12 May 2006

Global Collapsism: Threats to Survival--How Do They Rank?

Everyone has an "end of the world" scenario. All the world's religions have one. There is more than a little "religious residue" in many of the secular end of the world scenarios floating around. Seriously, how would you rank the threats? Look at some different ideological perspectives and try to understand what motivates their concerns.

Captain Dave's Survival Center, a right of center survival website, provides this ranking:
  1. Terrorism at home and abroad.
  2. Middle east conflict going out of control.
  3. Nuclear Proliferation
  4. Economic disruption from resource shortages [oil, metals, etc].
  5. Contagious diseases.
  6. Others [regional threats]
Captain Dave gives an overall risk rating for TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it) as 63, on a scale of 0 to 100, with 0 being no threat and 100 being absolute teotwawki.

Nick Bostrom, guru of transhumanism, provides an interesting assessment of existential risks that overlaps somewhat with the above list, with interesting differences. The rankings provided below are my interpretation of Nick's rankings. Read the article for a more nuanced presentation.
  1. Deliberate misuse of nanotechnology.
  2. Nuclear holocaust.
  3. Shutdown of simulation [a joke]
  4. Superintelligence gone amuk.
  5. Genetically engineered super-plague
  6. Nanotech accident [gray goo]
  7. Unforeseen
  8. Emergent plague of natural origin
  9. Comet or asteroid impact
  10. Runaway global warming
  11. Resource depletion or eco-doom
  12. World government tyranny [muslim caliphate etc]
  13. Dysgenics
There is much more at the source.


Leftist academic Dylan Evans published an article in the Guardian Unlimited, titled "A Risk of Total Collapse." His three listed risks were these:
  1. Climate Change
  2. Resource Depletion
  3. Population Imbalance

Anarchist Greens go even further, not only recommending that adherents prepare for the collapse, but actually encouraging them to help bring about the collapse itself. Here is a list from one such website.
  1. End of Cheap Energy [peak oil] with Infrastructure Failure
  2. Decline of Industrial Agriculture with Famines
  3. Currency Collapse and Economic Depression
  4. Disease Epidemics
  5. Climate Change with extreme unpredictable weather

This is just a quick assortment of various views of end of the world catastrophes. Many religions [Islam, Christianity etc] have legends of messianic visitations in the end of time, bringing about teotwawki. The Economist provides A Brief History of the end of the world that may bring a smile.

Your world is certain to end. Certainly the devout christians who prepared for the many end of the world predictions of the messiah back in the 19th century, are all dead. Their worlds did end, for them. So it will be for you--something will end your world eventually. We at Al Fin blog will leave it to you to decide what precautions to take.

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1 Comments:

Blogger George said...

I don't think the shutting down of our simulation was meant as a joke. It's an interesting existential and philosophical conundrum.

Read more here:
http://www.simulation-argument.com/

Monday, 23 April, 2007  

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