Every 20 Years, A New Era Dawns in America
* Crisis - Often defined by a major war, calamity, depression, etc. Think Revolutionary War, Civil War, and Great Depression/WWII.The changing of the generations -- like the turning of the seasons -- brings about new attitudes across the land. This is particularly true in the modern era of instant and ubiquitous communication. Trends, fads, memes, and myths travel at the speed of light, and are carried outward on the waves. Some flare up only to die. Others acquire traction and build in influence.
* High - What follows the Crisis. Hey, we got through it, now things are looking up, up, and up. I think this is what Jim Rogers says he sees in Sri Lanka - the war is almost over, Crisis phase nearing an end, what a great time to invest. In the US, the post WWII baby boom, suburban migration, and Leave it to Beaver would make up the High. We can go to the moon, we can do anything we put our minds to.
* Awakening - A younger generation comes of age, and resents all the rules set by The Man during the High period. Since Highs follow Crises, they are characterized by rules and structure. Think 60s America as the resistance to this - Woodstock, Tie Dye, and Free Love.
* Unraveling - The Awakening uprising is integrated into mainstream culture, and society starts to split apart at the seams, hence the name Unraveling. The individual rules the day. It's "me first." Old timers lament the lack of virtue and civic spirit. Prime time for Wall Street and Las Vegas.
_SeekingAlpha
Those who tried to warn about the inevitable devastation from Obama, from Brown, from Rudd, and other bumbling radicals of the new age of carbon hysteria will not have long to wait before the unraveling turns into crisis.
Unfortunately for us, the timer's starting to tick down, and the next batch of crisis cookies are about due out of the oven here in America.The American cycle of crisis is apt to drive other cycles around the globe, due to the sheer immensity of the American economy -- and America's political and military influence on the globe.
* 1773 - 1794: American Revolution
* 1860 - 1685: American Civil War
* 1929 - 1946: Great Depression leading to WWII
* 2007 - ??? : Credit Crisis, leading to recession, leading to?
About every 80 years, America is really put to the test. And remember, history is not predetermined. There was a genuine threat to our nation during each of these preceding crises.
Strauss and Howe believe that these crises are not only unavoidable, but that they are also necessary - to cleanse society, shake out the excesses that have built up over the past three eras, and set everything on a new course going forward. _SeekingAlpha
Seen through this lens of "destiny", the election of catastrophic incompetents such as Obama makes more sense. While Brocko Bomba sees himself as the maker of his own destiny, in reality he is floating on the slipstream of a far larger cycle of history. He was the right man at the right time to fulfill the flow of destruction.
As always, Oynklent Green [OTC:OYNK] strategists continue to observe the developing crisis, as OYNK engineers continue to perfect the processes that will provide much of tomorrow's vital energy supplies.
Labels: Doombama, economic depression, Obamanation, Oynklent Green
posted by al fin at 9:56 am
6 Comments:
Recessions aren't the crisis they were in the 1930s & earlier because nobody starves. The real crisis, one of confidence, will come in about 10 years when China's economy passes the US one & sloweth not.
WW1 owed a lot to Britain's fear that Germany had passed it & Germany's fear that Russia would pass it. WW2 owed a lot to German & western European fear that the USSR economy was passing their's.
Historical trends are particularly fickle, along with climate trends. Cyclical phenomena are often hiding within the apparent linear trends.
China compiled impressive growth while labour was cheap and foreign markets were booming. Demand for Chinese exports exploded and seemed never to slow. Low energy costs further aided long-distance shipping from China to the high flying economies of Europe, North America, and the Asian tigers.
The Obama disaster in the US is not a simple recession. What should have been a cyclical recession is being converted into a quasi-permanent depression, thanks to the Obama / Pelosi reich.
The UK under Brown is also having some problems -- some of them courtesy of Obama.
Remember, once Obama dismantles the US defense apparatus, Europe-without-divisions (military divisions) is on its own.
Certainly what appear to be trends can change - the most astonishing one being when Japan's came to a juddering halt just when it looked like becoming #1. Nonetheless they often don't & at current rates China's growth doesn't have to keep going for long to pass the US. Moreover it is, in economic terms, a confederacy, Guandong province growing at 20% while the hinterland is growing slowly. This suggests the whole place isn't going to change direction at one time.
No way to tell for sure till it happens.
The easy way to do alternate history is just to assume that the protagonist country manages 2% higher annual growth than in reality & stand back for 35 years (doubling) or 70 if you want it to rule the world.
Brown is a twat. Unfortunately the alternative, Cameron, looks like somebody who understands PR better than government.
Russia is the only country that could militarily threaten Europe & we will have to disagree on whether they want to. Mind you if they want to march to the aid of Serbia by way of Berlin I would consider it richly deserved, but maybe thats just me.
I would like to point out that those crises get milder over time. We would have to be in some larger cycle for something truly terrible to happen.
The Civil War killed 600k men, including 40% of the White men in the South. The CW also left the ruling North politically unwilling to control immigration for another half century, letting in the ancestors of Ted Kennedy and the other leftist Northern voters.
Once you look at the change in the nature of the Northern population after the CW, you then realize that the socialist policies of FDR were the aftereffect of the mass immigration that occurred from 1865-1921. Since mass immigration was the aftereffect of the CW, that cataclysm drove the others, at least in the United States.
Of course, if we are in a larger cycle that is greater than each event individually, well, then God help us all.
That's a good point Ronduck - people do tend to like immigrants when they want to outpower the neighbours - European history is full of that. This means that without the Civil War the US would have ended up with a much smaller, more alnglo-saxon population than it does but also not become an economic superpower.
I didn't say the average Northerner liked the immigrants. Prior to the Civil War there was a fledgling anti-immigration movement. After the collapse of the Whig party the Northern parties had to reorganize, and had to choose abolition of slavery or abolition of immigration. I personally believe that the war left the elites of the era morally exhausted and unwilling to worry about the flood of immigrants that business was bringing in. Unfortunately, the immigrants came from countries with long traditions of socialism, and when their grandchildren came of age they swept Roosevelt into power in 1932. The South voted for FDR as well, and didn't learn their lesson until the Civil Rights movement.
There was lingering resistance in the North to FDR's policies after 1932, but over time these Yankee holdouts assimilated to the New socialist majority. The last of the free market Anglo-Saxons in the North were defeated in the election of 1960, which marked the beginning of the end for Northern heavy industry. Since that time all of the heavy industries in the North such as steel making have either gone under or relocated.
The South (heavily Scottish) finally learned its lesson and has gone on to be one of the most Republican areas of the country, complete with lower state taxes. However, as these Northern states die, their population heads to the South and they bring their idiot socialistic voting habits with them. North Carolina has gone from being a Republican state to a Democratic state because of this migration. This has even happened in my state, with Scottsdale, AZ electing a Democratic congressman for the first time because of this migration.
Had the importation of "cheap" labor never happened, the
US would be like Japan or Germany.
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