World's Oceans, Coral Reefs, Feel Better After US Election

Al Fin recently attended a conference with representatives of all the world's oceans and seas, along with representatives from 600 of the world's largest coral reef formations, plankton communities, and kelp forests. After intensive discussions over the significance of the November 2010 elections in the US for the future of the world's oceans, and Al Fin's explanations of the ramifications of recent US elections for science and the oceans, the expressed conclusion of all attendees was one of massive relief.

Theoretical predictions indicate that coral calcification rates should decline as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations by as much as 40% by 2100. However, real-world observations indicate that elevated CO2 and elevated temperatures are having just the opposite effect. _ScienceandPublicPolicy

Of the four 'states' that CO2 can assume, carbondioxide CO2 is a mere 1%, bicarbonate HCO3 is 93% and carbonate CO3 8% . But the total amount of carbon dissolved in the oceans is just short of 40,000Gt (Pg) compared with less than 700Gt in the atmosphere. The sea is a massive carbon dioxide reservoir, in balance with an even more massive limestone reservoir of 40,000,000Gt carbon in marine sediments .

...It is thought that the carbondioxide in the sea exists in equilibrium with that of exposed rock and bottomsediment containing limestone CaCO3 (or sea shells for that matter). In other words, that the element calcium exists in equilibrium with CO3. But the concentration of Ca (411ppm) is 10.4 mmol/l and that of all CO2 species (90ppm) 2.05 mmol/l, of which CO3 is about 6%, thus 0.12 mmol/l. Thus the sea has a vast oversupply of calcium. It is difficult therefore to accept that decalcification could be a problem as CO3 increases. To the contrary, it should be of benefit to calcifying organisms. Thus the more CO2, the more limestone is deposited. This has also been borne out by measurements (Budyko 1977).

The bit missing at the beginning is that CO2 (atmosphere) <=> CO2 (sea water) or in other words, that the carbondioxide in the air is in balance with that in the surface water.

If the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere rises, then more of it will dissolve in the water, working all the way through the chemical reactions, to an increase in acidity and an increase in carbonate CO3. Scientists believe that the sea in pre-industrial times was 'saturated' relative to dissolved limestone, and that recent increases in CO2 have 'desaturated' the sea (beginning in the antarctic sea), with possible dire consequences for sea life. But we have observed that calcium skeletons dissolve back into what scientists call 'saturated' CO3. _SeaFriends

The oceans are not acid but alkaline, with an average pH of about 8.15 (0-7 being acid, 7-14 being alkaline). But they vary both in space and time, Arctic seas being less strongly alkaline than tropical, and some bays and reefs being actually acid because of underwater volcanic emissions. The dissolution of carbon dioxide in the oceans may lower the pH slightly to about 7.9 or 7.8 by the end of the century at the worst – still alkaline.

Environmentalists like to call this a 30% increase in acidity, because it sounds more scary than a 0.3 point (out of 14) decrease in alkalinity, but no matter. It is still well within the bounds of normal variation over space and time: the pH of the water intake at the Monterey aquarium varies by almost twice as much as this every month. The difference between the pH of the seas off Hawaii and Alaska is greater than this.

Enough numbers. Try chemistry. The scary reasoning rests on the argument that lower pH will mean less dissolved carbonate in the water. But a new paper from scientists in North Carolina proves what many scientists have long suspected, namely that corals and other species do not use carbonate as raw material to make their shells; they use bicarbonate. And dissolving carbon dioxide in water actually increases bicarbonate concentrations.

This may explain why study after study keeps finding that far from depressing growth rates of marine organisms, high but realistic levels of carbon dioxide either do not affect them or increase them. By far the most important calcifiers in the oceans are plankton called coccolithophores, which account for about a third of the total marine calcium carbonate manufacture. There is now strong evidence that coccolithophores are growing faster and larger as a result of human carbon dioxide emissions. Stands to reason if they use bicarbonate. _MattRidleyinTheTimes

The persistence of coral reefs through geologic time – when temperatures were as much as 10-15°C warmer than at present, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 2 to 7 times higher than they are currently – provides substantive evidence that these marine entities can successfully adapt to a dramatically changing global environment. Thus, the recent die-off of many corals cannot be due solely, or even mostly, to global warming or the modest rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the course of the Industrial Revolution. _CO2 Science

It is unusual for representatives from all the world's seas and oceans, plus the largest communities of corals and sea plants and plankton, to gather in one place at one time. But the recent distortions of ocean science by persons who should know better, forced concerned saltwater representatives into action.

When the seas and oceans learned that corrupt land and ocean scientists were concocting a fake crisis to enrich themselves, political sponsors, and collaborators, they decided that they simply must speak out against the travesty of distorted ocean science.

Al Fin interviewed the chairman of the proceedings after the conclusion of the conference:

Al Fin: Thank you for speaking with me today, Chairman GBR (Great Barrier Reef).

Chmn: It is certainly my pleasure, Al. And thank you so much for taking time out of your schedule to attend our conference.

AF: I would not have missed it for all the world. Can you tell me why the oceans and ocean communities are so relieved by the findings of this conference?

Chmn: Well, Al, the oceans of the world have been very angry -- and you don't want to make them angry, Al, you really don't. They have been hearing all this news about humans killing the oceans with acid and CO2 until they were beginning to believe it. Having you here to explain the dishonesty of corrupt science, media, and politicians has helped us understand what is really going on.

AF: Certainly humans are doing some bad things to the seas and oceans, and for that I am sorry. But those are local problems, such as dumping toxins, untreated sewage, and other excess nutrients into the local ecosystems. Some harbours, bays, and estuaries are being stressed -- and that problem needs to be addressed.

Chmn: Yes, of course it does, Al. But all the hoopla about acid oceans and CO2 only distracts from the real problems you point out. If the crooked scientists are eating up all the resources which could have been used for remediation and finding solutions for real problems, it only hurts us more, Al.

AF: You are certainly correct. And that is why you should feel relief at the results of the November 2010 US elections. The criminal enterprise which could only do untold damage to both humans and the oceans has at least been slowed down by the election of less corrupt and less gullible elected representatives at the US federal and state levels.

Chmn: We understand all that now, thanks to you, Al. Thanks again for attending this important summit and conference.

AF: Thank you, Chairman GBR, for speaking with me for the benefit of Al Fin blog readers.

More from Matt Ridley here

Hungry Plankton Gobble CO2, Astound Scientists

Physorg
There is so much that scientists still do not know about Earth's climate, the oceans, the carbon cycle, and so much more. Recently, scientists were surprised to learn that plankton travel relatively long distances -- in terms of ocean depth -- to seek out both nutrients and CO2. Back to the drawing boards.

For almost three decades, oceanographers have been puzzled by the ability of microscopic algae to grow in mid-ocean areas where there is very little nitrate, an essential algal nutrient. In this week's issue of Nature, MBARI chemical oceanographer Ken Johnson, along with coauthors Stephen Riser at the University of Washington and David Karl at the University of Hawaii, show that mid-ocean algae obtain nitrate from deep water, as much as 250 meters below the surface. This finding will help scientists predict how open-ocean ecosystems could respond to global warming.

...Surface waters in this and other mid-ocean areas contain almost no nitrate or other plant nutrients. Yet each year, microscopic algae (phytoplankton) flourish in these vast, open-ocean areas. Although miniscule in size, these mid-ocean algae consume about one fifth of all the carbon dioxide taken up by plants and algae worldwide.
To solve this mystery, Johnson and his fellow researchers used a robotic drifter called an Apex float, which automatically moves from the sea surface down to 1,000 meters and then back again, collecting data as it goes. Researchers at the University of Washington outfitted this drifter with an oxygen sensor and a custom version of Johnson's In Situ Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer (ISUS), which measures nitrate concentrations in seawater.

...From January through October of each year, the instruments on the drifter showed a gradual increase in oxygen concentrations in the upper 100 meters of the ocean. At the same time, the float detected a gradual decrease in concentrations of nitrate in deeper waters, from 100 to 250 meters below the surface.
Johnson and his coauthors found that the amount of oxygen being produced near the surface through photosynthesis was directly proportional to the amount of nitrate that was being consumed in deeper water. _Physorg

Science is still relatively ignorant about the deep processes of life and climate on Earth. Certainly far too ignorant for humans to base the future of their civilisations upon half-baked computer models which leave out the most critical parameters -- and include too much uncertainty to reliably predict anything at all.

Science is just barely beginning to learn a few of the things it would need to know to predict a future climate. It is time for the rational humility of our present limitations to enter science at all levels once again -- particularly in the areas where science intersects with politics and public technological and economic policy.

There are a large number of ocean organisms that take CO2 out of the atmosphere on a semi-permanent basis -- as is obvious from observing geologic phenomena such as limestone and chalk. Fossil fuels are still being formed under the oceans, as well as the massive layers of fossil rock. All of that carbon was cycled through life forms -- including the lowly plankton.

Concealed Love Affair Between Sea Life and CO2

We recently learned that atmospheric CO2 nourishes coral reefs using the lowly sea sponge. Now we are learning that sea creatures can ramp up shell production when exposed to higher levels of dissolved CO2 in sea water.

Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) scientists report that some shell-building creatures -- such as crabs, shrimp and lobsters -- unexpectedly build more shell when exposed to ocean acidification caused by elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).

Because excess CO2 dissolves in the ocean -- causing it to "acidify" -- researchers have been concerned about the ability of certain organisms to maintain the strength of their shells. Carbon dioxide is known to trigger a process that reduces the abundance of carbonate ions in seawater -- one of the primary materials that marine organisms use to build their calcium carbonate shells and skeletons....

....But in a study published in the Dec. 1 issue of Geology, a team led by former WHOI postdoctoral researcher Justin B. Ries found that seven of the 18 shelled species they observed actually built more shell when exposed to varying levels of increased acidification. This may be because the total amount of dissolved inorganic carbon available to them is actually increased when the ocean becomes more acidic, even though the concentration of carbonate ions is decreased. _SD

Oceans have been exposed to much higher levels of CO2 in the past than humans could possibly produce from fossil fuels. Ocean life loves CO2. Photosynthetic algae blossoms in the presence of higher CO2, providing fodder for the rest of the ocean's food chain. As mentioned above, sea sponges convert half their weight in CO2 per day to nutrient-rich excretia -- feeding much of the rest of the coral reef in the process. And now that scientists are finally admitting that higher dissolved levels of CO2 actually drive formation of sea shell in many sea creatures, the public no longer has an excuse for its absurd "ocean acidification mania and panic!".

The oceans are not being acidified. They are embracing the CO2 -- begging for as much as they can get! -- and turning it into sea life.

See WattsUpWithThat!!?? for more.

More detail on ocean carbon chemistry (via comments in WUWT)

Oceans Hungrily Soaking Up CO2, SeaLife Thriving

Despite the growing emissions of CO2 from human activities, the actual airborne fraction of CO2 in the air stays relatively constant!  The ocean's voracious appetite for CO2 appears to be keeping up with everything humans can do to blow it out the tailpipes and smokestacks.  And no wonder!  A recent Dutch study shows that sea sponges live almost exclusively from dissolved ocean CO2.   The sponges consume half their own weight each day in dissolved CO2 without gaining weight!!!  It seems that the sea sponges turn the dissolved CO2 into nutritious waste that it then makes available to the rest of the reef inhabitants for consumption.  In other words, CO2 is the life of the reef.

The graph above (via Anthony Watts) comes from a study by the University of Bristol, which proves using actual data -- not computer models -- that the oceans and biosphere are soaking up CO2 as quickly as humans can emit it.

The strength of the new study, published online in Geophysical Research Letters, is that it rests solely on measurements and statistical data, including historical records extracted from Antarctic ice, and does not rely on computations with complex climate models.


...this data suggests that terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans have a much greater capacity to absorb CO2 than had been previously expected.


The results run contrary to a significant body of recent research which expects that the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans to absorb CO2 should start to diminish as CO2 emissions increase, letting greenhouse gas levels skyrocket. Dr Wolfgang Knorr at the University of Bristol, UK, found that in fact the trend in the airborne fraction since 1850 has only been 0.7 ± 1.4% per decade, which is essentially zero. _Hindu

The infant science of climatology became hopelessly entangled in politics in the 1990s. Computer models with faulty assumptions, and proxy studies using bad statistical methodology and cherry-picked data were pushed to the forefront. Actual scientific observations and a dispassionate analysis of findings were forsaken for the addicting and corrupting influence of political and popular fame associated with the "carbon climate catastrophe".

An entire generation of "climate scientists" has been indoctrinated into this faux science of crisis seeking. Like the ambulance chasers of the legal profession, the doom seekers of climate are chasing the prize of quick grants, fame, and the warm cliquish comfort of an empty consensus.

Unfortunately for that "lost generation", true science is proceeding to pass them by.

Here is the full text PDF of Knorr's U Bristol paper, courtesy of Anthony Watts

Here is a physicist's take on the Knorr paper from Lubos Motl. More (14 Nov 09): According to Lubos' calculations, the Earth system is trying to return to a CO2 atmospheric concentration of 280 ppm -- a colder and far less life-friendly level of the vital nutrient [CO2] that plants, sea sponges, and many microbes of land and sea crave.

Coral Reefs: Is There Any Danger? No, No, Not Really

Is there any danger?
No, no, not really.
Just lean on me.
Takin time to treat
Your friendly neighbors honestly.
Simon and Garfunkel

Would it be too much to ask of climate science, to begin depending more upon empirical data rather than computer models? Computer models are tautological, in that you can tune the parameters to achieve virtually any output you wish. Recent predictions about "ocean acidification", "coral reef devastation", and "the irrevocable destruction of the ocean biosphere" have been given more than ample press--despite not being based upon actual scientific results. Computer models can suggest scientific research, but the models in themselves are not science. We need more data!Seawater pH is not relatively constant, historically, but rather ocean pH has fluctuated historically, and has been increasing (becoming less acidic) over the past 100 million years. While it is fashionable to claim that ocean pH has dropped 0.1 unit since the beginning of the industrial age, in reality data to prove such an assertion is sadly lacking. In fact, we still lack a useful network of reliable pH monitor buoys of sufficient sophistication to give reliable data for predictive purposes over decadal and multi-decadal scales. Current claims of the ocean's doom rest upon the combination of poorly validated proxies with infinitely tunable computer models. We need more data.

Different types of coral, algae, phytoplankton have evolved over the past 250 million years to thrive at different temperatures, light levels, depths, ionic concentrations, etc. Most coral thrives at warmer temperatures, so that you would expect coral growth to increase should the oceans warm. Coral is sensitive to human waste effluent, nitrogen fertilizers, and other toxic and nutrient effluents.

Experiments in coral reef microcosms and with transplanted corals suggest that a coral that thrives in one set of conditions may die under other growth conditions. Corals have lived for over 250 million years in Earth's oceans. They have survived and adapted to conditions that led to multiple large scale extinctions of land species--including the dinosaurs. They survived conditions of much lower pH and much higher atmospheric CO2 levels--and greatly warmer temperatures--than Earth is likely to see within the next few centuries. There is some evidence that the addition of dissolved inorganic carbon to seawater actually promotes coral growth, but be aware that coral growth rates are not always accurate indicators of coral reef health. We need more data.

Climate hysteria serves a useful purpose--if you are established at ground zero in the global carbon trading schemes, like Al Gore and his friends. These insiders stand to make tens and hundreds of billions of US dollars, should their schemes be adopted by the rich western nations. The news and entertainment media are surprisingly easy to manipulate, for these insiders. By inserting their message into government schools curricula from the earliest ages, they neutralise the natural incredulity to unproven science that well-educated persons would normally display.

It will be fascinating to see if the affluent western governments can be intimidated into adopting the economically counter-productive "remedies" that Al Gore and his gang are promoting.