Neo-Malthusians Haunt the Modern Zeitgeist -- Again

During the 1970s, the Club of Rome report The Limits to Growth projected that, assuming consumption remained flat, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years. With exponential growth in consumption, it added, all the known oil reserves would be consumed in 20 years. _Reason

Malthus was Wrong?
The spirit of Thomas Malthus roams the modern thought-ways just like back in the 1970s. Although global warming doom may be falling out of favour among more intelligent and scrupulous observers, there are plenty of other Malthusian nightmares hovering above the modern consciousness.

Once more, we are warned of a great worldwide famine approaching. Social collapse from peak oil doom appears inevitable, to large numbers. All of the multiple crises -- food, water, energy, climate, population, pollution etc -- are converging upon Earth's population like a flock of dark dementors, dooming us all to deep deprivation, disease, and impoverished misery -- unto death.

If all of this sounds somewhat familiar to those who lived through the 1970s, it is because the arguments behind this round of neo-Malthusianism are virtually identical to the arguments of the neo-Malthusianism of the 70s. Whereas the 70s Malthusians predicted that doom would fall in the 1980s and 1990s, the 2010s Malthusians are predicting doom sometime by the 2020s, 2030s -- and absolutely no later than 2050 -- or 2100 at the very latest!

You see, there is no penalty for predicting peak oil doom, overpopulation doom, scarcity doom, or doom of any kind. Any given event in the daily news can be turned to fit the theory. As long as the predicted doom is far enough into the future to give one time to adapt the theory in a plausibly retrograde manner, there is no risk.

Take Colin Campbell, one of the mythical giants of peak oil doom. Mr. Campbell is belatedly recognising -- after the 2008 oil bubble burst -- that demand for oil may be a lot more flexible than he once believed.

"I have changed my point of view about future prices," said Campbell, who used to think the peak in conventional oil production, which he believes happened in 2005, would lead to a relentless price surge.

Instead, the record rally led to a peak in demand in the developed world.

"Peak oil drives prices up in the first place. It has its own mechanism. We're sort of at peak demand right now," Campbell told Reuters from his home in the village of Ballydehob, West Cork. "I think presently the price limit is about $100."

For those who have painted alarming pictures of civil unrest as the world economy is forced to move away from conventional fuel and pay high prices for it in the interim, an inbuilt price mechanism to limit demand and move the world to other forms of energy should be a good thing. _Reuters

Not that Cambell is admitting any error, no. He is merely inserting a "fudge factor" just in case his claimed 2005 peak in oil production fails to result in a collapse of world civilisation anytime soon.

For those who are unaware of the saga of Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon, read this to get up to speed. And for those who have not read Julian Simon's free online ebook The Ultimate Resource, you really need to do so ASAP.

The threat of doom hanging over our heads should certainly get our attention. But we need to be careful to distinguish true doom from faux doom. Otherwise we are likely to spend all our time and resources defending against a faux doom that never would have occurred regardless of all our efforts. In the meantime, true doom has been gathering its forces for the final assault upon our unprepared flanks.

Keep your dooms straight, so that you do not waste half your life fighting a doom that could never have been.

Source of animation via Astute Bloggers