23 June 2010

Explosive Reality Behind Climate: Accelerating Uncertainty of Clouds


It turns out that uncertainties in the energetic responses of Earth climate systems are more than 10 times larger than the entire energetic effect of increased CO2.15 If the uncertainty is larger than the effect, the effect itself becomes moot. If the effect itself is debatable, then what is the IPCC talking about? And from where comes the certainty of a large CO2 impact on climate? _Skeptic_via_WUWT

The rapid growth of uncertainty means that GCMs cannot discern an ice age from a hothouse from 5 years away, much less 100 years away
Skeptics are the smart ones in this case, since they understand that the uncertainties in the scientific prediction of future climate are far too large to allow any meaningful prediction. And yet President Obama, the EU, the IPCC, and the kleptocracies of the UN are willing to institute a massive redistribution scheme worth trillions of dollars, based upon "science" which is not really science at all -- merely a belief orthodoxy of interested insiders.
The difficulty is serious even over short times. The inset to Figure 4 shows that after only 20 years, the uncertainty from cloud error is ±22° and for forcing, it’s ±3°. The effect of the ~1% forcing uncertainty alone tells us that a 99% accurate GCM couldn’t discern a new Little Ice Age from a major tropical advance from even 20 years out. Not only are these physical uncertainties vastly larger than the IPCC allows in Figure SPM-5 (Figure 1), but the uncertainties the IPCC allows in Figure SPM-5 aren’t even physical.16

When both the cloud and the forcing uncertainties are allowed to accumulate together, after 5 years the A2 scenario includes a 0.34°C warmer Earth but a ±8.8°C uncertainty. At 10 years this becomes 0.44±15° C, and 0.6±27.7°C in 20 years. By 2100, the projection is 3.7±130°C. From clouds alone, all the IPCC projections have uncertainties that are very much larger than the projected greenhouse temperature increase. What is credible about a prediction that sports an uncertainty 20–40 times greater than itself? After only a few years, a GCM global temperature prediction is no more reliable than a random guess. That means the effect of greenhouse gasses on Earth climate is unpredictable, and therefore undetectable. And therefore moot.

The rapid growth of uncertainty means that GCMs cannot discern an ice age from a hothouse from 5 years away, much less 100 years away. So far as GCMs are concerned, Earth may be a winter wonderland by 2100 or a tropical paradise. No one knows. _Skeptic_via_Wattsupwiththat

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6 Comments:

Blogger Max said...

Yeah well regardless of global warming I think burning coal and oil is harmful , uneconomic and wasteful.

It creates air pollution and destroys environment. Mining operations by itself produce tons of hazardous waste and leave destroyed landscapes behind

Imho all coal and oil fired powerplants should be shutdown ASAP and replaced with nuclear ones.

Wednesday, 23 June, 2010  
Blogger al fin said...

ASAP (for coal to nuclear conversion) may work out to 30 years or more, realistically speaking.

Most people fail to comprehend the massive importance of the fossil fuels infrastructure. Certainly very few people are willing to forego all the advantages they accrue from the use of fossil fuels.

Are they being hypocritical? Everyone is hypocritical, so if they are, they are not distinct in their hypocrisy.

Wednesday, 23 June, 2010  
Blogger Max said...


ASAP (for coal to nuclear conversion) may work out to 30 years or more, realistically speaking.


Well why didn't we start 30 years ago? Or 50 years ago?


Most people fail to comprehend the massive importance of the fossil fuels infrastructure. Certainly very few people are willing to forego all the advantages they accrue from the use of fossil fuels.


I see no advantage in carbon based fossil fuels ( nuclear power is a fossil fuel as well) . If we keep protecting them and rationalizing their use we will be same place we are now .

I would start by holding coal power plants to the same standards regarding radioactive waste as nuclear power plants. - That would make nuclear power most competitive power source instantaneously .

Are they being hypocritical? Everyone is hypocritical, so if they are, they are not distinct in their hypocrisy.

That is very true. Objectivity is something which has to be forced onto human mind, which by default skews and bends reality to fit its preconceived framework

Wednesday, 23 June, 2010  
Blogger George said...

The IPCC is using junk science for their projections.

Where we live (Mojave desert) our weather is much cooler.

The day to day weather predictions from the NWS are mostly wrong.

They need to get a new Magic Eight Ball.

IMHO the UN needs to be replaced by a bent trash can.

Wednesday, 23 June, 2010  
Blogger Cheryl Pass said...

Max...your hysteria is not helpful. Rationalization (not always derogatory) can mean rational reasoning for things. Practicality does not allow our entire civilization to shut down for the sake of funding Al Gore and the IPCC and Maurice Strong, etc. I haven't noticed the perpetrators of this fraud reducing their own carbon footprints one iota...au contraire, they are expanding their energy using lifestyles by the minute while trying to force the rest of the human race to live like cavemen. If you personally wish to live without fossil fuels, then by all means, go right ahead. Who is the hypocrite here?

Al Fin, thank you for this post and continuing to expose the AGW / Climate Change extortion for the fraud it is! Please keep posting this great information!

Wednesday, 23 June, 2010  
Blogger al fin said...

The issue of uncertainty is key to understanding the difficulty of predicting the future, and the need for caution and reticence when doing so.

The IPCC, Al Gore, the EU, the recently defeated Kevin Rudd, and the rest of the pompous fools of the religious orthodoxy and true faith of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming have yet to learn that simple lesson.

How ironic that these fools deride persons of religious faith while themselves possessing one of the most irrational and deeply held faiths of all.

Thursday, 24 June, 2010  

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