IQ by Nation, IQ by Race US, IQ Inherited?
Comparisons of IQ scores between races in the US suggest a 4-way clustering of scores as pictured above. Each racial subgroup appears to present a different distribution -- with significant overlap. The Black - White gap in IQ scores (PDF) has been persistent over time, and across geographical space. Richard Nisbett and James Flynn have tried to make the claim that the heritable aspect of IQ is insignificant, and that Black - White gaps in IQ scores can be eliminated using educational interventions. Neither researcher has been able to make that argument without using a bit of sleight of hand with the data. In the end, the proof is in the scores. If you claim to be able to erase the gap, you should certainly prove your claim. It would be of vast benefit to mankind if that persistent gap could be erased by something as simple as better education. The evidence over time suggests otherwise. Something more will be needed.
The global IQ map above suggests that the multiple overlapping IQ distributions in the US population may simply reflect the broader global differences in IQ scores between regions. Certainly if the average Subsaharan African scored 120 on an IQ test, there would be much greater skepticism as to the direction of the Black - White gap as measured in US and Canadian populations.Why do social scientists such as Flynn and Nisbett go to such lengths to explain away the genetic basis of intelligence, when it should be clear to any well educated person that the best hopes for raising the intelligence of everyone is to get at the basis of human intelligence? There are no reputable intelligence researchers who claim that environment is not critically important in achieving optimal intelligence for all individuals. So why do so many researchers with leftist political sympathies keep trying to claim that the genes are not important in the laying down of every person's brain capacity?
Humanity is currently stuck in a quagmire of stupidity. The crisis is made much worse by political hucksters within academia, media, and government who appear determined to prevent science from understanding the core truths of human intellectual variability. If we allow political correctness to prevent us from learning how to improve everyone's intellectual capacity, we will have probably dealt a death blow to humanity's future.
Current demographic trends suggest that the average IQ of Earth's human population is descending steadily -- from near 90 currently to barely above 80 by 2050. The difference between an average IQ of 90 and an average of 80 is huge, societally speaking. Just as the difference between an average IQ of 100 and an average IQ of 90 is brutally significant in terms of societal outcome.
The zero population growth zealots have been incredibly successful -- within high IQ populations. High IQ populations of the Earth are no longer breeding to replacement rates, although low IQ populations (see map) are more than making up for the anti-natalist outlook of their brighter fellow Terrans. Which means the planetary population is growing, but the average human IQ is dropping. Not a great prospect, all in all.
The Earth can support a far larger human population than currently exists. But not if the average human IQ continues to drop. Unless -- unless the shrinking bright fraction of humans invents super - intelligent machines, before disappearing from the scene. If super - intelligent machines are around to watch out for the dysgenic population of Earth, it really doesn't matter how dumb people become. The machines can construct robots -- call them humanoids -- to watch over the humans, so that they do not hurt themselves or each other. Perhaps the humanoids could also watch over the great apes, to prevent them from all being eaten by humans, and their habitat turned into palm oil plantations.
Seriously, the current anti-scientific atmosphere of political correctness will make it very difficult to solve some of the more pressing problems of the planet. More and more of the planet's resources are being squandered on faux crises that just happen to fit the politically correct frame. The Nisbetts of the world are always hanging about, ready to reassure the PC dogmatists that they were right all along. By doing so, they postpone the hope of finding solutions to the really big problems.
Labels: demographic change, dysgenics, IQ, maps, population decline
posted by al fin at 5:27 pm
12 Comments:
Only two comments:
1. much of the data is 3 or 4 decades old
2. sample size seems VERY small
It has yet to be proven that intelligence has any survival value.
Arthur C. Clarke
Cole's Axiom: The sum of the intelligence on the planet is a constant.
The population is growing.
Hi Al Fin,
I think the equality meme's foundational position at the base of small-d democracy (and thus the profound consequences of disturbing it) is ultimately what pushes sociologists to look for equality in the wrong places.
I think a better place to look for a fundamental human equality is in the relationship between intellect and emotion. This leaves room for intellectual variation and may potentially unlock some of the answers you speak of.
I have begun to write on this, if you're interested.
The PDF linked in the article, 30 Years is a nice review of the topic.
The data is quite extensive over more than a century of study. As to the future of the intelligence of the planet, Bruce, just think of the whole world as one big Mexico or Zimbabwe, with 50 billion people. Is that an intelligent world?
Thanks for the link, Piercello. Your site appears to be quite thoughtful and worth a look.
I think you're exaggerating a bit here. Can IQ really drop 10 points in forty years? That's almost five times faster than was originalyl predicted in IQ and the Wealth of Nations and in the Bell Curve. Moreover, current fertility trends are similar to what we've seen for the last fifty years or so now; does that mean that in 1970 the global average IQ was around 98?
Good question, SC.
I said the world IQ in 2050 will be "barely above 80." The actual projection is around 82 to 84.
Current IQ is closer to 88 than 90. Precise figures are hard to come by.
When you are talking about IQs that low, the distinction between 88 and 90, or between 82 and 80 has little practical significance.
The key is understanding the astounding demographic transformation worldwide, beginning in the 1970s. The world average IQ has indeed dropped significantly since 1970, and will continue to drop toward the IQ average of the fastest breeding population.
Japan is shriveling away before our eyes. Russia is losing around 500,000 ethnic Russians a year. The same thing is happening to several western European countries.
Meanwhile birthrates among populations with average IQs between 70 and 85 continue quite high while western aid to the third world keeps much larger numbers of children alive to reproductive age.
Evolution can't change a planetary IQ that quickly, but demographic change can.
Salut!
"It has yet to be proven that intelligence has any survival value.
Arthur C. Clarke"
"People are different from other living beings by the fact,that know how oneself beguile, and can really believe their own lie."
Pole'
In lie contest won first place a person who speak the truth. Ave Liberty, Equality, Fraternity- what ever they mean.
Each will receive what He wants,
Each believe in what He want,
If not then better humanity is killed, than He does not receive the desired. Amen
Pardon'
All the best!
Another, more conservative point of view pertaining to world IQ trends can be found at http://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/IQ/1950-2050/
Their estimate is for world IQ to fall from roughly 89 at present to approximately 86 in 2050.
The direction of the trend is unmistakable. The only quibbling being done among informed observers is the rate of change.
Why is the hispanic curve so similar to the black curve? While there is some African contribution to the hispanic population, I thought that they were mostly a mix of European and natives (who would be closer to Asian than blacks).
Interesting comment, Baron. First, the Asian nomads who settled the Americas have undergone an incredible amount of selection pressure over the past 12,000 years. Indigenous Americans are not the same now as the Asians who set out over ten millenia ago.
And you are assuming that all Asian IQs are (and always have been) as high as modern East Asian IQs (Chinese, Japanese, Korean). We have no reason to expect that to be true.
Natural selection for survival in the jungle, altiplano, small villages, nomadic plains tribes, and raiding cultures without writing or technology etc, will yield a far different brain than natural selection for survival inside civilisations with writing, scholarship, widespread commerce, etc.
Evolution happens faster than we used to think.
Dr. Ian Deary and others have shown that IQ is often closely correlated (inversely) with disease mortality.
There are interesting correlations with worldwide geographic population IQs and health. Satoshi Kanazawa at the LSE had a paper showing that national IQs correlated with health/mortality.(Kanazawa S. Mind the gap... in intelligence: re-examining the relationship between inequality and health. Br J Health Psychol. 2006 Nov;11(Pt 4):623-42.PubMed PMID: 17032488)
Similar correlations are seen in the USA. Interestingly Native Americans (Hispanics and American Indians) tend to have lower mortality than would be predicted by their average IQs and socioeconomic levels (the Hispanic Health Paradox was discovered by Dr. Markides at U of Texas SanAntonio).
Dr. Frye at U of Pittsburgh posted his "Vagal Vigor" hypothesis at Nature Precedings. He shows correlations between ethnicity, IQ, socioeconomic status and health/mortality in California populations. The CHRM2 Vagal Vigor hypothesis posits that high IQ is often linked with high vagal tone due to a SNP in the CHRM2 gene. High vagal tone has salutary effects on health (by suppressing systemic inflammation). The correlations of average IQs versus socioeconomic status and health within ethnic groups in California closely mirror the correlations seen at the world wide level.
A pdf of Dr. Frye's paper (Cognitive epidemiology of ethnic health and the CHRM2 vagal vigour hypothesis) is available at-
http://precedings.nature.com/documents/2862/version/1/files/npre20092862-1.pdf
1. Average IQ is a nonsensical phrase. If you consider two people one of whom has an IQ of 70 and the other has an IQ of 140, the average IQ of the two will be 115. You can then strut around the world claiming that the 2 people group will definitely be poorer by another 2 person group whose members have an IQ of 110 each. That's nonsense.
2. We live in an average world. What that means is that people of average IQ should be able to win. And they do win. I mean look at your boss.
3. IQ tests have to be culture and language neutral. I'm very sure you knoe that comparing the numerical proficiency of college graduates and South African bushmen will give you very wild results.
4. IQ is over rated. It has not been conclusively proven that higher IQ translates into success for individuals. I do not see how it can then translate into higher success for groups.
5. I am a Kenyan African with a tested IQ of 160. I'm a mensan and scored 2320 on the American SAT as well as 760 on the GMAT. I'm not the smartest Kenyan. Infact, in a national college entry exam, I was ranked at position 5,319 out of 50,000 students. That doesn't agree with these "findings". How about that?
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