14 August 2008

Spotless Sun, Armagh Observatory: Freeze Watch

After all the hype over catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) doom, it may come as a shock to many readers that scientists do not understand the Earth's climate very well. Forget Al Gore, forget James Hansen, forget Michael Mann. Pay attention to what the sun is telling us, by its quietness.
The observatory [Armagh] notes that solar cycles 21 and 22, which were characterized by being short and intense in their activity, led to the natural global warming observed in the 80’s and 90’s.

“Cycle 23, which hasn’t finished yet, looks like it will be long (at least 12 to 13 years) and cycle 24, which has still to start, looks like it will be exceptionally weak,” writes one observatory scientist.

“Based on the past Armagh measurements, this suggests that over the next two decades, global temperatures may fall by about 2 degrees C — that is, to a level lower than any we have seen in the last 100 years….“Temperatures have already fallen by about 0.5 degrees C over the past 12 months and, if this is only the start of it, it would be a serious concern,” concludes David Watt. _PrisonPlanet_via_TomNelson
Natural climate variation is driven by multiple overlapping solar cycles, by the ocean multidecadal oscillations, by volcanic activity, by chaotic biological cycles on land and in the sea, all influencing and being influenced by ice and snow cover. None of these factors are well understood. Yet the wholly warmer climate orthodoxy claims to be able to simplify climate to one parameter: anthropogenic greenhouse gases! These high priests of the orthodoxy exhibit a sad combination of laziness and arrogance.

They are like the lazy and incompetent physician who jumps at the first diagnosis that enters his mind, and refuses to consider any other factors. But having jumped onto the political and media bandwagon of climate doom, these alarmist orthodoxers have set their course, regardless of how the reality may develop.

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Blogger Unknown said...

A letter to the Belfast Telegraph, published on 2008 August 13th (link), has been picked up by other sites who give the impression that it represents the views of the Armagh Observatory. We do not know of any evidence based on Armagh observations (whether solar or meteorological) that predicts an imminent drop in global temperatures of two degrees C, nor do we know the author of the letter to the Belfast Telegraph. Peer-reviewed publications referring to the Observatory's climate data can be found at climate.arm.ac.uk.

C.J. Butler, Emeritis Research Fellow
H.M. Murphy, Computer Manager

Armagh Observatory

Friday, 22 August, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Thanks for the "clarification".

What you are not explaining is where the comment from David Watt originated. You seem to be trying to avoid the issue of sunspots altogether.

Your funding grants are probably safe so long as you avoid any public comments that casts doubt on the orthodoxy of holy warmers. Carry on.

Wednesday, 27 August, 2008  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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