30 Years of Global Cooling Coming Right Up!

IPCC models do not properly take into account the multi-decadal oscillations of ocean temperatures and currents. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) hold enormous power over the ongoing climate of Earth. At this time, both the PDO and the AMO appear to be shifting into extended "cold phase."

The announcement by NASA that the (PDO) had shifted from its warm mode to its cool mode (Fig. 1) is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes (Easterbrook, 2001, 2006, 2007) and is not an oddity superimposed upon and masking the predicted severe warming by the IPCC. This has significant implications for the future and indicates that the IPCC climate models were wrong in their prediction of global temperatures soaring 1°F per decade for the rest of the century.

Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. (NASA image by Jesse Allen, AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, adapted from a press release from NASA JPL).Instead of a rise of 1°F during the first decade of this century as predicted by IPCC climate models (Fig 2), global temperatures cooled slightly for the past nine years and cooled more than 1°F this year (Fig 3). Global cooling over the past decade appears to be due to a global cooling trend set up by the PDO cool mode and a similar shift in the Atlantic. The IPCC’s prediction of a 1° F warming by 2011, will require warming of about 1° F in the next three years and unless that happens, the IPCC models will be proven invalid. _IceCap_(PDF)

The convergence of an extended solar minimum, shifts in both PDO and AMO to cooling phase, and the possibility of extended weak solar cycles beginning with either cycle 24 (still delayed) or cycle 25, should make for some interesting climate watching over the next several years.

The triumphal march of Al Gore and the wholly warmer orthodoxy through the gates of Oslo and Hollywood may have been slightly premature. The Earth is a tiny part of the Cosmos, and its planet is affected by events taking place far from Earth. On the surface of our planet, the titanic forces of ocean, biosphere, and atmosphere hold sway.