When Hubbert is God, Only a Fool Believes
I have posted a few images from Chapter 4 of Gorelick's book, to give you a flavour of some of the information you can find there. One of the many bonuses of "Oil Panic" is that it presents both sides of the story of peak oil, and allows you to decide which is the more credible.
logistic bell curve. Logically, there is no reason for this assumption, but simple logic does not always come into play in the real world. What actually happens with production, vis a vis the bell curve?
Where Is The Bell Curve?
So, score a tentative point for Hubbert, against all his demonstrated errors. Still, watch below, as US oil production takes a decided departure from its Hubbertian bell curve trajectory.
But Hubbert was far more intelligent and open to contrary data, than most of his modern-day followers. No doubt he would have juxtaposed his predictions and the data and modified his approach accordingly.
Peak Oil DOOM(!)ers have a tendency to deify their prophets, such as Hubbert -- although Hubbert is more of an arch-prophet or god in the peak oil world. When one deifies a person, one is unable to objectively examine data that contradicts the words of the deity. Mass religious and quasi-religious movements -- such as peak oil DOOM! or carbon hysteria DOOM! -- comprise large numbers of persons who have suspended rational judgment in this way, and are thus unable to critically examine the evidence.
But the world doesn't stop for anyone -- not even a demi-god. Our rational examination of the ongoing data should not stop either.
This article is cross-posted to Al Fin Energy under a different title.
Labels: peak oil