US Employment Looking Good? Don't Be an Idiot

Small companies historically begin hiring first in a recovery. But this time many economists expect any pickup to be belated and weak. One big reason is the credit crunch's outsize impact on entrepreneurs.

...Cuts in workers' hours are also helping shrink small-company paychecks. When demand picks up, entrepreneurs will pile more work on existing workers rather than hire. "I think you'll see a jobless recovery," says Alter.

One reason could be business owners like Daniel W. Glier, president of Glier's Meats, an 18-person, $3 million sausage maker in Covington, Ky. He's keeping headcount down by restoring some workers' hours that got cut earlier this year. He's also using temps so that if he has to let them go, his unemployment insurance premiums won't rise. "I'm not going to stick my neck out right now and hire people," he says.

The weak recovery is a concern, too. The optimism index compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business has edged up from its March nadir. But at 89.1, the index has been below 90 for six straight quarters. In the 1980-82 recession, it fell below 90 only once. _Business Week

Small businesses are not hiring new workers -- other than seasonal temporary workers. Only government seems to be hiring these days. But how much more of a burden can the sagging US dollar support in terms of a ballooning government payroll and government debt?

Overall, non-farm payroll employment went down by 11,000 in November. The 68,000 jobs that were lost in manufacturing and construction were almost compensated for by the 58,000 jobs gained in the service sector. Essentially, skilled workers who were losing jobs in the manufacturing and construction sectors were taking unskilled jobs in the service sector. _SeekingAlpha

The US remains mired in deep unemployment. Despite the "unemployment rate" dropping from 10.2% to 10.0%, fewer Americans are employed now than were employed at the beginning of November.

# The civilian labor force shrunk by 98,000 in November. The “not in the labor force” group rose by 291,000 in November. To the extent that not all of these individuals voluntarily left the labor force during the month, it is obvious that a large number of “discouraged workers” are included in this statistic. Of the total number of people not in the labor force, the BLS estimates that approximately 5.6 million want a job but are not included in the official unemployment statistic because they have not actively seeking a job.
# Broader measures of unemployment, such as U-6 continue to show very high levels of labor force under-utilization. U-6, which includes marginally attached workers as well as those employed part time due to difficulty finding full time employment, fell to a seasonally adjusted 17.2% in November from 17.5% in October. _SeekingAlpha

The real US unemployment rate is much closer to 20% than to 10%. But you will not be informed of that sad news on any of the Official Obama Zombie News Outlets (OOZNOs). With that many people out of work, the "unhappiness factor" is bound to rise -- despite any number of government job hires, giveaways, bailouts, and symbolic gestures.

The current US Congress and executive branch are truly living in a different world than the average American. Government workers are now making more money on average than private workers, they have better pension guarantees, better benefits packages, and when Obamacabre national health insurance is enacted, government workers will have much better health insurance than will be available to private citizens.

Is it any wonder Mr. Obama suddenly wants to spend some time in Copenhagen? Wanna get away?