Update: The Sun Still Heats the Earth

Not that this will help anyone win a Nobel Peace Prize, but a recent research paper claims that the best evidence shows that the sun is responsible for at least 50% of any recent warming on Earth (since 1900).

A phenomenological thermodynamic model is adopted to estimate the relative contribution of the solar-induced versus anthropogenic-added climate forcing during the industrial era. We compare different preindustrial temperature and solar data reconstruction scenarios since 1610. We argue that a realistic climate scenario is the one described by a large preindustrial secular variability (as the one shown by the paleoclimate temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al. (2005)) with the total solar irradiance experiencing low secular variability (as the one shown by Wang et al. (2005)). Under this scenario the Sun might have contributed up to approximately 50% (or more if ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite (Willson and Mordvinov, 2003) is implemented) of the observed global warming since 1900.

Jnl Geophysical Research (full pdf)

Here is commentary from Lubos Motl:

That means that small changes of the Sun can lead to significant changes of the climate. With the preferred magnitude of variability as given by Moberg et al. 2005, one of their conclusions is that that Sun is responsible for roughly 50% of the observed 20th century warming. Not too surprisingly, if they choose Mann 2003 instead of Moberg 2005, the calculated effect of the Sun becomes negligible.

motls.blogspot

The problem with the CAGW climate orthodoxy is that it does not tolerate debate. By prematurely and arbitrarily declaring that "the debate is over" and "the science is settled," the archbishops of orthodoxy invite their "true believers" to go on witch hunts against the diabolical "deniers"--climate infidels and heretics. Current climate alarmism is like nothing so much as Lysenkoism--the pseudo-evolutionary biological "orthodoxy" of the late Soviet Union.

The closed-minded dogmatism of the climate orthodoxy would surprise no one who ever lived under a Nazi or Communist regime. Nor does it surprise anyone who has managed to recover from an academic lobotomy or psychological neotenic incompence.

More background on the paper by Nicola Scafetta