12 March 2009

Peak Oil? 2008 New Oil Production Record

Instead of declining, oil production set a new record yet again in 2008 -- despite the drop in prices and voluntary "production cuts" by OPEC members. It seems that the more eager Peak Oil fanatics are to see oil production decline, the higher production gets.
My current conjecture is that oil will never peak as long as Ken Deffeyes is making predictions. That's how truly rank his predictions are. But whenever Ken finally shuts up and oil actually peaks, it's not going to be Ken who is proven right. We're all going to be proven right. Me, Mike Lynch, Daniel Yergin, CERA... literally everyone (aside from the mentally retarded) concedes that oil will peak. So on that glorious day when we're all proven right, I say we all go out for a rousing mutual backslap and group hug!

More broadly, we should note that Ken, like many peak oilers, has been trying to stack the deck by restricting his prediction to conventional crude. The reality is that Ken's "peak" is being swamped by flows of unconventional liquids such as tar sands and (most importantly) NGL, as you can see in the IEA figures for total liquids:

A while back, Ken liked to talk about the "Cornucopian Cemetery", where cornucopians go when they admit that oil has already peaked. We have a similar feature here at Peak Oil Debunked. I call it the Peak Oil Prophet's cemetery. It's where you go after your 9th incompetent prediction of the peak oil date craps out. _PeakOilDebunked
Read the whole thing at the link above, and check out the other posts at POD. Among the badly educated and thoroughly indoctrinated teeming masses of mediocre minds, peak oil and global warming are taken very seriously. Obama is a fitting Messiah for such dysfunctional lobotomised hordes. Smarter folks weigh the evidence and come to their own conclusions.


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Blogger neil craig said...

Peak conventional oilfield oil & peak oil are not the same. A century & a holf ago we hit peak oil from conventional sources - the conventional source at the time being whales.

From what you have reported on bio-fuels, particularly modified algae, there is no potential supply peak (well not till the entire sea surface is covered with algae ponds). This is how progress normally moves - from "natural" supplies to manmade & why our meat doesn't come from mammoths.

Friday, 13 March, 2009  
Blogger al fin said...

True enough.

Over time, liquid hydrocarbons will make up less and less of total human energy expenditures.

Peak oil will occur when humans move from liquid hydrocarbons to better energy sources. Oil production will collapse when humans abandon the then-obsolete energy source.

Friday, 13 March, 2009  

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