Watts Up With That Scores Hottest Climate Post
Anthony Watts' important and highly popular climate blog "Watts Up With That" has posted a fascinating and explosive guest article from Bill Illis that looks at global temperatures after adjusting for the ocean oscillations ENSO and AMO. Bill's analysis clearly shows that after adjusting for the temperature variation caused by ocean oscillations, there is very little "climate change" signature left.The greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 follows a logarithmic curve with CO2 concentration. As CO2 levels continue to rise, the greenhouse temperature boost from CO2 flattens out. Far from being a "tipping point" the climate effects from rising CO2 fade out.
So that what we continue to see is a progressive divergence of climate models away from the observed temperature readings.The sun drives the ocean oscillations. Ocean oscillations plus water vapour/cloud effects then drive Earth's climate. CO2 has only a marginal effect. The Earth is currently undergoing a cooling phase.
Too bad the US just elected a batch of carbon hysterics who are poised to take the US economy to the blood baths. Oh well. Perhaps Canada, Europe, and New Zealand will escape some of the self-inflicted slaughter to be perpetrated by alarmist climate orthodoxers. We know that India, China, and Russia will not submit themselves to the idiotic carbon hysteria religion of self-flagellation.
Labels: climate cycles
posted by al fin at 9:10 pm
4 Comments:
"The sun drives the ocean oscillations. Ocean oscillations plus water vapour/cloud effects then drive Earth's climate. CO2 has only a marginal effect. The Earth is currently undergoing a cooling phase."
To be inscribed in stone in siutable very prominet public places.
As several comments to the WUWT post have noted, Bill Illis has assumed that the residual warming, after subtracting the ENSO/AMO signal, is caused by the increase in CO2. But if the warming is natural (solar induced) and the warming caused the CO2 increase (ocean offgassing), Illis is describing an effect, not a cause.
Yes, jblethen, Illis had to make some assumptions. Most climate scientists, whether skeptics or alarmists, assume that CO2 has a warming effect. Illis' work demonstrates limits on the CO2 warming, which is important in understanding the practical limits (the futility) of carbon caps, taxes, and the like.
As you know, the solar influence on climate is very much involved in the ENSO/AMO effect, and quite possibly also via other effects such as a magnetic conduit, solar wind variability, cosmic ray cloud seeding during low solar activity part of cycle, etc. etc.
It's impossible to separate the solar forcing from the other observations. I agree that a good part of the observed CO2 increase could be due to solar warming of the oceans, but then one would expect CO2 levels to start dipping again eventually as the oceans cool.
I like your blog, BTW.
Thanks. "One would expect CO2 levels to start dipping again eventually as the oceans cool." Check this out.
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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell
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