03 June 2011

Germany's Nuclear Phobia is Too Stupid for Words

Dan Yurman has published an excellent review of the German government's decision to close down all of its nuclear power plants by the year 2022. The decision's costs to German society and the German people will be incalculable, and once again call to our attention the fact that ordinary humans have no valid perspective on risk.

The chart below comes from an an article out of the Journal of Physicians and Surgeons, in PDF format. Risks from a wide range of events and phenomena are ranked according to days of lost life expectancy. The risks at top are measured in thousands of days in lost expectancy. As you drop down through the chart, lesser risks are measured in days of lost life expectancy. As you can see, risks from nuclear power occupy the very lowest position -- a small fraction of a single day of lost life expectancy on average -- if calculated by government sources.
Journal of Physicians and Surgeons (US) PDF

And yet, Germany's government and much of the entire nation of Germany has panicked itself into a dangerous and expensive restricting of its own future energy resources. Sometimes government can undo damage that government has done previously -- at least in part. Future German governments will curse what Merkel's government has done, but they will deal with it -- and almost certainly return to nuclear power out of necessity.

But they will be forced to buy massive amounts of power from neighboring countries at much higher rates than would have been necessary if they had preserved their nuclear power resources. And when Germany does choose to go nuclear again, it will have to buy reactors and fuels from other countries -- countries which instead of panicking, chose to develop safer, cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable nuclear reactors.

Cross-posted from Al Fin Energy

We will revisit the issue of risk in the near future, since the abuse and misuse of risk continues to play such a devastating role in governmental, non-governmental, and inter-governmental policymaking in Europe and the Anglosphere.

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3 Comments:

Blogger Bruce Hall said...

Stupidity has its own rewards.

Friday, 03 June, 2011  
Blogger neil craig said...

The nuclear "risk" figure is based on the linear no threshold theory (LNT) which is evidence free and almost certainly wholly wrong. The real nuclear risk is even more non-existent, but this does for any serious argument.

Tuesday, 07 June, 2011  
Blogger The Gray Monk said...

The fear whipped up by Greenpeace here in Germany over nuclear power is backed by their constant showing of film footage they stole of a low level waste storage facility which had been badly managed. They always present it as "High Level" waste "irradiating and contaminating the ground above it."

Fukushima certainly hasn't helped because they are able to convince the gullible that every nuclear plant is a Chernobyl waiting to happen, vulnerable to terrorist attack and to natural disaster. Of course the country can't meet its power needs from wind and solar - but that is what the Greenstrife "experts" have sold - at vast expense to the taxpayer in subsidised panels and windfarms.

Not many people know that these subsidies end up funding Greenstrife and Fiends of the Earth, bot of which are subsidised heavily by the 'renewable power' industry as these are front companies...

Tuesday, 21 June, 2011  

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