13 March 2009

Obama Depression, Soon Obama Dark Age?

An electromagnetic pulse starts with a short, intense burst of gamma rays produced from nuclear detonation. The gamma rays interact with the atoms in air molecules through a process called the Compton effect, wherein electrons are scattered at high energies, thus ionizing the atmosphere and generating a powerful electrical field. The strength of the EMP depends highly on the altitude at which it is released. At altitudes above 30,000m, it is the strongest. It is also significant at surface or low altitude bursts, but is not as effective between the two extremes. _EMPTerror
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Modern societies base much of their economies and affluence on the ability to manipulate electricity. Each American has the equivalent of dozens of "energy slaves" working for him. How easy would it be for an antagonist to turn off the power -- to a town, to a region, to a nation, to a continent?

This posting deals with EMP - electromagnetic pulse. EMP is a side effect of the detonation of a nuclear weapon, but it can also be produced by conventional methods. The "lights out" effect of a nuclear detonation can travel well over a thousand miles -- effectively transporting large areas of a continent into a "dark age".

All modern societies that are reliant upon plentiful electricity for their way of life are vulnerable. Research into portable, conventional EMP weapons, has produced effective emp's from hand grenade size weapons.
"They" are electro-magnetic grenades -- not something you'll find in the typical armory but apparently something that could soon be in the hands of GIs.

"EMP grenade technology is out there, but I've never had my hands on one," said Col. Laurie Buckhout, chief of the newly formed Electronic Warfare Division, Army Operations, Readiness and Mobilization, during a bloggers roundtable Tuesday from the Pentagon. _DefenseTech_via_NextBigFuture
It seems that such light-weight electromagnetic radiation burst weapons are available that are capable of knocking out the power for a college campus, a small town, or a central part of Washington DC. Larger weapons, that could knock out power for large cities and entire states or provinces, would be easier to produce. But they require transport by truck, rail, barge, or ship. These are conventional EMP weapons, not detectable by radiation or hazmat detectors. Your next-door neighbor may be storing one in his garage. (:-0

The US could be knocked backward into a quasi-dark age in just a few seconds. Orbiting nuclear weapons, for example, could detonate in space without killing anyone on the surface via blast effect, radiation, thermal effects, or radioactive fallout. The EMP from the detonations would knock out power on the ground, and destroy scores of sensitive communications satellites in orbit. Airplanes and helicopters would drop like hail from the sky. Large bloody pile-ups would occur on countless freeways. Trains would crash into each other without warning. Hospital power supplies and backup power would fail, and many patients would die. Thousands would be stuck between floors on elevators, that for some would become their tombs. Trillions of dollars of electronic wealth would vanish in a flash.

It is difficult for most psychologically neotenous, academically lobotomised incompetent perpetual adolescents to come to grips with a nation where all cities are simultaneously rendered powerless. Where almost all emergency services and law enforcement services were suddenly helpless.

The online novel, Lights Out, is one man's look at a community in middle America trying to survive after such a surprise EMP attack. Or check out this blurb about a similar book in the stores:
New York Times best selling author William R. Forstchen now brings us a story which can be all too terrifyingly real...a story in which one man struggles to save his family and his small North Carolina town after America loses a war, in one second, a war that will send America back to the Dark Ages...A war based upon a weapon, an Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP). A weapon that may already be in the hands of our enemies. _Macmillan
Go here for a longer excerpt.

We are at multiple points of bifurcation. The world we know could cease to exist in the blink of an eye, with another -- much harsher -- world taking its place. Such a rapid transition could happen many different ways, but there are only a few ways a society could recover from such transitions. The best way to recover is to have been prepared ahead of time.

EMP is only one easy way for an antagonist to finish off an Obama-weakened US. There are multiple biological, chemical, nuclear (dirty bomb) -- and soon nanotechnological -- ways to knock America flat on its back. And this America is not the same country that bounced back from the 1930s/1940s depression.

Modern america is split into tribes warring among themselves. Many of the newer American tribes are fresh from the third world, with no idea how to run a technological society, and no allegiances to the rule of law or the US Constitution.

America is still rich, still powerful despite its economic problems and current run of bad governmental decision-making. But America and all the western nations, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc. are all extremely vulnerable to the new would-be hegemons and would-be world caliphates. Weapons that could separate the thin threads that bind western societies together are becoming less expensive and more widely available.

Much more on the EMP threat

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

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4 Comments:

Blogger Loren said...

http://www.tboverse.us/HPCAFORUM/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=312

Keep in mind that this only applies to nuclear EMP through Compton scattering.

Friday, 13 March, 2009  
Blogger Stopped Clock said...

I assume what you're saying that an EM pulse will destroy electricity itself, so that even battery-powered appliances and generators won't work? Not to mention automobiles?

Because we've had long power outages in America and not really suffered any great loss of life. A nationwide one would be very difficult, and probably lead to a crime wave, but it wouldn't kill us unless you're saying that even the generators would fail.

Friday, 13 March, 2009  
Blogger al fin said...

Electronics equipment is particularly vulnerable, but there is also this:
There is also a so called 'late-time EMP effect.' This refers to the observations of EMPs creating localized magnetic fields within electrical systems they pass through that soon collapse sending huge surges through power and telecommunication infrastructure. This sparks a chain reaction in which all devices attached to these lines will be rendered useless by the massive surge.

If the EMP comes from an orbital nuclear detonation, most unshielded communications satellites within range of the pulse could go down. On the ground, the entire continental US could be affected. All at the same time. Think about the worst predictions for Y2K and multiply them by 1,000. That's right, that would be Y2M.

Fiberoptics cables would remain intact, fortunately. Much of the rest of the communications infrastructure would have to be re-built -- unless specially shielded from the pulse and powerline effects.

Friday, 13 March, 2009  
Blogger al fin said...

Loren: Thanks for the link. Interesting that the piece was written by Dr. Samuel Johnson in 1778. A most "precocious" gentleman indeed.

Seriously, though, the article makes quite a number of assumptions that could easily undermine his casual attitude.

He is discussing effects on hardened military equipment, or military equipment that can sense an EMP and shut itself off as a precaution. This blog discussion is about civilian damage and casualties.

In addition, "Stuart Slade" is assuming a single nuclear detonation (bad assumption) within certain design parameters (bad assumption) within a certain yield (bad assumption).

Non-nuclear EMP devices are being customised to maximise the damage for particular types of equipment. Nuclear devices can be paired with special devices that prolong and amplify the gamma ray effect, or multiple detonations can be chained temporally.

Devices can be detonated in orbit or within aerial vehicles or UAVs orbiting less than ten thousand feet above a particular target, or nearer ground level for targets of high value (difficult to replace).

The likelihood that a modern EMP attack would fall within the "safe" parameters assumed in this article depend entirely on whether the attackers have IQs greater than their shoe size.

The problem with EMP is that it can further cripple a nation already at a disadvantage from bad government. A dirty nuclear bomb, or a dozen, or a hundred dirty bombs, could devastate a country's developed infrastructure -- making trillions of dollars of housing, commercial, and industrial areas off limits for more than a lifetime.

Imagine a combined EMP and dirty bomb attack over Washington DC. Not only would the city have to be evacuated for a very long time, but few vehicles would work, and few people would be able to receive communications for coordinating an evacuation.

Friday, 13 March, 2009  

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