Priceless treasure guide disguised as the confused ramblings of a misanthropic iconoclast. Seeking the next level is not a quest for the timid, not for the easily discouraged.
The Pew Center on the States estimates $1 trillion of underfunding for the pensions and health benefits of states. Economists Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Rochester and Joshua Rauh of Northwestern University have higher totals for pensions alone; their gaps are about $3 trillion for states and almost $600 billion for localities. Underfunded health benefits for states and localities together are reckoned by different studies between $500 billion and $1.5 trillion, report economists Robert Clark and Melinda Morrill of North Carolina State University. Whatever the ultimate costs, they threaten future levels of public services. The generous benefits encourage workers to retire in their late 50s or early 60s after 25 years of service. The health benefits typically provide coverage until retirees qualify for Medicare at 65. To pay for unfunded benefits, either government services must be cut or taxes must be raised. _Samuelson
Here is the public union problem in a nutshell: Union members lobby vociferously for untenable wages and benefit packages. Greedy politicians willing to accept bribes to get reelected, go along. On any threat of reduction in benefits, union organizers get out the vote with massive fear-mongering campaigns promising ruin if they do not get what they want. At election time unions donate massively to candidates willing to back union sponsored agenda. Over time, school boards, city halls, and legislative bodies in general get packed with politicians accepting bribes (campaign contributions) from the unions. _Mish
Like homeowners, states and cities splurged on debt and found inventive ways to get around borrowing limits to finance projects they couldn’t pay for otherwise. And recently the federal government encouraged investors to pour their money into the coffers of these less-than-creditworthy borrowers. Now some of those investors, like the few lonely mortgage-industry short sellers in 2005–06, have started betting against the borrowers. Time reports that some of them “are jumping into the credit default swap market to bet against cities, towns and states.” A CDS is an insurance contract that protects a bond holder against default. But there’s a difference: You don’t necessarily have to be exposed to the underlying bond to buy a CDS. They can be bought or sold, and are priced depending on the market’s perception of bond default probability. If the risk increases, it is likely that the demand for CDSs will too, leading to an increase in their price. Brian Fraser, a partner at the law firm Richards Kibbe & Orbe LLP, told Time, “The spreads on CDSs have been growing, and the dollar amount of CDSs on municipals has grown in the last year. That’s a clear warning sign that people are effectively starting to short the muni market.” The state and municipal debt crisis could culminate in a request for the third near-trillion-dollar bailout of the last two years. That much federal borrowing on top of the current debt could very quickly have an impact on interest rates and on the dollar. And at that point, we can just forget about the recovery. _ReasonMag
Labels: big government, collapse of nations, decline of the west, public sector unions
posted by al fin at 3:17 pm
So, will we have our version of the Weimar Republic or the "lost decade" of Japan?
Perhaps the US will experience "1989" as in Eastern Europe. Except spread out over months or years.That would be preferable to a US Tiananmen Square in terms of outcome.
Possibly, but just as likely would be a reaction similar to Greece and UK 2010... violence from the left because entitlements are being taken away.The political right tends to avoid such tactics and cling to "law and order" even in the face of governmental lawlessness.
"When the going gets tough the tough get going, the smart left a long time ago" ~despair.com for those who want to buy the poster.Perhaps America will have another 1918 crash. You know the one that was so short lived, due to the government doing nothing and allowing the market to correct its self, that no one will even remember it in a few years..... Or perhaps America will have another Great Depression, maybe we'll even get to use one of those newfangled neutron bombs I've been hearing about. Or to loosely quote my favorite TV coach from Blue Mountain State the American economy will continue to "hang on by a pube" until we can change out another batch of representatives senators, and the entire executive branch. It takes a Carter to get a Reagen, I just hope this Reagen will have the stomach to make some deep cuts. Or we can auction off government run programs and allow the private sector to run things like our schools, roads, fire and police departments, and other sevices.
Bruce: Violence from the unions and from the left is inevitable, as you say. And certainly in the US, in general persons on the right and in the center tend to avoid untidy confrontations with the authorities.Obama's attorney general and the statist media tend to project violent threats and tendencies onto the right, however, and use these fantasies to justify more and more incursions by the feds into the rights of individuals and states.Hence the title question of this article.gtg: The best analogy to what is happening is an inoperable cancer that is ultimately resistant to all therapies. It grows mindlessly, part of the patient but certain to kill him in the end.What will be the trigger for final collapse, and when will it happen? And what will arise from the rubble?
I've vowed to make 2011 the year I get my survival portfolio together. Yes, even a bugout bag. I was genuinely surprised that my wife was not entirely dismissive when I broached the subject. She is someone who detests politics and pays little attention outside election season. She must also sense something is very wrong. She did not even freak out when I mentioned getting a gun. (the guns went when the kids came many years ago). Next step: getting a "posse" of like minded people together.
StaticNoise is right about the "posse". Groups will survive where individuals will not.My bet is on combat military units (maybe minus some of their more fabulous accoutrements?); followed by the Mormon Church. The Amish are a shoo-in for survival, of course.Western political structures today are like a rotted old house, with termites in the basement and leaks in the roof. All it will take is a good push, and the whole thing comes down.What will that push be? It will probably be from outside the West -- Russian adventurism, Chinese expansionism, Chavez stupidity, or maybe a random virus mutating in Pakistan. But history tells us that an external stressor is almost inevitable.
Absolutely. Form a community nucleus made up of competent individuals with diverse skills, and the ability to work together. If any lawyers, bureaucrats, or social science professors try to join your group, be sure to dispose of the bodies where no one would ever find them.;-)
Static Noise: Where do you live, your guns, amo, and food are welcome anytime. GA is cooler and wetter than usual, so maybe we won't miss the AC when the grid goes down. Although we do live rather close to a nuclear power plant, I'm not sure how the grid going down will effect it. So far we have a .40, a .380, a .38, a 9mm, a 47 magnum, a 22 long rifle and a pump action shot gun. We have about 4 months worth of food but I'm about to make another trip to Sam's.Kinuachdrach: The Amish are not a shoo-in for survival, that is where the murdering, raping, zombie like horde from the cities will go first. Remember they don't use/have guns to protect themselves and even if they did they wouldn't use them.
“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell
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9 Comments:
So, will we have our version of the Weimar Republic or the "lost decade" of Japan?
Perhaps the US will experience "1989" as in Eastern Europe. Except spread out over months or years.
That would be preferable to a US Tiananmen Square in terms of outcome.
Possibly, but just as likely would be a reaction similar to Greece and UK 2010... violence from the left because entitlements are being taken away.
The political right tends to avoid such tactics and cling to "law and order" even in the face of governmental lawlessness.
"When the going gets tough the tough get going, the smart left a long time ago" ~despair.com for those who want to buy the poster.
Perhaps America will have another 1918 crash. You know the one that was so short lived, due to the government doing nothing and allowing the market to correct its self, that no one will even remember it in a few years..... Or perhaps America will have another Great Depression, maybe we'll even get to use one of those newfangled neutron bombs I've been hearing about. Or to loosely quote my favorite TV coach from Blue Mountain State the American economy will continue to "hang on by a pube" until we can change out another batch of representatives senators, and the entire executive branch. It takes a Carter to get a Reagen, I just hope this Reagen will have the stomach to make some deep cuts. Or we can auction off government run programs and allow the private sector to run things like our schools, roads, fire and police departments, and other sevices.
Bruce: Violence from the unions and from the left is inevitable, as you say. And certainly in the US, in general persons on the right and in the center tend to avoid untidy confrontations with the authorities.
Obama's attorney general and the statist media tend to project violent threats and tendencies onto the right, however, and use these fantasies to justify more and more incursions by the feds into the rights of individuals and states.
Hence the title question of this article.
gtg: The best analogy to what is happening is an inoperable cancer that is ultimately resistant to all therapies. It grows mindlessly, part of the patient but certain to kill him in the end.
What will be the trigger for final collapse, and when will it happen? And what will arise from the rubble?
I've vowed to make 2011 the year I get my survival portfolio together. Yes, even a bugout bag. I was genuinely surprised that my wife was not entirely dismissive when I broached the subject. She is someone who detests politics and pays little attention outside election season. She must also sense something is very wrong. She did not even freak out when I mentioned getting a gun. (the guns went when the kids came many years ago). Next step: getting a "posse" of like minded people together.
StaticNoise is right about the "posse". Groups will survive where individuals will not.
My bet is on combat military units (maybe minus some of their more fabulous accoutrements?); followed by the Mormon Church. The Amish are a shoo-in for survival, of course.
Western political structures today are like a rotted old house, with termites in the basement and leaks in the roof. All it will take is a good push, and the whole thing comes down.
What will that push be? It will probably be from outside the West -- Russian adventurism, Chinese expansionism, Chavez stupidity, or maybe a random virus mutating in Pakistan. But history tells us that an external stressor is almost inevitable.
Absolutely. Form a community nucleus made up of competent individuals with diverse skills, and the ability to work together. If any lawyers, bureaucrats, or social science professors try to join your group, be sure to dispose of the bodies where no one would ever find them.
;-)
Static Noise: Where do you live, your guns, amo, and food are welcome anytime. GA is cooler and wetter than usual, so maybe we won't miss the AC when the grid goes down. Although we do live rather close to a nuclear power plant, I'm not sure how the grid going down will effect it. So far we have a .40, a .380, a .38, a 9mm, a 47 magnum, a 22 long rifle and a pump action shot gun. We have about 4 months worth of food but I'm about to make another trip to Sam's.
Kinuachdrach: The Amish are not a shoo-in for survival, that is where the murdering, raping, zombie like horde from the cities will go first. Remember they don't use/have guns to protect themselves and even if they did they wouldn't use them.
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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell
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