MicroArrays in Research: A Silent Revolution

A Micro-array is a potent tool of biological discovery, first used to study genetic variation, and now rapidly being adapted to a wide range of biochemical research. Briefly, micro-arrays incorporate a large number of biochemical probes onto a single chip, to allow up to thousands of simultaneous tests to be performed at once. Since humans are unable to process such large amounts of data quickly, micro-array data is processed by special "bio-informatics" data analysis packages. These tools together are driving a revolutionary change in what is possible to learn about complex biological systems.

Take embryonic stem cells (ESCs). Until recently, no one understood how ESCs could maintain the potential to develop into any cell type in the body. Recently, Israeli scientists used micro-arrays to track gene expression of ESCs as they developed into specialised cell types. They learned that ESCs must undergo complex patters of gene silencing to become particular types of cells and tissues.

Other scientists are using micro-arrays to track complex protein cell signaling pathways. Researchers at UT Austin have developed a microarray for testing proteins in saliva--for rapid, noninvasive diagnosis of heart attacks.

Scientists at Invitrogen Corp (NASDAQ:IVGN), have developed a micro-RNA (miRNA) microarray to test for the presence of the short RNA sequences that can influence tumour formation--as an early test for cancer, or even cancer potential.

Scientists in New York and Wisconsin may have stumbled upon a completely new approach to understanding Alzheimer's disease based upon results from microarrays looking at gene expression in the brains of specially bred mice and flies.

Scientists at the Cambridge Mass. startup Quanterix have developed high capacity protein testing micro-chips using sample wells only 2.5 microns in diameter, that are capable of detecting single molecules of a protein in a person's blood. Such chips should bring medicine closer to the holy grail of a quick, comprehensive "snapshot" of all the proteins active in a patient's system at any one time. (via Kurzweilai.net)

An entire field of biology, "Systems Biology" has grown up around such sophisticated tools of data acquisition--combined with complex tools of data analysis. These tools combined with the expertise of human minds to identify the significant findings among the masses of data, provide unprecedented power to biological researchers who are trying to eliminate some of the most burdensome diseases of modern life.

Update 14May08: Brian Wang has more on diagnostic microarrays here.

Venture Capitalists Optimistic in 2008

Venture capitalists are a different breed from the average work-a-day professional and craftstman. Venture capitalists are big money gamblers with a method to their madness. They are professional seers who put their money on the visions they foresee. And in 2008, venture capitalists are looking up.

Four out of five VCs said they expect improving returns in the next five to 10 years. And in the near term, VCs say they expect to raise money at a faster pace even as worries grow that the economic slowdown could become a recession. The net effect: There will be fewer firms, but they will manage larger funds. The market for initial public offerings will continue to improve, most VCs said.

... Investments will increase, VCs say, because of heightened interest in the capital-intensive clean-tech and life-science industries, both of which are perceived to be on the cusp of breakthroughs. Another factor is the accelerating effects of globalization, VCs say.

These industries "will not be exclusively U.S.-based, but have a worldwide platform which will require more time and more capital than ever before," said Mark Heesen, president of the NVCA, which represents about 400 venture and private equity firms. "That said, the other end of the spectrum - seed and early-stage investment and smaller, regionally focused firms - will also be very active, particularly in the Internet and new media spaces."

But for VCs, the global expansion is also causing some hesitation. The survey revealed some skepticism among VCs about the quality of investment opportunities in some developing regions. Twenty-eight percent said they are hesitant about investing more money into China, and 37 percent said they are leery of South America. Eastern Europe raised concern for 17 percent of the venture capitalists surveyed.

... Another reason for bullish attitudes: VCs and the limited partners whose money they invest - pension funds, foundations, university endowments, wealthy individuals and families - are increasingly confident that the tech industry has worked through the lingering effects of the boom-and-bust, which cost investors hundreds of millions of dollars.

Those losses are a prime reason why several venture firms are expected to close shop in 2008. Contrary to the popular image of VCs raking in regular jackpots, the performance of firms varies widely. An NVCA-sponsored report found that the average return on all U.S. venture funding in the five years ending June 30, 2007, was only 4.6 percent, albeit with a stronger showing in the most recent years. The 10-year return, however, was a strong 19 percent - conforming to a history that keeps investors funneling money to VCs.

Source

Of course there are VCs who are in the doldrums--pessimistic. They probably lost more bets than they won recently, and have not shaken it off yet. A VC has to be an optimist to stay in the game.

Given the distinctively unproductive and dysfunctional direction much government sponsored and foundation-sponsored research is heading, we will very much need the contribution of VC funded startups and enterprises in the near to medium future.

Driving the Future: Market vs. Incentive Prizes vs. Government Funding

A better world is waiting for some important breakthroughs in science and technology. Take the space program: NASA is neglecting its space programs, and building a bureaucratic infrastructure devoted to climate change. It is up to private entrepreneurs, X Prizes, venture capitalists, and well-endowed visionaries to push space technology out of its government-financed dead end.

What about medical research?

More than two-thirds of Nobel Prizes in medicine have been awarded to scientists who conceived their award-winning ideas when they were younger than 40. In contrast, the average investigator is now 42 years old when she receives her first independent NIH grant, and NIH grants are typically given to safe, incremental research. This year, only a few million dollars out of the NIH’s $29 Billion budget will be directed to young investigators pursuing high risk, high reward research.

Funding young people to pursue high risk, high reward, opportunities is the basis of venture capital. Over many decades, venture capitalists have learned that the only way to successfully fund potentially game changing ideas is to ignore the percentage of attempts that succeed (“batting average”) and rather focus on trying to hit home runs to optimize portfolio value. Similarly the best way to fund research that has the potential to truly make a difference is to be willing to see the vast majority of funded projects not succeed.

Source

Establishment science--government and foundation supported science, increasingly lacks the home-run potential that is needed. Clone-mind thinking dominates government bureaucracies like the NIH, and large foundations. That is not the type of thinking that is capable of leading. It is strictly a clone-committe-mind. We need better.

Venture capitalists, incentive prizes, and other non-governmental forms of financing allow funds to get to the dark horse candidates, the sleepers. Government and foundation grants and contracts typically go to the "committee-conservative" ideas. Government and foundation bureaucratic decision making has created the climate change monstrosity that diverts huge chunks of the world's resources to chase phantoms residing in the minds of a few powerful but deluded men.

Trillions of dollars are going to waste worldwide, mired in the futile and destructive residue of human power-seeking. The US, in its self-proclaimed role as the world's hegemon and guaranteer of trade routes, is trying to take care of the entire world's needs, as they are perceived, and wastes many hundreds of billions. China and Russia are mired in their own dreams of hegemony and corruption--and waste many hundreds of billions there.

The future of humanity depends upon a clearer vision than appears to exist at the upper levels of governmental, intergovernmental, and non-governmental organisations.

Free markets are not perfect, but compared to decisions made by bureaucratic drones, the market performs well.

The Manhattan Project was a desperate, wartime throw of the dice. It worked. It had to work quickly, and no expense was spared. That kind of power to manipulate resources is far more likely to be misused and abused, than used well, in almost all circumstances. Far more breakthroughs have come from the solitary thinker or researcher, or a small group of collaborators, than from government sponsored mega-projects.