31 May 2008

Cold Winter in South Africa: IQ and Incompetence

The southern hemisphere of Earth is bracing for a cold winter, similar to what much of the northern hemisphere recently experienced, only worse. Cold weather is more dangerous than hot weather--up to ten times more people die from cold weather than hot. For a society to survive truly cold winters, it must be technically competent to protect its people from the effects of cold.

The average IQ of the population of South Africa is 72. A quick glance at an enlarged view of the image below, will show that very few South Africans possess a high enough IQ to acquire technical competence in the technologies of the modern world. So long as the weather stays warm, populations with low IQs can survive despite the heat, for the most part. It is only when temperatures plummet that the importance of IQ and competence are revealed in stark calamity.
Falling temperatures will push up electricity demand across South Africa - and with it the real prospect of winter blackouts...The national power grid remains stable, but for the first time this week, demand went past the summer's high of 31 000MW and peaked at 34 000MW.

...Even though South Africa does not have a history of sustained cold fronts, Eskom expects that even "a little freezing cold" will put its grid under pressure...According to the Weather Service's winter forecast, the country could experience "below normal temperatures" on average in June and July.

The seasonal forecast also says the country could experience more severe cold snaps than last year. __Source
Bland words in a news report. Nothing to worry about, right? Wrong. Although South Africa's latitude extends only slightly further into the cold zone than Florida, Kuwait, or Mexico, the country's cities are not accustomed to prolonged cold weather.

What if the sun enters a prolonged solar minimum, as predicted(PDF)? Temperatures in many traditionally warm locations would dive into dangerous ranges of cold. Humans can adjust to different circumstances. If they possess the "human capital." What if the majority of the people cannot be trained to operate and maintain the machinery of modern western civilisations--the machinery that allows western nations to survive in temperate and near polar environments in urban environments?

As long as a low-IQ population coexists with a sufficiently large market dominant minority, the minority can operate and maintain modern machines and technologies, and the majority can benefit from their expertise. But when a low-IQ majority overthrows its market dominant minority--persecutes that minority and drives it from the country--the burden for maintaining a technological infrastructure rests upon the country's majority. South Africa is better off without Apartheid. But it is not better off without skilled and talented high-IQ technicians, engineers, scientists, medical professionals, farmers, and business persons.

If the machinery of civilisation begins to break down due to various stresses--expected and unexpected--the population will grow unruly and demand to be taken care of. The political elites in low-IQ countries live a far more luxurious existence than the average person, a fact that will not escape the majority of the population when everyday machinery begins to break down.

We should hope that the weather in warm, traditionally low-IQ population countries will never turn unseasonably cold for a prolonged period. But too many things in the natural universe are beyond the control of humans, the climate being one of them. The natural state of Earth's climate for the past several million years has been one of extensive glaciation. Our current warm period is just a short, lucky intermission between the iceball Earth norms.

The tribes of Earth that migrated to colder climates developed over time to match their environment. The tribes that remained in the warmth nearer the equator were never challenged in the cyclical, systematic ways in which the more polar oriented tribes were tested.

Think about what happens when the Earth turns cold again. The ice will march equator-ward. Human populations will be pressed together. Cold weather humans will need warm weather lands to grow crops and to live out of the ice. Warm weather humans will need the technical expertise of cold weather humans to survive the unwelcome cold. But it will not go that smoothly. Disputes over control of territory are typical in all animal species, including man. Cold is a killing thing.

H/T Tom Nelson

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Blogger Snake Oil Baron said...

They might try making sure that the construction industries are as open and deregulated as possible so that they can afford to hire, train and fire people as needed so that the companies can make use of local labour while using temporary foreign technical talent and off shore management skill.

While there are plenty of tradesmen and labourers who do not have low IQs, people with low IQs can be employed successfully in many construction and electricity related fields if the technical expertise is available to the companies, even if they need to import it at times.

Frankly, better insulation and energy infrastructure is crucial even if they remain a warm climate. Air conditioning likely raises productivity at work and health at home (and is less energy intensive than heating a residence in a cold climate). Construction and infrastructure industries are becoming one of the worlds most important industries for the moment and near-term future and labour shortages (both skilled and unskilled) are constant problems. Research into productivity in these fields should be a high priority for these industries - making the techniques more simple, less energy and labour intensive and quicker.

Saturday, 31 May, 2008  
Blogger Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...

Sun / Global temperature question/comment:
I understand the theory of the solar wind generated by high sunspot activity sheltering the earth from cosmic rays (hence, less cloud formation). However, what about coronal holes? Coronal hole activity is up. They blast the earth with solar wind at a much higher velocity than that from sunspots. I googled and found a study from 2000 that theorizes wind from the holes seeds the upper atmosphere and causes additional cloud formation. I haven't come across anything recent though. So solar wind from sunspots warms the earth while solar wind from coronal holes cools the earth? Very very confusing... Can anyone here link to some more recent info in regards to coronal holes and climate?

Sunday, 01 June, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Baron, South Africa built a large, modern technological infrastructure at a time when it possessed a much larger market dominant minority that possessed an average IQ almost 2 full standard deviations higher than the majority population average. Just maintaining that infrastructure--just keeping the lights, heat, and air conditioning on--is a challenge for a population with an IQ average of 72.

Modern construction and maintenance is a little more complicated than "hey you! bring me that thingamajiggy."

HILN, the sun is suspected to influence Earth's climatic variability through several mechanisms. It is too early to do much more than chart correlations. Upcoming research at CERN is Switzerland, and ongoing satellite research may help clarify the different mechanisms involved.

Sunday, 01 June, 2008  
Blogger Audacious Epigone said...

The correlation between IQ and distance from the equator is .67 at the national level and .70 at the state level in the US. Very interesting post. Well done.

Wednesday, 04 June, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Merci beaucoup, monsieur AE.

People overlook the basics when they think about how modern societies work, and fail to work.

Friday, 06 June, 2008  
Blogger c-u-r-m-u-d-g-e-o-n said...

The figure shown is based on Wisconsin, a cold-climate state in the U.S.A. It should have been attributed to Robert M. Hauser, 2002, and can be found at http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/98-07.pdf. The figure suggests, among other things, that 10% or more of the people in any of the occupations have IQs near 107.

Occupational identity there or anywhere is based on ability, opportunity, compensation, and working satisfaction, not on ability alone. Dr. Hauser's Figure 13 cites social background, school performance, social influences, aspirations, and education; these act in sequence, but the first two also bypass all the others in determining occupation.

For example, picking data off the graphs, it appears 10% of female professors show IQ below 102, but 10% of male professors show IQ below 97. Might some men be getting a break?

All the people sampled are high school graduates and their siblings. If susceptibility to die of exposure to cold is at issue, is this population representative?

The comparable data for South Africa are not shown.

If climate is to be related to IQ, it might be useful to compare South African subsistence herdsmen, for example, with their occupational colleagues in Yemen and in Mexico, and compare this group with those in Patagonia, in Alaska, and in Siberia.

Useful, but not easy; a culturally neutral IQ test is as elusive as the Holy Grail. And even if a valid comparison were made, the question would remain whether the samples of herdsmen were biased by their unequal opportunities to escape to more comfortable occupations.

So the question remains: is there any way to study this issue that is even remotely scientific?

Thursday, 15 April, 2010  

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