Peak Oil--What to Make of It?

Peak Oil is a controversial topic. First we lead off with a posting from mises.org entitled "The Myth of Peak Oil." Then from the herd perspective, Wikipedia has an article on Hubble Peak Theory which is fairly informative, in a typical journalistic and conventional thinking way.

Next, we have this intriguing viewpoint from an economist, who suggests that if the doomseekers of Peak Oil actually believed what they were predicting, they could make a huge fortune in oil futures trading. That article was linked to inside this comment. The comment appeared under this kuro5hin posting on peak oil. As usual with kuro5hin, there is a full complement of comments.

One of my favorite blogs dealing with this issue is Peak Oil Debunked, listed on the right side-bar. This blog discusses various economic and technological issues that impact upon peak oil. Most people who are problem solvers by nature will start thinking about alternative energy sources to relieve the possible harsh impact of higher oil prices that come with a supply/demand mismatch. The Debunking blog is a problem solving blog. Another favorite blog on energy topics is The Energy Blog. This is another blog with an emphasis on problem solving.


Doomseekers, on the other hand, want to see the fall of civilisation--and nothing less will do, thank you. The doomseekers are extremely confident in their predictions of doom, but somehow fail to put their money where there mouths are. That failing tends to subtract somewhat from their credibility. That, and the dismal record of dooms prediction over the past half century or so, from doomseekers of all political persuasions.

Personally, I expect oil prices to fluctuate wildly over the next ten years, with an upward (six months running) average price trend over that time period. That will make it difficult to time futures contracts, although there are many ways that both commodoties and stock investments can be made to pay in that type of market.

What would a next level human think about peak oil? He would not think about it, it would not bear thinking about. Oil is a primitive energy source, and even between level humans should be ashamed at their dependence on oil. The really big sources of energy are the sun, the earth's core, fusion, and probably quite a few others we are simply too stupid to know about. Stupidity is not a crime, but it is its own punishment.