Russia Running on Fumes

For all its big-power bluster, Russia is weak and vulnerable. Russian tanks and aircraft may have smashed the fledgeling Georgian Army with ease, but most of the weaponry was Cold War-era and many of the troops conscripts. Anyone who has seen the Russian Army operating in the Caucasus knows that the military will need a generation to modernise. Meanwhile America, and its main Nato allies, are decades ahead in military technology and combat experience.

Russia is also facing a severe demographic crisis. Its population is shrinking by 700,000 people a year. The UN estimates the population will fall below 100 million by 2050, down from around 146 million today.

As for the economy, it is booming thanks to natural resources that account for 70 per cent of the country's wealth. But the oil price is in a state of flux. Russia has failed to diversify. Should energy prices fall sharply, the economy could collapse, as it did a decade ago. _TimesOnline

Russia has been building up to its invasion of Georgia for several months. It managed to scrape together enough tanks, planes, and elite troops to subdue one tiny neighboring country. Putin hopes that this act will send a message to Europeans and the rest of the west, that the Russian bear still has a mean bite. But is that the message that comes across?

Western powers may not do much immediately about his squeeze on Georgia, but over time he will find he has created conditions for the emergence of a coalition to contain Russian energy power. His immediate neighbors, with fresh memories of Soviet domination, will be even more eager to align themselves with the West and NATO. Possibly even the myopic Germans will discern they've gone too far in putting themselves in energy hock to Moscow. _WSJ

Russia's weapons are old technology. Most of its ships, submarines, and large transports are poorly maintained. Its men are mostly draftees, lacking basic equipment and almost entirely unmotivated to fight for a country in decay.

Russia depends upon its energy resources for most of its wealth. But Russia lacks the technical expertise to develop its own resources. It must contract with outside corporations to develop oil and gas fields--then inevitably Russia nationalises (steals) the assets from the multinationals. Eventually, Russia will find it hard to get business partners, and the flow of oil and gas will drop rapidly.

Russia's rapidly shrinking population can no longer supply the manpower needed in defense, technology, energy, and other vital fields. As related here before:

The share of high-tech products in Russia’s exports is only 0.6%, “a shameful rate” according to Vladimir Fortov, a member of the Russian Academy of Science. Over the past 15 years, he says, Russia has not brought to the market a single significant drug. The average age of Russia’s scientists is well over 50. One of the main commercial activities of Russian research institutes is leasing or selling their property and land.

Scientific inventions tend to be developed abroad. The chain that turns a scientific innovation into a marketable product simply does not exist, says Mr Fortov. And the key to creating it, he argues, is not setting up state corporations, but unshackling the system from bureaucracy and letting private companies operate freely. “We have tried everything else and we know it does not work,” he concludes. _Economist

But Russia under Putin will never allow private companies to operate freely. Free enterprise creates wealthy individuals, who could develop their own powerful networks of people and resources. Putin would never stand for rivals of any kind.

So Russia is a doomed country, with not much time left for this strutting and posturing. Even the invasion of tiny Georgia required almost a year's buildup, and severely stressed Russia's logistical capacity. When Russia falls from overreach, its neighbors will rush in to loot the country. But Putin and his cronies will be gone, living on billions in Swiss bank accounts. The Russians still alive inside Russia will pay once again for allowing corrupt leaders to sell them phony national greatness for their sheeplike complicity.