2010 - - Good-Bye: USA Hello: Split America

This is the way the US is supposed to split around the year 2010. As you can see, every part of the former USA will soon be under the control of other nations -- including Mexico, Canada, the EU, Russia, China, and perhaps Japan. Oddly, Cuba did not end up with southern Florida, which by all rights it should possess after such a split.

This remarkable prediction is being made by a former KGB analyst, and current professor and dean of Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for foreign diplomats. It is not the first prediction of a violent split-up of various parts of the US, nor will it be the last. It is only remarkable due to the seriousness with which it is being taken inside Russia.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

...The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin. _WSJ

A lot of the details of the coming split remain to be worked out. For example, what happens to US military bases, ships, planes, submarines, and other hardware? What would make a sane and intelligent person believe that such a catastrophic dissolution of the world's largest economy would leave the rest of the world in any position to step in and "pick up the pieces?"

I would certainly not deny the possiblity of such a breakup. It would occur over a much longer time span than one and a half years, and would involve a great deal more collateral damage among the other great and small powers of the world than Panarin appears to comprehend.

The divisions suggested by Panarin appear unlikely in the extreme. A more likely graphic of a post-breakup USA can be found at this PDF document, Civil War II. In other words, a breakup along ethnic lines appears more realistic than Panarin's scenario, probably occurring in connection with a worldwide violent conflagration that results in the breakup of most other large nations and unions of nations, including China, Russia, the EU, and probably Mexico and other Latin American nations.

As long as the world-scale violence leaves significant areas of reasonably intact areas of production and education in advanced nations, the resulting regional states, or even city-states would likely re-establish trade routes and maintain as large a "zone of order" as they could manage under the circumstances. Piracy and lawlessness would be severe across most of the world, of course. Any recent graduates of North American university social science departments would likely find themselves enslaved or killed, unless they were lucky enough to find themselves inside a surviving enclave of much maligned western civilisation. Feminists would probably be fed to gasification plants to provide biofuels, a la Oynklent Green [OTC:OYNK].

The world has never been so broadly civilised as it is today. And, of course, it cannot last. The internal schisms within civilisation are simply too great. But there are some regions that are more likely to survive relatively intact than others. I am happy to report that there is still time for most of you to locate some of these regions, and to learn how to make yourself useful and competent enough to survive. It's your time. Don't waste it.

H/T Dennis Mangan and Half Sigma