19 July 2010

Crude Oil Has Already Peaked!

...crude oil itself has already peaked – at least five times since 1950, Prof. Boyce says – without beginning to approach the demise of oil anticipated by peak oil theory’s famous Bell curve. Indeed, crude oil reserves have doubled roughly every 15 years since 1850 and the world now has more proven reserves than it has ever had in the ensuing 150 years. _CTV
Crude oil may just peak a few more times before humans discard oil in favour of better sources of energy. Oil production is responsive to price signals, although oil producers will watch the price curves closely, to be sure that a rise in prices will last long enough to justify a ramp-up in production. The ephemeral rise in oil prices in the summer of 2008 clearly did not last long enough to justify a full-scale build-up in production.
THERE is only one rule when it comes to the availability of oil: experts are always convinced it will run out – but it never seems to. Brent crude is now at close to $75 a barrel, which is high but hardly excessively so by historical standards....

But one thing is clear: the peak oil theorists, who constantly predict that prices are about to explode, keep on getting it wrong but are never sufficiently held to account by a gullible media. As Mark Perry, a professor at the University of Michigan, reminds us, it was five years ago that Houston-based Matthew Simmons (a leading peak oil man) and the unusually sensible New York Times columnist John Tierney bet $5,000 on the price of oil. The wager was based on the average daily price for 2010, adjusted for inflation. If the inflation-adjusted oil price averages $200 or more, Simmons wins $10,000, and if the average price this year is less than $200, Tierney wins. As Perry points out, average oil prices this year won't even be anywhere close to $100, and will probably average less than $70, far below the $200 price predicted by Simmons. Only a total catastrophe would ensure the price would average $330 per barrel for the rest of 2010 – which is what would be needed for Simmons to win his bet. He will have to hand the cash over and eat humble pie. _CityAM
Matt Simmons is just one of the grifters who has latched on to the gullible mass of believers in Peak Oil Doom. Losing $5,000 in a bet is unlikely to discourage Matt, since he probably cons a lot more than that from his credulous disciples every week.

If you are a doomer, you have to ask yourself the question: "If I am wrong about this doom business, how much am I hurting myself, my family, and our future prospects for happiness and prosperity?" Most doomers just get off on the doom, and don't really care about the opportunity costs. Some of them want to starve the world of energy, so that the human population will be reduced by 50% to 90% from its current numbers (the "dieoff"). But there are likely to be some doomers who eventually get tired of the echo choirs, the genocidal undertones, and the role-playing.
The notion that the world is approaching "Peak Oil" is just not supported by the facts. We may still be getting closer to a peak, but the world has far more untapped oil than anyone could have imagined 10 years ago. _StreetAuthority
There is nothing new about the idea of an energy crisis. Back in Elizabethan times, England suffered from "peak wood." There have been peaks in production -- multiple peaks -- for anything that humans have ever used for energy. More peaks will certainly come and go. But the only form of "peak energy" that could be semi-permanent, is the type of "peak energy" that has come to North Korea -- "political peak energy."

In America, insightful persons might well ask: "Who needs peak oil when we've got Obama Pelosi?" They are referring to the energy starvation policies of the Obama Pelosi regime, which intends to bankrupt coal and oil companies -- and would like to do the same to gas and nuclear companies, if they could devise the proper excuse.

Energy is the life's blood of an advanced society. Persons who intentionally set about to disrupt or shut down a society's energy supply, are essentially committing genocide. Voters should consider that when they go to the polls.

From an earlier post at Al Fin Energy

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Blogger Max said...

yep thats pretty much conclusion I reached as well, One of the most realistic scenarios when oil peaks indeed is switch to other energy sources at which point the price of oil drops dramatically

and realistic alternative in terms of essentially unlimited energy with breeder reactors been there since 50s

Though I think "doom" scenarios are still possible and mostly stem from combination of factors making short term resource shortage unbearable and resulting in large scale conflict (3d world war).

I know you dont believe in GW, but regardless I think the environmental impact we done so far and keep doing is unsustainable .
Resulting deforestation, fisheries extinction, water shortages ,soil erosion , will lead to global shortages of previously unseen scale . All bets are off what that will entail .

What puzzle me with obviously smart bloggers like you is pro corporate bias. Corporations (oil ,coal etc) are not your friends. Their sole purpose of existence are short term quarterly numbers. Its not because they are consciously evil- its just their own nature, they will devour everything they can devour excreting only pile of colored paper and stock quotes.

Monday, 19 July, 2010  
Blogger al fin said...

Our minds are biased to see more of certain things than actually exist in the real world. People who read and watch a lot of crime dramas and thrillers will see more crime in the shadows as a result.

The same with environmental devastation. If you want to see environmental devastation, go to China, India, North Korea, and parts of the former USSR.

That is not generally corporate devastation, that is typical sovereign national government devastation.

A corporation is an economic collective. It is a form of organising to reach an economic end. Corporations operate under the laws and regulations of the nations in which they are located.

Private corporations are far more responsible toward the environment in general than nationalised oil companies, coal companies, etc.

Once an economic enterprise reaches a certain size, something like a corporation is bound to arise. Whether you call it a "pristine environmental utopian activist collective" or a "corporation" doesn't really matter.

If it is a private organisation it must act within the laws and regulations of the nation in which it is located.

The carbon hysteria of the warmist alarmists is very irrational, based upon unscientific premises, which leads to huge scams in world markets and world politics. The orthodoxy of climate catastrophe hysteria does not help the environment, in fact it likely does far more harm to the environment than the corporations which the orthodoxy loves to hate.

If you look closely and honestly enough at the issue for a long enough time, I would expect you eventually to realise the truth of what I assert.

Monday, 19 July, 2010  
Blogger Max said...

The same with environmental devastation. If you want to see environmental devastation, go to China, India, North Korea, and parts of the former USSR.

being from former USSR I can certainly agree that government based environmental abuse can be even worse.

If it is a private organisation it must act within the laws and regulations of the nation in which it is located.

Yes. And corporations try all they can trough lobbying so laws and regulation affect them the least. They all about internalizing the profits and externalizing the costs.

They also try to monopolize the markets, so they dont have to compete and innovate. They often use lobbyists to achieve that end trough government enforcement

It is after all most profitable model

Government and corporations are 2 sides of same coin. Greed at all costs and trough all means

Private corporations are far more responsible toward the environment in general than nationalised oil companies, coal companies, etc.

That might be true , but it still does not make them good. At best lesser of two evils . Coal corporations should been extinct if it was for sensibility of energy generation. Yet it was the coal/oil lobby which resulted in current environment regulation which heavily penalizes nuclear energy while at same time leave coal run pretty much free. Did you know that coal power plant excretes more nuclear waste straight into the air than nuclear plant?

Monday, 19 July, 2010  
Blogger gtg723y said...

Money is the oil to the machine of our society. We each play an essential part in the machine, in America we get some choice in what part we get to play. The more people you help the more money you get and the higher your standard of living becomes. The problem is politicians trying to artificially raise their standard of living with out contributing to society as a whole, i.e. passing laws for kick backs.

Tuesday, 20 July, 2010  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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