Islam in Europe
Europe is said to be a dying continent. Europeans are breeding--in some countries--at approximately half of replacement rate. Meanwhile, new immigrants are largely uneducated and unassimilated, from different cultures and religions (mostly Muslim) than Europe is accustomed to. Within the century, given current trends, large swathes of Europe will be Muslim.It is obvious to intelligent people that unassimilated immigrants, particularly those of a militant nature, tend to have an influence over the population out of all proportion to their actual numbers, particularly where violent, unassimilated sub-populations settle in cities where much of the business of the country is carried out. When well-intentioned reverse discrimination against majority populations begins to drive indigenous majorities to emigrate away from Europe, one should understand that the problem is already critical.
Blogger Kantor, at Social Equilibrium blog, demonstrates the results of his Kantor Web spreadsheet created to look at this issue.
The following hypotheses are done in all the scenarios:
1) Muslim and non-muslim populations are supposed totally separated, ignoring conversion and inter-marriage. In fact, this paper proves (for the Austrian case) the high level of separation between the two populations.
2) Fertility structure is given by the convex model (see Demo-tool readme)
3) The age structure of the European population in 2005 is extrapolated from the Netherlands. Also its mortality curve.
4) The European Muslim population in 2005 is supposed to be 8% of total; its age structure and fertility is extrapolated from the Algerian population (UN stats), whose fertility (of 2.38 children/woman) is taken as Muslim fertility in 2005.
5) The European non-muslim population is the 92% of total EU population of 463 millions (425 million aproxx); its fertility in 2005 was 1.52 children/woman (European Comission).
6) For migration flows, the Eurostat statistical Yearbook (pag.53) quantifies total net immigration in the EU-15 in 1.5 million/year (2002). We suppose that 400.000 immigrants are from the New EU countries (EU-10), leaving a net inflow into the EU of 1.1 million. Our hypothesis is that 60% of those immigrants are Muslim.
The three scenarios differ are about the fertility paths of both populations and the migration flows received.
1) Business as usual (with migration): fertility is locked in its 2005 levels (Muslim 2.38, non Muslim 1.52) for the whole century. Europe receives 1.5 million immigrants a year, 60% Muslims, for the rest of the century.
2) Business as usual (without migration): fertility is locked in its 2005 levels (Muslim 2.38, non Muslim 1.52) for the whole century. Migration is halted in 2005.
3) Linear convergence 2030 (with migration): Fertility moves linearly for both populations, converging to 2 children per woman in 2030. Europe receives 1.5 million immigrants a year, 60% Muslims, for the rest of the century.
4) Linear convergence 2030 (without migration): Fertility moves linearly for both populations, converging to 2 children per woman in 2030. Migration is halted in 2005.____SocialEquilibrium___via_HiberniaGirl
Read Kantor's entire article to fully understand how he produced his population scenarios graph (pictured above).
It is my opinion that Kantor underestimated the rate of Muslim population increase--perhaps out of a desire to use the most conservative assumptions. Since it is unlikely that Europe will halt immigration, we can expect immigration to accelerate, due to the natural aging of the European population. Muslim immigration into Europe will accelerate more quickly than Eastern European immigration, due to larger birthrates and excess youth populations in Muslim countries, along with far inferior prospects for advancement in Muslim countries, and the tendency of Muslim youth in Europe to send away for multiple wives (often cousins) from the old country. It is no problem for the Muslim youth to support these wives, since he will simply place each one on welfare. As European countries tolerate polygamy with its accelerated muslim population growth (far above Kantor's assumptions), the path to dhimmitude lies clear.
In a parliamentary government, it is not necessary for a group to attain an absolute majority in order to be the controlling power. It is only necessary to dominate a controlling coalition. The natural coalition partners for Islamic and Islamist political parties within Europe are the leftist political parties of Europe. If leftists believe that they will be able to dominate their Muslim political parties, they will have an interesting education ahead of them.
If a sizable population group is also a group known for violent intimidation, the attainment of influence far out of proportion to the group's size comes much more quickly along the growth curve. Consolidation of power continues to occur as the growth curve is climbed.
Update: Read this interesting AsiaTimes article on Geert Wilder's lonely struggle against the Muslim conquest of Holland. Given the Dutch government's willingness to surrender Holland to the invaders, Wilder's stubborn defense of his homeland appears all the more heroic.
Labels: european decline, immigration, Islam
posted by al fin at 2:13 pm
3 Comments:
I disagree. My crystal ball and tea leaves reveal falling birth rates in North African, Middle Eastern and European immigrant communities. The spirits also tell me that accelerating Christian missionary work, Arabic and Turkish language satellite broadcasts of Christian (not to mention secular) TV channels, and more organized and outspoken apostate communities will continue to split Muslim populations between the fanatical (i.e. easily exposed and lacking credibility outside of their circle of socialist supporters) and the disillusioned. Recent news articles about spreading secular and anti-religious sentiment among the youth of Iraq, Iran and other Islamic nations makes me think that these familiars may be on to something.
My neighborhood soothsayer foretells that the gradual removal of trade barriers and privatization in the Middle East/North Africa region will, over the century, lower unemployment and decrease the incentive to go north to ghettos filled with car burning zealots to face growing European distrust. She also says (soothfully) that advanced artificial intelligences will use superior translation skills, psychological knowledge, and superhuman patients to argue theology and apologetics on blogs and in chat rooms. Young people can often be as impressionable to well explained logic from a patient listener as they can from other influences.
My sources may not be the best but there are more than enough examples of demographic trends which veered from the projected path for me to feel pretty comfortable with my assessment.
If I am wrong, I will buy you a Coke at the end of the century.
Interesting, Baron. But in reality, you have to look at underlying causation behind expected trends.
For example, why would third world unassimilated wives, fresh from the old country, financed by welfare payments representing untold riches to a third worlder, under tremendous pressure from husbands, families, and religious leaders to procreate--why would they risk death by honour killing or divorce and deportation, by refusing to bear children? Not likely, I should think.
Demographic trends for a muslim takeover of Europe should begin to "veer" just about the time the conquest is complete.
By then, most of what was Western Europe will be in the widespread Anglosphere, in Switzerland, Denmark, perhaps India, parts of Eastern Europe, Israel, and South America.
There is what is possible, and then there is what is likely.
If you have time, Baron, you might want to follow the links at the beginning of Kantor's posting at his website. Basic human behaviour and motivation have been very resistant to change over the tens of thousands of years we have been around.
Al Fin, there is another reason that rates of immigration into Europe are likely to increase. As the muslim/immigrant population and the population of their immediate descendants rises, they have more power to vote for more immigration for their countrymen and relatives. Thus you get a positive feedback loop. More muslims= more muslim immigrants= more muslims and so on..
Muslims, combined with leftist politicians already have the power to prevent immigration reductions in some countries, and in time they will have the power to demand and receive immigration increases.
The US faces the same thing. The window for the US reducing low-IQ immigration is closing fast as the hispanic voter population rises. In time they will probably be able to demand and receive amnesty for illegals (assuming we immigration reform patriots don't let it happen for a while) and immigration increases as a core part of the dominant democratic party.
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