30 January 2012

Global Cooling: A Return to the Age of a Frozen Thames?

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century. _DailyMail
A Frozen Thames During Little Ice Age DailyMail

Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.
We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ – which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th Century.

...According to a paper issued last week by the Met Office, there is a 92 per cent chance that both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the following decades will be as weak as, or weaker than, the ‘Dalton minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. In this period, named after the meteorologist John Dalton, average temperatures in parts of Europe fell by 2C.

However, it is also possible that the new solar energy slump could be as deep as the ‘Maunder minimum’ (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between 1645 and 1715 in the coldest part of the ‘Little Ice Age’ when, as well as the Thames frost fairs, the canals of Holland froze solid. _DailyMail
Using the Livingston and Penn Solar Cycle 25 amplitude estimate, this is what the solar cycle record is projected to look like:
Slowing Sun, Cooling Climate WUWT

And, yes, that means the end of the Modern Warm Period. _WUWT David Archibald
Normal Temperature Fluctuation Daily Mail

This graph indicates what global temperatures have done since 1997. Rather than shooting skyward as the "hockey stick" graphs of IPCC fame predicted, temperatures have rather plateau'd, and may be trending downward.
400 Years of Sunspots DailyMail
It is too early to predict whether the sun is approaching a multi-decadal "Dalton Minimum" type decline in activity, or whether it may be on the verge of a more extended "Maunder Minimum" type decline. The difference between the two could be quite important, and solar physicists and astronomers are beginning to take notice.

On the global climate front, ocean scientists are already beginning to note that improved ocean heat content measurements are failing to confirm high priced computer climate models.
WUWT Ocean Temps Diverge From Model Predictions

Because ocean temperatures exhibit a "thermal flywheel effect," ocean temperatures can continue to gradually warm for some time after incoming solar energy has declined. Water, with a 4X higher specific heat than air, takes longer to reverse a temperature trend.

Of course there is a lot more going on with the climate than solar cycles. But thanks to the impressive solar changes that we are witnessing, we may be closer to seeing who the big boss of the climate truly is.

But since many hundreds of billions of dollars in carbon taxes, carbon trades, carbon reparations, and carbon hysteria oriented research are at stake, do not expect the orthodoxy of climate alarmism to take all of this lying down, frozen Thames or no frozen Thames.

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Blogger Whirlwind22 said...


Article rebutting the recent Wall Street Journal Article on Climate Change.

Monday, 30 January, 2012  
Blogger Whirlwind22 said...

Man peak oil, climate change etc. Its all so much to worry about.

Monday, 30 January, 2012  
Blogger Matt M said...

I recommend, The Last Centurian by John Ringo. It tells the story of an army unit left behind in the middle east to guard a stock pile of material - while the US attempts to deal with a flu pandemic and a new mini-ice age.

Of course, as the Ice Age freezes crops and people - the Govt continues to implement it's anti-Global Warming policies.

It's an action packed and insightful account.

Monday, 30 January, 2012  
Blogger al fin said...

Matt: It reminded me a bit of the Anabasis by Xenophon.

Monday, 30 January, 2012  
Blogger Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...


I also read Ringo's book (first one of his I have ever read). I thought it would make a great mini-series, if anyone had the balls to produce it.

Monday, 30 January, 2012  
Blogger Ene said...

The beauty of when working on complex systems modelling you always have an ace in your sleeve. You pick 20 parameters that you find relevant and in retrospective when something happens that shouldn't you claim "it's the Sun's minimum energy output", "it's the oceans"...
The fact that in most complex systems, from economics to climate change we only have a small subset of parameters that are relevant for evolution of these systems.
Let me give you an example. Let's try to predict the next football match, we have lot of the past statistics and we want to know how will Manchester United vs Manchester City end up.
From this and the past seasons we know that Manchester United has high home win ration, they are a strong attacking/defensive team, they won last years championship and are one of the favorites for this year.
The game ends 1-6 for Manchester City. Which model would give such prediction?
Football match is by far less complex event than climate change or economics.
Yet these scientists have a "consensus". We don't have a consensus about quantum physics, the most accurate theory in history of science, but when it comes to infinitly more complex systems we have a consensus about the outcome.
If we ever come to some kind of state of higher knowledge in couple of hundred of years we'll look at economists and climate change scientists as we do now the experts in magic from 12th century.

Sunday, 05 February, 2012  
Blogger david lewis said...

Your choice of who and what to believe on climate science is as reasonable as the choices anti nuclear people make when they choose who and what to believe about nuclear power.

The leading people in every national science academy in the world accept what you say is total bullshit. It isn't just the one scientific discipline, i.e. climatology. Its the senior people in the worldwide enterprise of science. Unlike the "leading climate scientists" mentioned in your quoted story from The Mail, these ones have names which they've signed at the bottom of documents, i.e. such as the G8+5 Academies Joint Statement http://www.scj.go.jp/ja/info/kohyo/pdf/kohyo-21-s1.pdf

Saturday, 11 February, 2012  
Blogger al fin said...

Ah, but unlike the climate scientologists which you defer to, I am willing to allow reality to have the last word.

You may eventually choose to do the same, unless your livelihood depends upon climate hyperbole as theirs does.

Saturday, 11 February, 2012  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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