In World Demographics Timing is Everything
Despite their many uncertainties, demographic projections have become an essential tool. Governments, international agencies, and private corporations depend on them in planning strategy and making long-term investments. They seek to estimate such things as the number of pensioners, the cost of health care, and the size of the labor force many years into the future. But the detailed statistical work of demographers tends to seep out to the general public in crude form, and sensationalist headlines [and sometimes wishful thinking _AF] soon become common wisdom. _WilsonQuarterly"The World's New Numbers" by Martin Walker is an ambitious article-length look at the coming world demographics of the 21st century. Part fact and part wishful thinking, it is nonetheless worth a look for anyone who wants to know how the world's changing demographics will affect the balance of power -- and thus the future of humankind.
It is important for the interested onlooker to understand that populations trends -- like weather forecases -- are only informed guesses. When political entities [such as the UN] get involved in predicting populations and climates, the credibility of the predictions falls precipitously. Take this bit of political wishful thinking:
The decline of Muslim birthrates is a global phenomenon. Most analysts have focused on the remarkably high proportion of people under age 25 in the Arab countries, which has inspired some crude forecasts about what this implies for the future. Yet recent UN data suggest that Arab birthrates are falling fast, and that the number of births among women under the age of 20 is dropping even more sharply. Only two Arab countries still have high fertility rates: Yemen and the Palestinian territories. _WQAnyone with an understanding of human population dynamics knows enough not to bet against the urge of youngsters to mate, and procreate. If a country does indeed have a high proportion of young people under the age of 25, predicting a steady drop in fertility rates for the foreseeable future is an exercise in self-blinding. An interesting visual rendering of a country's age distribution is its population pyramid. A bottom-heavy (more young people) population pyramid points toward a higher fertility rate than a top-heavy (more old people) population pyramid, as a rule of thumb.
Whatever the underlying reasons for the apparent trends on demographics for any specific country, those reasons are subject to change at very short notice. Extreme affluence or extreme poverty can both suppress fertility. Most of the world's peoples live well within the extremes, and might well experience upward and/or downward movement multiple times within a lifespan. Such fluctuations in well-being may appear insignificant to a distant observer, but make all the difference in the world in a person's fertility plans.
It is with the ongoing demographic transformation of Europe, that the author of the WQ piece appears to exercise the greatest amount of denial and wishful thinking.
Defying predictions of demographic decline, northern Europeans have started having more babies. Britain and France are now projecting steady population growth through the middle of the century. _WQThe author admits that a sizeable (eg 80% or more for the US) amount of increase in fertility is due to immigration, but almost immediately denies that immigration is the main cause of Europe's "quasi-increase." If 30% of the increase in Western Europe's fertility is due to immigrants from Eastern Europe, it is likely that at least 50% is due to Muslim immigrants who originate within far more fecund populations than those of Eastern Europe.
Anyone who claims that European women are increasing their fertility in any meaningful way, must account for the ever higher proportion of Muslims in the labour and delivery wards of Europe, in the schools of Europe, and every other institution catering to the young and very young. Certainly the population pyramid of Muslims in Europe looks considerably different than the population pyramid of indigenous Europeans. Why all the denial?
In terms of IQ transformation, the average European IQ is 100, compared with an average middle eastern population IQ of 85, and an average Sub-Saharan African IQ of 70 to 75. Certainly the brainpower portion of Europe's human capital is undergoing a significant change. Far fewer scientists, engineers, architects, physicians, dentists, or patent attorneys to be sure, even taking into account the ongoing brain drain from the third world.
The only populations that will be able to drive the future, will be the populations with a high enough "smart fraction" to field the majour league players in the intellectual disciplines. It is uncertain how well Europe will be able to hold up under the onslaught of third world bodies.
In world demographics, timing is everything. The west shut down its baby-making apparatus a full generation or two before the emerging world. And the emerging world is a generation or two ahead of the third world on that score. It is no good taking comfort from a trend that is happening too late to save you.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.
Labels: demographic change
posted by al fin at 12:40 pm
4 Comments:
Looking at the graph it looks more like a curve leading up to IQs of 95 & flat beyond that. It may be that the statistical population is too small to draw that definite a line.
I suspect the relationship between IQ and GDP -- corrected for systems of law and economy -- is not linear, but is rather exponential. It is difficult to see that relationship due to the current low average intelligence of all human populations, and due to confounding by oppressive, corrupt, and inefficient governments and economic systems.
The report is credible about the fall of the birthrate in Muslim countries. The fall in Saudi Arabia is large (from 7 to 3.2 babies/woman from 1970 to now). There is nothing that force Muslims, Arabs or not, to have many children. Economy hit them as hit us. Something is happening there, but we have very few informations, so it is difficult to asses what is happening under the surface of the water.
A recent census in Denmark show that M.E. immigrants of second generations have less children than Danes (something 1.8 against 1.9). This is not so strange. Europeans live in urban settings in great majority by one century or more, where the Muslims urbanized only recently. In urban settings people can not have as much children as in the countryside if they are not wealthy.
Could be that we are seeing the same phenomenon that happened in England and selected the "capitalism gene"? Only faster and on a larger scale.
Muslims could have grew faster than the western, but they have also use so many resources that they have not many reserves. What happen when you grow so fast that you deplete your sources of food, water and wealth?
Near all M.E. governments have programs aimed to reduce the fecundity of the populations. If they are doing this, they were and are in deep problems. And they know this.
I found this on Google Books:
Arab Political Demography: Population growth and natalist policies
Onn Winckler
Another point is that the data of the census in Saudi Arabia and other countries of the M.E. are dubious.
"The Surprising Results of the Saudi Arabian 2004 Demographic Census"
Interesting, EP. And adjacent to Saudi Arabia is Yemen, prolific land of outlaws, pirates, rebels, and terrorists.
Back in the 7th century, Arabs began spreading out when the few oases became strained. Now, Europe is accepting the overflow without complaint.
I keep trying to remind people that it is not intelligent to assume that any particular trend they observe will continue indefinitely. In fact, as slow as reliable statistics are to be compiled, many of the trends that academics so confidently declare have already reversed themselves undoubtedly.
Statistics of trends can be quite an unreliable prop.
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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell
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