-Luddite dieoff.orgiast philosophy -- as promoted by Obama's merry band of energy starvationists -- or a cleaner and more abundant future of limitless resources released by the unbound human mind.

From an earlier article in Al Fin Energy

Obama, Like an Albatross, Hung 'Round the Nation's Neck

America is facing a significant restructuring, beginning with the state and municipal levels of government

Critical information about the image above and the muni and sovereign bond crunch

Will America choose a rational bankruptcy restructuring plan for the troubled states, or will Obama try to bail out his friends in public sector unions at the cost of the greater US economy?

Here is just one reason why American jobs are not coming back: weak demand. But there are many other important reasons -- including intentional job-killing and industry-killing energy starvation policies within the federal government. Oddly enough, almost all of the reasons for the endless recession center on Obama and his enablers.

The Obamacare scam that was forced through the Pelosi-Reid US Congress is a huge, job and business-killing monstrosity. But is Obama's "Net Neutrality" plan even more monstrous?

Around the world, America is perceived as weak under Obama. It is being called the post-American, Chinese century. But if the US can get the albatross off from around its neck, is it possible the US has a bit more life left in it?

Who could lead America out of the rapidly deepening pit that Obama is digging? There are no names mentioned as credible challengers to the albatross president. The only name that keeps being mentioned -- generally in terms of which leftist would like to kill her today -- is Sarah Palin. Just when you thought you'd heard the last of her, she keeps showing up.

America's ruling classes have built a byzantine edifice of state-sympathetic media -- in both the news and entertainment sectors. For three years, both media sectors have mercilessly and incessantly attacked anyone bold enough to criticise or contradict the albatross in chief. The media sectors have studiously avoided the glaring weaknesses and failures of Obama's policies, and have exaggerated the most insignificant successes into grand triumphs.

A lot of Americans have been stupid enough to fall for the agitprop. After all, average population IQ in the US is only 98 points. That means that about half of Americans have IQs below 98! A very scary thought, around voting time. Knowing that the average populution IQ of Mexico is 87 fails to provide reassurance for America's future ability to vote its way out of the quagmire of stagnant idiocracy.

Focus on the basic essentials for yourself, your families, your communities if you have them. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

What the Hell Is Going On With the Sun?

WattsUpWithThat?!?
About 2 years ago in comments at WUWT, Al Fin remarked to solar scientist Leif Svalgaard that it appeared that solar scientists did not know what the hell was going on with the sun. Leif took exception to the remark at the time. But subsequent events suggest that solar scientists do not indeed know what the hell the sun is up to. The GIF animation below from WUWT illustrates the changes in predictions over the last 3 years.

This will be at the level of the Maunder Minimum of 1675 -1715.
Previous NASA predictions below:
2010 October: Predicted peak 60-70
2009 May 29: predicted peak: 80-90 range
2009 Jan 5: predicted peak: 100-110 range
2008 Mar 28: predicted peak: 130-140 range

From the NASA page:

Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in June/July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall. _WUWT

Want to see something really scary? Check out Solar Cycle 24 PDF download from David Archibald

More 21Jan11: Here is information on a related topic -- the influence of cosmic rays on climate. Apparently cosmic rays may play a much larger role in climate swings than the IPCC is willing to admit. Which means that the sun would play a much larger role as well.

New Europe: Sexual Predators Groom Young Sex Slaves

One of the many disturbing side effects of the ongoing Islamic demographic incursion into Europe, is the tidal wave of rape and sexual predation that results. From Sweden to the UK, very young girls are falling victim to rape gangs and specialised gangs who lure young teens into sex slavery, using drugs and other lures.

...most cases of gang-led, on-street grooming [into sex slavery] that have come to light involve British Muslim offenders and young white girls.

Most disturbingly, the police say that these convictions form only a small
proportion of a ‘tidal wave’ of such crimes. Yet, until now, there has been a conspiracy of silence over this phenomenon.

...these ­particular gang members are overwhelmingly Muslim men. And the common ­characteristic is not ethnicity, but religion.

For these gang members select their victims from communities which they believe to be ‘unbelievers’ — non-Muslims whom they view with disdain and hostility.

You can see that this is not a racial but a religious animosity from the fact that, while the vast majority of the girls who are targeted are white, the victims include Sikhs and Hindus, too. _DailyMail

Recent teen girl victims of a sex-slave gang that was successfully prosecuted, are being threatened with retribution from gang members.

...the girls, whose evidence nailed the gang from Derby, have been told that they will be targeted again.

A mother of one victim, who tried to kill herself after being drugged and raped by the mob, told the Daily Star: “All the girls who gave evidence are scared to death.

“They have been warned as soon as this lot get out they will return to ‘do them all again’. “All these girls are vulnerable and terrified.”

The gang’s ringleaders, Abid Saddique and Mohammed Liaqat, both 28, were last week jailed for a total of 19 years. Seven other members of their gang were earlier jailed for 22 years in total.

But the mum said: “The sentences they got were a joke. They should have been banged up for life, but some will be out in a few months and back on the streets.” _DailyStar

This unfortunate side effect of "culture clash" is fairly widespread, although there is something of a government blackout on information exposing these gangs.

NINE Asian men have been quizzed by police over claims they groomed white teenage girls as sex slaves, it emerged yesterday.


The suspects were held in a series of swoops after 14 girls, some as young as 13, said they were lured off the streets and plied with drink and drugs before being taken to homes for sex.

Some were also allegedly forced into prostitution.

The nine suspects, aged between 20 and 40, were arrested on suspicion of rape, inciting child prostitution, sexual activity with a child under 16 and allowing a premises to be used for prostitution.

The arrests took place last month and the men have been released on bail until March.

...Greater Manchester Police have refused to confirm the ethnicity of the suspects saying it was “not relevant” to the alleged crimes. _Express

Chasing the Dream When Government Fails

Once the space-shuttle program ends this year, the only way to get people into orbit and to the International Space Station will be to buy seats on Russia's three-person Soyuz capsules. So NASA, through its Commercial Crew Development program, has given $50 million in grants to companies developing new spacecraft capable of carrying people and supplies into orbit and to the space station.

The recipient of the biggest chunk of this money was the Sierra Nevada Corporation, which received $20 million to develop the Dream Chaser. This spacecraft, the size of a business jet, will take cargo and up to eight people into low Earth orbit, where the space station is located, and then return and land on commercial airport runways. _TechnologyReview

SpaceDevAdvanced Dream Chaser
The NASA Space Shuttle program is reaching the end of its lifespan, and unless Americans want to keep hitching rides to orbit with the unpredictable Russians, an alternative path to space must be devised. NASA's pathetic $50 million Commercial Crew Development program is dwarfed by the agency's global warming budget -- and yet the pittance of an afterthought may prove helpful in seeding a private launch industry.

The "Dream Chaser" is a design that NASA reverse-engineered from the Soviet space program, while the Russians were busy reverse-engineering the NASA Space Shuttle.

In the 1970s, the Soviets tested a vehicle like it, known as the Bor-4. The crew of an Australian ship photographed it, and NASA used the image to reverse-engineer a similar craft. The resulting design, NASA's HL-20, underwent significant development and testing and was intended to be a lifeboat for astronauts aboard the space station. But the HL-20 program lapsed.

Six years ago, a small aerospace company that Sirangelo headed, called SpaceDev, licensed the design from NASA and began to modify it, for instance adding the hybrid motors. The motors burn an unusual fuel: a combination of recycled rubber and nitrous oxide. This has almost the same energy density as conventional fuel but can be burned in a more controlled way and thus might be safer, though only multiple flights can prove whether it is. Sirangelo compares the system to a burner on a gas stove that can be turned to a lower or higher flame. The same hybrid motor was used in SpaceShipOne, which won the X Prize in 2004, and will also be incorporated in Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, intended to fly tourists into suborbital space.

...Everything on the Dream Chaser except the initial launch booster and the fuel cartridges is designed to be reused. Still, turning a profit will require flying multiple Dream Chasers 50 to 100 times each, and Sirangelo admits that he doesn't know when that will occur. "We're entering an unknown world," he says. The company isn't disclosing exact figures, but Sierra Nevada, a profitable company founded in 1963, has invested tens of millions of dollars in the project—more than the company received from NASA this year. Sirangelo says Sierra Nevada plans to continue to invest own money in the project. "If we don't get to our milestones, we don't get paid," says Sirangelo. The company has applied for a second round of funding from NASA that will be given out later this year.

..."There is potential for the new vehicles to be safer than the space shuttle, but the only way you really know is by flying," says Pace. If the regulatory burden under which NASA labors were applied to commercial efforts to make crew vehicles, it would crush them—but what kind of compromise regulations will be written is still unclear. _TechnologyReview

Yes, it is most important to read all of the fine print. If the US government decides to crush private space enterprise, it can easily do so via "crushing" regulations, taxes, penalties, fines, licenses, and a multitude of other means that a legalistic bureaucracy tends to use to crowd out and destroy anyone outside the bureaucracy itself.

Smart people will devise workarounds, in order to get things done despite the blooming reign of idiocracy.

You're Going to Look Pretty Stupid When the World Ends

h/t Lubos

Apocalyptics who do not happen to be religious tend not to realise or believe that they fall into the category of apocalyptics at all. You might even call them apocalyptic deniers. Which highlights the fact that humans are not actually rational creatures. They all have religions, even if they are unwilling to call them by that name.

Life: An Ongoing Journey from Passage to Passage

Today...rites of passage are almost extinct. Boys [or girls] lack clear markers on their journey to becoming a man [or woman]. If you ask them when the transition occurs, you will get a variety of answers: “”When you get a car,” “When you graduate from college,” “When you get a real job,” “When you lose your virginity,” “When you get married, “When you have a kid,” and so on. The problem with many of these traditional rites of passage is that they have been put off further and further in a young man’s life. 50 years ago the average age an American man started a family was 22. Today, men [and women] .... are getting married and having kids later in life. With these traditional rites of passage increasingly being delayed, many men [and women] are left feeling stuck between [childhood] and [adulthood]. College? Fewer men are graduating. And many that do “boomerang” back home again, spending another few years figuring out what the next step in their life should be. As traditional rites of passage have become fuzzier, young men are plagued with a sense of being adrift. _ArtofManliness

Today's western young person is poorly prepared for the constant "testing" nature of reality. Sheltered and pampered from the adult world of responsibility throughout childhood and adolescence, modern children too often become lifelong adolescents of incompetence and indecision. Young Peter Pans and Cinderellas, forever looking and waiting for that ideal world to which they feel entitled.

The diagram above looks at "life events" and how a person might react to them. Things happen to people throughout life. How a person reacts to these "things" determines the path of the person's life. The same set of curves could also describe the repetitious "rites of passages" which mark a person's life as he either fails or succeeds in negotiating each transition. It is best to teach children to recognise these "tests of transition" very early in life, and how to successfully pass them.

Books have been written describing this dearth of modern rites of passage. Commercial enterprises have sprung up for youth and adults, in an attempt to fill the gap.

Science fiction fans will immediately understand the concept from reading books such as Alexei Panshin's "Rite of Passage" and many of the books by Robert Heinlein.

What Is a Rite of Passage

Sociologists have identified three phases that constitute a proper rite of passage: separation, transition, and re-incorporation.

Separation: During this phase an initiate is separated in some way from his former life. In the case of the Mandan tribe, the young man was isolated from the village in a hut for three days. In other tribes, boys’ heads were shaved and they were ritually bathed and/or tattooed. In a more modern example, when a man has just enlisted in the military, he is sent away to boot camp. His former possessions are put aside, his head is shaved, and he is given a uniform to wear. During the separation phase, part of the old self is extinguished as the initiate prepares to create a new identity.

Transition: During this phase, the initiate is between worlds-no longer part of his old life but not yet fully inducted into his new one. He is taught the knowledge needed to become a full-fledged member of that group. And he is called upon to pass tests that show he is ready for the leap. In tribal societies, the elders would impart to the initiate what it meant to be a man and how the boy was to conduct himself once he had become one. The initiate would then participate in ritual ceremonies which often involved pain and endurance. In the case of the new soldier, he is yelled at, prodded, exercised, and disciplined to prepare him to receive a rank and title.

Re-incorporation. In this phase, the initiate, having passed the tests necessary and proving himself worthy, is re-introduced into his community, which recognizes and honors his new status within the group. For tribal societies, this meant a village-wide feast and celebration. The boy would now be recognized by all tribe members as a man and allowed to participate in the activities and responsibilities that status conferred. For the soldier, his boot camp experience would come to an end and both his superiors and his family would join in a ceremony to recognize his new status as a full-fledged member of the military. _ArtofManliness

Military service still serves as a distinctive and frequently successful rite of passage for some young people. Membership in the military definitely incorporates the three phases -- separation, transition, and re-incorporation -- listed above. But those classical phases of rites of passage are most distinct and recognisable for the transition from childhood to adulthood.

Other, less obvious transitions may passs through the phases so quickly or subtly that they are not recognised for passage rites. Nevertheless, like a whitewater journey, each person's life is a succession of rapids, calm, waterfalls, etc occurring in all kinds of weather and at all levels of water flow.

The long transition from the incompetence of infancy to the competence of a skilled, well-rounded, and confident adulthood, should provide many opportunities for acquiring personal competence and for discovering one's own pace and direction of discovery and mastery over challenges. If a society -- such as ours -- is profoundly neglectful and negligent in providing for these successive rites and opportunities for competency acquisition, it will be rewarded with lifelong adolescents who lack both competency and confidence.

Although it may never be too late to have a happy childhood, it may be too late to learn competencies at your peak learning window. That is a pity, but only one of many, and not to be cried over. The lesson to be learned from it is to not repeat the same mistake for your students, children, or grandchildren.

If you are 30 or 40 years old and still trying to find your "vision quest" or "rite of passage", you have been ill treated by well-meaning parents and society. Do what you can to make up for it in yourself, but try not to perpetuate the crime on future generations.

Baby birds have to first crack their way out of their hard shells. Then they have to learn to leave the nest without killing themselves. They have to learn to fly, feed, survive. Then they must find mates, raise their young, migrate with the seasons, over and over again.

Modern humans of affluent societies wish to spare their young from all of those difficulties. That is the worst thing they could do. Modern college professors too often tell students what to think rather than preparing them to competently mind-wrestle all comers. Such indoctrination -- a hallmark of a modern university education -- is likewise the worst possible approach. And so it goes, as government takes the place of parents and schools, creating an artificial layer of regulation and "protection" around the citizen.

As new generations of incompetents work their way further into the control rooms of government and society, expect things to get harder for almost everyone. These are the times when you want maximum competence for yourself and those around you.

Thilo Sarrazin Still Shaking the Continent: 1.2 Million and Counting!

German banker and politician Thilo Sarrazin's book about German immigration policy continues to shake Europe to its foundations. An early offensive by German politicians against Sarrazin failed to stop Sarrazin or shut down book sales. The book continues near the top of best-seller lists in Europe, after 1.2 million books sold and counting . . . It looks as if Sarrazin has triggered a debate which politically correct authorities are unable to shut down.

Sarrazin’s book is no tract. It is a subtle, well-documented, almost literary argument about the failings of the German welfare state by a top-rank labour economist. Inevitably, though, it is also an attack on the political correctness that has constrained German political discourse for decades. Half a century ago Germany’s citizens — with good reason — came to a consensus that they could not soon afford another freewheeling Teutonic discussion on the matter of, let’s say, Lebensraum.

Today, though, this limited scope for public discussion stymies the tiniest steps to fix problems that have been obvious in other countries for decades. You cannot say that Germany’s asylum policy draws idlers as well as refugees. You cannot say, as Sarrazin discovered during his time as a ‘finance senator’ in Berlin a few years ago, that welfare payments are more than sufficient to feed and shelter all but the most extravagant poor person, and ought to be reduced. Sarrazin apparently came to believe his country was dying of its etiquette, and spoke up. ‘I don’t have to respect a person who lives off the state while expressing contempt for it,’ he said in 2009, ‘who doesn’t plan for the education of his children in a rational way, and is constantly producing new little headscarf girls.’

Rough stuff, but really there is little in Deutschland schafft sich ab that has not been said at a respectable free-market think tank some time in the last quarter-century. Two things, though, are new about this book. First, Sarrazin is more comprehensive than his predecessors. Much like the German constitution, the German welfare state is elaborate and complicated by design. So this book is an interconnected discussion, at a very high level of sophistication, of German anti-poverty policy (which has promoted the growth of an underclass), the globalised labour market, the modern education system, the (small) successes and (big) failures of the Turkish guest-worker programme, and the predicament of Germany’s low birthrate.

Second, Sarrazin is not a conservative but a Social Democrat who believes in ‘emancipation through education, organisation and dogged, persistent efforts at reform’. Sarrazin considers the welfare state a mismanaged triumph, not, like most Anglo-Saxon conservatives, a sentimental mistake. Where a conservative would quote De Maistre, he quotes the Indian Nobel Prize-winner and theorist of justice Amartya Sen. Mr Sarrazin does occasionally say hurtful things (in a discussion of my own writing on Muslim immigration to Europe, for instance, he wrongly describes me as British), but never with any glee. This is the work of a social scientist, who happily deploys page after page of statistics and tables that assume you know the difference between Hartz IV and Arbeitslosengeld II unemployment payments, or between Kindergeld and Elterngeld.

‘Poverty’, Sarrazin shows, is a powerful tool of governmental mobilisation even though it does not, strictly speaking, exist. Today’s ‘poverty line’ measures inequality, not want. It is set at 60 per cent of average income — higher than the German average income in the 1970s. If everyone in Germany saw his income quadruple tomorrow, the poverty rate would not budge. And the payments to the poor create incentives for childbearing and against work. _More at Spectator

Sarrazin commits the sin of urging Germany's wealthier and more intelligent citizens to have more children. Foolhardy man! By giving such common sense advice, he offends not only the dieoff.org leftists, but the feminists as well. It's a wonder the man is still walking around in public on two legs.

Sarrazin also offends the growing armies of "diversity opportunists" -- bureaucrats and consultants intent on hamstringing entire societies with their own demented handicapping philosophy of impoverished monoculturalism (which they falsely call "multiculturalism").

So we either “celebrate” diversity, or get put out of business; but if something has to be enforced by law, then it can’t really be called a celebration as such. Is it any wonder people across Europe are rejecting “diversity”, if it comes at the cost of freedom, and requires a standing army of Gutmenschen to govern our lives? And they are rejecting it. As Caldwell writes: “A decade or so from now, Germans will be surprised that they ever looked on Sarrazin’s observations as anything but common sense. And that will be true whether they act on them or not.” _Telegraph

That would be an optimistic way of looking at it. I mean, the part where he assumes that there will be any Germans left in a decade or so . . . ;-)

Of course, the US under Obama has accelerated the schedule for its own train wreck along the same lines. Fortunately for the US, most of its third world immigrants merely want opportunities to succeed -- not opportunities to blow up their host country.

Tiger Mothers Never Retreat, They Lure You In

In the week since The Wall Street Journal published an excerpt of the new book by Amy Chua, a Yale law professor, under the headline “Why Chinese Mothers Are Superior,” Ms. Chua has received death threats, she says, and “hundreds, hundreds” of e-mails...many called Ms. Chua a “monster” or “nuts”... _NYTimes

NYTimes
There may well have been days, recently, when Amy Chua wonders if people are mistaking her for Sarah Palin -- with all the death threats and personal animosity being thrown her way. When bold and independent women in public life occasionally dare to let down their guard, they are sometimes punished for it.

“It’s been a little surprising, and a little bit intense, definitely,” Ms. Chua said in a phone interview on Thursday, between what she called a “24/7” effort to “clarify some misunderstandings.” Her narration, she said, was meant to be ironic and self-mocking — “I find it very funny, almost obtuse.”

...Her real crime, she said, may have been telling the truth. “I sort of feel like people are not that honest about their own parenting,” she said. “Take any teenage household, tell me there is not yelling and conflict.”

Ms. Chua is one half of the kind of Asian-Jewish academic power couple that, as she notes, populates many university towns. Her husband is Jed Rubenfeld, also a Yale law professor, and the author of two successful mystery novels. Ms. Chua, herself the author of two previous books, was reported to have received an advance in the high six figures for “Tiger Mother.”

...“I’ve been forced to answer questions about a book I didn’t write,” she said. “It’s not saying what people should do, it’s saying, ‘Here’s what I did, and boy did I learn a lesson.’ ” All this is captured, she said, in the book’s three-paragraph subtitle, which concludes with the words, “and how I was humbled by a thirteen-year-old.”

...She was determined to raise her daughters the way she and her three sisters had been raised — which, she said, left them adoring their parents. By her account, her elder daughter, Sophia, complied, excelled and played piano at Carnegie Hall. But the younger, Lulu, rebelled. At the turning point of the memoir, Lulu, then 13, begins smashing glasses in a Moscow restaurant and yelling at her mother, “I HATE my life, I HATE you.”

Ms. Chua’s husband appears only peripherally in “Tiger Mother” — though there is one battle in which she lashes out at him after he worries that she is pushing their daughters to the point that there is “no breathing room” in their home.

“All you do is think about writing your own books and your own future,” she says to him. “What dreams do you have for Sophia or for Lulu? Do you ever think about that? What dreams do you have for Coco?” He bursts out laughing — Coco is their dog.

She concludes, “I didn’t understand what was so funny, but I was glad our fight was over.” _NYT

Yes. I, too, wonder what dreams Jed has for Coco. ;-) Honestly, if readers are unable to detect the irony and self-deprecating humour in Chua's writing, perhaps they should stick to comic books and romances.

East Asians are not the only ones who raise their children in a very strict manner. It is quite likely that most children of strict and disciplined upbringings turned out quite well -- as long as love was prominently displayed in the home as well. Children need discipline and boundaries. But the discipline should become internalised and the boundaries should be expandable with increasing maturity.

Modern western parents are negligent, as a rule, in terms of instilling practical competencies in their children. Criminally so, in many cases. And yet it may be possible for badly raised children to salvage something of their lives, in spite of their parents' neglect or over-pampering. We hope so.

Chua's book -- and the outrage it has caused -- has certainly been a revelation. Not an altogether reassuring one. Or, perhaps, more of a reminder than a revelation. Sometimes one likes to forget how screwed up his culture has become.

Small Modular Reactors Set to Thrive in Post-Obama Age

A global race is under way to develop small-reactor designs, says Paul Genoa of the Nuclear Energy Institute, an industry body in Washington, DC. He estimates that more than 20 countries have expressed serious interest in buying mini-reactors.

At least eight different approaches are being developed, mainly in America and Asia, by an army of 3,000 nuclear engineers, according to Ron Moleschi of SNC-Lavalin Nuclear, an engineering firm based in Montreal. Regulatory and licensing procedures are lengthy, so little will be built until around 2017, he says. But after that the industry is expected to take off. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that by 2030 at least 40 (and possibly more than 90) small reactors will be in operation. It reckons that more than half of the countries that will build nuclear plants in coming years will plump for these smaller, simpler designs. _Economist

Economist
Obama's Nuclear Regulatory Commission is dragging its feet on nuclear energy -- particularly on new safer, more economical reactor designs such as small modular reactors (SMRs). But Obama's agenda of energy starvation, and its job-killing, industry-killing effects are living on borrowed time. In the real world, all forms of currently suppressed energy -- including small modular nuclear reactors -- will find a way.

Upcoming conferences on Small Modular Reactors:

19-20 April 2011 Conference in Columbia, SC, on Small Modular Reactors:

The conference is expected to draw about 120 people from about 60 companies and agencies around the world, such as China National Nuclear Corp., the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iraq Energy Institute. Also, industry heavyweights like Westinghouse, AREVA and GE have signed up, along with the U.S. Department of Energy, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Army and utilities across the nation.

The conference, scheduled to be held April 19-20 at the Marriott Hotel on Main Street, is sponsored by SCE&G and organized by the Carolinas’ Nuclear Cluster and Nuclear Energy Insider _thestate

SMR Conference 23-24 May 2011 Washington, DC...._ Call for abstracts

Small modular reactors can be built more quickly, safely, and cheaply in a controlled factory environment. They can then be shipped to the site for a quick and inexpensive installation -- pre-loaded with fuel and ready to hook up.

The US Navy has been powering ships safely using small nuclear reactors for many decades. One of the most likely future suppliers of SMRs to the civilian market -- Babcock and Wilcox -- just received a new $2 billion award for Naval Nuclear Reactor Components.

But then, the US military has to actually accomplish something -- unlike the civil portion of the US government which generally does no more than consume scarce resources which would be put to better use elsewhere.

Short Primer on Liquid Fuel Nuclear Reactors

EnergyfromThorium
Adapted from an earlier article at Al Fin Energy

Are We In A Commodities Bubble?

Minyanville

Are commodity prices already overdone? Like everything else, it depends. Each commodity has its own story -- amply demonstrated by the chart above. _Minyanville

Read the rest of the article linked above to get a better idea of what you may have to do to free yourself from the false euphoria that comes from breathing too much commodity laughing gas.
The author recommends a "bottom-up" approach. Look at the news and fundamentals for each commodity, using all of the information resources available. Then do your own calculations as to whether current or futures prices are inflated or undervalued.

An alternative approach is to take a "top-down" viewpoint. What are the realities and trends of the overall markets, which tend to drive demand for commodities?

Take the US: The stock market has been doing better, and recent retail sales seem to have rebounded somewhat from earlier in the current and ongoing downturn. The nominal "unemployment rate" has been relatively stable for years, albeit at a higher-than-comfortable level of unemployment. The nominal "inflation rate" has stayed relatively low, and interest rates should be encouraging more economic expansion.

But the US housing market continues to sink ever lower, with sky-high foreclosures continuing. Homes are traditional stores of value in the US, as well as one of many leading economic indicators. And "real employment" is actually getting worse, as more and more people drop out of the job market in discouragement. The true growth enterprise in the US under Mr. Obama is the federal government.

Underlying everything else is the spectre of inflation, and how many parts of the economy can be blown apart by an intentional inflationary policy.

Why does inflation serve the largest banks and corporations disproportionately while hurting the average working citizen?

Greater Inflation is desired because the largest banks still hold massive amounts of "bad" loans on their books that simply cannot be justified under any scenario except elevated housing prices. Greater inflation is desired by large multinational businesses so that they may increase current pricing levels and continue to grow profitability for shareholders. Greater inflation is sought so that the Fed can regain credibility and maintain the illusion of being in control of the markets. Inflation in basic necessities such as food, energy, health care and educational expenses have the potential to drain the resources of anyone below the upper strata of society. Making life harder for those on the margin to protect those at the top is not only bad economic policy, it's immoral.

What might the potential long term effects of a near zero Fed funds rate be?

The longer the Fed keeps rates at zero, the longer the banks have to develop strategies for operating in a "risk" free capital environment. Given past history, it's only a matter of time (when, not if) until the banks blow the economy up yet again. Low rates directly benefit the banks and large corporate sectors of the economy. They can borrow at historic low rates whereas the average citizen has no capability of obtaining such funding. While mortgage rates have moved to levels we have not seen in a decades, the corresponding tightening in loan qualification standards means that many cannot take advantage of them. Profits to the largest businesses and no tangible benefit to the American citizen - can you see a pattern developing? _SeekingAlpha

Looking at it that way, the ongoing runup in commodities prices take on a whole new meaning.

Central bank-generated inflationary bubbles are a whole different pickle than investor euphoria-driven bubbles. If the bubble we see developing is coming from the US central bank, it is an ominous sign of an out-of-control economy in the making. As if the government debt build-up was not bad enough, the Fed under Obama appears to be intentionally filling the entire economy with noxious gases.

Time for average people to focus on issues of essential function and enduring value. The US dollar does not have enduring value, and serves an essential function in fewer and fewer locations around the world. The US government has fallen under the control of persons who are in over their heads, treading water, flailing for their lives.

But their flailings have a definite trending, which appear to benefit a small, select group of insiders, at the expense of the taxpayers and citizens at large.

More interesting thoughts on a US Fed-induced bubble from Zero Hedge and Powerline

On Not Knowing What the Frack You are Talking About

Those of us who wish to break through to the next level of human existence, are going to have to learn to love uncertainty (via Bishop Hill). The science correspondent of The Guardian looks at some answers to the latest Edge question:

Carlo Rovelli, a physicist at the University of Aix-Marseille, emphasised the uselessness of certainty. He said that the idea of something being "scientifically proven" was practically an oxymoron and that the very foundation of science is to keep the door open to doubt.

"A good scientist is never 'certain'. Lack of certainty is precisely what makes conclusions more reliable than the conclusions of those who are certain: because the good scientist will be ready to shift to a different point of view if better elements of evidence, or novel arguments emerge. Therefore certainty is not only something of no use, but is in fact damaging, if we value reliability."

...Neil Gershenfeld, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Centre for Bits and Atoms wants everyone to know that "truth" is just a model. "The most common misunderstanding about science is that scientists seek and find truth. They don't – they make and test models," he said.

"Building models is very different from proclaiming truths. It's a never-ending process of discovery and refinement, not a war to win or destination to reach. Uncertainty is intrinsic to the process of finding out what you don't know, not a weakness to avoid. Bugs are features – violations of expectations are opportunities to refine them. And decisions are made by evaluating what works better, not by invoking received wisdom." _Guardian_via_BishopHill

The mind naturally hates uncertainty. If we do not know what is to happen, we cannot plan for it, and are at the mercy of "the fates."

The basic idea is simple. It is that to perceive the world is to successfully predict our own sensory states. The brain uses stored knowledge about the structure of the world and the probabilities of one state or event following another to generate a prediction of what the current state is likely to be, given the previous one and this body of knowledge. Mismatches between the prediction and the received signal generate error signals that nuance the prediction or (in more extreme cases) drive learning and plasticity. _AndyClark

Of course it is one thing to embrace uncertainty and accept humility. It is quite another to pretend to embrace uncertainty, then to tell everyone to shut the fuck up because you understand what is going on better than anyone else does. That is what several of the commenters at the Edge site appeared to be doing.
True science does not attempt to limit what models can be tested by which experiment. True science does not limit the nature of models which can be entertained and played with. True science does not play down the massive uncertainty within its boundaries so as to influence public policy on a massive scale -- for its own financial benefit and increase in prestige.

This is what we are dealing with in modern climate science -- and in a wide range of other sciences which have attracted the attention of politically ambitious scientists, politicians, and bureaucratic administrators. The quest to build better models -- falsifiable models which can be ruthlessly tested by experiment -- is being hampered and biased by political and ideological concerns. Even at more "enlightened" websites such as Edge.org you can see the underlying corrupting influence of politics.

That is why science is escaping the bounds that "scientists", science bureaucrats, science journalists, science publishers, politicians, political lobbyists on scientific issues, and other supposed gatekeepers of science are trying to maintain. The tools of experimentation are escaping into the public domain, with all the attendant risks and opportunities which that entails.

Scientists are also politicians, at least within their own little realm. Some of them actually sell themselves to "the dark side" and attempt to practise politics on a grander scale. If a scientist lacks humility in his public pronouncements and policy recommendations, he is not practising true science, but is practising politics.

Until we can quantify the uncertainty in our statements and our predictions, we have little idea of their power or significance. So too in the public sphere. Public policy performed in the absence of understanding quantitative uncertainties, or even understanding the difficulty of obtaining reliable estimates of uncertainties usually means bad public policy. _LawrenceKrauss

All models are metaphors and all metaphors are man-made. The greatest danger in financial modeling and the modeling of all human activities is therefore the age-old sin of idolatry. Financial markets are alive but a metaphor is a limited human work of art, entrancing perhaps, but inanimate. To confuse the model with the world is to embrace a potential future disaster. All metaphors have their limits. _EmanuelDerman PDF

Emanuel Derman Map of Emotions PDF
Humans are not programmed for rationality, except insofar as finding the next meal, or a relatively warm, dry, and safe place to sleep are measures of rationality. The lofty world of grand scientific ideals and integrities is more of a convenient fiction to justify academic and research budgets. The reality is more one of roiling emotions and jostling egos of unbridled ambition and jealousy.

Politicians of all stripes want to project an image of invincibility and absolute certainty. Journalists, speechwriters, and public relations hacks assist them toward that end. Scientists -- by keeping their mouths shut about how little they themselves know -- also assist the politicians (at all levels) toward their petty, venal ends.

One of the happy exceptions among scientists is Freeman Dyson.

My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models. _Dyson

But if your paycheck depends upon wrangling a grant from a government that is down to writing IOUs, you want to project a degree of certainty and a crucial pivotal nature within your research, which you cannot actually know or prove. You probably don't even believe it yourself, deep down, but bills must be paid, kids must be raised, appearances must be kept up....

The enormous academic, political, and journalistic house of cards which exists to bamboozle the public into believing that the ruling and credentialed class knows what it is doing, cannot last forever. It is already crumbling about the edges and showing deepening cracks in its infrastructure.

What should you do about it? Learn to embrace skepticism toward the proclamations of would-be authority, and adopt a robust system of planning in your personal life. Things do not typically turn out the way we expect. Learn to deal with a healthy measure of uncertainty and unpredictability.

And keep your powder dry, you just may need to use it.

When La Nina Comes Callin': Long Range US Forecast

Accuweather
Long-range weather forecasting is still an experimental art form, but some US and UK practitioners are getting better at it (Not the UK Met). Here is what the long range gnomes at Accuweather have to say:

The current La Niña is still going strong and expected to persist through at least the spring. AccuWeather.com long range forecasters think it could even last well into the summer or early fall.

So what does that mean in terms of weather for the coming months? What can people expect for the rest of winter and the upcoming spring? Will there be a continuation of non-typical extremes like we've seen over the last few months?

What to Expect in Coming Months

In short, AccuWeather.com Expert Long Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok says that we can expect to see more of the non-typical La Niñna events in parts of the country in coming weeks.

For example, he expects colder-than-normal conditions to continue affecting the East through the end of January and possibly the first half of February. In contrast to December, which was coldest compared to normal in the Southeast, the upcoming cold in the East is expected to be most extreme in the Northeast.

A blast of cold air coming to the Northeast the weekend of Jan. 22-23 is forecast to be especially brutal. A healthy snowpack covering much of the East now will help make upcoming cold outbreaks even more intense.

...In the Southeast, Pastelok thinks the cold that continues in coming weeks will be significant enough to make temperatures for the entire winter average out below normal for much of the region. This would be an impressive feat, considering that La Niña winters in the Southeast are typically warmer than normal.

In general, Pastelok also expects a continuation of stormy weather from the Tennessee Valley into the mid-Atlantic for much of the rest of the season. Storms that track through this zone can vary between producing snow, ice and heavy rain.

The bitter cold destined for the East will first blast through the Midwest. So more extreme cold is in store for people across that region as well.

...The Southwest started this winter off with cool temperatures but has recently experienced warming. That warmth is starting to spread eastward into Texas, and Pastelok expects most of the interior Southwest and Texas to stay warmer much of the rest of the winter.

Above-normal precipitation is expected for the Northwest for the rest of the season with higher-than-normal snowfall in the interior. Temperatures should average below normal for the rest of the season. _Accuweather

More on strong La Nina from Wattsupwiththat?!?