25 March 2009

Russia"s Backward Technology Base Is Crippling The Empire's Ambitious Future

One of the many reasons for the collapse of the USSR was the inability of the creaking Soviet empire to keep up with both the military and the civilian technologies of the western world. So, you would expect Vladimir Putin to do everything in his power to strengthen and diversify domestic investment in a broad range of Russian scientific and technological research, nicht wahr? Particularly if Putin was planning to present a belligerent face to the world, as in the recent invasion and occupation of Georgia.

But instead, Putin has alienated foreign investors -- including the foreign companies he needs to help maintain the rich Russian oil and gas fields -- and neglected domestic educational and research facilities. Russia's universities and large industries have been allowed to decline, and much of Russia's wealth as been dismantled and shipped to financial havens out of the country. And Russia's military? Russia's military is a rusting shell barely covering a core of corruption, disrepair, and demoralised incompetence.
...“the record to date of money being loaned by the state central budget to defense industry is not a happy one. Examples of some of all of this money being diverted into peoples’ pockets are well-known, so it is questionable if even half of this $56 billion will end up where it is supposed to.”

“Additionally, it is impossible to deny that some parts of Russian industry are no longer capable of producing a full-up weapon system and never will be able to again. Sooner or later Russia will end up importing weapons–instead of making them as they have done for decades. It is already easier all the time to import foreign components that are incorporated into Russian weapon platforms for the simple reason that there are no longer any Russian analogues to these components in production. Moving from this situation to importing whole, final-production weapon systems to Russia is not such a small step anymore.

When Chemezov created ROT and acquired control of almost every Russian industrial enterprise worth owning he looked as though his corporate behemoth had also acquired that “too big to fail” label that we are hearing so much about in the United States during the current world financial meltdown. But, just wishing does not make it so. No one can undo the almost 20 years of neglect and zero investment that Russian industry has suffered. No matter how much is done now failure in the defense sector seems about the only option and drinking the night away in Abu Dhabi instead of tending to business is only going to accelerate that decline. _WeeklyStandard_via_LaRussophobe
Russia is losing between 400,000 and 700,000 ethnic Russians a year -- via low birth rates and high death rates. Within a matter of mere decades there will not be enough ethnic Russians to defend most of Russia from being taken over by its neighbors -- including China (or whatever fragments of China are still functioning at that time). China is not allowing Russia to bluff it any longer. Unfortunately, Obama and his clowns are eminently bluffable. Unless the clowns are sent to the old clown's home soon, China would appear to be the winner of this three man Mexican standoff. Until China itself crumbles.

Then things begin to get very interesting, in a rather Idiocratic way of things.

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5 Comments:

Blogger Snake Oil Baron said...

It is an interesting subject to think about; what will replace Russia. China's median age is getting up there for a nation of its level of development. Not as bad as Russia's but high, and their Total fertility rate is being listed as 1.79 kids. No one knows if that would bounce up if the Commies got their noses out of people's bedrooms - I suspect it might not or at least, not fast enough. It might not be easy for China to get enough young, mobile people to colonize the ruins of Russia when better opportunities exist in the urban east coast and in other, warmer parts of Asia.

Pakistan, Afghanistan and sub-Saharan Africa are still producing humans at a fast (though possibly diminishing) rate though the first two are likely high in Tribal/Taliban folk. The Chinese might consider offering people who are willing to relocate from these regions some skills and language training programs with emphasis on skills that would be useful in resource based communities. Sort of an outsourced colonization of Russia.

The way Russia is going it could soon become a less popular destination for immigrants than those among her southern neighbors whose total fertility rates are also below replacement level but have the advantage of not being run directly by Putin. Russia may actually lose Muslim minorities (at least the younger mobile ones) to nations like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan which have higher Muslim populations and are not as close to spiraling into ruin. But that's all just speculation on my part.

Wednesday, 25 March, 2009  
Blogger Snake Oil Baron said...

It seems that even Russians don't want to be part of Russia anymore.

They have been having to move Moscow police out to put down protesters in the wast because local cops don't want to do it.

Somewhat off topic, I heard that China gave its military a massive pay raise, supposedly for their good work on the Olympic security but hypothesized by some to be loyalty compensation for all the unrest they are called on to suppress in the rural areas.

It all makes me wonder if a large part of Asia is going to be in the news soon. There is a theory that wars and revolutions are caused by youth bulges and Russia and China don't really seem to qualify the way that Pakistan and Yemen and Somalia do but maybe, instead of being ripe for revolution, the area is ripe for another collapse - maybe a wide reaching one.

I certainly am in a speculative mode tonight.

Wednesday, 25 March, 2009  
Blogger kurt9 said...

Since Russia is so undesirable place to live (due to cold climate) and even the Islamic neighbors are of declining birthrate, might it not be possible that Russia will simply become an underpopulated wasteland? With the exception of a few Chinese owned and operated mines, I don't see any large scale migration into Russia by non-Russian people. The place is simply too cold and unpleasant to live in.

Thursday, 26 March, 2009  
Blogger Eshenberg said...

Sveiki!
The same sub-Saharn Africans and other Muslim country persons,probably not only replace Russians,but the same China(later) and many other countries in(Europa,east Asia and Anglosphere speaking persons :)
Yes but fertility in west world country "native" population are couple decades so low, bye bye old Japan! Hello new "Madagascar" or "Indonesia" ;)
RussiaToday says it's OK in Russia:) Comrade You have lost Your believe in MEDIA,
Pardon'

All the best!

Thursday, 26 March, 2009  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The difference in resources and ability of the natives in China, Europe, Japan and USoA is enough to allow even after a collapse to take care of all of the Yemeni, Saudis, and Pakistani.

If the governments fall and are unable to fullfill their duties, someone will rise and take their place. Technological progress will help them. Capitalism will propel them. And without heavy taxation, natives will start to procreate and multiply and take space from the Pakis and others.

Nations like Pakistan are increasinly dependent on the West for their economy. Their population could grow now, but if the economy go belly up, they will starve. And starving women are not so much fertile.

Thursday, 26 March, 2009  

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