The Source of European Fertility, Now and Then

Update 21 March 2010: Blogger Statsaholic has posted a debunking of the two numbered lists below, taken from a comment in Reason magazine.  Sometime after copying the lists, and while putting together this article, it became obvious to me that the lists were wrong.  I decided to post them anyway, along with more primary sources, so that anyone who became suspicious -- as I did almost instantly -- could check them out, debunk them, and have a good laugh on Al Fin.   This blog is not about being an authority who is always right.  Sometimes, known errors -- as long as they are not too blatant -- are allowed into a published article as a type of test for readers.  If you see a mistake, be sure to point it out.  People who are truly intelligent love to be proven wrong, when they actually are wrong. 



There has been some disagreement as to the source of increased fertility in selected European nations. While fertility trends can have many underlying reasons, in this case the primary reason for a rise (or lesser drop) in fertility rates for most European nations with the highest TFRs appears to be immigration of a high-fertility population grouping -- the Muslims.

The following is taken from a comment following this article on Sweden.

Here’s the order of healthiest fertility rates for Western European countries:

1) France
2) Netherlands
3) Belgium
4) Switzerland
5) Austria
6) Germany
7) Italy
8) Spain

And here’s the order with the highest proportion of Muslims:

1) France
2) Netherlands
3) Belgium
4) Switzerland
5) Austria
6) Germany
7) Italy
8) Spain

In 50 years, Europe is going to be filled with two demographic groups: elderly Europeans and Muslims.

Below, you can see a graphical comparison of fertility rates and per cent Muslim population.



Fertility Rates in Europe

Islam in Europe, Wiki


Wiki List of Countries by Muslim Population (2009) data

CIA Factbook Fertility Rates by Country (2009 estimates)

Wiki Islam in Europe

Most advanced nations are experiencing a population crash due to low fertility alone. Russia's population implosion is due to both low fertility and high death rates.

Russia’s life expectancy at birth today is about four years lower than it was forty years ago. Its health reversal is concentrated in the working age groups. This peacetime death explosion has been triggered not by tuberculosis or HIV/AIDS, but by cardiovascular disease and injuries. Alcohol, of course, has played its part: indeed, one Russian study determined that almost half of the young and middle aged men who died of injury or cardiovascular disease were drunk at the time of death. Russians now in their 30s, 40s, or 50s have already accumulated a lifetime of insults to their health. _Source

Europe is based upon the welfare state model, where younger workers support retired persons and persons on welfare and disability. When the younger persons are themselves refusing to work and collecting welfare, Europe's system finds itself under deadly strain, with a diminishing tax base and an exploding government debt.

The US under Obama is experiencing a similar phenomenon, with the exception that the younger generations of Americans -- both native and immigrant -- are slightly more disposed to cultural assimilation and work, than the young incoming Muslim immigrants of Europe.