Irrational Exhuberance? Perhaps a Little
The current economic contretemps is a forceful reminder against blind extrapolation of present trends. Those who remember other recent discontinuities such as the 9/11 attacks and the dot.com crisis -- among others -- should remember not to fall too quickly for "gee whiz!" futuristic monomania.
Eventually, after we sweep up the messes made by Pelosi, Obama, Putin, and others, humans may be back on track for some type of singularity, or choice-expanding discontinuity.
Don't expect mind uploading or human-level machine intelligence for a number of decades. When mind uploading becomes possible, don't be surprised if the destination architecture has nothing in common with what we currently think of as computers.
Expect to be surprised, in both good and bad ways. Prepare for both. That way you can move as quickly over the bad as possible, to savour the good.
H/T Open Culture
Labels: futurism
posted by al fin at 5:22 pm
2 Comments:
US/UK external debt: unsustainable.
Japan has finally won from the US, as it may now enter it's third Lost Decade. I think it's unsustainable.
Pensions/laying off people at 55: unsustainable.
Present Global Financial Crisis: unsustainable.
I don't expect a solution to the GFC from within the financial world. The problem here is that the disclaimer for, say, financial products does not only to apply to positive past experiences, but to negative ones as well. If this is a never-seen-before crash, then all knowledge gained from prvious crises is worthless. What if the way ahead is "ghee wiz futuristic monomania"? I don't expect a solution from within the financial world.
Go read Black Swan again. Sorry. I really, really appreciate your blog, the things you're interested in.
Yes, I agree that it is all unsustainable.
Unless one actually understands how the different parts of the world will pick themselves back up and rebuild their worlds, a certain amount of faith is involved.
I have no faith in the future creating itself. People have to do it.
History is full of amazing technologies and ideas being lost for centuries only to be rediscovered in another time and another place.
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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell
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