Will Communist China Survive to 2014?

An astute analyst must always look beneath the surface of a culture, society, nation, civilisation. Pay attention not to what the ruling class is claiming, but rather to the underlying reality they may be attempting to obscure.

Take the case of mainland China. On the surface, the economy is booming and destined to surpass that of the US within the next decade. But what is really happening, behind the curtain?

China, it turns out, isn't a $10-trillion economy on the brink of catching up with the United States. It is a $6-trillion economy, less than half our size. For the foreseeable future, China will have far less money to spend on its military and will face much deeper social and economic problems at home than experts previously believed.

What happened to $4 trillion in Chinese gross domestic product?....Statistics.

Fall of China

AP writes that “The World Bank said the economies of China and India are about 40 percent smaller than earlier estimates after it revised calculations using consumers' relative purchasing power to measure economic might.

The new figures released by the World Bank on Monday differ from conventional GDP figures, which are calculated by simply converting local statistics into US dollars - but don't take into account the wide variations in the purchasing power of a dollar from country to country. …

Under the new estimates, the number of Chinese living on less than $1 a day …is nearly 300 million. The earlier estimates put that figure at 100 million. …”

Source

It is a matter of playing with numbers. But regardless of how you calculate relative purchasing power, you absolutely must pay attention to the ominous signs of impending collapse within China's corrupt and hastily constructed infrastructure.

A recent Nanowerk scenario projected the Chinese Communist government collapsing in the year 2014, from inner turmoil. It is difficult to predict such catastrophic dissolutions. During the 20th century, most communist governments collapsed of their own incompetence and corruption. China has moved away from central planning--to some extent--which is one reason why so much foreign investment has flooded into the country. But that investment could easily dry up as quickly as it began.

The widespread poverty, pollution, corruption, incompetence, and unresponsiveness to the average persons' concerns, suggest a dark future for China's current regime. If China is to collapse, it will not be the way the Nanowerk scenario projects.

China's long history of warlordism--competing governments situated on the mainland--suggests that China will schism into several pieces. Each piece will be controlled by strongman rule. The piece of China closest to Siberia will almost certainly move to annex a large piece of Russian East Siberia. The table is already set for such a move Other warlords will likely move to assert dominance wherever they can.

When the dissolution of China occurs, a similar dissolution of Russia is almost inevitable. Russia lacks the manpower and conventional military might to prevent it.

Which is where the danger of apocalypse truly begins. Lacking a conventional deterrent to prevent its Siberian treasure chest from being taken by warlords from China and central Asia, Russia will be tempted to execute nuclear strikes--tactical at first--to stop the land-grab. If tactical strikes are ineffective, strategic missiles targeted to the population centers for the invading forces would follow. Then Pandora's box would open completely.

Putin believes he is being clever by upgrading his nuclear force, to back up his global power plays. He is clearly not a discerning student of history and historical forces that drive mass human action.

The scenario will continue--perhaps sooner than any of us wish.