02 February 2012

You Don't Bring Me Flowers Anymore

Japan is dying, and it has nothing to do with the Fukushima nuclear plant that was demolished by a massive earthquake and tsunami. Japan's death is due to debt and demographics -- the two twin demons of destruction sweeping through many of the world's most advanced nations, from Asia to Europe to North America.
Japan's Demographic and Debt Crisis

As many as 1/3 of Japan's population will disappear by the year 2060, due to low birthrates.
In year 2060, Japan will have 87 million people. The number of people 65 or older will nearly double to 40 percent, while the national work force of people between ages 15 and 65 will shrink to about half of the total population, according to the estimate, made by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. The total fertility rate, or the expected number of children born per woman during lifetime, in 2060 is estimated at 1.35, down from 1.39 in 2010 — well below more than 2 needed to keep the country’s population from declining. But the average Japanese will continue to live longer. The average life expectancy for 2060 is projected at 90.93 for women, up from 86.39 in 2010, and 84.19 years for men, up from 79.64 years. _TimesHerald
Young men and women of Japan seem to have lost interest in romantic relationships. Young men see relationships as "taking too much effort," and young women see contemporary young Japanese males as being "unmanly, mere boys."
A startling number of Japanese youths have turned their backs on sex and relationships, a new survey has found.

The survey, conducted by the Japan Family Planning Association, found that 36% of males aged 16 to 19 said that they had "no interest" in or even "despised" sex. That's almost a 19% increase since the survey was last conducted in 2008.

If that's not bad enough, The Wall Street Journal reports that a whopping 59% of female respondents aged 16 to 19 said they were uninterested in or averse to sex, a near 12% increase since 2008.

The survey paints a bleak picture for Japan's aging population. _Japan Population Decline
If Japan's population fades away, what happens to the massive (but deeply in debt) Japanese economy? Will Chinese immigrants, fleeing a collapsing China, fill the gap?

Hundreds of millions of China's floating population are living in dire poverty, exploited by a startlingly wealthy Chinese elite, ignored by the Chinese social support system. This huge population of dispossessed people are at least partially responsible for the massive buying of gold in China. You can carry gold with you when you flee your home country, you see.


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Blogger kurt9 said...

If Japan's population fades away, what happens to the massive (but deeply in debt) Japanese economy? Will Chinese immigrants, fleeing a collapsing China, fill the gap?

Well, one does see more Chinese people on the Yamanote Line these days than in the 90's.

Thursday, 02 February, 2012  
Blogger Alex said...

If any method to seriously intervene with the aging process is brought about in the coming decades, the problem could be dealt with.

Reduce the death rate enough and it will eventually match whatever birth rate remains*(as birth rate normally can't be zero.)

Saturday, 04 February, 2012  
Blogger al fin said...

Kurt: You can always tell them from their Mao hats. ;-)

Alex: Hmmm. Perhaps by the year 2050, or later? Japan, Russia, and a handful of European nations will have been done for by then.

Demographic change and turnover wait for no technological breakthrough.

Sunday, 05 February, 2012  

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