30 May 2008

Geoengineering the Next Ice Age

Climate is a cyclic phenomenon. We know that the Earth goes through long glacial ice ages punctuated by much shorter, warmer inter-glacial periods such as the one we are presently enjoying. Orthodox believers in the holy warmer religion, CAGW, believe strongly that our current inter-glacial is already too warm, and in danger of becoming even warmer--all because of human influence on climate. So what do they want to do? They want to magnify the human influence on climate beyond all belief. Do you think they have heard of "unintended consequences?"
In the new climate modeling study, which appears in the May 27-30 early online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Bala and his colleagues Karl Taylor and Philip Duffy demonstrate that the sunshade geoengineering scheme could slow down the global water cycle.

The sunshade schemes include placing reflectors in space (found to be extremely costly), injecting sulfate or other reflective particles into the stratosphere to emulate the effect of a massive volcanic eruption (found to be dangerous to the water cycle and could destroy the ozone layer), or enhancing the reflectivity of clouds by injecting cloud condensation nuclei in the troposphere. When CO2 is doubled as predicted in the future, a 2 percent reduction in sunlight is sufficient to counter the surface warming.

...While the surface temperature response is the same for CO2 and solar forcings, the rainfall response can be very different. The team found that while climate sensitivity can be the same for different forcing mechanisms, the hydrological sensitivity is very different. The global mean rainfall increased approximately 4 percent for a doubling of CO2 and decreases by 6 percent for a reduction in sunlight in his modeling study. _Biopact
The study referred to here was based on a computer model. Understanding the limitations of computer models, we skeptical few must wonder why anyone would contemplate shutting down Earth's sunlight based upon such a "study." Even worse, the study's authors seem to be extremely confused about what they are trying to accomplish.

According to greenhouse theory, it is the increase of water vapour in the atmosphere that causes most of the runaway greenhouse positive feedback effect from the anthropogenic CO2 trigger. It seems that in such a case you would want to trigger more rainfall--to remove the water vapour from the atmosphere. According to the model, reducing sunlight would significantly reduce rainfall. Not what you would want at all.

The sun is already at an atypically low point in its cycle as it is. Solar scientists are anxiously watching to try to discover why their predictions for a hyper-active new solar cycle have been so abysmally wrong--or at least remarkably delayed. Proposing to further reduce the solar influence on Earth at this time appears incredibly naive and ideologically driven.

The difference between a glacial ice age and an inter-glacial period is not well understood. It is not actually known what would be required to trigger the next glaciation. The type of reduction in solar radiation impacting Earth that is being proposed appears to fall within the range of possible glaciation triggers. What type of carbon hysteria would cause scientists to propose such bold measures to counteract something that is not even a crisis--and is unlikely ever to become one?

The problem with grand geoengineering schemes, is that they are far more likely to generate unpredictable and unwelcome results, than to create the "perfect climate" that so many neo-utopian environmentalists of the PN/AL (psychologically neotenised / academically lobotomised) generation seem to expect as their due. What is needed is a movement back toward science and away from ideology.

Even "the new Al Gore" should be able to understand that.

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Blogger Bruce Hall said...

The beginnings of the end of the global warming hysteria are already evident. Politicians may be the last to jump off the bandwagon, but the last ten years of cooling has convinced many that the GW message had as much credibility as the "new ice age" message of the 60s and 70s.

The scheme to artificially cool the earth is just another pipe dream that will have no chance in hell of becoming a reality. Just look at Europe and the backpedaling the politicians are doing there because of energy prices. Can you imagine trying to get a scheme that could potentially increase heating requirements on top of the artificially created energy shortages?

Friday, 30 May, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Cooling the Earth would kill a lot more people than a continuation of pre-1998 warming would have done.

I am hoping that David Archibald is wrong about the extended solar minimum coming up. Even if he is only half right, a lot of people will suffer from the cold weather and shorter growing seasons.

Friday, 30 May, 2008  
Blogger Audacious Epigone said...

"holy warmer religion"

Hehehe, an AF original? I hope you don't mind me filching it for casual conversation (I'll probably just use the descriptor "holy warmers").

Wednesday, 04 June, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

I believe it is an Al Fin original at least in this context.

Coining phrases is a secret vice.

Friday, 06 June, 2008  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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