18 May 2009

China's Economic Outlook Grim

"As revenue falls and pressures for spending increase constantly... the full-year fiscal outlook is grim," the [China Finance] ministry said. _TerraDaily
China's internal economy is not yet large enough to prevent massive unemployment and significant economic turbulence in the middle kingdom, although government spending is being ratcheted up in an effort to "jump-start" the flagging economy. We have already seen how China's economic numbers are not to be trusted, and how important it is to look at underlying figures such as energy consumption -- which has dropped significantly along with exports and foreign investment.

China's amazing economic growth over the past two decades has been due largely to foreign investment and a booming export market. In a world recession such as the current Obama Depression, both foreign investment to China and Chinese exports to the outside world will necessarily decline.

China is not ready to take over as the world hegemonic power, despite the golden opportunity that the new US President Obama is providing. Certainly Russia will never fill that role. And Europe, after it feels the full impact of the Obama revolution, will be reeling for many decades and in no position to provide world leadership.

That suggests a type of co-hegemony between a weakening US, a weakening Europe, and a slowly strengthening China -- with intermittent attempts by Russia to re-capture its superpower status via energy blackmail and threats of resource wars. Such a state of the world is apt to be unstable -- particularly if Obama proceeds with his Carteresque unilateral disarmament plans.

The real world of idiocracy hates a power vacuum. As more and more distinct parts of the world become enveloped in power vacuums facilitated by Obama's amazing incompetence added to the simple fact that the US cannot afford to police the entire world any longer, more of the world will fall into anarchy and violence. All the wishful thinking of all the Obama Zombies in the world cannot prevent it.

In the long run, the US may discard the Obama rot and recover some of its lost vitality. And China, in the long run, is likely to internally generate more and more of its own prosperity. But the real hope for the long run is the real danger: revolutionary technologies and science. The djinn is out of the bottle, and no matter how much Obama wants to create a neat world order of corporate socialism controlled by himself and his cronies, the sheer power of the coming technologies combined with the natural independence and willfulness of the human mind, will not allow that static vision.

Buckle up for the ride. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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