Yellowstone, Ice Age, Obama Dark Ages

Yellowstone National Park is volcanic in nature, yet not one cone or caldera is visible. In the 1960s, this mystery was finally solved: The entire park -- 2.2 million acres -- is the caldera. It's the largest active supervolcano on Earth. Yellowstone started erupting about 17 million years ago, and it has a cycle of erupting roughly every 600,000 years. The last eruption was 630,000 years ago, so it's about 30,000 years past due on the next big one. _TheStreet_via_ValueInvesting_via_SimoleonSense

When Yellowstone supervolcano next erupts, "it's unlikely any humans within 700 miles of the park would survive. An area the size of New York State would have ash 67 feet deep. The aftermath probably would be worse, with no sunlight for years throughout the planet and much farmland rendered useless under mountains of ash." We know it will happen, we simply do not know when.

The same is true for the next ice age. We are currently roughly 12,000 years into the current inter-glacial period. Since inter-glacials typically last from 10,000 years to 25,000 years, we are either overdue for the next ice age (glaciation) or we have a bit of natural warming yet to experience before the next deadly age of ice descends. Science does not know, either way.

A global economy is a complex system, like the climate. Largely unpredictable, generally tolerant up to a point, the global economy will eventually shock even the most complacent economist, politician, or investor. The current global economic backlash should be taken as a warning to those responsible for national economies: "Clean up your act or suffer the consequences!"

China may be listening, Angela Merkel of Germany seems to be listening. But Putin is not, Obama is not, Kevin Rudd is not, Ahmedinejad is not. All of the clowns who are ignoring the impending eruption of this economic Mt. Doom were elected, after a fashion. Each has his own reasons for ignoring the warning signs and proceeding through the caution tape. Each country being led by these bozos will pay a severe penalty for the failure to heed the caution signals.

Look, globalization has created this interlocking fragility. At no time in the history of the universe has the cancellation of a Christmas order in New York meant layoffs in China. So for a while it created the illusion of stability, but it has created this devastating Black Swan.

Complex systems do not like debt. So it will proceed to destroy tens of trillions in debt until society rebuilds itself in an ultraconservative manner. We are in for a worse ride than people think.

People have the problem of denial. This is one of the things I learned in Lebanon. Everybody who left Beirut when the war started, including my parents, said, 'Oh, its temporary.' It lasted 17 years! People tend to underestimate the gravity of these situations. That's how they work.

Is this crisis going to last 17 years?

Unfortunately no, complex systems cascade much faster than that. However, the destruction will be deeper than people anticipate. It will bring down a lot of people.

My rosy scenario is that a better economic environment will develop, a low-debt, robust growth world, in which whatever is fragile will be allowed to break early and not late. _NicholasTalebWaPo_via_SimoleonSense

But Mr. Obama's plan is different from that of Mr. Taleb. Rather than aiming toward a better economic environment and a robust growth world, Mr. Obama is aiming toward a world of "de-development."

...scarcity politics seeks to slow and even reverse material progress through what President Obama's science adviser, John Holdren, calls "de-development."

"De-development"--that is, the retreat from economic growth--includes some sensible notions about conservation but takes them to unreasonable, socially devastating and politically unpalatable extremes. The agenda, for example, includes an opposition to population growth, limits on material consumption and a radical redistribution of wealth both nationally and to the developing world. _Forbes

The Obama club is the same club as the climate catastrophe club: the de-development club. Science is not involved, except to be twisted and exploited toward political ends. Never let a crisis go un-exploited. Mr. Obama's reasons for making a bad situation infinitely worse are his own.

The rest of the international bozo club also have their own individual reasons for ripping the guts out of the human future. Putin is out for the glory of greater Russia. Ahmedinejad is paving the way for the 12th imam. Rudd is another leftist zomboid with delusions of saving the Earth through correct ideology. Every bozo has his reasons.